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Russia – A Geopolitical Conundrum Group 9 – Sec A

+Russia’s geopolitics are fairly straight forward…

The heartland has no formidable natural defenses – Mountain ranges or deserts to deter invasions

Plains only broken up by navigable rivers – thus they expanded making the invaders march longer to reach the heartland

Stretched supply lines and cold climates – distance is the primary defense

Blast from the pastNapoleon (1812) and Hitler (1940) – two military leaders who were defeated in different eras with similar military tactics

Step 1 - Retreat from the border towards the Heartland Step 2 – Wait while the “Winter is coming”Step 3 – Counterattack and wreak havoc

Post WWII - Stalin expanded Russia into Eastern Europe – thus stretching Russia into two continents

+They found a flaw and they had a no non-sense Russian solution…

They didn’t have a strong enough economy to attract neighboring states

So they started suppressing them and maintained control of the places

Cost of empire overwhelmed the economic capacity and they broke down

This threatens the leaders and requires them to recreate the buffer

Adding former USSR members to NATO appears as a direct threat to Russia’s dominance in the region – to which the west disagrees

He meddled in Ukraine and kept it allied with Russia – through Viktor Yankovych

What did he do when Yankovych was kicked out of office? Exactly like those before him – INVADED UKRAINE

What he can do? - If not make a neo – Eastern Bloc – he can at least divide NATO

What Putin is up to

+Russia enforcing three crucial geopolitical frontlines…

The Arctic The Crimean Peninsula

Kaliningrad

Since annexing it in March 2014, Russia has further militarized the region and entrenched itself in the peninsula

Believed to be developing a “rocket – artillery regiment equipped with multiple missile defense systems”

Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, based in Crimea being retrofitted for duty with new ships and equipment

Russian foreign minister claimed that Moscow has the authority for full nuclear deployment in the region

Small piece of territory wedged between the NATO states of Poland and Lithuania in the Baltic Sea

Heavily militarized during the Cold War era as a possible strike position

Short range ballistic missiles present since 2012 alongside the Russian Baltic Sea fleet and two airbases

Multiple unsubstantiated reports claim presence of nuclear weapons in the region

Cutting off the Lithuanian agreement

Russian military expansion in the Arctic has been a major goal in the past decade

The new military doctrine officially puts special focus on the region

This has been done to help ensure access to potential energy resources on the Arctic sea bed against possible Danish, Norwegian, Canadian and US claims

Estimates say upwards of 15% of earth’s remaining oil, 30% natural gas and 20% LNG are present

+Geopolitical Game Changers – redefining international landscapes

Ukraine Crisis is accelerating a power shift among the major players

Russia is a net geopolitical loser, Europe is emerging stronger, NATO is boosting defenses and China sees new openings

Moscow has overplayed its hand and is continuously losing on multiple fronts – combined with a tottering economy owing to growing state interference and a steep oil and possible gas price drop with the added ingredient of Western sanctions

On the other hand Europe is revitalizing ties with Russia’s western neighbours

Simultaneously NATO is boosting defense expenditure and Russia’s nuclear threats are only testing their patience

Anxious Central Asian nations have turned to Beijing as a welcome third party – with Beijing making massive infrastructure investments and taking gas eastwards – reframing geopolitical boundaries

Russia’s aggression abroad and repression at home have altered the basic assumptions of earlier western policy. By misjudging the tolerance of Europe, Moscow is bringing on the encirclement it fears.

+A storm is coming, Mr. Putin…

Russia’s worst crisis since the 1998 default – is no time for delight, a Russian meltdown cannot and will not have a happy ending

It is neither the soviet behemoth disconnected form the world economy, nor it is a struggling reform economy of 1990s – it is the world’s eight largest economy – well integrated in the global marketplace

Prolonged recession emanating from the US and EU sanctions and fall in oil prices will create a domino in the world economy – With EU the first in line as member states of the European Union – some emerging from recession – have extensive trade links with Russia

Apart from the economic consequences – the major turning point will be the ouster of Vladimir Putin from office – there will be a new “Putin” with draconian repressions and external military adventures

It becomes even more worrying when Russia maintains one of the world’s strongest military strengths and a big share of global nuclear stockpile – thus likely emergence of someone worse than Putin should not be taken lightly (the possible candidates includes an ex – cabinet minister, a former premier, a jailed oligarch and an anti – corruption activist)

With so much mutual inter – connectedness and global risk, “losing” Russia is equivalent to shooting oneself in the foot. Or the head.

What happened in Crimea was a terrible thing. What happened in Ukraine was a tragedy. What is happening in Russia right now is a threat to the global order.

+Testing waters for Russian Policy in the near future include… Cohesive working of Republican controlled Congress in the US and Democratic

administration on key issues is a major question mark

If the bitter rivalry is not supplanted by compromise – Russia will breathe easy

Changing US foreign policy

Economic Crisis

China’s seriousness in playing a part in rescuing Russian economy is a very important development

A possible assistance will cause a major shift in world order

China’s foreign policy

European Unity

ISIS dilemma

Putin’s strategy towards the deepening economic crisis

The choice is between – a “frozen” conflict in Ukraine or a settlement with the West

Whether Europe will stick to it’s unity on Ukraine or will Russian efforts and US disgruntlement drive a wedge eventually

Lot is dependent on economic state, political events (Britain 2015) and Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP)

Evolution of Islamic State and whether it can be prevented to expand in geographical scope of influence and creating a Al-Qaida-esque with an even greater destructive potential

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