RPS Land Use and RPS Land Use and

Transportation Modeling Transportation Modeling

ResultsResults

Presentation to RPS TAC & MPO TACBrian Gregor

Transportation Planning Analysis UnitMay 17, 2006

Presentation Outline

• Modeling background

• Description of land use model (LUSDR)

• Land use results

• Transportation results

Modeling BackgroundModeling Background

Land Use and Transportation Planning

Legend

County

Urban Growth Area

Poss. Urban Reserve

Highway

Poss. Highway

Urban development goesin urban growth boundaries.

County lands arepredominantly resourcezoning and very low densitydevelopment.

Urban reserves are future sourcesof land for inclusion into urbangrowth boundaries. They affect future transportation demand.Highway location affects

land development patterns.

Approaches to Land Use and Approaches to Land Use and Transportation ModelingTransportation Modeling

• Most common practice is to make aspirational-concensus land use forecasts. These are fixed for all transportation modeling.

• With integrated land use and transport models, land use allocations vary with transportation, but almost all just produce one land use pattern.

• The LUSDR model is also sensitive to transportation policies but recognizes that land many develop in many ways.

Why Evaluate Alternative Land Use Why Evaluate Alternative Land Use Patterns? Patterns?

• The overall number of trips may not change much, but the patterns of trip origins and destinations will.

• Roadway traffic can be very different depending on the land use assumptions.

• Assessment of many plausible land use patterns help identify potential problems.

O

O

O O

D

D

D D

Modeling Multiple Scenarios to Assess Risks

A

B

A

0 2000 4000 6000 8000

05

15

25

Traffic Volume

Num

ber

of

Sce

na

rios

Num

ber

of

Sce

na

rios

B

0 2000 4000 6000 8000

05

15

25

35

Traffic Volume

• Goal of RPS: To achieve regional consensus on where urban reserves should be designated to accommodate a doubling of population.

• Modeling Objectives

– Develop a moderately large set of plausible future land use patterns.

– Model the effects of the different land use patterns on the transportation system.

– Identify key features of land use patterns affecting transportation performance.

Jackson County Regional Problem Solving Jackson County Regional Problem Solving (RPS) Study(RPS) Study

What is LUSDR and What is LUSDR and How Does It Work?How Does It Work?

LLand and UUse se SScenario cenario DDevelopeevelopeRR

• Creates variation through stochastic microsimulation.

• Stochastic means that there is a random component to the model but average behavior is replicated.

• Microsimulation means that individual household, business and development decisions are modeled.

Stochastic MicrosimulationStochastic Microsimulation

= all of these places meet requirements

Shopping center might be located here in one simulation

Might be located here in another simulation

Start with Population by Age & Start with Population by Age & Total Population GrowthTotal Population Growth

0-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74 80-84

Population by Age

Age

Pro

po

rtio

n

0.0

00

.01

0.0

20

.03

0.0

40

.05

0.0

6

HhSize Worker AgeOfHead Income Ownrent BldgtypeHh1 h2 w2 a1 i4 rent SFDHh2 h2 w1 a4 i2 rent SFDHh3 h2 w3 a1 i2 rent A5PHh4 h3 w2 a2 i3 own SFDHh5 h1 w2 a2 i1 own SFDHh6 h4 w4 a2 i5 own SFDHh7 h2 w3 a1 i3 rent SFDHh8 h2 w1 a2 i5 own SFDHh9 h2 w3 a3 i1 rent SFDHh10 h2 w1 a3 i5 own SFDHh11 h2 w1 a3 i4 rent SFAHh12 h3 w2 a4 i4 rent A24Hh13 h4 w3 a2 i4 rent MHHh14 h2 w2 a2 i2 own SFD

Generate HouseholdsGenerate Households

Comparisons of Observed and Comparisons of Observed and Simulated Household Building Simulated Household Building TypesTypes

Building Type Categories

1990 Census

1990 Estimated

2000 Census

2000 Estimated

Single Family Detached

63.9 63.7 63.9 63.8

Single Family Attached

2.2 3.1 2.2 3.1

2-4 Unit Apartment 7.6 8.0 8.3 7.7

5+ Unit Apartment 8.0 8.7 9.3 8.6

Mobile Home 17.5 16.0 14.9 16.4

Other 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.4

Assign to Assign to DevelopmentsDevelopments

HhSize Worker AgeOfHead Income Ownrent Bldgtype DevIdHh1 h1 w1 a1 i5 own SFDH SFDH-161Hh2 h1 w1 a1 i3 own MHpark MHpark-1Hh3 h1 w1 a1 i4 rent SFDM SFDM-126Hh4 h1 w1 a1 i1 rent SFDM SFDM-207Hh5 h1 w1 a1 i2 rent SFDM SFDM-758Hh6 h1 w1 a1 i2 rent SFDM SFDM-660

