Russian S&T Foresight 2030: conception and first results

Higher School of Economics

Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge

Foresight Centre

Alexander Chulok achulok@hse.ru

3rd EURussia Innovation Forum together with

21st EBN Annual Congress

13 -15 June 2012, Lappeenranta, Finland

Contents

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Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2012 2

• S&T Foresight: - historical overview

- general framework

- two groups of results

- networks of experts

• First results of S&T Foresight 2030: - global trends to be addressed

- scientific areas of emerging technologies

- “white spots” and breakthrough windows

- challenges and windows of opportunities for mature technologies

• S&T Foresight outcomes for: - research organizations

- innovations

- policy implementation

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1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030

Assessment of the

development

prospects of the

priority areas of

science

Long-term S&T Foresight 2030

I Cycle II Cycle

III Cycle

Science and

technology in

Russia 2010

Basic Research Forecast

Scenarios and long-term priorities of

scientific technological cooperation

between Russia and the EU

Priorities of

innovation

development for

Republic of

Bashkortostan

Strategy of the Samara

Region

Foresight for Ekaterinburg

Scenarios of the

electricity development

RF critical technologies RF critical

technologies

Long-term priorities of the

heating development

Electricity Forecast

Priorities of EU-Russia cooperation

in nanoelectronics

Roadmap for

power

engineering Science and Technology

Energy Foresight

Energy

Foresight

Forecast of ICT

development: 2020 Forecast of ICT development:

2030

Priorities of innovation development of

natural resource complex

State-owned companies

Roadmaps and Foresight

Foresight for nanotechnologies

(Rusnano)

Forecast of broadband dual-

use access technologies

development

Nanotechnology Roadmaps

Foresight and roadmaps

in the aircraft industry

Foresight priorities of

technological modernization

(Fund "Skolkovo")

S&T Foresight in Russian S&T and Innovation policy:

a historical overview

National level

1996 – 1997: Initiation of

Foresight Projects in Russia

(HSE)

Regional level

Industry level

Corporate level

Fore

sight H

orizo

n

4 4

Priorities for S&T and innovation

• Mission-oriented: Technology modernisation

• Functional: Restructuring S&T system

• Thematic: Critical technologies, S&T programmes

ISSEK HSE

Information and telecommunication systems

Living systems

Industry of nanosystems

Transportation and aerospace systems

Rational use of nature

Energy efficiency and energy saving

Energy efficiency

Nuclear technologies

Space technologies

Medicine

Strategic information technologies

Research universities

Innovation infrastructure at universities

National research centres

Centres of excellence

S&T Foresight for Russian S&T and innovation

policy: possible options for the future

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Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2012

S&T Foresight

•Evidence -based analysis •Integration of quantitative and qualitative methods •Prioritizing •Communication •Involving stakeholders •Integration to policy

Grand Challenges and Grand Responses

Demand for new skills

Policy mix

New economy

New consumers' behavior

New instruments for S&T policy

Changing society

Multidisciplinary and multicultural

research

Changing National Innovation System

Enhancing Infrastructure, networks

5

Higher School of Economics 2012

6 ISSEK HSE

Database of experts: more than 8000

International expert networks

International Advisory Board on Foresight (HSE) UNIDO, OECD

The Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Seville, Spain The University of Manchester, UK

Industry

40 regions

All largest research centers and universities

Number of respondents

more than 800

National S&T Foresight: databases and experts networks

University -Coordinator

Coordinator (HSE)

Network of Foresight Centres: Organizational Structure

ICT

(Russian State University of

Aviation Technology)

NANO (Moscow

Institute of Physics and

Technology )

BIO (Siberian State

Medical University )

USE OF NATURE

(Moscow State University)

ENERGY

(National Research Nuclear

University MEPhI)

Universities

Business

Industrial Science

Academic Science

Foreign experts

State representatives

Centre 1

Centre 2

Centre 5

Centre 4

Centre 3

Centre 6

(S.Petesburg NRU of Information

Technologies, Mechanics and

Optics )

