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INDIA FOREX ADVISORS RESEARCH | CURRENCY INDIAN MACRO ECONOMICS Rupee may hit 60 by June 2013

Rupee may hit 60 by June 2013

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INDIA FOREX ADVISORS RESEARCH | CURRENCY INDIAN MACRO ECONOMICS


Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary……….……………………………………………3-4 2. Pace of the Rupee………….………...………………………………………… 5-6

3. Domestic factors affecting the Rupee…….......................................... 7-12

4. International factors affecting the Rupee …..………………………13-17

5. Risk aversion ………………………………..................................................18-23

6. RBI’s stance on the depreciating Rupee…………….…………........23-25

7. Black Swan events……………………………………………….……………26-27

IFA Research Team

Amit Pabari

[email protected]

Anita Joshi

[email protected]

Manpreet Kaur Doad

[email protected]




Major Domestic Triggers:

CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT & FISCAL DEFICIT

WEAK IIP & HIGH INTEREST RATES

INSUFFICIENT OF FDI AND FII FLOWS

REGULATORY & POLICY PARALYSIS IN GOVERNMENT

POSSIBILITY OF RATING DOWNGRADE

UNCONTROLLABLE INFLATION

FALLING GDP GROWTH

SHORT TERM DEBT MATURITY OF $ 147 BILLION BY

MAR- 2013.

Executive Summary: Indian Rupee is entering A New Normal Forex Rate

Need some Heading

Major International Triggers:

EUROPEAN CRISIS – HITTING EMERGING MARKET

FLOWS

SLOWDOWN IN CHINA – HITTING COMMODITY DRIVEN

MARKETS

STRONG DOLLAR INDEX DUE TO RISK AVERSION

STIMULUS MEASURES OF CENTRAL BANK LOSING ITS

IMPORTANCE

MONEY FLOWING ACROSS SAFER AND LIQUID BONDS




RBI’S STANCE: RBI’s Intervention: Introducing policy measures rather than aggressively selling US dollars.

RBI’s Focus: Curbing periodic volatility rather than controlling the exchange rate.

RBI’s Priority: Controlling inflation on a priority, even if it means sacrificing growth.

OVERALL OUTLOOK:

Overall, USD/INR displays a bullish trend: We estimate USD/INR to likely continue this trend in FY2013 and target a 58-60 level. We expect the worst case USD/INR pair to make a base around 52.10 levels in the next one year.

Indian GDP: We expect India’s GDP to likely to slow down further to around 6% and below.

Emerging Markets: India will likely remain an Underperformer across all Emerging Markets.

Dollar index and Gold: We expect the Dollar index to remain bullish with our target of 87-89 levels. Gold appears Overbought and may hit $1435. Industrial commodities will likely remain weak.

International Currencies: We believe international currencies to remain weak with the Euro having a target of 1.16, GBP 1.50, Yen 85 and the Australian Dollar Parity.

US 10-year Treasury yield: We estimate yield should witness 1.20% in FY2013.




PACE OF USD/INR – UNCONVENTIONAL MOVEMENTS SINCE THE 90S AND WILL BE THERE IN THE FUTURE




Chart Start Date Closing Value End Date Closing Value No of Days Movement

A 1-Jan-95 31.38 5-Feb-96 37.9 254 Depreciated by 17.20%

B 13-Aug-97 35.78 19-Aug-98 43.10 223 Depreciated by 16.98 %

C 6-Aug-02 48.90 31-Mar-04 43.60 401 Appreciated by 10.84%

D 9-Aug-04 46.18 31-Dec-04 43.46 102 Appreciated by 5.89%

E 2-Aug-06 46.63 24-Dec-07 39.28 324 Appreciated by 15.77 %

F 7-Jan-08 39.26 2-Mar-09 51.97 279 Depreciated by 24.45%

G 26-Jul-11 44.07 22-Jun-12 57.12 249 Depreciated by 22.86%

Legend: The rows A, B, F and G show the steep trend of depreciation in the rupee, while rows C, D and E show the appreciating trend in the rupee.

It is clearly evident that the pace of depreciation has been much steeper than the pace of appreciation since 1995; hence we feel that the

pressure of depreciation may continue over the next 1-2 years in an erratic manner even as we see a period of appreciation for a longer-

than-expected time. The above chart depicts the major moves (appreciation and depreciation) of the USD/INR from 1996 onwards.

The rupee is seen weakening over a period of time against the dollar. It is observed that the pace of depreciation has been faster than that

of appreciation. Though the appreciation has taken more time, the percentage change has been lower than the percentage of

depreciation.

