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Currency Insight

Technical Recommendation

Exchange Contract S2 S1 Close R1 R2 Recommendation

USDINR-MCX-Sx SEPT 46.6058 46.9492 47.2925 47.4867 47.6808 Buy at 47.20-21 TP 47.40-60 SL 47.08

USDINR-NSE SEPT 46.8217 47.0783 47.3350 47.4658 47.5967 Buy at 47.20-21 TP 47.40-60 SL 47.08

EUROINR-MCX SX SEPT 63.2742 63.8458 64.4175 64.7433 65.0692 Sell at 64.60-65 TP 63.95 SL 64.90

GBPINR MCX SX SEPT 73.9558 74.4692 74.9825 75.2867 75.5908 Buy at 74.75-78 TP 75.40 SL 74.50

JPYINR MCX SX SEPT 59.5867 60.4933 61.4000 61.8983 62.3967 Buy at 61.20-25 TP 61.70 SL 60.90

Previous days performance

Exchange Contract Recommendation Performance

USDINR-MCX-Sx SEPT Buy at 46.70-73 TP 47.20-60 SL 46.58 Call not initiated but view righ

USDINR-NSE SEPT Buy at 46.70-73 TP 47.20-60 SL 46.58 Call not initiated but view righ

EUROINR-MCX SX SEPT Sell at 64.20-25 TP 63.55 SL 64.40 Ignored Cal

GBPINR MCX SX SEPT Sell at 74.25-30 TP 73.80 SL 74.50 Ignored Cal

JPYINR MCX SX SEPT Buy at 59.90-95 TP 60.60 SL 59.65 Call not initiated but view righ

Market Recap:

The Indian rupee continued its downward trend and

ended on a new yearly low. The weaker IIP numbers and

strong dollar demand kept the rupee under pressure The

Rupee finally ended at 47.23 a depreciation of 1.23 percent

Indian equities on Monday ended on a negative note

following the lower IIP inflation numbers and a global sell

off. The S&P Nifty ended at 4946 lower by 2.23 %

On Friday, FII's net sold 974 Cr worth of equities while

they bought 195 Cr worth of debt instruments.

Bond yields closed higher on Friday as demand for debt

instruments increased amidst volatile equities. Yield on

2020 government bond closed at 8.3020 higher by 1 bps

from previous close

Call money market rates closed lower as demand in money

market decreased; the weighted average call money

market rate ended at 8.02% down by 0.50% from previous

close

Against the GBP, and the Yen the rupee depreciated by

0.77, and 2.29 percent respectively. Against the EURO it

appreciated by 0.19 percent.

OUTLOOK

Wall Street rebounded towards the end of the trading

session as short covering gave the indices a gain of

about 1%. The Euro recovered from seven month lows

after short covering and news suggested that China

could help Italy get out of its debt problems by buying

Italian bonds. The Asian markets have taken a leaf out

of this and are trading on the higher side. The SGX nifty

is also showing an uptick of about half a percent. These

factors point to a slightly positive rupee. On the

economic data from the UK we have the CPI m/m

which are expected to come in at 0.60% this can have a

slight negative impact on its currency. From the US we

have the Monthly Budget statement and the Import

price index, both will have a major effect on the USD

While the Budget statement could prove to be negative

the lower import price index can be positive for the

USD, so overall a mixed effect on the USD. The Dollar

Index is negative at 77.08

For today, we can see the rupee to have a sligh

recovery due to the slight bounce back in Euro and the

stronger global equities. But the strong dollar demand

could keep a cap on the gains. The range for the day is

seen between 46.90-47.30

13 September

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Currency Insight

Major Economic Events

Date Time Currency Event Period Survey Prior Impact

09/13/2011 14:00 GBP CPI (MoM) AUG 0.60% 0.00% Negative

09/13/2011 17:00 USD NFIB Small Business Optimism AUG 88.4 89.9 Negative

09/13/2011 18:00 USD Import Price Index (MoM) AUG -0.80% 0.30% Positive

09/13/2011 23:30 USD Monthly Budget Statement AUG -$132.0B -$90.5B Negative

USDINR OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE VOLUME % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST % CHANG

Sep-11 46.80 47.34 46.80 47.29 1.30 3,236,887 -2.34 846,079 9.7

Oct-11 47.03 47.50 47.42 47.44 1.28 174,638 26.60 199,145 7.9

Nov-11 47.33 48.32 47.29 47.58 1.23 87,399 -2.26 117,700 -7.1

Dec-11 47.53 47.78 47.42 47.71 1.18 26,162 4.35 52,256 -58.7

MCX-SX PVO Analysis

USDINR OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE VOLUME % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST % CHANG

