RSK @ STIRLING - Institute of Water€¦ · RSK UK and Ireland office Locations Largest privately...
Transcript of RSK @ STIRLING - Institute of Water€¦ · RSK UK and Ireland office Locations Largest privately...
RSK @ STIRLING
Institute of Water Autumn Seminar
Andrew Gunning
Agenda
1. Introductions
2. An approach to the Risk Management Process
3. Environmental Risk Management – project examples
Shale gas and groundwater protection
Carbon dioxide from minewater
4. Climate Risk Management – project examples
COCC – Resilience in the water sector and the energy & water trilemma
Strategy development – water in Construction
5. Wrap up
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Institute of Water Autumn Seminar
‘The development of environmental & climate risk management strategies
with reference to the water environment.’
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1. Introductions
Andrew Gunning / RSK
IntroductionAndrew Gunning, Managing Director RSK @ Stirling
Andrew has wide experience in risk management and mitigation in
the water, energy, mining, construction and utility sectors and leads
an experienced team of hydrogeologists, hydrologists,
meteorologists and engineers in providing consultancy services
which include environmental and climate risk management. Andrew
is based at Stirling, Scotland.
In addition to technical expertise in hydrogeology and geothermal
energy, Andrew is an experienced Company Director and has skills
in leadership and innovation alongside commercial and project
management expertise. He is educated to MSc level in applied
geology (Newcastle University), has a Diploma in Company
Direction (Institute of Directors).
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http://tiny.cc/khcjfz
RSK Group History
RSK UK and Ireland office Locations
Largest privately owned UK based environmental
firm
Growth from 1 person to over 3500 people over 30
years
Our success is based on our client focused
approach
100 offices across UK, Europe, Africa, Former
Soviet Union and Middle East
Leading provider of environmental and engineering
services
Trusted advisor to 7,000 active clients in the public
and private sectors including water, agriculture,
transport and energy.
RSK Worldwide
RSK Key Clients
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RSK @ Stirling
Our Services:
Climate & Environmental Risk Management
Environmental permitting
Surface Water management
Geology and Groundwater assessment
Geothermal studies
Clients Include:
Government
Energy and Oil & Gas companies
Utilities
Developers and Main Contractors
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2. The Risk Management Process
Risk Management ISO 31000:2018
Provides generic guidelines
Creates and protect value in organizations and
processes by managing risks, making decisions, setting
and achieving objectives and improving performance.
Managing risk is iterative and assists in setting
strategies, achieving objectives and making informed
decisions.
Managing risk is part of all activities associated with an
organization or process and includes interaction with
stakeholders.
Managing risk considers the external and internal
context, including human behavior.
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Establish Context
Identify risks
Analyse risks
Evaluate risks
Treat Risks
Co
mm
un
icate an
d co
nsu
lt
Mo
nit
or
and
re
vie
w
Risk assessment
12/11/2019 WP5.3 EQUP4RISK RSKW UEdin 12
This is an
implementation of
the ISO 31000
risk management
framework for the
energy sector
RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESSES
Defining Risk
Risk is typically defined as:
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*(In seismic risk assessment Value is called Exposure)
𝑅𝑖𝑠𝑘 = 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 × 𝑉𝑢𝑙𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 × 𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒
Likelihood of
event/hazard,
how often
Intrinsic predisposition to
suffer ‘damage’ as a result of
the event/hazard or source
of risk
Cost of
event/hazard or
consequence
*
Risk is the effect of uncertainty on objectives
Vincente et al (2011), Enzenhoefer et al (2015), Kelly et al (2018).
Some of the important issues in risk management
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Perception of risk – particularly amongst non scientific audiences and the general public
Experience suggests it is crucial that stakeholders understand the risks in a project even if the risks are
low as these risks can be misinterpreted and a ‘social license to operate’ not obtained;
The social license - the ongoing acceptance of an organization’s business practices by its employees,
stakeholders & the general public.
Assessment of risk – not appreciating risks in a project may have catastrophic consequences in
extreme cases
Consequences can be immediate or result in a long term legacy
Treatment of risk – most effective and least cost at the feasibility stage of a project
Risk Perception
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The Perception of project related risks can vary
considerably particularly for high impact low
probability events:
For Example:
Nuclear - HIGH IMPACT LOW PROBABILITY
RISKS: Fukishima, Chernobyl, Three Mile island
Offshore oil & gas HIGH IMPACT LOW
PROBABILITY RISKS: Deepwater offshore
conventional oil and gas – Macondo GoM
In other cases the perception of risks sometimes not proportionate to actual risks
The Risk Assessment Process
Risk identification
Find, recognize and describe risks that might help or prevent an
organization achieving its objectives. Relevant, appropriate and up-
to-date information is important in identifying risks.
Risk analysis
The purpose of risk analysis is to comprehend the nature of risk
and its characteristics including, where appropriate, the level of
risk. Risk analysis involves a detailed consideration of
uncertainties, risk sources, consequences, likelihood, events,
scenarios, controls and their effectiveness.
