Salmon Final [Read-Only] Panel.pdf · Source: ABG Sundal Collier, June 2012, as used in a...

SALMON

0

THE SALMON PANEL

DENNIS GUHLKE GUNNAR KNAPP

MARCY BEMILLER ROGER BING JOHN GARNER TERJE MARTINUSSEN

KEY TRENDS IN GLOBALSALMON MARKETS

• Steep growth in farmed Atlantic supply, driven by Chile and Norway

• Steep decline in farmed Atlantic prices Spring 2011-Summer 2012; prices now stabilizing/rebounding

• Lower wild salmon harvests in 2012• Wild salmon prices generally pulled downwards by

farmed prices

2

ESTIMATED WORLD SALMON SUPPLY

3

Sources: Farmed salmon: 1980-2010: FAO Fishstat J database; 2011-2012: Kontali AnalyseWild salmon: 1980-2009: FAO Fishstat J database; 2010-2011: Kontali Analyse

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,00019

8019

8119

8219

8319

8419

8519

8619

8719

8819

8919

9019

9119

9219

9319

9419

9519

9619

9719

9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0720

0820

0920

1020

1120

12

MET

RIC

TO

NS

Estimated Global Salmon Supply

Wild (All SpeciesCombined)

Wild Coho &ChinookWild Sockeye

Wild Chum

Wild Pink

Farmed Coho &ChinookFarmed Atlantic

WORLD FARMED ATLANTIC SALMON SUPPLY

4

Source: Kontali Analyse

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

MT

World Supply of Farmed Atlantic SalmonChile Norway All Other Countries


5


0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

MT


US MONTHLY SALMON IMPORTS

6

Source: National Marine Fisheries Service

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000Ja

n-00

Jan-

01

Jan-

02

Jan-

03

Jan-

04

Jan-

05

Jan-

06

Jan-

07

Jan-

08

Jan-

09

Jan-

10

Jan-

11

Jan-

12

MT

US Monthly Salmon Imports, by Product

Atlantic fresh fillets Atlantic frozen fillets Atlantic fresh (non-fillet)Nonspecified frozen fillets All other salmon products

AVERAGE US IMPORT PRICES

7


$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

$4.50

$5.00

$5.50

$6.00

Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13

$/lb

Average US Import Prices

ChileanFrozenAtlanticFillets

ChileanFreshAtlanticFillets

CanadianFreshFarmedAtlantic

ATLANTIC SALMON PRICE TRENDS

8

Sources: Urner Barry; Statistics Norway

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

$/lb

Price Trends for Selected Atlantic Salmon ProductsFOB Miami Fillet ($/lb) Norway average fresh export price ($/lb)Fob Seattle (Head-On) ($/lb)

Prices have trended

upwards since September; (relatively more in

Europe than in the US)

ESTIMATED WORLD SALMON SUPPLY

9

Sources: Farmed salmon: 1980-2010: FAO Fishstat J database; 2011-2012: Kontali AnalyseWild salmon: 1980-2009: FAO Fishstat J database; 2010-2011: Kontali Analyse

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,00019

8019

8119

8219

8319

8419

8519

8619

8719

8819

8919

9019

9119

9219

9319

9419

9519

9619

9719

9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0720

0820

0920

1020

1120

12

MET

RIC

TO

NS

Estimated Global Salmon Supply

Farmed Atlantic

Farmed Coho &Chinook

Wild (All SpeciesCombined)

Wild Coho &Chinook

Wild Sockeye

Wild Chum

Wild Pink

ALASKA SALMON HARVESTS

10

Source: Alaska Department of Fish and Game

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,00019

90

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

MT

Alaska Wild Salmon HarvestsSockeye Pink Chum Coho Chinook

SALMON PANEL DISCUSSION TOPICS

1. Atlantic salmon global supply growth and market response2. Chilean farmed salmon outlook3. Asian market developments and implications4. Wild Alaska salmon market developments5. US salmon market issues

11

1. ATLANTIC SALMON SUPPLY GROWTH AND MARKET RESPONSE

• Global market• Dramatic long-term increases in both supply and demand• Markets diversifying• Price responsive

12


13


0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

MT


MAIN ATLANTIC SALMON CONSUMERSESTIMATES FOR 1998 AND 2011

14

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, June 2012, as used in a presentation by Aquachile

Thousand tons WFE

As farmed Atlantic salmon production has grown, end markets have diversified dramatically

Russia up from 12 to 147South America up from 8 to 45

NORWEGIAN ATLANTIC SALMON EXPORTS

15


0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

2011 2012

MET

RIC

TO

NS

WFE

Norwegian Atlantic Salmon Exports, 2011 & 2012

OtherOther Far EastJapanUSARussiaOther EuropeOther EUPolandDenmarkFrance

CHILEAN ATLANTIC SALMON EXPORTS

16


0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

Total 2011 Total 2012

MET

RIC

TO

NS

WFE

Chilean Atlantic Salmon Exports, January-October 2011 & 2012

OtherEUFar EastBrazilUSA

FRESH FILLET IMPORTS & PRICES

17

Source: National Marine Fisheries Service, Urner Barry. Note: Last month is Sept 2012.

