SADC Course in Statistics

Climate variability and climate change

Module B1, Session 7

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Learning Objectives

• Explain why climate issues are included • in this statistics course

• Relate climate change and climate variability• to risk assessment and productivity in agriculture

• Understand the data requirements• for a climate change problem concerning planting dates

• Interpret a graph of planting dates • to begin to assess the evidence for climate change

• Explain their role, if any, • in the climate debate

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Contents

1. Session outline

2. The case for including climatic examples• video, transcript and discussion

3. Climate variability and agriculture• video, transcript and discussion

4. Class discussion reviewing the interviews

5. Group work• DFID fact sheet on the importance of climate issues• Zambia case study• What role can you play

6. Review

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Activity 2 – why include climatic examples?

• Climate variability affects many sectors• of the National Statistical system• including health and agriculture

• Climatic “shocks” are a major issue• in preventing families climbing out of poverty

• Climate change is a global issue• which could hit Africa hard

• And studying variability• is what statistics is all about!

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Activity 3: Climate and rainfed agriculture

• Africa depends on rainfed agriculture• and will continue to do so

• It is a risky business• and farmers are risk averse• partly because they don’t know the risks

• But they could• If the climatic data were analysed appropriately

• Then they could take advantage • of the average and good years• better than they are able to do now

• The video tells the story!

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Activity 4: Class discussion (10 min)

• What are the key points to take away from these interviews?

• What do these messages mean for development projects and studies?

• Do you agree with them?

• What can studies into climate, past and present, inform us on?

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Activity 5: Group work

• Divide into groups of 4

• Within your group divide into pairs• Each pair looks at one of the two remaining resources

1. International - DFID factsheet

2. Local - Zambia study on climate change

• Report on your study to the others in your group

• picking out 4 or 5 key points• as part of your explanation

• Then in the group• discuss your views on climate variability and change

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Responding to the risks of climate change

• Fact sheet by DFID• DFID = UK Department for International Development

• Are different approaches • to poverty eradication necessary?

• Reducing the vulnerability of the poor• to current climate variability• is the starting point for adaptation to climate

change

• What are the priorities for Africa?• see the DFID fact sheet

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Climate change in Southern Zambia

• Farmers are migrating North

• Claiming their farming problems• are due to climate change

• A local NGO – CFU • Conservation Farming Unit

• Agrees there are problems of climate variability

• But is not convinced that climate change• Has affected these rainfall-related risks

• So they wanted a study of the rainfall data• to check on the evidence for climate change• and calculate the risks

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One result from the Zambia study

The daily rainfall data were needed for this analysis

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Explain to your group

• From your case study• Explain to the others in your group• Partly by giving 4 or 5 key points

• Then have a general group discussion

• Do you agree with the inclusion• of climatic examples in this course

• The DFID fact sheet• says that climate variability and climate change• is so important • that new approaches are needed

• What do you think?

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What could climate issues mean for you?

• Is climate variability and climate change• just for your government• or for the West• or for the Met Service

• Or does it affect everyone?

• If so• and if variability is so important • which is something statisticians study

• What should you do?• What could you do• “You” could be yourself, or your organisation

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The next session continues the climatic theme by looking at solar energy,

particularly solar cooking