Rosen Consulting Group Employment California Million.

Rosen Consulting Group

EmploymentCalifornia

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5

13.0

13.5

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98

Million


EmploymentOakland MSA

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

1000

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98

Thousand


EmploymentSan Francisco MSA

850

875

900

925

950

975

1000

1025

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98

Thousand


EmploymentOrange County MSA

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98

Thousand


EmploymentLos Angeles MSA

3.4

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.8

3.9

4.0

4.1

4.2

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98

Million


EmploymentSan Jose MSA

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

1000

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98

Thousand


California MSA EmploymentRanked by Percent Change in Jobs

Rank Metropolitan Area Nov-97 Nov-98 Absolute

Change PercentChange

1 Riverside 855.3 897.0 41.6 4.9%

2 Ventura 245.6 255.1 9.5 3.9%

3 Vallejo 153.3 159.1 5.8 3.8%

4 Orange County 1249.7 1296.6 46.9 3.8%

5 Salinas 119.0 122.8 3.8 3.2%

6 Modesto 136.4 140.3 3.9 2.9%

7 Santa Rosa 166.4 170.9 4.5 2.7%

8 San Diego 1064.8 1092.4 27.6 2.6%

9 Oakland 962.3 987.1 24.9 2.6%

10 Los Angeles 3907.1 3998.3 91.3 2.3%


California MSA EmploymentRanked by Percent Change in Jobs

Rank Metropolitan Area Nov-97 Nov-98 Absolute

Change PercentChange

11 Stockton 169.4 173.3 4.0 2.3%

12 Sacramento 630.6 645.2 14.7 2.3%

13 Santa Barbara 152.1 155.6 3.5 2.3%

14 San Francisco 996.5 1015.5 19.0 1.9%

15 Fresno 278.5 282.9 4.5 1.6%

16 San Jose 946.8 956.6 9.8 1.0%

17 Bakersfield 181.2 182.4 1.3 0.7%


Single Family Housing Starts

813

1151

1309

1132

888892

1162

14511433

1194

852

705663

106810841072

11791146

1081

1003

894840

1030

11261192

1076

11611134

1265

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98

Units (000)


California Single Family Permits

71

113

124

103

76

90

140

175

143

127

87

6051

103

113114

147

136

162163

104

74 7670

7869

74

8493

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98

Units (000)


Existing Single Family Home Sales

1612

2018225223342272

2476

3064

3650

39863827

2973

2419

1990

27192868

32143474343635133346

32113220

3520

38023946

3802

40874215

4770

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98

Units (000)


Existing Single Family Home SalesCalifornia

266

361

426405401

455

559573

605587

465

336

234

343

382405

488512

562539

453425428435

483

425

506

555

631

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98

Units (000)


Housing Affordability

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98

% Able to Afford Median-Priced Home


California Housing Affordability

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98

% Able to Afford Median-Priced Home


Residential Mortgage RatesFixed and Adjustable

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

12%

13%

85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98

FRM

ARM


Existing Median Home Price Appreciation

7.78.2

10.710.3

7.9

12.6

13.514.4

11.7

6.8

2.1

3.73.0

4.3

6.4 6.6

4.3 4.3

2.6

5.0

3.43.0 2.8 2.8

4.7 5.0 4.8

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98

Annual % Change


Existing Median Home Price AppreciationCalifornia

7.29.210.0

20.2

16.9

28.1

13.8

18.718.3

8.2

3.82.3

-0.1

4.9

11.5

6.3

18.416.6

-1.2

3.8

-1.6

-4.6

-1.7-3.7

-0.6

5.0

8.2

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98

Annual % Change


World Output Growth

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%Pessimistic

Base

Annual Growth


Output GrowthNorth America

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

Annual Growth


Output GrowthWestern Europe

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

Annual Growth


Output GrowthAsia

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%Asia ex. Japan Japan

Annual Growth


Output GrowthSouth America

-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%

Annual Growth


Commodities PricesCopper, 1996-1998

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

US$ / Ton


Commodities PricesOil, 1996-1998

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

US$ / Barrel Brent Crude


World Economic OutlookRisks and Opportunities

• Asian Financial, Economic and Social Crises

• Asian Crises’ Effect on Other Regions

• Slow Pace of Banking Reform in Japan

• The Introduction of European Monetary Union

• Threat of Deflation - Worldwide Overcapacity

• Threat of Protectionism and Capital Controls


Exchange Rates1995 - 1998

-90%-80%-70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%

0%10%

Cumulative Change vs. USD


Exchange RatesVolatility, 1995 - 1998

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Annualized Standard Deviation


Country Risk IndexTotal Score

9.8 9.79.2 9.0 8.9

3.4 3.1 2.92.4

1.1

0

2

4

6

8

10

10=Best, 0=Worst


Country Return IndexTotal Score

8.1 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.46.8

0

2

4

6

8

10

10=Best, 0=Worst


Country Return IndexTotal Score, 1998-1999

6.8

4.8 4.84.2 3.8 3.7 3.4

2.6 2.51.8

0.00

2

4

6

8

10

10=Best, 0=Worst


Risk and ReturnCountry Index Comparison

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0246810

Return Index

Risk Index

Netherlands

United States Sweden

Italy

Spain

United Kingdom

Singapore

Hong Kong

Poland

ChinaArgentina

Czech Republic

BrazilTurkey

Thailand

Indonesia

Japan

Finland


Real Estate Cycle

Overshooting Phase

AbsorptionPhase

DeclinePhase

GrowthPhase

Jakarta - 1:30

Lisbon/New York/San Francisco - 6:30

San Jose/Warsaw - 8:00

12

9 3

6

Bangkok/Seoul - 4:00

Tokyo - 2:30

Office

Hong Kong/Singapore - 2:00

Atlanta - 9:30

London - 8:30

Berlin - 5:00

Madrid - 5:30Paris - 6:00


Central London Office MarketSupply and Demand

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5Construction

Net Absorption

Square Feet, Millions


London - City SubmarketOffice Vacancy Rate

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Vacancy Rate


London - City SubmarketPrime Office Rents

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

GBP per Square Foot


Hong KongApartment Prices (“C” Units)

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

110,000

HK $ per Square Meter


Hong Kong Office MarketSupply and Demand

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800Construction

Net Absorption

Square Meters, 000s


Hong KongOffice Vacancy Rate

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Vacancy Rate

Rosen Consulting Group Employment California Million.

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Transcript of Rosen Consulting Group Employment California Million.