Russia Freshly Cut Roses Market

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Demo-Version

Russia: Freshly Cut

Roses Market

Analysis and Forecast to 2017

August 2012

Marketing Research

http://www.russianmarketreport.com/

from 22 IndexBox Marketing © 2012 www.indexbox.ru

Market Research Russia: Freshly Cut Roses Market. August 2012 (Demo-version)

Brief Overview

The report on the Russian freshly cut roses market contains:

Analysis and forecast of market dynamics;

Structure of consumption by region;

Analysis of domestic production, market shares of the main market players;

Analysis of exports and imports;

Analysis of factors, influencing the development of the market;

Assessment and forecast of market development;

Financial and economic profiles of the leading companies in the industry.

Methodology:

Expert interviews with top managers of the largest players on the market;

Analysis of information, received from the main market participants;

An analysis of statistical information:

o Federal Service of State Statistics (Rosstat);

o The Federal Customs Service (FTS);

o The Ministry of Economic Development;

o The Federal Tax Service;

o Industry associations.

The report will allow you to:

1. Identify key indicators of the market, build your own business forecasts, based on

market data;

2. Evaluate the growth potential and threats in the market.

The report contains 155 pages, 33 tables and 48 figures.

Key figures presented in the report on the Russian freshly cut roses market:

Volumes of production, exports and imports;

Indicators of market development;

Consumption indicators.

The report contains the consensus market forecast based on the average value of the

forecasts of market participants. As market experts are considered: manufacturers,

importers, wholesale distributors, high-volume consumers, professional associations and

unions, and trade publications. The experts, participating in the survey, are provided with

special conditions on the purchase of the reports.




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completed over 1000 industry studies which are updated on a regular basis.

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verify all secondary information used in the report.

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the economy. Cross-analysis of related industries enables our clients to get a

complete picture of the market of interest.

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Research Design

The purpose of the study is to analyze the state of the Russian freshly cut roses market and

build a forecast of the industry in the medium term.

Geography of the research: Russia

Methodology

1. Analysis of secondary market data:

Secondary data refers to data from the Internet (industry portals, competitors’ sites,

shopping sites, articles and reviews, reference materials), specialized publications, state and

private media companies, marketing agencies, commercial databases, “IndexBox

Marketing” own research.

2. Analysis of Materials from Market Participants (price lists, brochures, etc.):

Data collection from market participants is needed to analyze the specifics of the market

and the parties involved in it, their pricing and assortment policy. Data on market

participants is gathered during the analysis of secondary information, and also by sending

requests for price lists and other presentation materials.

3. Expert Interviews with Market Participants

The analysis of secondary information is completed by expert interviews with

representatives of market participant companies – manufacturers and trading companies.

Our approach to the estimation

The consensus market forecast is the average value of the forecasts of market participants

(experts).

Experts

As market experts are considered: manufacturers, importers, wholesale distributors, high-

volume consumers, professional associations and unions, and trade publications. Expert

opinions are collected during telephone interviews conducted by IndexBox on a regular

basis (the standard is every six months, but can be more often, based on a special request

or under conditions of high volatility in the market). IndexBox has created an extensive

database of experts within key industries. The experts, participating in the survey, are

provided with special conditions on the purchase of the reports.




Accuracy of forecasts

The accuracy of forecasts is verified by experts in the given industry, based on the historical

period (3 years). In accordance with this accuracy, each expert weighs out the forecasts to

create the overall average forecast

Indicators

1. Consumption: Consumption is the main index estimated by our experts and features

the dynamics of consumption in real terms in the short to medium term. Experts give

an estimate of the potential volume of consumption in accordance with their

expectations and production plans (for manufacturers).

2. Internal production: It is based on the projected volume of consumption and production

capacity in any given industry, assessing, of course, and factoring in the dynamics of

domestic production.

3. Imports and Exports: Takes into account the retrospective dynamics of export-import

operations, strengths and weaknesses of the domestic production, changes in

legislation, the macroeconomic situation in the countries of the supplier (beneficiary) of

a product, an assessment of the dynamics of imports and exports.




