Russian pharmaceutical market: 2016 vs 2017 - ALPHA … · Russian pharmaceutical market: 2016 vs...
Transcript of Russian pharmaceutical market: 2016 vs 2017 - ALPHA … · Russian pharmaceutical market: 2016 vs...
Russian pharmaceutical market:
2016 vs 2017
Anna Ermolaeva AlphaRM General Manager
Russian pharmaceutical market volume ‘16 ~1,13 (trln, RUB)* & ~5,3 (bln, units) Including Food Supplements (FS), Medical Devises (MD) and others ~1,4 trln, RUB and 7,7 billion, units
*Excluding Food Supplements (FS), Medical Devises (MD) and others According to AlphaRM’s analytical data
958 1059 1127
307 336 351 651 723 776
2014 2015 2016
billion, RUB
25,1
17,4 16,8
8,0 5,5 5,2 17,1 11,9 11,6
2014 2015 2016
billion, USD
5,51 5,29 5,26
1,08 1,05 1,02 4,43 4,24 4,24
2014 2015 2016
billion, units
18,9 15,6 15,2
6,1 5 4,7 12,8 10,7 10,4
2014 2015 2016
billion, EUR
Total market State segment Retail segment
69% 80%
69% 69%
+11% +7% -4% -1%
-30% -3%
-17% -3%
Consumer price
68,8 % RETAIL
4,7 %
13,0 %
13,5 %
State budget
Reimbursement
Clinical segment
Target segment
State procurement
Out-of-pocket money
68% 15%
13% 4% Retail
Clinical segment
Reimbursement
Target segment
2015
*Excluding Food Supplements (FS), Medical Devises (MD) and others
According to AlphaRM’s analytical data
Russian Pharmaceutical Market Structure 2016, national currency, consumer price
Retail Pharmaceutical Market Started Growing In The Second Half of ‘16
2016/2015:
+7%
0%
-2%
-2%
+35% +15% +16% +23%
+8% 0% +3% -3%
-9% -2% -5% +9%
Un
its
0%
+25% +7% +13% +19%
-2% -12% -9% -16% -7% -7% -3%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
EUR
2015 г. 2016 г.
+28% +19% +15% +56%
+8% -18%
-31% -26% -15% -12% -19%
-3%
According to AlphaRM’s analytical data (Sell-out)
+16% +17% +27% +9% -21% -16%
-27% -25% -14% -11% -9%
USD
+51%
RU
B
Retail pharmaceutical market growth 2016 vs 2015 (%)
34%
22% 10%
17%
17% Local chains
Small local chains
Regional chains
Federal chains
Independent pharmacies
There are more than 60 K pharmacies in Russia
2016г. - 60,2 K Pharmacies + 4 %
Segmentation by revenue (sell-out), (%) RUB:
Segmentation by No. of pharmacies:
2015г. - 57,7 K Pharmacies
30%
21% 13%
18%
18%
30%
13% 20%
24%
13%
According to AlphaRM’s analytical data
35%
14% 15%
23%
13%
Dynamics of aggregate market shares among largest retailers Share of biggest players (by sales value, included in the TOP 100 pharmacy chains) is more than 50% of the retail commercial market. Consolidation continues...
