Roundabout Communication BC Election Projection, Week 3 Election 2013

ROUNDABOUT COMMUNICATIONS | KAMLOOPS BC

ROUNDABOUT COMMUNICATIONSKAMLOOPS,BC,CANADA

Summary

The Election Campaign Week 3: Roundabout Communications British Columbia Election Projection consists of the latest eleven (11) public opinion polls for voter intentions in BC. These eight polls combine for a “sample” of 9,548. If this were an actual scientific opinion poll the Margin of Error would be +/- 1%, 19 times out of 20.

Projection Highlights:

• Many new polls• BC Liberals gain seats and popular vote• Riding changes• Large Changes in Bubble and Swing Ridings

Due to both the BC Conservative and Green parties not running full slates, their regional results have been weighted to reflect those changes.

We will continue with a new projection each week of the election campaign, dependient on polls being released each week.

Regards,

Chad MoatsOwner

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra


Projection Methodology

Roundabout Communications compiles a “Poll of Polls” for the Electoral Projector. Most polling firms breakdown respondents by region. Therefore, Roundabout has divided our “Poll of Polls” into the following Regions of BC:

• Lower Mainland• Vancouver Island• Interior• North

Below is a graph showing all the polls included with final date each poll was in the field and sample size. The bar indicates the weight of each poll out of one (1).


1000

808

855

1055

1042

812

600

800

804

987

855

May 2,2013- Ipsos

May 2,2013- Angus

May 2,2013- Insight

April 30,2013- Forum

April 26,2013- Abacus

April 25,2013- Angus

April 23,2014 -Justason

April 14,2013- Ipsos

April 13, 2013- Angus

April 10, 2013-Ekos

March 31,2013- Insight

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14

0.13

0.11

0.12

0.14

0.13

0.09

0.06

0.06

0.06

0.07

0.03

Value of each poll used in projection

Value


Each poll's “n” , or number of respondents/ sample size, is divided by the total number of respondents to get the Initial Weight for each poll in the projector.

A Time Penalty is then assessed based on time elapsed since last day of most recent poll. A subjective amount that reduces the value of a single poll over time. Roundabout uses a 0.013 reduction of each poll's weighted value as a percentage of total “N” per week. Each week is counted back from the last day of the most recent poll and rounded to nearest week.

The algorithm is:

▪ (Weight of Poll's “N” – Time Penalty ) x Weighting Factor= Real Weight

This value is then applied to each poll for each poll's regional, where applicable, results.

Applying “Poll of Polls” to Constituency Projections.

Each Regional “Poll of Polls” is applied to each constituency result from the 2009 Election. In the cases of Vancouver-Point Grey, Chilliwack-Hope and Port Moody-Coquitlam have all had by-elections. These results have been applied to the projection at a weight of 1/3, with 2009 results being weighted at 2/3. The reasoning for having by-election results weighted lower are due to a few factors that include lower voter turn out, poor track record of incumbent governments in by-elections. However, being the most recent results can not be completely ignored, and must be included in the projection. We feel 1/3 is reasonable.

In the case of the four (4) Independent incumbent MLAs. A general rule is applied to Incumbent MLAs that are running again but have left there party since the 2009 election. There are currently 2 of those seeking to be re-elected as an Independent. They have been awarded 60% of their 2009 results as a member of their former party. This effects Abbotsford South and Cariboo North. A high profile former BC Liberal has announced his intentions to run in Abbottsford West. He has been given 10% of the BC Liberal 2009 vote total.



Bonuses

One of our readers suggested that local bonuses for Star Candidates, Leaders and Incumbents could enhance constituency level projections. We've included in this month's projection. We are interested to here, your suggestions for others that may qualify for a bonus.

• Incumbent Bonus : +15% of projected total◦ Applied to all incumbents.

