Rural Development Council, October 2009

The Climate Change (Scotland) Act – A

Framework for a Low Carbon Scotland

Philip Wright, Deputy Director, Scottish Government

Overview

• UK Climate Change Act 2008

• Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009

• Adaptation

• Delivery of emission reduction targets

UK Climate Change Act 2008

• 80% greenhouse gas emissions reduction by 2050

• Carbon budgets – 2008-22, 34% or 42% (linked to EU-level target increasing from 20% to 30%)

• Committee on Climate Change

• Enabling power for trading schemes

• Adaptation

• No country shares or mechanisms prescribed

Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009

• Climate Change (Scotland) Bill passed by the Scottish Parliament on 24 June 2009. Received Royal Assent and became an Act on 4 August.

• 2050 target – reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80%

• 2020 target - currently set at 42% with a power to change based on expert advice from UK Committee on Climate Change.

Summary

Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009

• Targets will include Scotland’s share of international aviation and international shipping emissions.

• Statutory framework of annual targets set in secondary legislation.

• Annual targets will be set in batches at least 12 years in advance (except first batch). First annual targets (2010 – 2022) required by 1 June 2010.

Targets

Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009

• Annual targets to be based on expert advice from UK Committee on Climate Change.

• Future – the Act enables the designation of a Scottish advisory body (Scottish Committee on Climate Change) or enhanced Scottish public body.

• Limits on the use of carbon credits.• Section 8 – domestic effort target• Section 21 – limits for specific years

• Scottish Ministers committed to delivering emissions reductions in Scotland.

Climate Change (Scotland) Act

• Part 5• Adaptation to climate change• Land use strategy (2011), muirburn, forestry• Action plan for promotion of energy efficiency• Action plan for promotion of renewable heat• Energy performance of non-domestic buildings• Energy performance of living accommodation• Climate change burdens• Tenement Management Scheme• Permitted development rights – non domestic and domestic• Development plans• Promotion of water conservation and water-use efficiency• Scottish civil estate – procurement and annual reporting• Waste reduction and recycling.

• Part 6• Public engagement strategy• Assessment of the GHG impact of the Scottish budget

What else is in the Act?

Adaptation

Adaptation

• UK Act Risk Assessment

• Scottish Act reports

• Climate Change Adaptation Framework

Source: SNIFFER A Handbook of Climate Trends Across Scotland

Scottish climate is already changing

Since 1961…

•Temperatures have risen in every season

•Become 20% wetter

•Growing season earlier and longer

•25% fewer days of frost

•Snow season has shortened

By the 2050s…

If emissions continue at their present rate:

Eastern

Scotland

Northern

Scotland

Western

Scotland

Summer average

Temperature

+ 2.3ºC + 2.0ºC + 2.4ºC

Winter average temperature

+ 1.7ºC + 1.7ºC + 1.9ºC

Summer precipitation

- 12% - 10% - 12%

Winter precipitation

+ 10% + 13% + 15%

Why is 2°C bad?

Increased risks of eg:

•Water shortage•Flooding•Rising sea levels•Diseases

•Warming not shared evenly – some countries warm more than others

Dr Rajendra K Pachauri, IPCC Chair, Copenhagen, March 2009

By the 2080s…

If emissions continue at their present rate:

Eastern

Scotland

Northern

Scotland

Western

Scotland

Summer average

Temperature

+ 3.5ºC + 3.0ºC + 3.5ºC

Winter average temperature

+ 2.3ºC + 2.2ºC + 2.6ºC

Summer precipitation

- 16% - 11% - 15%

Winter precipitation

+ 12% + 17% + 21%

Climate Change Delivery Plan

•Published on 17 June, before Bill passed•Measures to meet 34% and 42% Interim targets then proposed•Transformational measures to set Scotland on path to 2050•Bridge to detailed, statutory Report on Proposals and Policies

Climate Change Delivery Plan

Scotland’s emissions: Past70 MtCO2e in 199058 MtCO2e in 2006……….

- 17MtCO2e on 2006

Future41 MtCO2e in 2020………..

- 44MtCO2e on 2006

14 MtCO2e in 2050(Including international aviation and shipping and EU ETS)

Scotland’s Emissions

The challenge for all parts of Scottish life

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Total net GHG emissions in 2007 were 81% of base year emissions

Land Use , Land Use Change & Forestry

- need to fall to 20% by 2050

How will we choosewhat to use fossilfuels for in 2050?

2007 2050

Agriculture

Energy Supply

Transport

Business (incl. industrial processes)

Residential

Public

Waste

International Aviation

International Shipping

What this means by sector?

2020 emissions - 34% world 2020 emissions - 42% world

MtCO2e MtCO2e MtCO2e 1990 2006 MtCO2e 1990 2006

Traded sector allocation1 22.8 17.5 - -23% 14.2 - -38%

Phase I traded sector 20.4

Not traded in 2006 but traded in Phase II 2.4

Aviation - domestic and international 1.1 2.0 1.8 +69% -9% 1.8 +69% -9%

Other, non-traded2 3.8 4.3 - +13% 4.3 - +13%

Other, before ETS introduced 33.2

Heat 10.2 9.3 5.4 -47% -42% 5.0 -51% -46%

Domestic Buildings 7.8 7.3

Non-domestic buildings 2.4 2.1

Transport 13.7 14.5 11.2 -18% -23% 10.0 -27% -32%

Road 9.2 10.5

Rail 0.2 0.3

Off-road 1.6 1.6

Shipping - domestic and international 2.6 2.2

Waste 5.7 2.5 1.5 -73% -39% 1.5 -73% -39%

Rural land use (excluding woodland) 14.5 12.7 12.0 -17% -6% 11.4 -21% -10%

Agricultural and other land use - net sources3 16.9 15.7

Agricultural and other land use - net sinks -2.4 -2.9

Woodland -8.2 -10.1 -7.4 * * -7.7 * *

TOTAL after adjustment for EU ETS 70.1 57.6 46.3 -34% -20% 40.5 -42% -30%

% change against ... % change against ...

1990 emissions

2006 emissions

Transformational Outcomes

•Decarbonised electricity generation sector by 2030

•Decarbonised heat sector by 2050 with significant progress by 2030

•Almost complete decarbonisation of road transport by 2050 with significant progress by 2030

•Comprehensive approach to ensure that carbon is fully factored into decisions about rural land use

Agriculture, land use and forestry

34% world

•Improvement in livestock genetics

•Best practice in nutrient management regimes

•Further development of anaerobic digestion

•Protecting high carbon soils

•Afforestation of 10 000ha/yr

42% world

•Higher uptake of all of the above

•Likely to be through regulation

•Afforestation of 15 000ha/yr

Transformational outcomes

•Fully incorporate carbon (incl. the cost of carbon) into land use decision making

A challenge but also opportunities..

Economic opportunities in:

• Renewable energy• Carbon Capture and Storage• Energy efficiency products and services• Low carbon technologies

Stern – doing nothing and suffering the consequences of irreversible climate change is much more expensive than tackling emissions

Thank you

More information available at: www.scotland.gov.uk/climatechange