According to AlphaRM’s analytical data
8,5
19
,2
49
63
,6
5,6
14
,1
34
,3
47
,8
9,8
21
,7
50
,6
64
,0 6
,3
15
,6
35
,2
47
,9
12,1
26,0
54,3
66,2
9,0
17,5
37,5
50,5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
ТОР3 ТОР10 ТОР100 ТОР300 ТОР3 ТОР10 ТОР100 ТОР300
Share, RUR. Share, pharmacies
2014 2015 2016
Share, RUB
TОР-20 Manufactures in the Retail Segment ’16 (sell-out)
Corporation Share
( %, RUB)
Pharmstandart 5,48%
Sanofi 4,32%
Novartis 4,04%
Bayer 3,92%
Servier 3,25%
GSK 3,21%
Gedeon Richter 2,91%
STADA 2,83%
Berlin-Chemie 2,81%
Teva 2,69%
Abbott 2,53%
Johnson & Johnson 2,50%
Takeda 2,21%
KRKA 2,06%
Astellas 1,92%
Valenta 1,73%
Allergan 1,69%
Dr. Reddy's 1,68%
Pfizer 1,49%
Boehringer Ingelheim 1,37%
55%
Growth 2016/2015, RUB
-10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
Boehringer Ingelheim
Pfizer
Dr. Reddy's
Allergan
Valenta
Astellas
KRKA
Takeda
Johnson & Johnson
Abbott
Teva
Berlin-Chemie
STADA
Gedeon Richter
GSK
Servier
Bayer
Novartis
Sanofi
Pharmstandart
According to AlphaRM’s analytical data
Russian Pharmaceutical Retail Market includes > 8 000 brands
ТОР10 Brands Sales Growth
(RUB) Share (RUB)
Variation 2016 vs.2015
Cardiomagnyl 18,93% 0,82% +4
Kagocel 0,11% 0,77% 0
Theraflu 14,86% 0,74% +3
Nurofen 5,53% 0,73% 0
Actovegin 1,60% 0,73% -2
Ingavirin 46,18% 0,72% +4
Essentiale N -16,11% 0,70% -6
Concor 9,23% 0,70% -1
Pentalgin 19,96% 0,69% 0
Detralex 35,28% 0,63% +6
Number of brands in the Russian market grew in 2016 by 5% to exceed 8 000 items
~ 600 Brands account about 80% of sales
According to AlphaRM’s analytical data
Evalar - FS market leader
Value of FS market ‘16 reached 43 bln. RUB, other product categories (MD, сosmetics and others) – 213 bln. RUB
TOP10 FS MANUFACTURERS
Value (bln, RUB) Share (RUB) Growth, ‘16/’15,
(%)
Evalar 7,97 18,29% 13,33%
Pharmstandart 2,40 5,50% 38,53%
Pharmamed 2,20 5,05% -7,12%
Valeant 1,96 3,84% -3,46%
VIS 1,65 3,77% -50,60%
Queisser 1,45 3,32% 5,44%
Solgar 1,44 3,31% 37,96%
Dr Reddy’s 1,41 3,24% 18,58%
Obnovlenie 0,92 2,11% 50,87%
Polpharma 0,86 1,98% 13,33%
billion, RUB.
196 213
According to AlphaRM’s analytical data
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2014 2015 2016
MD+
FS
17%
165 196 213
41 45 43
206 241 256 6%
261
355
460
229
323
413
2014 г. 2015 г. 2016 г.
Maximum Purchase Price, bln RUR. Final Purchase Price, bln RUR.
Structure of State Purchases (by auction date)
37,8
26,8
24,6
10,8
0,04
Clinical segment
Reimbursment
Rest (under 223-FL)
Target Segment
State Pharmacies (under 44-FL)
28,2 23,6 16,3 9,4 22,6
Shared by funding source (%)
Institutional Budget Regional Budget Federal Budget
Fund of OMI Other Sources
75,2 8,6 7,3 4,6 3,9
0,4 Shared by supplier selection type (%)
e-Auction RFP
Single-Source Contract Open Auction
Quote Request Other
Shared by purchase type (%)
According to AlphaRM’s analytical data
-9%
-12%
-10%
+40% +28%
ТОР10 Suppliers of MS Tender Purchase (RUB, in bidding winner price) ‘16
Supplier Share (%) Value, RUB
(mln)
1 R-Pharm 8,72 36 077
2 Pharmstandart 6,48 26 825
3 Pharmimex 3,78 15 621
4 Lancet 2,70 11 184
5 Pharmastor 2,45 10 133
6 Protek 2,19 9 079
7 Euroservice 1,95 8 062
8 Katren 1,91 7 901
9 Medipal-Onco 1,81 7 482