Table of Contents About IndexBox

1. Executive summary

2. Research design

3. Description and classification of roses

3.1. Hybrid tea roses

3.2. Floribunda roses

3.3. Spray roses

4. Characteristics of the Russian freshly cut roses market

4.1. Volume and dynamics of the Russian freshly cut roses market in 2005 - 2011.

Forecast for 2012 - 2017

4.2. Structure of the freshly cut roses market: production, exports, imports,

consumption

4.3. Structure of the freshly cut roses market by type in 2011

4.4. Structure of the Russian freshly cut roses market by price

5. Characteristics of the domestic production of freshly cut roses in 2005 - 2011.

Forecast until 2017

5.1. Volume and dynamics of the production of freshly cut roses in 2005 - 2011.

Forecast until 2017

5.2. Structure of the production of freshly cut roses by Federal Districts in 2011

5.3. Characteristics of the Russian manufacturers of freshly cut roses

5.3.1. LLC "Yug Agro"

5.3.2. LLC "Greenhouse complex "Mokshanskiy"

5.3.3. LLC "New Holland"

5.3.4. OJSC "Galanthus"

5.3.5. OJSC "Rose Garden"

5.3.6. "World of Flowers"

5.3.7. TK "Podosinki"

5.3.8. GUP Moscow Agrokombinat "Southern"

5.3.9. LLC "Flowers of Udmurtia"

5.3.10. "Green House"

5.3.11. LLC "Northern Dream"

5.3.12. "Ulyanovsk State Farm of Ornamental Horticulture"

5.3.13. LLC "Chekhov Garden"

5.3.14. CJSC "Rose Hill"

5.4. Average manufacturers’ prices of freshly cut roses

6. Characteristics of the imports of freshly cut roses to the Russian market

6.1. Volume and dynamics of the imports of roses

6.2. Manufacturing countries, leading suppliers of freshly cut roses to Russia

6.3. Foreign companies, manufacturers of the roses, imported to Russia

6.4. Russian companies, recipients of the imports of freshly cut roses

6.5. Structure of the imports rose by recipient regions




7. Characteristics of the Russian exports of freshly cut roses

8. Factors, influencing the development of the freshly cut roses market

8.1. Level of welfare of the population

9. Characteristics of the distribution on the market of freshly cut roses

9.1. Value chain formation on the market of fresh cut roses

9.2. Distribution of freshly cut roses by retail format

9.3. Wholesale and retail distributors of fresh cut roses

9.3.1. LLC "Galax"

9.3.2. LLC "Company "UralTorgService"

9.3.3. LLC "Moneymaker"

9.3.4. Company "7 Flowers"

9.3.5. LLC "Aalsmeer"

9.3.6. Group of companies "Business Bouquet"

9.3.7. Company «Starlight Cash & Carry»

9.3.8. Wholesale flower center "Azalea"

9.3.9. AMF

10. Characteristics of the consumption of freshly cut roses

10.1. Volume and dynamics of the consumption of freshly cut roses in 2005 - 2011

10.2. Consumption of freshly cut roses by Federal Districts in 2011

10.3. Seasonality of consumption of freshly cut roses

10.4. Balance between production and consumption of freshly cut roses

11. Forecast for the development of the freshly cut roses market in 2012 - 2017

11.1. Preconditions for the development of the Russian economy

11.2. Scenarios for the development of the freshly cut roses market

Appendix 1. Profiles of the leading producers of freshly cut roses

LLC "Greenhouse complex "Mokshanskiy"

LLC "New Holland"

“Greenhouse complex “Stupino” 1

OJSC "Rose Garden"

"World of Flowers"

TK "Podosinki"

GUP Moscow Agrokombinat "Southern"

"Green House"

LLC "Chekhov Garden"

CJSC "Rose Hill"




List of tables

Table 1. Volume and dynamics of supply of freshly cut roses in the wholesale channel in

2005 – 2011 and forecast until 2017, in millions of units

Table 2. Characteristics of the main producers of freshly cut roses in Russia in 2011

Table 3. Average producers’ prices for freshly cut roses in Russia in 2011

Table 4. Volume of the imports of freshly cut roses by production countries in 2011, in

millions of units

Table 5. Volume of the imports of freshly cut roses by production countries in 2011, in

millions of USD

Table 6. Volume of the imports of freshly cut roses by production countries in January - May

