Sabina Bokal Drought Management Centre for Southeastern ... · Standardized Precipitation Index...
Transcript of Sabina Bokal Drought Management Centre for Southeastern ... · Standardized Precipitation Index...
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Standardized Precipitation Indextool for drought monitoring
- Examples from Slovenia -
Sabina Bokal
Drought Management Centre for Southeastern Europe, DMCSEE
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Contents
What is Standardized Precipitation Index? SPI characteristics SPI methodology Practical experience with SPI Is SPI appropriate tool for monitoring agricultural
drought?
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What is Standardized Precipitation Index? drought indices McKee – article in 1993 most wide-spread use in practical drought
monitoring “Lincoln Declaration on Drought Indices”
(Workshop on indices and Early Warning Systems for Drought, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, December, 2009)
“SPI will characterize the meteorological drought around the world.”
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SPI advantages / disadvantagesSPI
ADVANTAGES
simple / input = precipitation
describe drought on time scale
standardization
describe dry and wet periods in the same way
independent from geographical position
DISADVANTAGES
access to a long, reliable temporal time series
meteorological drought
short time periods (1,2 month) regions with low precipitations can give misleading SPI values
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SPI - characteristics
characteristics of specific drought event: lead-time duration intensity
different time scales 1-month SPI:
short-term conditions soil moisture drought stress
3-month SPI: seasonal estimation of
precipitation overall crop yield
6/12 –month SPI: impact on groundwater
amount of precipitation over a selected time period
normal or expected rainfall for this period
SPI value Classification Cumulative probability (%)
2.00 or more Extremely wet 2.3 1.50 do 1.99 Very wet 0.4 1.00 do 1.49 Moderately wet 9.2
0 do 0.99 Mildly wet 34.1 0 do -0.99 Mild wet 34.1 -1 do -1.49 Moderate drought 9.2
-1.50 do -1.99 Severe drought 4.4 -2 or less Extreme drought 2.3
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SPI – methodology of SPI mappingLong, continuous time-series (at least 30 years)
METEO office
Data availability delay - in the middle of the following month
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 SPI3_30.9.
Stations with time series 1971-2000
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SPI manual
http://www.saga-
gis.org
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Practical experience with SPIDrought development in 2006
20.998 people involved
139 municipality
178.296,78 ha
25% of the area + two month
Very intensive
42.395.720 € damage
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
ocen
jena
ško
da (v
100
0 E
UR
)
Potres Pozeba Drsenje tal in snega (plaz, usad) Požar Neurje (močan veter) Poplava Toča Suša
Yearly structural damage due to natural hazards
Red areas = >90 €/ha
Yield damage
2006
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SPI development in 2006 (SPI calculated on 30.9.2006)
SPI1 (sep) SPI2 (sep,avg)
SPI3 (sep-jul) SPI6 (apr-sep)
2.00 or more Extremely wet 0 do 0.99 Mildly wet1.50 do 1.99 Very wet 0 do -0.99 Mild wet -1.50 do -1.99 Severe drought1.00 do 1.49 Moderately wet -1 do -1.49 Moderate drought -2 or less Extreme drought
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2.6.2006 2.7.2006
1.8.2006 31.8.2006
30.9.20062.00 or more Extremely wet1.50 do 1.99 Very wet1.00 do 1.49 Moderately wet
0 do 0.99 Mildly wet0 do -0.99 Mild wet-1 do -1.49 Moderate drought
-1.50 do -1.99 Severe drought-2 or less Extreme drought
SPI value Classification
3-month SPI calculated on different dates
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Is SPI appropriate tool for monitoring agricultural
drought?
water balance
yield decrease
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SPI & water balance
Water balance from 1.6. – 31.7.2006
2-month SPI (June – July)
Water balance = absolute values
SPI = in comparison with long-term average
Year with extreme dry areas
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Drought analysis using SPIData available for drought verification:
bulletin
archive
statistical reports
yield reports
agrometeorological reports
damage estimation
Identification of drought severity
Red = more then 50% of all agricultural areas in municipality was damage
Share of damage agricultural areas
Spatial distribution of SPI Temporal distribution of SPIco
mpa
rison
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Šempas
-4-3-2-1
0123
3.1.
18.1. 2.2
.17
.2. 4.3.
19.3. 3.4
.18
.4. 3.5.
18.5. 2.6
.17
.6. 2.7.
17.7. 1.8
.16
.8.31
.8.15
.9.30
.9.20
.10.
4.11.
19.11
.4.1
2.19
.12.
SP11
SPI1
Šempas
-5-4-3-2-10123
3.1.
18.1. 2.2
.17
.2. 4.3.
19.3. 3.4
.18
.4. 3.5.
18.5. 2.6
.17
.6. 2.7.
17.7. 1.8
.16
.8.31
.8.15
.9.30
.9.20
.10.
4.11.
19.11
.4.1
2.19
.12.
SPI2
SPI2
Šempas
-4-3-2-10123
3.1.
18.1. 2.2
.17
.2. 4.3.
19.3. 3.4
.18
.4. 3.5.
18.5. 2.6
.17
.6. 2.7.
17.7. 1.8
.16
.8.31
.8.15
.9.30
.9.20
.10.
4.11.
19.11
.4.1
2.19
.12.
SPI3
SPI3
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Veliki Trn
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
3.1.
18.1. 2.2
.17
.2. 4.3.
19.3. 3.4
.18
.4. 3.5.
18.5. 2.6
.17
.6. 2.7.
17.7. 1.8
.16
.8.31
.8.15
.9.30
.9.20
.10.
4.11.
19.11
.4.1
2.19
.12.
SPI1
SPI1
Veliki Trn
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
3.1.
18.1. 2.2
.17
.2. 4.3.
19.3. 3.4
.18
.4. 3.5.
18.5. 2.6
.17
.6. 2.7.
17.7. 1.8
.16
.8.31
.8.15
.9.30
.9.20
.10.
4.11.
19.11
.4.1
2.19
.12.
SPI2
SPI2
Veliki Trn
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
3.1.
18.1. 2.2
.17
.2. 4.3.
19.3. 3.4
.18
.4. 3.5.
18.5. 2.6
.17
.6. 2.7.
17.7. 1.8
.16
.8.31
.8.15
.9.30
.9.20
.10.
4.11.
19.11
.4.1
2.19
.12.
SPI3
SPI3
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SO …let’s now answer the question…
SPI is appropriate tool for monitoring agricultural drought …
BUT … in combination with other information: water balance, crop condition, …)