10 Irvin-2 1,77 7 312
ТОР10 33,76 139 679
According to AlphaRM’s analytical data
Clinical Segment
Clinical Segment Dynamics, ‘14-’16
150,77 151,76 155,13
2014 2015 2016
Bln. RUB
+2% +1%
858,08 814,33
772,50
2014 2015 2016
Mln. Units
-5% -5%
According to AlphaRM’s analytical data
Recipients share (%) by type of medical institution in clinical segment ’16
2,0 0,3
88,0
4,1 5,6
RUB (%)
Out-patient clinics
Out-patient clinics (institutional)
Hospitals
2,9 0,2
88,5
3,7 4,7
Units (%)
Hospitals (institutional)
Other purchases (under 223-FL)
According to AlphaRM’s analytical data
Rate
Variatio
n
Manufacturer Value (bln,
RUB)
Volume (mln,
units)
Share (%,
RUB)
Growth,
‘16/’15,
(%)
1 8 Biocad 5,26 0,82 3,34 78
2 - Roche 4,45 1,13 2,87 -22
3 - Sanofi 4,39 4,69 2,83 -17
4 3 Pfizer 3,43 1,82 2,22 5
5 -2 AstraZeneca 3,21 1,44 2,07 -15
6 1 Bayer 2,93 1,39 1,89 -6
7 2 Abbott 2,67 2,25 1,72 10
8 2 MSD 2,67 0,57 1,72 7
9 -2 Novartis 2,66 0,62 1,58 -18
10 3 Johnson & Johnson 2,27 0,73 1,47 12
TOP10 33,94 15,46 21,71
TOP 10 Clinical Segment Manufactures ‘16
According to AlphaRM’s analytical data
Dynamics of reimbursement segment, ’14 -’16
117,6
139,1 144,2
44
,3
44
,1
39
,1
32
,4
40
,7
45
,0
40
,9
54
,3
60
,2
2014 2015 2016
RUB, (bln)
Overall Reimbursement High Cost Nosologies
108,2
128,0 129,4
4,3
3,0
2,1
52
,3
79
,3
75
,0
51
,6
45
,7
52
,3
2014 2015 2016
Units, (mln)
Federal Reimbursement Regional Reimbursment
According to AlphaRM’s analytical data
+3,7% +18,2%
+1% +18,3%
Dynamics of Reimbursement Share (%) by localization
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2015 г. 2016 г.
Локальные
Импортные
Local
Import
High cost nosologies
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2015 г. 2016 г.
Regional Reimbursement
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2015 г. 2016 г.
Federal Reimbursement
31,7 64,6
15,4 25,3
28,3 37,2
According to AlphaRM’s analytical data
RUB
ТОР10 Manufacturers in Reimbursement Segment ‘16 (RUB) R
ate
Var
iati
on
Manufacturer
Value (bln,
RUB)
Volume
(mln, units)
Share
(%)
Growth
‘16/’15, (%)
1 9 Nativa 10,23 1,67 7,09 144
2 - Celgene 9,86 0,03 6,84 11
3 1 Sanofi 7,72 4,04 5,35 11
4 -1 Biocad 7,58 0,47 5,26 8
5 - 4 Roche 6,72 0,68 4,66 -43
6 - Novo Nordisk 6,08 3,46 4,22 14
7 - AstraZeneca 5,52 1,84 3,82 5
8 - 3 Novartis 5,36 1,69 3,72 -11
9 5 Johnson & Johnson 5,24 0,51 3,63 64
10 - 2 Alexion 4,27 0,01 2,96 -17
ТОР10 68,58 14,4 47,55
According to AlphaRM’s analytical data
ТОР10 Brands in Reimbursement Segment ‘16 R
ate
Var
iati
on
Brand Manufacturer
Value (bln,
RUB)
Volume
(mln,
units)
Share (%) Growth
(%)
1 - Revlimid Celgene 9,42 0,02 6,53 7
2 2 Lantus Sanofi 4,49 1,36 3,11 -
3 - Soliris Alexion 4,27 0,01 2,96 -17
4 new Aksoglatitan FS Nativa 3,92 0,19 2,72 new
5 1 Boramilan Nativa 3,25 0,10 2,25 -
6 - 4 Acellbija Biocad 2,71 0,66 1,88 -52
7 5 Symbicort AstraZeneca 2,04 1,06 1,41 -
8 6 Levemir Novo Nordisk 2,01 0,82 1,39 30
9 - Remicade MSD 1,84 0,04 1,28 -18
10 7 Novorapid Novo Nordisk 1,83 1,07 1,26 26
ТОР10 35,78 5,33 24,79
According to AlphaRM’s analytical data
Dynamics of Target Segment ‘14-’16
38,6
46,1 52,4
0,6 0,4 0,6 1,5 0,9 1,4
11,4 8,2 7,7
5,8
8,6 11,6
19,5
27,7 31,1
2014 2015 2016
RUB, (bln.)