As seen in the above table, row A indicates that the rupee took 254 days to depreciate by more than 17% whereas row C indicates it has

taken more than 400 days to appreciate by a mere 10%. A similar situation is seen between rows E and F, where the rupee has taken more

than 300 days to appreciate by 15% while on the other hand, it has depreciated by more than 24.45% in 279 days.




LOCAL INDICATORS– SLOWING GDP GROWTH

LOCAL FACTORS -GDP

Source: Trading Economics, IFA Research *Rupee Yearly Average taken / GDP Year End Rate

Trend:

India’s GDP growth has declined to 6.1%

in the year 2011, which was the slowest

since 2003. Generally, when the growth

deteriorates, it impacts Rupee

movement adversely.

Outlook:

The growth in the coming quarters is

likely to be around 6% or below on

account of the global slowdown and a

delay in policy action on the part of

the Government.

Triggers:

Declining IIP due to high interest rates

Reduced capital formation

Widening fiscal deficit crowding out private

investments.

4.5

6.7

1.6

11.8

5.5

9.7 9.4 9.7

6.17.3

8.3

6.1 6.5

44.9647.18 48.59

46.54 45.29 44.11 45.341.31

43.39

48.3645.85 46.82

52.52

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (Est)

USD/

INR

GDP

%

GDP USD/INR




LOCAL INDICATORS – WIDENING CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT

Source: Trading Economics, IFA Research *Rupee Yearly Average taken/ CAD Year End

-4.5

1.47.1 8.8

0.8

-10.3-9.5

-11.3

-29.0

-21.1

-51.8-56.0

44.9647.18 48.59 46.54

45.29 44.11 45.3

41.31

43.39

48.3645.85 46.82

52.52

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-60.0

-50.0

-40.0

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

CAD

($ B

ILLI

ON

)

USD/

INR

CAD (Billion $) USD/INR

Trend:

The current account deficit (CAD) has

widened drastically and it accounts for

more than 4% of the GDP (the lack of

FII inflows and FDI is putting further

pressure on CAD).

Outlook:

The CAD is likely to improve in the coming

months owing to reduced imports in gold and

other semi precious stones and pearls. If there

is a heightened risk of rising crude prices again

due to tensions between the US and Iran

escalating in late 2012-13, then we could see

further pressure on CAD.

Triggers:

Inelastic demand for crude and

heavy demand for precious metals,

pearls and semi precious stones.

Slowing exports and increasing

imports.




LOCAL INDICATORS – FISCAL DEFICIT CONTINUES TO REMAIN HIGH

Source: Trading Economics, IFA Research * Rupee Yearly Average taken/ FD Year End

Trend:

Fiscal deficit has been consistently

holding above 5% due to increased

Government expenditure owing to

the high subsidies for petroleum and

agriculture products.

Outlook:

Fiscal deficit will continue to remain high due to

populist policies of the Government prior to the

General Elections, 2014. We could see some

respite due to some key public sector

undertakings (PSUs) opting for healthy

disinvestment.

Triggers:

Higher subsidy bills

Policy Paralysis

Lower tax collections

Failure of the Government to meet

its disinvestment targets.

-3.9 -4.4-4.7

-3.5-3.3 -3.3 -3.5 -3.1

-7.8

-6.9

-5.1-4.6

-5.1

44.9647.18 48.59 46.54

45.29 44.11 45.341.31

43.39

48.3645.85 46.82

52.52

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-9.0

-8.0

-7.0

-6.0

-5.0

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

Fisc

al D

efic

it %

of G

DP

USD

/ IN

R

Fiscal Deficit % of GDP USD/INR




LOCAL INDICATORS – IIP HIT BY HIGH INTEREST RATES

Trend:

Industrial production, which accounts

for 27% of GDP, has contracted

sharply since 2009.Sluggishness in the

industrial index of production is

clearly visible due to high interest

rates.

Outlook:

The slowdown in industrial output will persist

further if there are no signs of interest rate

cuts; if there is no active policy action by the

Government on FDI; and if there is no revival

of the infrastructure segment.

Triggers:

High interest rates

Slowing investment activity due to

loss of confidence relating to

Government policies.

Slowdown in global demand

Source: Trading Economics, IFA Research *Rupee Yearly Average taken/ IIP figure Year End

3.5 3

6.27.4

8.9

5.7

13.7 13.5

-1.6

9.5

8.12.5

-1.8

44.9647.18 48.59 46.54

45.29 44.11 45.341.31

43.39

48.3645.85 46.82

52.52

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Jun-12

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

IIP (%

)

USD

INR

IIP USD/INR




LOCAL INDICATORS –WPI ON A RISING TREND

Trend:

There is an increasing trend in WPI

despite a series of interest rate cuts

by the RBI. This is due to supply side

factors contributing to food inflation,

low interest rates and repeated

liquidity injections from industrial

nations.

