Room to Breathe: The BA's role in project estimation

Robert T. Merrill, Principal

uFunctional LLC

Room to BreatheThe BA Role in Project

Commitments

You’re about to learn how to…• Facilitate estimates using

The Stretch• Talk about targets, estimates,

and commitments, andshape realistic expectations

• Prepare and use a requirements-based project history forparametric estimation

Signs of suffocation• Schedule slips• Cost overruns• Forced overtime• Half-finished features scrapped• Late-lifecycle tasks cut short• Poor quality• Net negative value

In the beginning was the ship date, and the requirements were without form, and void… Inception 1:2

The Stretch1. Visual Aid

2. Outcome

3. Team and Tools

4. Suggest crazy low number

5. Suggest crazy high number

6. Repeat until you have a curve

100

0

25

50

7590

Estimate to achieve Outcome

10

Product ConceptGreenRide promotes carpooling.

Employees enter their address, work start and end times, and vehicle info. Employees see everyone on a map, marked as being a carpool member or not.

A user admin creates employee accounts.

Product ConceptEmployees can join a carpool or start their own.

Employees mark days when they carpooled, and see how much they saved on fuel and CO2 emissions.

Product Concept

100

0

50

Team: Two strong ASP.NET, HCJ (HTML/ CSS/ Javascript) and SQL Server programmers.

Then I’ll lead you through an estimate.

MO0 9Prepare a Stretch chart for yourself.

%

The Stretch100

0

25

50

7590

10

The Stretch100

0

25

50

7590

10

10% 50% 90%

The Stretch100

0

25

50

7590

10

10% 50% 90%

2 mo

4 mo

8 mo

The Stretch100

0

25

50

7590

10

10% 50% 90%

2 mo

4 mo

8 mo

4 months 50%,2-8, 80%

Expressing EstimatesFor the proposed scope and

team, the project has a 90% chance of being done as scheduled by the end of Q3 2011.

Given three months and the named 2-person team, the project has a 75% chance of delivering the defined scope.

Expressing EstimatesAs defined, the product cost has

an 80% chance of being between $100K and $400K.

If it doesn’t come with a probability, it’s not an estimate.

It’s something else.

Four Brutal Facts

1. Ranges and probabilities will be unacceptable to someone.

2. The size of the range will be unacceptable to someone else.

3. The only way to reduce the range is to reduce sources of uncertainty.

Four Brutal Facts

4. Reducing sources of uncertainty takes:

• Decisions that stick

• Time

• Money

I just need a rough estimate. I won’t hold you to it. —Pinocchio

So it begins. —Théoden

Key Definitions

Target: Desired outcomeI’d like the shopping feature in time for holiday peak.

Estimate: Likelihood of an outcomeThe team has a 50% chance of finishing the shopping feature by December 1.

Commitment: Agreement to an outcomeBoss: It’s live by November 1st, or else.Team: OK, we’ll get it done somehow.

Desk-Pounder Scenario

Negotiated Scenario

A famous, misused chart

(The Cone of Uncertainty, from Software Estimation) 1.0x

4.0x

0.25x



4.0x

0.25x

TotalUncertainty

(Scope &Effort)



4.0x

0.25x



4.0x

0.25x

TotalUncertainty

(Scope &Effort)

InitialConcept

UI DesignComplete

The Estimation Problem

Your Mission…

Preserve Your Project’s

Room to Breathe

Through the Hot Zone

Crossing the Hot Zone• Understand it yourself• Encourage sound thinking• Negotiate well

–Delay commitment–Commit near the top of the Cone

Crossing the Hot Zone• Improve–Estimation (zero bias, real ranges)–Process—reduce uncertainty sooner–Project management

Sources of Uncertainty

Technology

RequirementsWe don’t know what it needs to do.

TeamWe don’t know how long that’s going to take.

TechnologyWe don’t know if that framework and those components are going to play nice.

Uncertainty is Increasing

Technology

RequirementsVolatility

TeamMore rolesVirtual teams

TechnologyLanguages PlatformsComponents Frameworks

Crossing the Hot Zone

Mistaken beliefsStretch goals

Parkinson’s Law and Student Syndrome

Trade quality for speed

Just add people

Gambling and suboptimal results

…are linear; suffocation is exponential

Haste makes waste

Mythical-Man-Month (1960s)

Common phrasesYou hear…You might say…I’ll find

somebody who

will!

That sounds like a threat to me (Pause). Especially if my job’s on the line, I can’t afford to risk my reputation by agreeing to something that I don’t think is true!

Common phrasesYou hear…You might say…But I’ve already

toldthe

CEO.

It’s good we’re finding out so quickly that’s probably not achievable. Would you like some help explaining to her why, and looking for the best option we do have?

Common phrasesYou hear…You might say…

There are

business realities

here.

Reality is good. Help me better understand the value proposition here. We can figure out something that will deliver value in that time frame—more than a failed project would.

Common phrasesYou hear…You might say…

I’d like to hear more of

a ‘Can-Do’ attitude

from you folks.

I’m real big on keeping commitments, and I’ve found it’s best if I don’t make commitments I can’t keep. I’d sure like to help you set goals for this project that we can all commit to.

Common phrases

The mighty oak was once justa little nut that stood its ground.

Do the math. —Anonymous

Parametric estimationAt its simplest:

Or fancier:

Hours=Hours per Countable Thing

XNumber of Countable Things

Countable things1. Related to effort2. Available early3. Low overhead4. Countable from software itself5. Not too ambiguous6. Makes non-technical sense

I’ve used: Lines of Code (LOC),Use Cases, Use Case Points, &Function Points

Making a parametric estimate1. Count (or estimate) the

Countable Thing (CTs)2. Look at Hours per Countable

Thing (HCT) from comparable projects (size, team, technology)

3. Multiply4. Estimate range

Example—Project History90-100 Countables in Greenride


Designers arguing


20 Reused

Designers arguing


20 Reused

Designers arguing

Most like “N”

Example—Reasoning and Math

HCT =___ to ____

HCT=12.5-20%=10.0


HCT =___ to ____

HCT=12.5-20%=10.0Range 1.75x, so 5.7 to 17.5


HCT =___ to ____

HCT=12.5-20%=10.0Range 1.75x, so 5.7 to 17.5

5.7 17.5


HCT =___ to ____

H =___ x ____

HCT=12.5-20%=10.0Range 1.75x, so 5.7 to 17.5

5.7

9517.5

5.71700540

17.5


HCT =___ to ____

H =___ x ____

M =___ / (2 x ____)

HCT=12.5-20%=10.0Range 1.75x, so 5.7 to 17.5

5.7

9517.5

5.71700540

1700540 150

62

17.5


HCT =___ to ____

H =___ x ____

M =___ / (2 x ____)

HCT=12.5-20%=10.0Range 1.75x, so 5.7 to 17.5

5.7

9517.5

5.71700540

1700540 150

62

50% 3 months

17.5

80% 2-6 months

Parametric estimate—summary• Independent check• Negotiates well• Requires project history (3 or

more)• Project history is easy but no

one likes to maintain itThe best time to plant a tree is 30 years ago. The second best time is today.

You now know how to…

• Facilitate estimates usingThe Stretch

• Talk about targets, estimates, and commitments, andshape realistic expectations

• Prepare and use a requirements-based project history forparametric estimation

It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future. —Yogi Berra

Room to Breathe: The BA's role in project estimation

Technology

Transcript of Room to Breathe: The BA's role in project estimation