S509-Opio Livestock South Asia - wamis.org · Farming systems •Land-based livestock systems...
Transcript of S509-Opio Livestock South Asia - wamis.org · Farming systems •Land-based livestock systems...
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Livestock and Climate Change inSouth Asia
Carolyn Opio
26 August 2008
Dhaka
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Content
• The Livestock sector in South Asia• Livestock and climate change• Mitigation and Adaptation• Policy options and conclusions
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The Livestock sector in South Asia
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Drivers of the Livestock Sector
• Demand Drivers• population growth: 2.1% p.a.;+ 60 % by 2050; + 560 million in India, 200 million in Pakistan, 130 million in Bangladesh by 2050• income growth: 2.9% p.a.; Per capita income projected to grow at 4.7% p.a. (2000-2030)• urbanization: Increasing urban population but more than 57% of population still rural by 2050• Socio-cultural factors: Beef and pork, lacto-vegetarianism
• Supply Drivers• cheap grain: decreasing prices over the past four decades, recent upsurge• technological change: genetics, animal health, feeding, transport• cheap energy: declining prices, recent surge
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Estimated distribution of human population
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Trends in the livestock sector
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001
Mill
ion
met
ric to
nnes
Milk
Meat
Meat and milk production in South Asia
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Contribution to meat production by livestock specie in South Asia
Shares of production, 2000 Growth rates in production, %
54%
18%
8%
20%
Beef Sheep & goat meat Pig meat Poultry meat
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1961-2002 2000-2030
Beef
Sheep & goat
Pig meat
Poultry meat
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Farming systems
• Land-based livestock systems (grazing and mixed)
• Predominately ruminants, local indigenous breeds with low productivity
• Dependent on natural resources: grazing and crop-residues
• Intensive livestock systems• Monogastrics (mainly poultry) and dairy, improved breeds and animal health
• Use of feed-grain and supplements• Characterized by growing intensities, increasing scales of production and vertical integration
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Estimated distribution of livestock production systems
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Livestock and Land Use in South Asia
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Increasing land scarcity
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Trends in land-use area for livestock production and production of meat and milk in South Asia
• Intensification has occurred• production growing faster than land area
• intensification achieved through improved breeds, animal health, shift to poultry, etc.
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Trends in feed use in South Asia
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5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1970 2002
Oilcakes Cereals Brans Roots & Tubers
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Meat and milk Consumption in South Asia
Kg/person/year
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20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Kg/
pers
on/y
ear
1970 1980 1990 2000 2015 2030 2050
Meat Milk
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Meat Consumption by livestock type in South Asia
Kg/person/year
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1969/71 1979/81 1989/91 1999/01 2015 2030 2050
kg/p
erso
n/ye
ar
Beef Sheep & goat meat Pig meat Poultry meat
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South Asia: Net trade in milk and meat
-5000
-4000
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
1969/71 1979/81 1989/91 1999/01 2015 2030 2050
'000
met
ric to
nnes
MEAT
MILK
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Implications for Greenhouse Gas Emissions
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A food-chain perspective of GHG emissions
� Livestock sector an important source of GHG• Emissions from livestock rearing
• Methane from enteric fermentation• Methane from animal manure
• Emissions from feed production
• chemical fertilizer fabrication and application• on-farm fossil fuel use• livestock-related land use changes• C release from soils�[Rangeland and grassland burning]
• Post harvest emissions
• slaughtering and processing• international transportation�[national transportation]
High potential for GHG emission reduction
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Past and projected methane emissions from enteric fermentation
• CH4emission projected to increase
• India and Nepal: 70% increase by 2020 (relative to 1990)
• Pakistan: 54% increase
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1990 2000 2010 2020
Mt C
O2
eq.
Pakistan
Nepal
India
Source: US-EPA, 2006
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Emissions from manure management: Past and projected trends
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1990 2000 2010 2020
Mt C
O2
eq.
Pakistan
Nepal
India
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
1990 2000 2010 2020
Mt C
O2
eq.
Pakistan
Nepal
India
CH4 EMISSIONS N2O EMISSIONS
Source: US-EPA, 2006
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Impacts of Climate Change on the Livestock Sector
Resource price:
– High feed costs (production; competition for feedstock resources for biofuel production)
– High energy costs
Agro-ecological changes:
– fodder quantity and quality– host-pathogen interactions– Competition for resources (land, water)
Indirect impacts
– extreme weather events – disease epidemics
– productivity losses (physiological stress) due to temperature increase
– water availability
– extreme weather events– drought and floods– disease epidemics– productivity losses (physiological stress) due to temperature increase
– water availability
Direct impacts
Non-grazing systemsGrazing systems
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Policy agenda – what is at stake?
