Safety and Security - iPresas
Transcript of Safety and Security - iPresas
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Safety and Security
Enrique CifresDr.Ing.C.C.y P
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Comentarios sobre seguridad hidrológica
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1.- ¿Sabemos con certeza jurídica cómo hemos de aplicar nuestros
conocimientos técnicos?
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El Reglamento lo expresó como “riesgos asumibles”, pero sigue quedando sin dilucidar quién establece esa “aceptabilidad”.
Sabemos quién no debe establecerlo: El técnico proyectista.La sociedad, mediante sus instituciones representativas es la que
tiene la legitimidad de aceptar un riesgo o establecer su nivel,para la consecución del Interés General. Necesitamos una Leyde que regule el criterio de riesgo aceptable en las infraestructuras.
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Artículo 11.- Avenidas a considerar.11.1 El criterio básico para la selección y la determinación de las avenidas de proyecto será el del riesgo potencial asumible....11.3 En función del riesgo potencial asumible durante la fase de construcción de la presa se determinarán las avenidas a considerar en el proyecto de los desvíos provisionales y órganos de desagüe. Se tendrá en cuenta, necesariamente, la distribución de frecuencias de las avenidas según los meses.
R.T.S.P.E.
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Presa de Vilamarxant: Participación ciudadana, 2006
2.- ¿Cómo articular la voluntad social?
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Heavy reasons to promote public participation; most of them can be put under subjective discussion: (after Skeffington,UK, 1969)
• Public participation processes provide more efficient management, thus actions would be carried out better if the affected people were involved.
• Long-term sustainability of a project would be more warranted if the involved people have participated since early stages. Participants could be considered themselves as an essential factor in final result.
• Gained legitimacy if people’s concerns and opinions are taken into account.• Problem comprehension becomes deeper sharing analysis with local agents due to
their know-how and local knowledge. It must be stated that problems can be formulated from very different points of view.
• It’s possible to anticipate absolutely unacceptable proposals saving time and cost.• Participants can update their prior positions having access to clear information and
arguments during the process. At the end is too late and perhaps some unreasonable reactions can be set up.
• Other than initial actors can be found during the process allowing that new unconsidered inputs or hidden factors can be identified.
Public Participation in Dam ProjectsDr. E. Cifres. HRW, USA, 2007
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Some learned lessons• Lack of implication of potential beneficed people who trust that the
administration promotes the solution of its interests. Most of the cases, public participation in held looking for legitimacy of those proposals that have not been made with that opened starting position.
• Equity in costs and benefits means to known externalities that need very complex and not agreed procedures. For instance, gained value of the land after flood control schemes.
• It’s absolutely necessary to gain credibility from stakeholders and that is only possible believing in the process yourself. Playing the role of a fair arbitratorbetween confronted positions and no trying to defend just a proposal means to believe in the public participation as a democratic tool more than on your own criteria.
• Transparency and well defined rules and calendars are also essential as wellas the knowledge “a priori” of the range of possibilities, boundary conditions and the scope of the discussion. Too wide scopes, larger than permitted, can be interpreted as promising possibilities that once have to be rejected become in frustration.
• However, there will be always who remain frustrated, including those who for each solution find a problem.
Public Participation in Dam ProjectsDr. E. Cifres. HRW, USA, 2007
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Timing
The beginning of the public participation in projects is, very often, too delayed. Moreover, if main planned decisions are taken, it can be interpreted as a deceit. The waste and frustration of Decide-Announce-Defend must be avoided (CLG, 2006).
However, at very early stages, conscience on the potential affections does not awake and reactions do not take place.Also, it must be said that real benefits and costs, including externalities, are very difficult to estimate at that early phase.
See: European Directive on the Environmental Assessment of Plans andProgrammes
Public Participation in Dam ProjectsDr. E. Cifres. HRW, USA, 2007
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3.- ¿cuál es el estado de salud de la ciencia
hidrológica?
-Presas existentes-Nuevos proyectos
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PRIMERA POSIBILIDAD• Evaluar el daño potencial a priori o riesgo
potencial por rotura. Clasificar la presa.• Establecer un criterio de selección de la
avenida de proyecto y extrema en función de ello (Guia tecnica).
Establecer el grado de autodefensa de la presa para evitar daños a terceros en caso de rotura
Técnica vigente
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f1f2 f3
D2
D4
D3
f1*D2+f2*D3+f3*D4
Con la misma hidrologia y clasificacion de la presa
f1f2 f3
D1 nulosD2D3
f1*0+f2*D2+f3*D3
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OTRA POSIBILIDAD•• Evaluar el Evaluar el dadañño potencial a priori o o potencial a priori o riesgo generalizado riesgo generalizado
naturalnatural. . •• Evaluar la modificaciEvaluar la modificacióón del riesgo que implica la presa n del riesgo que implica la presa
bajo diferentes posibilidades de disebajo diferentes posibilidades de diseññoo–– Establecer un criterio de selecciEstablecer un criterio de seleccióón de las n de las avenidasavenidas de proyecto de proyecto
en funcien funcióón de ellon de ello–– Proyectar sus elementos de desagProyectar sus elementos de desagüüe en consecuenciae en consecuencia
No solo eNo solo establecer el grado de autodefensa de la presa stablecer el grado de autodefensa de la presa sinosinoevaluarevaluar susu papelpapel o o impactoimpacto en el en el riesgoriesgo y y susu aceptabilidadaceptabilidad
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REGIMEN NATURAL DE AVENIDAS
DISMINUCION DE RIESGO POR LAMINACION
RIESGO IMPUESTO ROTURA POTENCIAL*
*no solo por riesgo hidrologico
F
REGULACION
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Rio aguas abajo de una presa
II--MModificaciodificacióónn del riesgodel riesgo
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Modification of PDF due to the flood protection plan at Torrente City
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Modification of PDF at Industrial area due to Pozalet Creek ( Cheste Dam, Routing pool &
Channelling)
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4.- ¿Es posible comerciar con el
riesgo?
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5.- ¿Se tiene el control de todos los elementos de decisión involucrados?
-Órganos de decisión-Evolución futura-..incertidumbres
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Gracias por vuestras críticas