Outlook:

WPI may not come down drastically unless

interest rates are reduced due to poor

monsoon / rain deficit & increasing oil

prices.

Triggers:

Rising food inflation due to supply side

factors

Repeated liquidity injections from

industrial nations

High prices of imported goods like iron &

steel, chemicals & precious stones.

4.38

6.96

4.01

6.68 7.15

9.45

7.74 7.25

44.11 45.3

41.3143.39

48.3645.85 46.82

52.52

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

10.00

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Jun-12

WPI

(%)

USD/

INR

WPI USD/INR

Source: Trading Economics, IFA Research *Rupee Yearly Average taken/ WPI figure Year End




LOCAL INDICATORS – BALANCE OF PAYMENTS TREND PEGGED TO FII-FDI INFLOWS

Source: CEIC, IFA Research *Rupee Yearly Average taken/BOP March End

6,174

11,951

17,185

30,819

25,552

15,568

35,638

90,848

-20,519

13,453 16,044

-10,400

47.18 48.5946.54

45.29

44.11 45.3

41.3143.39

48.3645.85 46.82

52.52

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-40,000

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

BOP

USD/

INR

BOP USD/INR

Trend:

BOPs trend is totally dependent on FIIs

and FDI flows into the country.

Outlook:

Can improve ahead provided the

Government implements policies with

an objective to attract foreign capital.

Triggers:

•High current account deficit and declining

capital inflows.

•Reduction of flows from European countries

and banks.

•Declining ROI for FIIs and other investors to a

depreciating rupee.




INTERNATIONAL INDICATORS – US TREASURY YIELD HAS AN INVERSE RELATION WITH THE INR

Source: Trading Economics, IFA Research *Rupee & US Yield Yearly Average taken

44.96

47.18 48.5946.54 45.29 44.11 45.3

41.3143.39

48.3645.85 46.82

52.526.02

5.004.59

4.004.26 4.28

4.794.63

3.643.24

3.202.76

1.88

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

US Tr

easu

ry Y

ield

USD/

INR

USD/INR US TREASURY YIELD

Trend:

The 10-year US treasury yield shares

an inverse relationship with the rupee.

Recently, yields have been falling to

their all-time low of 1.38%. (All-time

low since 1912)

Outlook:

The 10 year US treasury yields seem to

remain below 2% and may be heading

towards 1.0%-1.2% on continued

nervousness or the occurrence of any Black

Swan events.

Triggers:

•Global risk aversion.

•Investors seeking safer and liquid assets.

•Reduction of other liquid and credible

Sovereign bonds.

Downgrading of Euro Zone Countries




INTERNATIONAL INDICATORS – A STRONG DOLLAR LEADS TO RUPEE WOES

Source: Trading Economics, IFA Research *Rupee & DI Yearly Average taken

44.96

47.18 48.59

46.5445.29

44.1145.3

41.31

43.39

48.36

45.8546.82

52.52

109.43

115.18 111.2895.92

87.57 87.08 86.3880.77

77.05 80.8 81.3376.68

84

30

50

70

90

110

130

30

35

40

45

50

55

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Jun-12

DOLL

AR IN

DEX

USD/

INR

USD/INR DOLLAR INDEX

Trend:

The Indian rupee shares an

inverse relationship with the

Dollar index. The strength in the

Dollar index has added to rupee

woes recently.

Outlook:

The Dollar Index appears to be bottoming out near 72.69 levels and is poised for a possible up-move in 2012-

2013.

Triggers:

Global slowdown and the rush for dollar assets.

Economic woes in Europe and EMs.

A healing US economy.

Low chances of QE on account of its diminishing

returns and upcoming US elections.




INTERNATIONAL INDICATORS– CENTRAL BANKS RESORT TO QE TO AVERT A FINANCIAL CRISIS

6.00%

17%

7%

22%19.00%

32%

22%

31%

Federal Reserve European Central Bank Bank of England Bank of Japan

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

2007 % of GDP

2011 % of GDP

Trend:

There has been a continuous

increase in QE over various

economies creating an easy

flow of money and inflation

across various emerging

markets and asset classes.

Outlook:

We expect further QE from the ECB,

BoE and possibly from the FED but

its importance is decreasing every

day since a larger share of money is

kept as bank reserves and bond

yields have already hit all-time lows.