Overall Segment
Regional Dedicated Programmes
Federal Dedicated Programmes
+15% +19%
107,1 103,2 113,7
2,2 1,4 2,1
23,9
9,6 11,0
51,5 56,1 48,1
9,1 11,0 11,1
20,4 25,0
41,4
2014 2015 2016
Units (mln.)
Maternity Certificate
Federal Penal Correction Service
Other
+10%
According to AlphaRM’s analytical data
-4%
ТОР10 Manufactures in Target Segment ‘16
Rate
Variatio
n
Manufacturer Value (bln,
RUB)
Volume
(mln,
units)
Share
(%)
Growth (%)
1 - AbbVie 6,74 0,83 12,74 30
2 1 Pharmasyntez 4,61 4,75 8,71 40
3 -1 Pfizer 4,56 3,60 8,62 -5
4 3 Microgen 2,96 10,54 5,31 58
5 2 Bristol-Myers Squibb 2,33 0,32 4,33 16
6 -1 MSD 2,21 0,22 4,17 -3
7 -1 Johnson & Johnson 2,03 0,20 3,84 -9
8 4 Petrovax 1,96 8,33 3,71 169
9 - ViiV 1,42 0,36 2,68 -6
10 17 Biocad 0,89 0,46 1,68 250
ТОР10 29,71 29,61 55,79
According to AlphaRM’s analytical data
ТОР10 Brand in Target Segment ‘16 Rate V
ariation
Brand Manufacturer Value
(bln, RUB)
Volume
(mln,
units)
Share
(%)
Growth
(%)
1 - Kaletra AbbVie 5,79 0,80 10,94 15
2 - Prevenar Pfizer 4,27 3,48 8,07 -6
3 - Isentress MSD 2,00 0,15 3,78 -
4 7 Grippol Petrovax Pharm 1,94 8,27 3,67 174
5 - Sovigripp Microgen 1,79 7,94 3,38 64
6 -2 Reyataz Bristol-Myers Squibb 1,77 0,23 3,33 4
7 3 Intelence Johnson & Johnson 1,42 0,13 2,68 64
8 - Kemeruvir Pharmasyntez 1,32 0,07 2,49 31
9 -2 Olitid Pharmasyntez 0,80 0,28 1,51 -20
10 -2 Kivexa ViiV 0,68 0,15 1,29 -27
ТОР10 21,78 21,5 41,14
According to AlphaRM’s analytical data
Pharmaceutical Market. Key Trends ‘17
Retail Consolidation ‘16/’15: Federal &
Regional Pharmacy Chains share + 8%
Shift of State Pharmacy Chains to 44-FL Purchase 6 K Pharmaсies
Retention of Health Care Financing ‘17/‘16: +5,9%
«Reference price» System
New Pharmacy sales channel — remote pharmaceuticals sales
QR-coding – Pilot Project
Pharmaceutical market growth, 2015’01 – 2017’03
45
55
65
75
85
Billion, RUB
Retail segment
10
30
50
Billion, RUB 2015 2016 2017
State segment
+16% +13% +11%
-3% 32%
-28%
Q1’17/ Q1’16
+14%
MAT 03’16/ MAT 03’17
+13%
Q1’17/ Q1’16
-3%
MAT 03’16/ MAT 03’17
-3%
Q1’16 vs Q1’17 total market growth is 10% (RUB), MAT 03’16 vs MAT 03’17 is 10%
2017 - 10% Pharmaceutical Market Growth in RUB
2014 2015 2016 2017*
State segment Retail segment
720 775 875
Billion, RUB
650
Retail segment is expected to grow by more than 12%, Pharmaceutical market growth will significantly exceed official inflation rate
1 060 1 125
7% 960 11%
10% 1 240
According to AlphaRM’s analytical data
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