• Party Leader Bonus: +25% ◦ Applied to Vancouver-Point Grey(Liberal),Vancouver-Kingsway

(NDP),Langley(Conservative) and Victoria-Beacon Hill (Green)• Star Candidate Bonus: +35%

◦ Applied to Langley(Conservative), Peace North (Independent) and Oak Bay-Gordon Head (Green)

Projection Changes from March 2013 Province wide % changes


Provincial Results Seats Change Vote % ChangeBC Liberal 28 +3 33.6% +3.7%BC NDP 53 -3 46.7% -0.4%

BC Green 0 - 10.1% -1.6%BC Conservative 0 - 9.6% -1.7%

IND 4 - 2.9% +0.1%Total 85


Regional changes


Northern BC Seats Change Vote % ChangeBC Liberal 2 +1 30.7% +3.7%BC NDP 5 -1 43.8% -2.1%

BC Green 0 - 8.2% -2.1%BC Conservative 0 - 12.6% +0.3%

IND 1 - 4.6% +0.1%Total 8

Interior BC Seats Change Vote % ChangeBC Liberal 8 +2 35.8% +5.9%BC NDP 9 -2 39.6% -0.5%

BC Green 0 - 7.3% -4.3%BC Conservative 0 - 11.5% -2.1%

IND 1 - 2.0% +0.1%Total 18

Lower Mainland Seats Change Vote % ChangeBC Liberal 16 - 33.8% +3.5%BC NDP 26 - 44.9% -0.6%

BC Green 0 - 7.6% -2.0%BC Conservative 0 - 8.6% +1.1%

IND 2 - 2.4% -0.1%Total 44

Vancouver Island Seats Change Vote % ChangeBC Liberal 2 - 25.0% +1.4%

BC NDP 13 - 48.6% -

BC Green 0 - 17.1% +2.4%

BC Conservative 0 - 7.6% -3.1%

IND 0 - 1.6% -0.7%

Total 15


Constituency Level Results


Northern BC BC Lib BC NDP BC Green BC Con Ind35.2% 32.8% 14.2% 12.0%15.2% 62.0% 18.4% 0.0%25.2% 16.0% 0.0% 11.5% 42.6%47.2% 32.6% 0.0% 15.6%33.2% 36.6% 16.0% 10.4%36.7% 42.1% 0.0% 16.3%16.9% 60.4% 0.0% 18.7%21.7% 53.3% 12.7% 8.6%

Nechako LakesNorth Coast

Peace River NorthPeace River South

Prince George-MackenziePrince George-Valemount

SkeenaStikine

Interior BC BC Lib BC NDP BC Con Ind24.0% 56.1% 10.9% 6.8%54.9% 42.0% 0.0% 0.0%12.7% 83.3% 0.0% 0.0%20.9% 63.6% 12.9% 0.0%34.5% 42.6% 19.5% 0.0%42.7% 24.0% 11.3% 17.2%50.2% 26.5% 0.0% 19.8%39.6% 37.2% 0.0% 19.8%34.1% 29.1% 15.8% 17.1%28.0% 29.2% 20.4% 14.5%50.1% 30.0% 0.0% 17.3%37.0% 49.3% 11.0% 0.0%34.1% 19.3% 0.0% 0.0% 44.1%28.0% 49.5% 10.6% 8.2%41.6% 44.5% 0.0% 9.5%46.3% 37.6% 0.0% 13.3%23.5% 46.3% 0.0% 24.9%33.4% 28.2% 13.8% 22.1%

BC Green

Columbia River-RevelstokeKootenay EastKootenay WestNelson-Creston

Boundary-SimilkameenKelowna-Lake Country

Kelowna-MissionPentictonShuswap

Vernon-MonasheeWestside-KelownaCariboo-Chilcotin

Cariboo NorthFraser-Nicola

Kamloops-North ThompsonKamloops-South Thompson

Chilliwack-HopeChilliwack



Lower Mainland BC NDP Green IND41.2% 35.3% 10.6% 11.3%

21.2% 31.2% 0.0% 0.0% 43.5%29.9% 32.9% 7.3% 16.7% 11.5%47.2% 31.0% 8.2% 10.6%40.0% 33.7% 8.1% 16.7%27.5% 48.5% 9.0% 11.5%32.8% 55.3% 8.1% 0.0%49.8% 35.9% 0.0% 12.4%22.4% 52.3% 7.9% 15.6%8.4% 73.7% 5.0% 11.2%

