PoliticsJuly 12, 2016

“Israel wants Russia to

replace France as the

leader of new peace talks

on Palestine—probably

hoping the talks will then

fail because of U.S.

opposition,” Shanghai

International Studies

University professor says

By Javad Heirannia

Russian intervention in Syria forced Turkey, Israel torestore diplomatic alliance: expert

TEHRAN - A professor of Shanghai International

Studies University argues that Russia’s intervention in

Syria “has forced Turkey and Israel to reassess their

diplomatic alliances in order to retain some influence

over intense international negotiations that will affect

their vital interests.”

In an interview with the Tehran Times, Robert R. Bianchi

says, “Turkey is worried that Russia and the United States

are competing for Kurdish military assistance and that they

will promise statehood to seal the bargain.”

Following is the text of the interview:

Q: What made the Erdogan government to drop some of its preconditions to reconcile with Israel? Will it

affect the Turkish security or economy?

A: Turkish leaders are trying to adapt to multiple threats stemming from the prolonged war in Syria which

has pushed Turkey into conflicts with its neighbors while also aggravating ethnic and political tensions at

home. Turkey’s government knows that it needs help from several directions and it wants to mend fences

abroad so that it can focus on protecting internal security.

Russia’s intervention in Syria has forced Turkey and Israel to reassess their diplomatic alliances in order to

retain some influence over intense international negotiations that will affect their vital interests

—particularly Great Power discussions over the future of Syria, the political status of Kurdish territories,

and the possible creation of an independent Palestine.

Q: Why did Turkey decide to reconcile with Russia too? Will it affect the

ruling AKP party's policy in Syria?

A: Turkey is worried that Russia and the United States are competing for

Kurdish military assistance and that they will promise statehood to seal the

bargain. Israel wants Russia to replace France as the leader of new peace

talks on Palestine—probably hoping the talks will then fail because of U.S.

opposition. Both Turkey and Israel fear being left behind in a new balance of

power that will benefit the U.S. on one side along with Russia and Iran on

the other side. Hence, Turkey and Israel believe they need to cooperate as

much as possible to prevent the Americans and Russians from imposing

unacceptable deals that grant political rights—including statehood—to Kurds and Palestinians.

Q: What will be the effects of these changes on Turkey itself? Are the terrorist attacks inside Turkey

linked to AKP's foreign policy?

A: Inside Turkey, Erdogan will find little sympathy from other politicians even in his own party. Having made

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so many enemies at home, he is unable to muster the support needed to meet powerful pressures from

Turkey’s borders and beyond. He might be tempted toward military over-reaction in eastern Turkey, in Iraq,

in Syria or on all three fronts together. Such actions could easily backfire and put Erdogan at odds with

Turkey’s military leaders. Having recently dismissed Ahmet Davutoglu, the country’s most respected

diplomatic thinker, Erdogan has no Kissinger-like figure to insulate him from attack.

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