Development Sizes of SFDM Subdivisions

Subdivision Size

Nu

mb

er

0 100 200 300 400 500

01

00

30

05

00

Generate Employment Establishments Generate Employment Establishments and Put in Developmentsand Put in Developments

Histogram of Observed and Simulated Firm Sizes

log(employment)

De

nsi

ty

0 2 4 6 8

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

Id DevType LocType NumEmp UnitArea TotArea UnitPrice Period ACC-3 ACC EmpGrp6 3 6256.882 22524.775 9.133772 p4 ACC-1 ACC EmpGrp6 98 6256.882 735809.323 9.133772 p1 ACC-12 ACC EmpGrp6 1 6256.882 7508.258 9.133772 p2 ACC-14 ACC EmpGrp6 2 6256.882 15016.517 9.133772 p4 ACC-8 ACC EmpGrp6 2 6256.882 15016.517 9.133772 p3 ACC-4 ACC EmpGrp6 6 6256.882 45049.550 9.133772 p1

Locate DevelopmentsLocate Developments

• For each development– Identify set of candiate TAZs– Choose TAZ based on preference

probabilities (considering slope, distance to interchange, traffic exposure, accessibility)

• For each TAZ– Balance supply and demand based on

plan compatibility and willingness to pay

• Repeat as necessary until all developments are sited

Preference Probability Example 1: Construction & Manufacturing

Retail Preference ProbabilitiesPreference Probability Example 1: Retail and similar

Land Use Land Use ResultsResults

How to Interpret the Shapes ofHow to Interpret the Shapes ofBox Percentile PlotsBox Percentile Plots

3600

037

000

3800

039

000

Em

ploy

men

t

center line shows the

medianvalue

fifty percent of thevalues are between the

top and bottom horizontal lines

top and bottomshow the range

of values

the width indicatesthe relative frequencyof the value

5

05000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Total Households by District

Num

ber of H

ouse

hold

s

Eagle

Poin

t

White

City

Central

Poin

t

Jack

sonvi

lle

West

Medfo

rd

East

Medfo

rd

Phoenix

Tale

nt

Ash

land

Tolo

North

Medfo

rd

010000

20000

30000

40000 Total Employment by District

Eagle

Poin

t

White

City

Central

Poin

t

Jack

sonvi

lle

West

Medfo

rd

East

Medfo

rd

Phoenix

Tale

nt

Ash

land

Tolo

North

Medfo

rd

3000

5000

7000

9000

1: Eagle Point

p1 p3 p5 p7 p9

3000

4000

5000

6000

2: White City

p1 p3 p5 p7 p9

8000

1200

016

000

2000

0 3: Central Point

p1 p3 p5 p7 p9

2000

3000

4000

5000

4: Jacksonville

p1 p3 p5 p7 p9

1400

018

000

5: West Medford

p1 p3 p5 p7 p9

2000

030

000

4000

0

6: East Medford

p1 p3 p5 p7 p9

4500

5500

7: Phoenix

p1 p3 p5 p7 p9 3500

4000

4500

5000

8: Talent

p1 p3 p5 p7 p9

1000

012

000

1400

0

9: Ashland

p1 p3 p5 p7 p9

Comparison of Households for Runs Starting at 2002(black) and 2030(red)(horizontal red line = 2030 base)

1000

3000

5000

1: Eagle Point

p1 p3 p5 p7 p9

6000

1000

014

000

2: White City

p1 p3 p5 p7 p9

4000

8000

1200

0

3: Central Point

p1 p3 p5 p7 p9

1000

1400

1800

4: Jacksonville

p1 p3 p5 p7 p9

2500

030

000

3500

0

5: West Medford

p1 p3 p5 p7 p9

2500

035

000

4500

0

6: East Medford

p1 p3 p5 p7 p9

2000

4000

6000

7: Phoenix

p1 p3 p5 p7 p9

2000

3000

4000

8: Talent

p1 p3 p5 p7 p9

9000

1000

011

000

9: Ashland

p1 p3 p5 p7 p9

Comparison of Employment for Runs Starting at 2002(black) and 2030(red)(horizontal red line = 2030 base)