Risk evaluation
The purpose of risk evaluation is to support decisions. Risk
evaluation involves comparing the results of the risk analysis with
the established risk criteria to determine where additional action is
required.
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Risk Treatment
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Most effective during
the project planning
stage
Some international
examples follow
where treatment
proved to be very
expensive
Flint, Michigan : Switching to a new water source
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Since the 1960’s the Detroit water and sewerage department
supplied Flint, Michigan with reliable clean drinking water.
• Major issue was the cost - Residents had urged their
leaders to relieve the burden of pricey water.
• Flint had one advantage - it’s own water treatment
works was already in place as an emergency backup.
Therefore changed supply from potable DWSD water to a raw
water supply from Karegnondi Water Authority. There was a
drawback that the raw water pipeline was delayed.
Flint City rebooted the old treatment plant and switched to
using raw water from the Flint River as an interim measure.
• An outbreak of Legionnaires' disease followed, and
residents were found to have drunk water poisoned
with lead. Twelve people died
• Nearly 100,000 residents of Flint were left without safe
tap water and at risk of lead poisoning.
The month of the water switch, Flint’s utilities administrator, Michael
Glasgow, didn’t believe the plant was ready. He emailed three people at the
Michigan department of environmental quality (MDEQ) with a warning. “I
have people above me making plans” to distribute the water as soon as
possible.” Guardian Website 2018
Best Intentions - Switching to a new water source
Bengal Basin, Bangladesh
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Many of those living in the delta relied upon surface water sources such as
rivers and ponds. Most of these water sources were microbiologically unsafe,
and, diarrheal diseases and cholera were widely prevalent.
Groundwater tapped from only a few meters below the ground surface
was considered to be microbiologically safe; this led to the installation
since the 1930’s of shallow tubewells 10 -70m in depth with the aim of
providing safe water for the population and thus reducing diarrheal
diseases.
Ultimately, by the nineties, 97% of the total population of Bangladesh
had access to microbiologically safe drinking water through tubewells.
In 1995, when villagers began to display symptoms of poisoning such
as major skin lesions, did experts realize that the water was heavily
polluted.
Since 1995, the UK: BGS has led a major survey of arsenic in
Bangladeshi groundwater," and has been trying, in part, to steer
villagers towards the least polluted wells
Millions of people in Bangladesh
continue to drink water tainted with
arsenic.
The problem has been described as
the worst mass poisoning in history -
health experts estimate that 100,000
people living on the Bengal delta
have suffered debilitating skin
lesions. Other effects of the
contamination include cancer and
neurological problems.
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2. Environmental Risk Management
Shale Gas & Groundwater Protection
The Development of a risk management strategy for shale gas
• The SHEER project – an international consortia carried
out a three year EC Horizon 2020 funded investigation
into environmental risk associated with shale oil and gas
development within the European Union.
• A key feature of the programme of work has been the
independent monitoring of a shale gas well at Wysin,
Poland, through a network of seismic, groundwater and
air quality measurement arrays and shallow borehole
sensors both in advance of and subsequent to hydraulic
fracturing operations.
• Shallow drinking water aquifer consisting of Quaternary
glacial and fluvio-glacial deposits, silts, sands & peat
used as a drinking water aquifer and with high hydraulic
conductivity.
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Dissolved Gases
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BGS metal flow
through bombs
Isotech IsoFlask®
sample container
BGR glass containers
acidified with HCl
Need to incorporate Uncertainty in the risk analysis
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Parameters:
Hydrogeological
Flow paths
Geological model uncertainty
Anthropogenic uncertainty e.g. abandoned
boreholes/mine workings etc
Equipt4Risk WP5 aims to integrate spatially and
temporally the cumulative risk posed by seismicity
and water and air pollution from shale gas
development in the UK
We are developing a methodology and platform to
allow robust aggregation of risks for different hazards
based on the Source-Pathway-Receptor concept
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3. Climate Risk Management
Colin Summerhayes: Earth's Climate Evolution- a Geological
Perspective
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There has been an insulation driven
temperature decline over the past
2,000 years, with smaller variations
around that downward trend caused
by solar effects.
The black line in the bottom graph is
from paleoclimate data.
Since the 1970s, the global
temperature has gone beyond the
normal window of insulation and
solar effects. This seems to be
caused by greenhouse gases
humans are putting into the
atmosphere.
Invention of the Watt
steam engine in 1776
IPCC Figures
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These figures show the effect on extreme
temperatures when (a) mean temperature
increases, (b) variance increases, and (c) when
both mean and variance increase. (Figures from
the IPCC’s Climate Change 2001: Impacts,
Adaptation, and Vulnerability)
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3. Climate Risk Management
Mine gas, rising groundwater and more extrem
weather events
Research
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Research project to investigate prevalence of CO2
from disused mineral mines and the implications
for residential buildings
For over a century CO2 at high concentrations has been recognised as
a workplace hazard.
During April 2014, a number of cases of ill health were reported to be
affecting some residents in the former mining area of Gorebridge,
Midlothian.
22 residents were hospitalized and ultimately 64 Houses demolished
at a cost of £6Mn, several court cases resulted from the incident and
are still ongoing.