Triggers:

Slowdown of growth in US, Europe and UK.

Increased liquidity crisis in financial markets

Continuous buying of bonds to keep interest rates low.

Source: IMF, IFA Research




INTERNATIONAL INDICATORS – INR CLOCKS HIGHEST % CHANGE AMONGST KEY ASIAN CURRENCIES

Source: Trading Economics, IFA Research *% change from 1st August 2011- 31st July 2012

-20.82

-10.43

-7.71 -6.08 -5.74

-3.93-3.51

0.47

-0.85

1.13

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

Rupee Indonesia Rupiah

Korean Won

Malaysian Ringgit

Thai Baht Taiwan Dollar

Singapore Dollar

Hong Kong Dollar

Japanese Yen

Chinese Yuan

% Change in Asian Currencies

Trend:

The Indian rupee has registered

the highest percentage change

among all major Asian currencies.

It has depreciated by almost 24%

in the last one year.

Outlook:

We expect the Rupee to be weaker in relative

terms v/s all other Asian currencies. We are

also seeing an active divergence of FII and FDI

funds to other Asian economies due to poor

macroeconomic fundamentals and a delay in

policy reforms.

Triggers:

Poor local fundamentals

Lack of flows due to risk aversion

High inflation rate among Asian nations.




INTERNATIONAL INDICATORS – EMERGING MARKETS GROWTH APPEARS TO FALTER

Trend:

The Emerging Nations’ growth

seems to falter again,

collectively forming a double-

dip kind of a pattern.

Outlook:

The trend seems to continue into

2012-2013 on account of an overall

slowdown in developing nation’s

growth — the main losers being

Russia, Mexico, Turkey & Brazil.

Triggers:

• Dip in demand from developed markets such as the US,

Europe & UK.

• Pulling back of cheap liquidity from European nations.

• Dip in overall commodity prices reducing their export

earnings.

Source: Trading Economics CEIC, IFA Research

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (E)

GDP (

%)

CHINA INDONESIA KOREA RUSSIA TURKEY BRAZIL INDIA MEXICO




RISK AVERSION – GOLD & THE DOLLAR INDEX SHARE AN INVERSE RELATIONSHIP

Source: Trading Economics, IFA Research * DI Yearly Average, Gold Year End

109.43115.18 111.28

95.9287.57 87.08 86.38

80.77 77.05 80.8 81.33

76.6874.68

84

274 279 348 416 438519

638838 889

1097

1421

1567

1920

1597

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Sep-11 Jun-12

GO

LD

DO

LLA

R IN

DEX

DOLLAR INDEX GOLD

Trend:

The Dollar index has maintained a downward trend since year 2000,

making a bottom in May 2011 at 72.69 while Gold has been

consistently rising in the same period topping at US$1,920. Since then

both the trends have reversed respectively.

Implications:

It shows that investors’ preferences are shifting from Gold to

the US Dollar due to the overbought nature of the precious

metal.




RISK AVERSION – USD/CHF & USD/JPY — INVESTORS SEEK SAFER ASSETS

Trend:

Trend of both the pairs have

been consistently falling due to

increased investments in this

currency pair based on its ‘safe

haven’ status.

Outlook:

The trend is likely to be range-bound with possible

upside in the pair due to increasing debt problems in

Japan and banking issues in Switzerland. Both the

countries’ Central banks are aggressively intervening

(cap of 1.20 for EUR/CHF and 76 for USD/JPY) to

protect their respective exports.

Triggers:

• Global risk aversion.

• Investors seeking safer and liquid

assets.

• Reduction of other liquid and credible

instruments.

Source: Trading Economics, IFA Research *CHF & JPY Yearly Average taken

1.2461 1.25281.1998

1.0826 1.08531.0362

0.89620.977

110.16 116.32 117.76

103.35

93.5887.72

79.68 78.46

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00

100.00

110.00

120.00

130.00

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Jul-12

USD/

JPY

USD/

CHF

USDCHF USDJPY




RISK AVERSION – TREASURY YIELD OF VARIOUS ECONOMIES BEARISH

Trend:

The trend has been consistently

falling since 2007, making new

lows in 2012 due to increased

investor preferences in the

above Sovereign bonds.

Outlook:

The trend of the above bond yields remains bearish

due to investors seeking a return of their

investments rather than returns on their

investments.

Triggers:

• Global risk aversion.

• Investors seeking safer and liquid

assets.

• Reduction of other liquid and credible

Sovereign bonds.