10.5% 75.0% 0.0% 12.0%37.2% 44.2% 7.6% 11.3%37.8% 48.3% 0.0% 12.0%10.2% 76.9% 0.0% 11.1%48.1% 28.4% 9.6% 10.5%24.9% 52.3% 6.3% 14.8%

26.7% 16.7% 0.0% 0.0% 54.6%44.1% 31.9% 8.7% 11.3%44.9% 33.1% 7.7% 10.6%46.9% 28.4% 8.0% 15.0%30.2% 60.5% 7.5% 0.0%22.8% 63.8% 8.6% 0.0%35.7% 52.8% 9.4% 0.0%31.5% 47.6% 7.9% 11.3%43.1% 35.9% 7.2% 10.6%31.7% 56.2% 7.6% 0.0%18.5% 57.9% 10.5% 11.3%22.2% 63.6% 0.0% 11.0%38.7% 52.8% 6.3% 0.0%37.5% 47.6% 11.8% 0.0%45.4% 35.2% 16.7% 0.0%32.5% 47.5% 6.4% 11.3%16.8% 67.5% 12.0% 0.0%22.4% 57.7% 7.8% 10.4%18.2% 65.4% 4.7% 9.0%45.3% 35.4% 7.1% 10.6%5.4% 76.0% 15.8% 0.0%

45.6% 37.3% 7.4% 7.6%58.8% 27.4% 11.8% 0.0%17.1% 68.5% 10.8% 0.0%35.6% 37.8% 9.6% 14.4%45.5% 28.4% 10.2% 14.3%58.2% 18.3% 0.0% 14.5%37.9% 26.1% 23.1% 11.3%

BC Liberal

BC Conserv

ativeAbbotsford-Mission

Abbotsford SouthAbbotsford West

Fort Langley-AldergroveLangley

Maple Ridge-MissionMaple Ridge-Pitt Meadows

Surrey-CloverdaleSurrey-Fleetwood

Surrey-Green TimbersSurrey-Newton

Surrey-PanoramaSurrey-TyneheadSurrey-Whalley

Surrey-White RockDelta North

Delta SouthRichmond CentreRichmond East

Richmond-StevestonBurnaby-Deer LakeBurnaby-EdmondsBurnaby-Lougheed

Burnaby NorthCoquitlam-Burke Mountain

Coquitlam-MaillardvilleNew Westminster

Port CoquitlamPort Moody-Coquitlam

Vancouver-FairviewVancouver-False CreekVancouver-FraserviewVancouver-Hastings

Vancouver-KensingtonVancouver-KingswayVancouver-Langara

Vancouver-Mount PleasantVancouver-Point GreyVancouver-QuilchenaVancouver-West End

North Vancouver-LonsdaleNorth Vancouver-SeymourWest Vancouver-Capilano

West Vancouver-Sea to Sky



Vancouver Island BC Liberal NDP Green21.3% 62.9% 0.0% 13.4%7.7% 57.7% 20.8% 11.2%

21.8% 42.4% 19.9% 14.6%21.9% 47.4% 17.4% 11.4%21.3% 48.2% 17.3% 11.4%29.2% 54.7% 0.0% 13.5%46.4% 36.4% 0.0% 15.0%18.9% 52.9% 27.3% 0.0%22.6% 57.4% 19.1% 0.0%34.1% 31.8% 22.5% 10.9%35.8% 40.0% 23.1% 0.0%30.1% 41.4% 15.4% 11.5%14.6% 54.0% 29.2% 0.0%15.1% 60.8% 22.4% 0.0%28.7% 56.1% 14.3% 0.0%

BC Conservative

Alberni-Pacific RimComox Valley

Cowichan ValleyNanaimo

Nanaimo-North CowichanNorth Island

Parksville-QualicumEsquimalt-Royal Roads

Juan de FucaOak Bay-Gordon Head

Saanich North and the IslandsSaanich South

Victoria-Beacon HillVictoria-Swan Lake

Powell River-Sunshine Coast


Projection Analysis

The Election Campaign Week 3: Roundabout Communications British Columbia Election Projection's results has produced some small but effective BC Liberal surge. The results is a tighter race in most regions.