Summary of Incidents in Scotland
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03/11/1994, Coalburn, South Lanarkshire - 1 residential property
30/05/1995, Coalburn, South Lanarkshire
08/08/1999, Kirkconnel, Dumfries and Galloway -Number of animal
fatalities
09/08/1999, Kirkconnel, Dumfries and Galloway - Number of bird and
small animal fatalities
12/08/1999, Kirkconnel, Dumfries and Galloway
28/06/2001, Dysart, Fife - 1 harbour store
25/10/2002, Fife (no village listed) - 1 Elderly woman (1 residential
property)
01/04/2004, Thornton, Fife - Multiple residential properties
10/11/2010, Coalburn, South Lanarkshire - 1 property
April 2014, Gorebridge, Midlothian - 165 people (22 for healthcare)
Wrona, P., Różański, Z., Pach, G. et al. Environ Earth Sci (2016) 75: 1139.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-016-5977-7
More robust enforcement, risk assessment, and mitigation will
help to prevent further instances of ill-health in residential
buildings from CO2 associated with abandoned mine workings.
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3. Climate Risk Management
COCC – Resilience in the water sector and the
water trilemma
RSK ADAS - Research to update the evidence base for indicators of climate-related risks and actions in England (2019) Report to the Committee on Climate
The Adaptation Committee of the Committee on Climate Change provide advice to the UK Government and
Devolved Administrations on emissions targets and the current and future risks to the country from climate
change; and report to Parliament on progress made in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and preparing for
climate change.
2 Infrastructure 2.1 Design and location of new infrastructure2.2 Resilience of energy infrastructure services 2.3 Resilience of public water infrastructure services 2.4 Resilience of road and rail network infrastructure services
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Sp
en
d o
n r
esili
en
ce
(£
m)
Year
Total and forecast spend on resilience by all water companies from 2008-09 to 2024-25 (£m)
• Spend on resilience by all water companies in England and Wales (both water and sewerage, and water only) from 2008 to 2025.
• Actual spend for 2008-09 to 2017-18 is, as reported to Ofwat.
• Forecast spend for 2018-19 to 2024-25, as reported to Ofwat in water companies PR19 Business Plans.
Source: Figure 2.13 in ADAS (2019) Research to update the evidence base for indicators of
climate-related risks and actions in England. Report to the Committee on Climate Change.
Water company spend on resilience
An overall challenge – which has
become known as the ‘‘energy (or
water) trilemma’’ – is to
simultaneously satisfy three
imperatives: affordability, security of
supply and decarbonisation. Younger
PY (2016).
Security of Supply
Affordability Decarbonise
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2. Climate Risk Management
Strategy development – water in Construction
The Met Office 2018 UK Climate Projections (UKCP18)
indicate that the UK is likely to experience milder, wetter
winters and hotter, drier summers in the future due to
climate change. We are also likely to see more extreme
weather events including flooding and droughts.
Strategy development – water in Construction
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Water is Vital to our Business
Climate change
Water Scarcity
Population and Urban Grown
Legend
Low (<10%)
Low to medium (10-20%)
Medium to high (20-40%)
High (40-80%)
Extremely high (>80%)
Arid & low water use
No data
Baseline water stress in the UK. Total annual water
withdrawals/total available annual renewable supply,
accounting for upstream consumptive use (Water
Resources Institute, Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas
Strategy development – water in Construction
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Water is Vital
Risks in
Climate change
Water Scarcity
Population and Urban Grown
Projected population increase for low (left) and high (right) scenarios
(*Sayers and Partners LLP)
Vision and Objective
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Vision
Our business’s vision, mission, core values and cultural principles are tied with sustainability and set
our goals for the future. We aim to reduce water use in our operations and our supply chain, design
our homes to be more water efficient, protect water quality and reduce flood risk. We aim to
integrate water management into our company’s values.
Objective
We aim to use water carefully and increase the water efficiency of our sites through all aspects of
our business model, where sustainability is integrated at every stage: selecting land, managing the
planning and community engagement process, getting the homebuilding basics right, delivering
customer service, our people, and optimising value.
Best Practice
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Leaks – report and fix leaks as soon as they are discovered
Taps – report and fix dripping taps as soon as they are
discovered
Percussion Taps – check these come as standard on new
welfare facilities
Hoses – Install trigger control on all hoses
Sprinklers – Ensure careful placement and management of
sprinklers when watering gardens
An approach to the Risk Management Process
Environmental Risk Management – project examples
Shale gas and groundwater protection
Carbon dioxide from minewater
Climate Risk Management – project examples
COCC – Resilience in the water sector and the energy & water trilemma
Strategy development – water in Construction
Wrap up
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Institute of Water Autumn Seminar
‘The development of environmental & climate risk management strategies
with reference to the water environment.’
October 2019 40
Thank you
Any QuestionsAndrew Gunning CGeol FGS CEng MCIWEM
Managing Director
RSK @ Stirling, Unit 11 Beta Centre,
Stirling University Innovation Park,
Stirling, FK9 4NF
Scotland UK