• Challenges at several levels• Food security: Productions systems under CC scenario are threatened
• Poverty and livelihoods implications: Due to the importance of the sector for a large % of population in South Asia which for many is a pathway out of poverty
• Public health implications: Related to effects on nutrition and emerging diseases
• Biodiversity loss
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Mitigation and adaptation
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Mitigation and Adaptation
• Different mitigation & adaptation strategies to address differences in farming systems
� Land-based systems: Production takes place in the environment and therefore more sensitive to CC • High reliance on natural resource base • low potential to adapt due to low access to technology, information and capital
• + not dependent on feed, energy inputs • + adapted to harsh environment conditions
� Intensive systems: Production takes place in ‘artificial environment’ hence impact can be mitigated • + have potential to adapt easily due to access to technology and capital
• Depend on purchased inputs thus impacted through high resource prices
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Mitigation Options (1)
• Reduction of methane from Enteric fermentation• Animal productivity gains-Improved breeds, animal health. A dairy cow in India emits 40 times as much methane per liter of milk than her European counterpart
• feed formulation: improved feeding practices – high grain diets, improved pasture quality
• Reduction of emissions from Manure management • balanced feeding, reducing methane emissions and lowering the N content in animal diets
• Energy recovery from animal waste for biogas production (Anaerobic digestion)
• Targeting manure application (dosing, timing and application techniques – rapid incorporation, injection)
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Mitigation Options (2)
• Measure to Control Land Use change• intensification of animal production (genetics, animal husbandry) and feed production, improved pasture management (optimizing stocking numbers, rotational grazing, fertilization, improved pastures species, fodder banks)
• Measures to avoid deforestation (land use polices, subsidies, etc.)
• Conserve/restore C and N in cultivated soils and rangelands• increase tree cover and live fences• pasture management: pasture rotation and improved pasture species• rehabilitation of degraded rangelands to increase carbon pool
� promotion of practices such as Agro-forestry systems, conservation agriculture
• Reduce emissions related to inputs into the production process e.g. feed, fertilizer
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Adaptation
• Adaptation within current production system• Technological adjustments: improved breeds, shading, sprinkling, increasing air circulation, improved management practices e.g., stocking rates, rotational grazing, improved pasture species, improved resource efficiency use (land, water and feed), feed conservation techniques
• Risk management measures: Weather-based insurance schemes, climate information systems e.g. early warning systems, risk fund schemes e.g. micro credit, feed storage
• Infrastructure and services: provision of Water points, appropriate shades, enhanced veterinary services, extension services, fodder banks, feed lots
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Adaptation
• Changes of production systems• Technological measures: breed selection and improvement for greater tolerance and increased productivity, intensification of livestock production, changing location of livestock production
• Diversification: substitution of livestock species(drought resistant species, monogastrics for ruminants), income diversification (seasonal/permanent), changes in land use choices e.g. agro-forestry practices, conversion of marginal grazing land to forests
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Policy instruments - mitigation
• Payment for environmental services – e.g. Kyoto’s Clean Development Mechanism • Support to reduction in emissions from animal waste management e.g. Indian farmers engaged in biogas production participation in carbon trading on Chicago Climate Exchange
• Support to initiatives involving afforestation and reafforestation• carbon sequestration in rangelands through pasture improvement?? : Huge potential to reduce GHG but not eligible under CDM
• Subsidies for intensification and improved land tenure / pasture management, forest conservation policies
• Promotion of Good practices: voluntary, regulated or condition to access subsidy schemes• manure storage and land application• soil conservation
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Policy instruments - adaptation
• Support to technology transfer, especially where resources and access to information are limited
• Payment for environmental services: Support to practices aimed at carbon sequestration
• Development of frameworks for insurance schemes(weather, diseases), climate information systems (early warning systems), credit schemes, income diversification opportunities
• Institutional policy adjustments: agricultural policy support and investment support
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Policy contextAddressing CC within the broader context of various issues
• Other environmental issues• biodiversity: Major threat through habitat change and pollution • water resource depletion: feedcrops, pollution, impacts on water cycles
• The social and health dimensions of livestock • estimated 200 million poor people depend on livestock, entirely or partially
• Importance of the socio-cultural dimension of livestock• important source of protein and micro-nutrients to many of the 298 million food insecure people
• Contribute to health problems of the affluent (obesity, cancers,cardio-vascular diseases)
• Current high food prices on mid-term perspective (demographic changes, economic growth, bio-fuels, climate change)
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Concluding remarks (1)
• High food and feed prices on mid-term perspective
• Livestock production is however projected to (almost) double by 2050
• Under a “business as usual” scenario environmental impacts will continue
• Pressure on resources shall increase and resilience of systems will be challenged
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Concluding remarks (2)
• Technology options are generally available to mitigate environmental impacts. For climate:
• Intensification (livestock and feed production)• Waste management• Carbon conservation/sequestration above and below ground
• Development and implementation of policy measures are required, especially in hotspots of environmental impact
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