Once again we have our “Swing Ridings” (trailing by 5% or <) and have added “Bubble Ridings” (trailing by 5%-10%). These are the individual constituencies that can make or break an election., and the BC Liberals are currently winning the contest.

Here's our Regional Snapshot, a quick look at the changes, momentum and swings in each of the four regions of BC.

Regional Snapshot

Northern BC

A complete switch from last projection, BC Liberals up and Nechako Lakes returns to their column. Peace River North still looks certain to elect an Independent.

BC Interior

Biggest gains by BC Liberals in all regions, mostly at expense of minor parties. All previous losses recouped and turning previous BC NDP safe seat into swing ridings

Lower Mainland

Mainly status quo in Lower Mainland, BC Liberals make some gains in popular vote and expense of BC Green Party, but no seats change hands.

Vancouver Island

The Island is solidly BC NDP with the exception of one Liberal stronghold and a tight NDP vs Liberal race. Oak Bay-Gordon Head is one of the closest contests in this election. Greens make huge gains and vault into second place in most ridings. Although still out of reach of an MLA.



Roundabout Communications BC Election 2013 Swing Ridings

BC NDP Swing Ridings (Trail by 5% or less)

The tightening in the polls, as wiped out the majority of NDP swing seats.

The BC NDP swing ridings as determined by Roundabout Communications are:

• Oak Bay-Gordon Head (-2.3 %)• Nechako Lakes (-2.4 %)• Penticton (-2.4 %)

The BC NDP trails by 5% or less in these three seats.

BC NDP Bubble Ridings (Trail by 5-10%)

• Vancouver-Langara (-9.9%)• Parksville-Qualicum (-10 %)• Kamloops-South Thompson (-8.7%)• Chilliwack (-5.2 %)• Abbotsford-Mission (-5.9 %)• Langley (-6.3%)• Coquitlam-Burke Mountain (-7.2 %)• Vancouver-Point Grey (-8.3 %)

These eight constituencies represent former BC Liberal safe seats. If current trend towards the BC Liberals continues BC , this election will be closer then expected at the outset.



BC Liberal Swing Ridings (Trail by 5% or less)

The BC Liberals have managed to secure a all there swing seats. Closing the overall gap with the BC NDP turning a predicted rout into a respectable showing and possibly their leader may keep her job.

The BC Liberal swing ridings as determined by Roundabout Communications are:• Saanich North & Islands (-4.2 %)• Abbotsford West (-3%)• Surrey-Panorama (-5 %)• North Vancouver-Lonsdale (-2.2 %)• Kamloops-North Thompson (-2.9%)• Vernon-Monashee (-1.2 %)• Prince George-Mackenzie (-3.4 %)

BC Liberal Bubble Ridings (Trail by 5-10%)

• Prince George-Valemount (-5.4 %)• Boundary-Similkameen (-8.1 %)

The BC Liberals Liberals have managed to move all bubble ridings into swing ridings and have moved all swing ridings into their column. Winning may not be in the cards but a strong Liberal opposition is looking more likely then even two weeks ago.

BC Conservative Swing Ridings (Trail by 5% or less)

Due to not running a full slate in 20099 the BC Conservative party is difficult to project Currently there are no BC Conservative Swing or Bubble Ridings

Please visit our website for BC Conservatives best chances to win,place or show.

BC Green Swing Ridings (Trail by 5% or less)

There are no BC Green Swing Ridings, or Bubble Ridings.

Please visit our website for BC Green Party best chances to win,place or show.


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Chad Moats,Owner

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Roundabout Communication BC Election Projection, Week 3 Election 2013

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