2012, in millions of units

Table 7. Volume of the imports of freshly cut roses by production countries in January - May

2012, in millions of USD

Table 8. Volume of the imports of freshly cut roses by production companies in 2011, in

millions of units

Table 9. Volume of the imports of freshly cut roses by production companies in 2011, in

millions of USD

Table 10. Volume of the imports of freshly cut roses by production companies in January-

May 2012, in millions of units

Table 11. Volume of the imports of freshly cut roses by production companies in January-

May 2012, in millions of USD

Table 12. Volume of the imports of freshly cut roses by importing companies in 2011, in

millions of units

Table 13. Volume of the imports of freshly cut roses by importing companies in 2011, in

millions of USD

Table 14. Volume of the imports of freshly cut roses by importing companies in January -

May 2012, in millions of units

Table 15. Volume of the imports of freshly cut roses by importing companies in January -

May 2012, in millions of USD

Table 16. Volume of the imports of freshly cut roses by recipient regions in 2011, in millions

of units

Table 17. Volume of the imports of freshly cut roses by recipient regions in 2011, in millions

of USD

Table 18. Volume of the imports of freshly cut roses by recipient regions in January - May


Table 19. Volume of the imports of freshly cut roses by recipient regions in January - May

2012, in millions of USD

Table 20. Data of the Russian exports of freshly cut roses in 2011, excluding Kazakhstan

Table 21. Data of the Russian exports of freshly cut roses in January - May 2012, excluding

Kazakhstan

Table 22. Real disposable income in the Russian Federation in January 2008 - February

2012




Table 23. Dynamics of the disposable resources of households (per 100 people), in

thousands of RUR in Russia in 2005 - 2010

Table 24. Average per capita income of the population of the Russian Federation in 2005 -

2011, in RUR per month

Table 25. Deviation of the per capita income by Federal Districts from the average for

Russia in 2005 - 2010

Table 26. Differentiation of income in 2005 - 2011

Table 27. Structure of the resources of households of different socio - economic categories

in 2010, in % to the total

Table 28. Distribution of the population of the Russian Federation in terms of income in

2007 - 2010, in % to the total

Table 29. Value chain formation of roses by trade formats

Table 30. Value chain formation of roses by retail trade formats

Table 31. The largest distributors of freshly cut flowers in the Russian Federation

Table 32. Consumption of freshly cut roses by months in 2011, in millions of units

Table 33. Forecast for the balance between supply and demand of freshly cut roses in the

wholesale channel in 2011 - 2017, in millions of units




List of Figures

Fig. 1. Volume of supply of freshly cut roses in the wholesale channel in 2005 - 2011 and

forecast for 2012 - 2017 (base scenario), in millions of units

Fig. 2. Volume of supply of freshly cut roses in the wholesale channel in 2005 - 2011 and

forecast for 2012 - 2017 (base scenario) (forecast in wholesale prices in June 2012), in

billions of RUR

Fig. 3. Volume of the final consumption of freshly cut roses in the retail channel in 2005 -

2011 and forecast for 2012 - 2017 (base scenario), in millions of units

Fig. 4. Volume of the final consumption of freshly cut roses in the retail channel in 2005 -

2011 and forecast for 2012 - 2017 (base scenario) (forecast in retail prices in June 2012),

in billions of RUR

Fig. 5. Dynamics and pattern of supply of freshly cut roses in the wholesale channel in 2005

- 2011 and forecast until 2017, in millions of units

Fig. 6. Structure of the freshly cut roses market by origin in physical terms in 2011

Fig. 7. Structure of the freshly cut roses market by type in 2011 in physical terms in the

wholesale channel

Fig. 8. Structure of the freshly cut roses market in the retail channel in volume terms in

2011

Fig. 9. Production of freshly cut roses in 2005 - 2011. Forecast until 2017, in millions of

units

Fig. 10. Structure of production of freshly cut roses by Federal Districts in 2011 in physical

terms

Fig. 11. Shares of the companies in the total production of freshly cut roses in 2011 in

physical terms

Fig. 12. Dynamics of the imports of freshly cut roses in Russia in 2011, in millions of units