$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

PR

ICE

($/lb

)

MT

(100

0)

US Fresh Atlantic Fillets Monthly Imports & Prices

Total fresh filletimports

Urner-Barry price,Fresh ChileanAtlantic fillets, C-Trim, FOB Miami,3-4 lbs

Average importprice, Chileanfresh fillets

AS US IMPORTS OF CHILEAN FILLETS FELL AND PRICES ROSE, NORWAY FILLED MUCH OF THE

SHORTFALL

18


0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

Jan- 00 Jan- 01 Jan- 02 Jan- 03 Jan- 04 Jan- 05 Jan- 06 Jan- 07 Jan- 08 Jan- 09 Jan- 10 Jan- 11 Jan- 12

MET

RIC

TO

NS

US Monthly Fresh Atlantic Salmon Fillet Imports, by Product

All Other

Faroe Islands

Norway

Chile

ATLANTIC SALMON SUPPLY GROWTH AND MARKET RESPONSE: QUESTIONS . . .

• How have traditional markets responded to lower prices and higher supply?- New product forms? New distribution channels?

• How did European and American retailers react to lower market pricing?- Lower costs passed on to consumers?- Impacts on consumption?

• Why are prices rising faster in Europe than in the US?• How did higher supply and lower prices impact new market

development?• How are producers differentiating themselves in a difficult

environment?

19

2. CHILEAN FARMED SALMON OUTLOOK

• Short-term projections for continued growth?• But prices below production costs?• Market diversification significant and critical

20

CHILEAN ATLANTIC SALMON SUPPLY

21


0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

MT

WFE

Chilean Market Supply of Farmed Atlantic Salmon

CHILEAN ATLANTIC FILLET PRICES

22

Source: Kontali Analyse, Urner Barry

$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12

$/lb

Chilean Atlantic Fillet Average FOB Export Prices

FOB MiamiPrice, C-Trimfillets, 2-3 lbs

FOB saverageexport price,fresh salmonfillets

FOB averageexport price,frozen salmonfillets

23

Source: Presentation at 2011 Global Seafood Marketing Conference

ESTIMATED COST RANGE FOR CHILEAN PRODUCTION

CHILEAN ATLANTIC SALMON EXPORTS

24

Source: Kontali Analyse, reporting Chilean trade data

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

Total2011

Total2012

Fresh2011

Fresh2012

Freshfillets2011

Freshfillets2012

Frozen2011

Frozen2012

FrozenFillets2011

FrozenFillets2012

MET

RIC

TO

NS

WFE

Chilean Atlantic Salmon Exports, January-October 2011 & 2012

Other

EU

Far East

Brazil

USA

CHILEAN FARMED SALMON OUTLOOK: QUESTIONS . . .

• What will happen with Chilean Atlantic supply in 2013 and beyond?

• Will financial challenges disrupt Chilean supply or otherwise impact US Atlantic fillet imports from Chile?

• Have new regulations fixed the problems that caused the ISA crisis?

• Are the regulatory changes done or will more follow?• Looking ahead, how will the number of Chilean salmon

producers change?

25

3. ASIAN MARKET DEVELOMENTS AND IMPLICATIONS

• Japan a mirror image of other salmon markets- Very high per capita consumption- Demand not growing, may be falling- Exacerbates sensitivity to over-supply

• Very rapid growth in Chinese reprocessing now slowing?

• Dramatic potential in domestic Chinese market?

26

JAPANESE FROZEN SALMON IMPORTS

27

Source: Japanese import data. Coho and trout import data not available for 2012; 2012 data estimated from Chilean monthly exports.

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000


MET

RIC

TO

NS

Japanese Monthly Imports of Frozen Coho, Trout and Sockeye

SockeyeTroutCoho

JAPANESE WHOLESALE PRICES

28

Source: FIS Japanese frozen market prices

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

$4.50


Tokyo Wholesale Prices for Imported Frozen Salmon(converted to $/lb)

Alaska sockeye Chilean coho Chilean trout

EXCHANGE RATES

29

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

$1.00

$1.05

$1.10

$1.15

$1.20

$1.25

$1.30

$1.35

$1.40

$1.45

$1.50

Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13

Exchange Rates for the Japanese Yen and the Euro

Value of100 Japaneseyenin dollars

Value of1 Euroin dollars

US EXPORTS TO CHINA

30

Source: National Marine Fisheries Service. Note: Data are for May-April “salmon year.”

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

met

ric to

nsUnited States Exports of Frozen Salmon to China

Frozensockeye

Frozen chum

Frozen Pink

ASIAN MARKET DEVELOMENTS AND IMPLICATIONS: QUESTIONS . . .

• How is the Japanese salmon market changing, and how does it affect the US market?