Source: CEIC, IFA Research




RISK AVERSION – USD/INR & SENSEX TO CONTINUE THEIR INVERSE RELATIONSHIP

Trend:

The trend of the Rupee since 1997

has been consistently weak. Only

during the period 2003-2008, we

have seen an appreciating trend

due to continuous inflows across

all Emerging Markets.

Outlook:

Since we have seen increased risk aversion across

the globe and slowdown of growth in Emerging

Markets, we would continue to see a depreciating

trend for the rupee ahead.

Triggers:

• Low interest rates post 2005 in the US.

• Increased risk appetite

• Active carry trade from Japan and US.

Source: Trading Economics, IFA Research *Sensex & Rupee Year End Rate

39.2142.49 43.51

46.59 48.2 47.9445.45

43.3245.02 44.25

39.38

48.58 46.444.7 53.06

55.64

3659

3055

5006

3,972

3,262

3,377

5,839

6,603

9,398

13,787

20,287

9,647

17,465

20,509

15,455

17,236

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Jul-12

SENS

EX

USD/

INR

USDINR Sensex

Risk Appetite




RBI’S STANCE – PURCHASE & SALE OF DOLLARS — A DOWNWARD TREND SEEN

Trend:

Consistent downward trend

seen in RBI’s intervention

during the last few years.

Outlook:

The RBI would not like to sell dollars due to the

country’s unhealthy reserves position and

aggressive buying will also not take place due to lack

of robust inflows and the high cost of infusing

liquidity.

Triggers:

• The Central Bank wants the market

forces to determine the true value of

the exchange rate

• The main objective is to curb market

volatility rather than to control the

exchange rate.

Source: RBI, IFA Research

29.37

48.93

36.41

15.4820.59

74.88

45.90

6.492.45 0.00

3.09

15.39

22.5216.53

7.10

0.00 0.00

57.31

12.31

0.76

12.52 11.53

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Jun-12

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

$Bill

iom

PURCHASE SALE




RBI’S STANCE – FX RESERVES & IMPORT COVER CONSISTENTLY DECLINING

Trend:

We have seen a consistent

decline in the reserves to

import cover ratio from 2010-

2012, indicating pressure on

the current account deficit

(CAD).

Outlook:

We do not expect to see any significant

improvement in the import cover ratio until we see

significant FII inflows in the coming days.

Triggers:

• Increased imports

• Inconsistent FII and FDI flows

• Revaluation of FX reserves due to the

dollar.

Source: RBI, IFA Research *Rupee Yearly Average taken

42 54 75113

142 152199

310

252279

305 294

8.8

11.5

14

16.9

14.3

11.612.5

14.4

9.811.1

9.6

7.2

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

FORE

X RE

SERV

ES

IMPO

RT C

OVE

R

FOREX RESERVE ($ Bn) IMPORT COVER




BLACK SWAN EVENTS

We expect the possibility of some Black Swan events emerging in FY2013, which could strongly boost the US Dollar in that year.

US dollar index to head towards 90 in FY2013: The USD already seems to have bottomed in 2011 near 73 levels. High risk aversion

and positive economic numbers compared with its peer countries may push the US economy to stronger levels. The Dollar index above

85 levels could push the rupee close to 57-58 levels.

US-Iran war: US-Iran relations are strained over a variety of issues including Iran's backing of terrorist groups and its nuclear activities.

Any kind of warlike speculation may push oil prices above USD120/barrel, which may hit all economies especially oil importing

economies such as India, drastically. The Arab spring is already prevalent in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya which is making security situations

unstable with the US and Iran areas.

We have recently seen China’s growth falling to a 3-year low: China’s surging real estate sector, buoyed by a flood of speculative

capital is preparing itself for a larger-than-expected investment bust. There are indications of credit excesses, which may lead to a

bubble kind of situation likely occurring in 2013. We have already seen some of the biggest real estate companies posting lower growth

in 2012. Any such major public announcements may lead to a liquidity crisis, which may spread across Emerging Markets like India too.

India rating downgrade: The global rating agencies have already downgraded outlook for the Indian economy. We feel that there

could be a possibility of an actual downgrade due to poor monsoons, increasing CAD and delays in implementing Government policy

measures to reduce fiscal deficit. If such an event occurs, the cost of international dollar funding will go up for Indian banks and

companies, which will lead to a liquidity crisis and increased NPAs for banks. Companies will have to necessary buy US dollars from the

market to pay back their dollar liabilities which will create huge demand for the US dollar, making the rupee weaker.

The arab spring is already prevalent in Tunisia , Egypt and Libya which are making security situations unstable.




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Rupee may hit 60 by June 2013 - Stock/Share Market Investing

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