Fig. 13. Dynamics of the imports of freshly cut roses in Russia in 2011, in millions of USD

Fig. 14. Dynamics of the imports of freshly cut roses in Russia in January - May 2012, in

millions of units

Fig. 15. Dynamics of the imports of freshly cut roses in Russia in January - May 2012, in

millions of USD

Fig. 16. Structure of the imports of freshly cut roses in Russia by production countries in

2011, in units


2011, in USD


January - May 2012, in units


January - May 2012, in millions of USD

Fig. 20. Structure of the imports of freshly cut roses in Russia by production companies in

2011, in units


2011, in USD







January - May 2012, in USD

Fig. 24. Structure of the imports of freshly cut roses in Russia by importing companies in

2011, in units


2011, in USD




January - May 2012, in USD

Fig. 28. Structure of the imports of freshly cut roses in Russia by sending regions in 2011,

in units

Fig. 29. Structure of the imports of freshly cut roses in Russia by sending regions in 2011,

in USD

Fig. 30. Structure of the imports of freshly cut roses in Russia by sending regions in January

- May 2012, in units

Fig. 31. Structure of the imports of freshly cut roses in Russia by sending regions in January

- May 2012, in USD

Fig. 32. Quarterly dynamics of the real disposable income of the population of Russia, in %,

to the corresponding period of the previous year

Fig. 33. Dynamics of the nominal and real incomes of the Russian population in 2005 - 2011

Fig. 34. Average deviation of the per capita income in the Federal Districts from the average

for Russia in 2005 - 2010

Fig. 35. Distribution of the total monetary income in 2011 by groups

Fig. 36. Structure of the Russian population by income level in 2010, in % to the total

Fig. 37. Structure of the distribution of freshly cut roses by retail format

Fig. 38. Dynamics of consumption of freshly cut roses in the retail channel in Russia in 2005

- 2011, in millions of units

Fig. 39. Dynamics of consumption of freshly cut roses in the retail channel in Russia in 2005

- 2011, in billions of RUR

Fig. 40. Structure of consumption of freshly cut roses in the retail channel by Federal

Districts of the Russian Federation in 2011, in physical terms

Fig. 41. Dynamics of consumption of freshly cut roses in the retail channel in Russia in


Fig. 42. Forecast of the balance between supply and demand of freshly cut roses in the

wholesale channel in 2005 - 2017

Fig. 43. Base scenario for the development of the freshly cut roses market in the retail

channel in 2011 - 2017, in millions of units

Fig. 44. Base scenario for the development of the freshly cut roses market in the retail

channel in 2011 - 2017, in billions of RUR (forecast in retail prices of June 2012)

Fig. 45. Conservative scenario for the development of the freshly cut roses market in the

retail channel in 2011 - 2017, in millions of units




Fig. 46. Conservative scenario for the development of the freshly cut roses market in the

retail channel in 2011 - 2017, in billions of RUR (forecast in retail prices of June 2012)

Fig. 47. Pessimistic scenario for the development of the freshly cut roses market in the

retail channel in 2011 – 2017, in millions of units

Fig. 48. Pessimistic scenario for the development of the freshly cut roses market in the

retail channel in 2011 – 2017, in billions of RUR (forecast in retail prices of June 2012)




Executive Summary

…

The volume of supply of freshly cut roses in the wholesale channel in 2011 amounted to …

million units, which was 6% more than in 2010. A difficult year for the market was 2009 –

the imports decreased by …% and production - by …%. The decreasing demand for freshly

cut roses was primarily associated with a decrease in welfare, resulting from the global

financial crisis.

The volume of imports of freshly cut roses to Russia in 2011 amounted to … million

units. Major producing countries that supply the flowers to Russia, were: Ecuador - …

million, Kenya - … million, and Colombia - … million units.

Despite the fact that the volume of consumption of freshly cut roses in the wholesale

channel in the crisis of 2009 decreased by …%, by the beginning of 2012 the market

reached its pre-crisis level. The consumption of freshly cut roses in the wholesale channel in

2011 amounted to … million units. A large share of the market belongs to foreign

producers. The volume of production in 2011 amounted to … million units, which was …%

higher than in 2010

…

Key figures and

conclusions

about the market




4. Characteristics of the Russian

freshly cut roses market

...