• How is the Chinese salmon market changing and what does the future hold? - Reprocessing- Domestic consumption

31

4. WILD ALASKA SALMON MARKET DEVELOPMENTS

• Five different species!• Wide fluctuations in harvests from year-to-year• 2013 harvests likely lower; difficult/impossible to predict accurately• Multiple product forms

- Frozen H&G & fillets, Fresh, Canned, Roe• Product shares and markets vary widely by species

- Annual shifts in response to market conditions• Important recent trends:

- Declining exports to Japan- Growing production for US and EU markets- Growing frozen exports to China for reprocessing

• 2012 prices down for frozen & fresh, up for canned and roe

32

ALASKA SALMON HARVESTS

33

Source: Alaska Department of Fish and Game

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,00019

90

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

MT

Alaska Wild Salmon HarvestsSockeye Pink Chum Coho Chinook

ALASKA SOCKEYE SALMON PRODUCTION

34

Source: Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Commercial Operator Annual Reports

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

THO

US

AN

DS

OF

PO

UN

DS

Alaska Sockeye Salmon Production, by ProductFrozen Fresh Canned Other

ALASKA PINK SALMON PRODUCTION

35


0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

THO

USA

ND

S O

F PO

UN

DS

Alaska Pink Salmon Production, by Product

OtherCannedFreshFrozen

ALASKA CHUM SALMON PRODUCTION

36


0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

THO

US

AN

DS

OF

PO

UN

DS

Alaska Chum Salmon Production, by Product

Frozen Fresh Canned Other

FROZEN SOCKEYE END MARKETS

37

Note: Estimates are for May-April “salmon year.” USA end market volume estimated by subtracting exports from reported Alaska production, and should be considered only approximate. Sources: Alaska Department of Fish & Game Commercial Operator Annual Report data; NMFS Fisheries Trade Data.

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

MT

Estimated End Markets: Alaska Frozen Sockeye

USA Japan EU Canada China Other countries

FROZEN PINK END MARKETS

38


0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

MT

Estimated End Markets: Alaska Frozen Pink

USA China Thailand Other countries

FROZEN CHUM END MARKETS

39


0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

MT

Estimated End Markets: Alaska Frozen ChumUSA China EU Other countries

ALASKA FROZEN H&G PRICES

40

Source: Alaska Department of Revenue, Alaska Salmon Price Reports

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep

Alaska Wild Salmon Average First Wholesale Prices: Frozen H&GSockeye Coho Pink Chum

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

ALASKA FROZEN FILLET PRICES

41

Source: Alaska Department of Revenue, Alaska Salmon Price Reports

$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep

Alaska Wild Salmon Average First Wholesale Prices: Frozen Fillets

Sockeye Coho Chum

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

WILD ALASKA SALMON MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: QUESTIONS . . .

• How will Alaska harvests change in 2013—and how will the changes affect markets?

• What’s going on with MSC certification of Alaska salmon—and how will it affect Alaska’s domestic and international markets?

• Why weren’t 2012 wild sockeye prices affected more by lower Atlantic salmon pricing?

• How do shifts in product forms affect wild salmon pricing and markets?

42

5. US SALMON MARKET ISSUES

• Dominated by farmed Atlantic salmon- Wild salmon < 1/3 of fresh & frozen supply

• Consumption declined after 2007, only now returning to levels of mid-2000s

43

US MONTHLY SALMON IMPORTS

44


0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000Ja

n-00

Jan-

01

Jan-

02

Jan-

03

Jan-

04

Jan-

05

Jan-

06

Jan-

07

Jan-

08

Jan-

09

Jan-

10

Jan-

11

Jan-

12

MT

US Monthly Salmon Imports, by Product

Atlantic fresh fillets Atlantic frozen fillets Atlantic fresh (non-fillet)Nonspecified frozen fillets All other salmon products

APPROXIMATE US SALMON SUPPLY

45

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

MT

Approximate US Fresh & Frozen Salmon Supply(Product Weight)

Imports-Farmed Atlantic fresh fillets Imports-Farmed Atlantic frozen filletsImports-Farmed Atlantic fresh non-fillet Imports-Unspecified frozen filletsImports-All other Alaska-FreshAlaska-Other frozen Alaska-Frozen sockeye

Note: Alaska supply estimated by subtracting US exports from reported Alaska production. Should be considered approximate estimates only. Note: Does not include US farmed salmon production.

US SALMON MARKET ISSUES: QUESTIONS . . .

• Why aren’t Americans consuming more salmon? Why isn’t consumption growing as fast as in Europe?

• Does “product of USA” matter to US consumers?• When will US consumers see genetically modified

salmon? How will it affect farmed and wild markets?

46

Salmon Final [Read-Only] Panel.pdf · Source: ABG Sundal Collier, June 2012, as used in a...

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Transcript of Salmon Final [Read-Only] Panel.pdf · Source: ABG Sundal Collier, June 2012, as used in a...