Sep-11 46.95 47.34 46.95 47.34 1.35 2,382,591 6.75 1,400,802 13.4

Oct-11 47.15 47.50 47.14 47.45 1.35 242,599 19.78 353,762 -1.5

Nov-11 47.34 47.63 47.26 47.58 1.29 55,281 25.49 108,069 -0.3

Dec-11 47.52 47.76 47.43 47.73 1.24 54,822 -18.60 151,358 -6.2

NSE PVO Analysis

USDINR Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11

Sep-11 0.0000

Oct-11 0.1500 0.0000

Nov-11 0.2900 0.1400 0.0000

Dec-11 0.4200 0.2700 0.0000 0.0000

MCX-SX Spread Sheet

USDINR Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-1

Sep-11 0.0000

Oct-11 0.1125 0.0000

Nov-11 0.2475 0.1350 0.0000

Dec-11 0.3900 0.2775 -0.0468 0.000

NSE Spread Sheet

Technical Update

USD/INR-June Futures: NSE/MCX-SX:

Currency pair USD/INR closed higher after opening

gap up. It witnessed a low of 46.35 levels, the days

high stood at 46.71 levels. It gained by 0.74 % over

the prior trading session. The pair is expected to take

support at these levels and we could see a slight

reversal from here and could test previous

resistances of 46.42. For today selling can be done at

higher levels

Resistance is at 46.85 and then 46.98 levels. Support

is at 46.59 and then 46.42 levels.

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Currency Insight

INDICES LAST 1 Day ago % Change

NIFTY 4946.80 5059.45 -2.23

SENSEX 16501.74 16866.97 -2.17

NASDAQ 2495.09 2467.99 1.10DOW JONES INDUSTRI 11061.12 10992.13 0.63

SHANGHAI COMPOSIT #N/A N/A 2497.75 #VALUE!

NIKKIE 225 8535.67 8737.66 -2.31

HANGSENG 19030.54 19866.63 -4.21

FTSE Index 5129.62 5214.65 -1.63

Major World Indices

FORWARDS LAST 1 Day ago % Change Annu(%)

1-Mth Forward 47.3947 46.7542 1.37 1.37%

3-Mth Forward 47.6674 47.0658 1.28 3.83%

6-Mth Forward 47.9438 47.4130 1.12 6.72%12-Mth Forward 48.3450 47.9325 0.86 10.33%

1-Mth NDF 47.5400 46.9900 1.17 1.17%

3-Mth NDF 47.8900 47.3200 1.20 3.61%

6-Mth NDF 48.2300 47.6900 1.13 6.79%

12-Mth NDF 48.8000 48.3400 0.95 11.42%

ASIAN/INR LAST 1 Day ago % Change

Chinese Yuan 7.3740 7.2890 1.17

Hongkong Dollar 6.0530 5.9730 1.34

Indonesian Rupiah 0.5483 0.5429 0.99

Myanmar Ringgit 15.5905 15.5204 0.45

Philipinnes Peso 1.1034 1.0947 0.79

Singapore Dollar 38.2440 37.9071 0.89

Taiwan Dollar 1.6027 1.5944 0.52

Thailand Baht 1.5655 1.5488 1.08

Asian Currency Pairs

INDICATORS LAST 1 Day ago % Change

LIBOR 1Mth 0.2286 0.2261 1.11

LIBOR 3Mth 0.3429 0.3379 1.46

MIBOR 1Mth 1.3400 1.3400 0.00

MIBOR 3Mth 1.5300 1.5300 0.00

U.S. 5Yr Bond Yield 0.8646 0.8023 7.77

U.S. 10Yr Bond Yield 1.9475 1.9183 1.52

India 10Yr Bond Yield 8.2890 8.3090 -0.24

Call Rate 8.0500 8.0200 0.37

Debt Market Information

9/12/2011

Pair LAST 1 Day ago % Change

USDINR 46.97 46.38 1.27

GBPINR 74.22 74.01 0.28

JPYINR 100 60.98 59.87 1.85

EURINR 63.66 64.48 -1.27

Reference Rates as on CROSS LAST 1 Day ago % ChangeUSDINR Spot 47.23 46.57 1.42

MCX-SX Futures 47.29 46.69 1.30

NSE Futures 47.34 46.71 1.35

EURO Futures 64.42 64.50 -0.12

GBP Futures 74.98 74.41 0.77

JPY (100) Futures 61.41 59.98 2.39

ICE Dollar Index 77.11 77.19 -0.11

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