4.1. Volume and dynamics of the Russian freshly cut roses

market in 2005 - 2011. Forecast for 2012 - 2017

The freshly cut roses market has its own peculiarity. Because flowers and roses in particular

are considered perishable, the retail trade loses 15% to 25% of roses on the market. So, it

is worth considering two distribution channels: volume of supply of freshly cut roses in the

wholesale channel and volume of the final consumption of freshly cut roses in the retail

channel (which loses 15% to 20% of the roses of the wholesale channel).

The volume of supply of freshly cut roses in the wholesale channel in 2011 amounted to …

million units, which was 6% more than in 2010. A difficult year for the market was 2009 –

the imports decreased by …% and production - by …%. The decreasing demand for freshly

cut roses was primarily associated with a decrease in welfare, resulting from the global

financial crisis.

Source: Data (Expert opinion, “FTS”), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

Fig. 1. Volume of supply of freshly cut roses in the wholesale channel in 2005

- 2011 and forecast for 2012 - 2017 (base scenario), in millions of units




Source: Data (Expert opinion, “FTS”), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

Fig. 2. Volume of supply of freshly cut roses in the wholesale channel in 2005

- 2011 and forecast for 2012 - 2017 (base scenario) (forecast in wholesale

prices in June 2012), in billions of RUR




4.2. Structure of the freshly cut roses market: production,

exports, imports, consumption

The volume of imports of freshly cut roses to Russia in 2011 amounted to … million

units. Major producing countries that supply the flowers to Russia, were: Ecuador - …

million, Kenya - … million, and Colombia - … million units.

Table 1. Volume and dynamics of supply of freshly cut roses in the wholesale

channel in 2005 – 2011 and forecast until 2017, in millions of units

2009 2010 2011F 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F

Volume of production

In units … … … … … … … … …

In %, to

the previous

year

…% …% …% …% …% …% …% …%

Volume of

exports In units

… … … … … … … … …

In %, to the

previous year

…% …% …% …% …% …% …% …%

Volume of imports

In units … … … … … … … … …

In %, to the

previous

year

…% …% …% …% …% …% …% …%

Volume of total supply

In units … … … … … … … … …

In %, to the

previous year

…% …% …% …% …% …% …% …%

Source: Data (“Rosstat”, “FTS”, Expert opinion), Analysis (“IndexBox”)




5. Characteristics of the domestic

production of freshly cut roses in 2005

- 2011. Forecast until 2017

…

5.1 Volume and dynamics of the production of freshly cut roses

in 2005 - 2011. Forecast until 2017

The growth rates of production of freshly cut roses in Russia in 2006 was …%, in 2007 -

…%, in 2008 - …%, in 2009 - …%, and in 2010 - …%. The volume of production in 2011

amounted to … million units, which was …% higher than in 2010.

Characteristics of domestic production

- Volume and dynamics by type of

product

- Production capacities

- Structure of production

- Main producers and their market shares




Source: Data (“Rosstat”), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

Fig. 3. Production of freshly cut roses in 2005 – 2011. Forecast until 2017, in

millions of units




5.3 Characteristics of the Russian manufacturers of freshly cut

roses

Table 2. Characteristics of the main producers of freshly cut roses in Russia in

2011

Company Region Assortment

Greenhouse

area for roses,

in hectares

Cut roses in

2011, in

millions of

units

Plans

for

2012

“Yug-Agro” Krasnodar region Roses …

… … … …

… … … …

… … … …

… … … …

… … … …

OTHERS … …

TOTAL … …

Source: Data (Company data), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

…




6. Characteristics of the imports of

freshly cut roses to the Russian

market 6.1. Volume and dynamics of the imports of roses

…

The volume of imports of freshly cut roses in 2011 was … tons. The largest amount of

freshly cut roses was imported in …, when were imported … tons.

Source: Data (“FTS”), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

Fig. 4. Dynamics of the imports of freshly cut roses in Russia in 2011, in

millions of units

…




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Russia Freshly Cut Roses Market

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