TRANSPORT & AEROSPACE

Virtual network

Building sustainable expert networks: Foresight centres at universities

8

3rd cycle: application-driven S&T Foresight

Identification

of points of effort’s

application

System

of priorities

Roadmaps

for priorities

realisation

External factors Alternatives

Innovative

products

and services

New

technological

solutions

R&D

Global trends and challenges of S&T

development

Scenarios of long-term S&T development

Perspective

market

segments

Highest

importance and

S&T potential

S&T

Products

Markets

ISSEK HSE

3rd S&T Foresight cycle: Key features

Methodology: combination of technology push and market pull

Wider coverage of the sectors of the Russian economy

Assessing future demand for skills

Building a sustainable participants’ networks: expert panels, Foresight

centres at leading universities

Engagement of businesses: technology platforms, programmes of

innovation development of state owned companies, business associations

Closer interaction with everyday policy making in S&T and innovation:

presentation of outputs

Wide dissemination and discussion of results, building sustainable

feedback

Moving from informing policies to

designing them ISSEK HSE

9

10

3rd S&T Foresight cycle: major components

S&T Foresight

Global and national

factors of long-term

development

S&T resources (R&D organisations, fixed assets, human resources)

Macroeconomic trends

Roadmaps for sectors and S&T priority areas

Strategies for innovation development of sectors

Policy recommendations for S&T and innovation

ISSEK HSE

Anticipated outputs

• S&T – Scientific results

– Breakthrough technologies

– Innovation products and services

– Assessment of Russia vis-à-vis world leaders

• Demand for technologies from innovation markets – Urgent demand for S&T for achieving development goals

– New markets

– Risks, barriers, limitations

– Russia’s competitive advantages

• Major sectors of economy – Scenarios

– Strategic forks

– Technological priorities

ISSEK HSE

11

S&T Foresight: Two groups of results

Energy and energy efficiency

ICT

Biotechnologies

Medicine and health

New materials and nanotechnology

Transport and space systems

Rational use of nature

Young sprouts

Technology packages

Push

Pull

1. Leading countries, Russian teams 2. Management solutions (policies) 3. Time of emergence and application 4. Financial resources

5. Infrastructure solutions 6. Required competencies

Key features

Description format

Breakthrough technologies and product groups expected to be particularly

important in 2020-2030

Groups of products and technologies with a potential to deal with critical problems

and major challenges

Priority areas

Key challenges until 2030

Technologies and technological solutions contribution to responses

Description of

technology

packages

Grand Challenges: what S&T Foresight should address?