Transportation ResultsTransportation Results

Variation in Total Vehicle Miles Travelled

Percentage of Average

Num

ber of S

cenarios

-0.5 0.0 0.5

02

46

8

1 2 3 4 5 30 1 1638000 964000 1027000 1025000 239000 62000 2 1646000 978000 1024000 998000 243000 62000 3 1612000 972000 1042000 1002000 252000 61000 4 1646000 961000 1025000 1035000 233000 63000 5 1668000 952000 1022000 1004000 244000 64000 6 1639000 955000 1032000 1016000 252000 61000 7 1648000 958000 1034000 1023000 252000 63000 8 1634000 948000 1054000 1031000 257000 61000 9 1631000 950000 1021000 1011000 246000 6200010 1628000 974000 1045000 1020000 255000 6100011 1639000 969000 1024000 1027000 239000 6100012 1650000 938000 1053000 1021000 243000 6200013 1620000 968000 1034000 996000 250000 6200014 1635000 965000 1034000 1019000 234000 6100015 1633000 969000 1033000 1021000 248000 63000

VMT by Functional Class and VMT by Functional Class and ScenarioScenario

Variation in Percentage of Total VMT Occurring on Freeways

Percentage of VMT

Num

ber of S

cenarios

32.4 32.6 32.8 33.0 33.2 33.4 33.6 33.8

02

46

8

Variation in Percentage of Total Vehicle Hours Travelled

Percentage of Average

Num

ber of S

cenarios

-1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0

05

10

15

Variation in Percentage of Total Vehicle Hours of Delay

Percentage of Average

Num

ber of S

cenarios

-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15

02

46

8

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 43800 8000 12300 55400 36300 47900 12300 23100 2 40800 7200 13500 56000 34400 47800 11100 23700 3 43600 7800 13100 54800 36600 46800 11100 23600 4 41300 7800 13400 56500 36600 48300 11700 23200 5 43300 7900 13100 57000 35200 49100 11600 22900 6 44000 7700 10200 53700 38100 47600 10800 23400 7 43500 8600 15600 58600 39400 46500 11100 23900 8 44000 7700 11100 54600 42100 48000 10400 24100 9 44500 8300 11700 55100 34900 48500 11000 2310010 43600 8200 12300 54500 40800 48600 11300 2340011 41400 7600 11800 54000 42300 47900 10500 2350012 44400 7200 10200 54300 41500 49700 11200 2290013 46800 7500 17200 58600 35700 47300 11400 2390014 43300 7800 12200 55100 37700 49700 12000 2330015 45000 8500 13100 55900 36400 47800 11300 23600

ADT by Location and ScenarioADT by Location and Scenario

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 12.5 5.1 3.2 6.9 11.9 13.3 8.1 13.9 8.0 5.0 2 11.6 4.6 3.6 7.0 11.3 13.3 7.3 14.2 7.9 5.4 3 12.4 5.0 3.5 6.9 12.0 13.0 7.3 14.2 8.0 5.1 4 11.8 5.0 3.5 7.1 12.0 13.4 7.7 13.9 8.0 5.6 5 12.3 5.1 3.4 7.1 11.5 13.6 7.6 13.8 8.1 5.0 6 12.5 4.9 2.7 6.7 12.5 13.2 7.1 14.0 7.8 5.1 7 12.4 5.5 4.1 7.3 12.9 12.9 7.3 14.3 8.1 5.6 8 12.5 4.9 2.9 6.8 13.8 13.3 6.8 14.5 7.8 5.1 9 12.7 5.3 3.1 6.9 11.4 13.5 7.2 13.9 7.9 5.310 12.4 5.2 3.2 6.8 13.4 13.5 7.4 14.0 8.0 5.611 11.8 4.9 3.1 6.8 13.8 13.3 6.9 14.1 7.9 6.012 12.6 4.6 2.7 6.8 13.6 13.8 7.4 13.8 8.0 5.113 13.3 4.8 4.5 7.3 11.7 13.1 7.5 14.3 7.9 5.114 12.3 5.0 3.2 6.9 12.4 13.8 7.8 14.0 7.9 5.315 12.8 5.4 3.4 7.0 11.9 13.3 7.4 14.1 7.9 5.6

ADT by Location and ScenarioADT by Location and Scenario

RPS TAC Project Should be RPS TAC Project Should be Compared With ImpactsCompared With Impacts

Next StepsNext Steps

• Complete analysis of transportation performance measures.

• Show measures of transportation results as well as variation in measures.

• Identify transportation problems.• Analyze relationship between transportation

problems and land use patterns.• Write up results.• Develop presentation of results.