13

1 2 3

4

5

6

7

8

9

11 10 12

13 14

15

16

17

21 20

19

18

Water security / vulnerability

Energy security / vulnerability

Diseases / health and well

being Sustainability and

climate change

Ageing & other

demographic

tensions Food security /

diet & culture

Globalisation

vs. Localisation

Social cohesion

and diversity

Technological security,

hazard & risk

Behavioural change, lifestyles

Innovation, knowledge & technology Work-Life balance and mental health

Science / technology impacts & ethics

Crime, justice,

corruption, transparency

Governance,

democracy, citizenship

Coexistence &

conflicts

Social pathologies

& ethics

Social exclusion,

poverty, affluence

Economic prosperity &

dynamics

Urban and rural dynamics

Education standards / investments

Source: iKnowfuture, the Millennium Project

14

National S&T Foresight : scientific areas of emerging technologies

Medicine and

health

Molecular diagnostics for prophylactic

and personalised medicine

Exploration, development and research of

promising drug candidates by assigning

molecular pharmacological targets

Biodegradable and composite

medical materials

Bioelectrodynamics

and X-ray medicine

Human proteomics

Transport and

space systems

Energy efficiency and

power saving

Environment

management

Information and

telecommunication

systems

New materials

and

nanotechnology

Functional

materials

Hybrid materials and

convergent technologies

Construction

materials

Computer modelling

of materials and

processes

Materials

diagnostics

Information

processing

technologies

Computer

architectures and

systems

Telecommunication

technologies

Component base,

electronic

devices, robotics

Promising technologies for

environment monitoring and

assessment, and forecasting of

natural and anthropogenic

emergencies

Environment

preservation and

safety technologies

Exploration, prospecting and

integrated use of mineral and

hydrocarbon resources

Development of

integrated

transport

environment

Increasing transport

systems’ safety and

environmental properties

Intelligent energy

systems of the future

Modelling promising

energy technologies

and systems

Promising

energy

technologies

Efficient use of

power

Predictive modelling,

techniques and tools for

developing and maintaining

promising systems

Information

securityAlgorithms and

software

Biotechnology

Agribiotechnologies

Forest biotechnologies

Industrial

biotechnologies

Development of

methodologies for

biotech research

Environmental

biotechnologies

Food production

biotechnologies

Aquabioculture

Human genome

description for

prophylactic and

personalised

medicine

Technologies,

prototypes and stands

for developing

promising transport

and space systems

Exploration and

utilisation of

oceanic, Arctic and

Antarctic resources

New materials and

catalysts for power

engineering of the

future

Biomedical

cellular

technologies

National S&T Foresight : Challenges and windows of

opportunities for technologies

Medicine and health

Global trends

Transport systems Energy

• Increase of cancer rates

• Proliferation of city diseases

• Lack of organs and tissues

for transplanting

• High mortality rate

• Small towns and villages do

not have advanced medical

facilities nearby

• Inefficient rehabilitation

system

Gene and cell therapy

Drug delivery and

localisation systems

Biocompatible non-

degradable materials

• Stricter environmental

requirements

• Increased energy saving

requirements

• Safety on transport

• Increased global energy

consumption

• Exhaustion of cheap

conventional energy

resources

• Vulnerability of power

infrastructure

• Low oil recovery ratio at

traditional oilfields

• Low efficiency of gas

steam-turbine plants

• High energy waste in the

grids

Highly efficient heat and

power natural gas based

plants

New technologies for

burning organic fuels

New hydrogen production,

storage and consumption

technologies

• Low energy efficiency and

reliability of vehicles

• Inefficient monocentric

radial structure of the

transportation network

Hybrid automobile

engines

Low-carbon sustainable

vehicles

Intelligent transport

networks

S&T areas

Russian challenges

16

Scientific areas: “white spots” and breakthrough

windows

Opportunities

to join forces

and increase

efficiency

ICT

Nano

Transport & space

Energy

Bio Medicine

Functional structure composite

materials for dental and maxillofacial

implants

Biotechnological processes for producing

industrial and medical bioproducts in plants

and animals

Computational systems’ component prototypes

High-temperature and durable turbine

buckets

High-temperature

superconductivity

Materials diagnostics Use of Nature

Techniques to cultivate marine

organisms’ cell lines

Tissue equivalents and artificial live

human organs

Software systems’ prototypes for real-

time analysis of complex 3D images and

videos

Traffic flows’ and transport systems’ intelligent management systems’ models

Wireless energy transfer

Detoxication of air and water environments

Next-generation engineering systems for energy-efficient buildings

Technologies for deep processing of organic fuels

Significantly

below the

world level:

“white spots”

Opportunities to

increase

competencies to

the world level

World

leader Technologies for separating and purifying

gaseous mixtures and liquids

Technologies for mathematical modelling and optimisation of next-

generation power generating and related installations’ schemes and

parameters

Climate and climate change modelling

New distributed computing principles

Bio-testing and bio-indication techniques

offering increased sensitivity and selectivity

Human proteome

profiling

Chemistry of solids

Nanosize catalysts

and membranes for

deep integrated

processing of raw

materials

State-of-the-art

17

Results: Foresight-based investment decisions

Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2012

18

Results: optional strategies based on roadmaps

Markets

Price vs quality

Technical

requirements

R&D Manufacturing Product Market

Technological

chain PRODUCT

Import of

technologies

R&D

19

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Research organizations

Formulation of basic research plans Formulation of R&D agenda

Research universities

Development of research agenda Development of education programs Participation in joint R&D

S&T Foresight Research organizations

20

20

S&T Foresight Innovation

Large firms

Revelation of challenges and windows of opportunities Development of innovation strategies Development of technology modernization plans

NIS infrastructure

Funds; Development institutes

SMEs

Comprehension of S&T priorities Participation in joint research projects

Participation in revising and realization of S&T priorities Development of joint R&D agenda, support for strategic initiatives

21

Russian S&T policy framework till 2020 RF Strategy for innovation development Strategy-2020

Government and federal target programs Innovation infrastructure at universities Bridging universities and industry Establishing international labs at universities

Strategies for regions and cities development

Technology platforms Corporate innovation development programs Clusters development programs

S&T Foresight Policy Implementation

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Thank you for your

attention!

achulok@hse.ru