Role of Forestry in Climate Change
description
Transcript of Role of Forestry in Climate Change
DR.VINCENT ONGUSO OEBA
[email protected] or [email protected]
Mobile: +254-720-475053
+254-733-244911
ROLE OF FORESTRY IN CLIMATE CHANGESustainable Forest Management, Mitigation and Adaptation & Initiatives
to Encourage Communities to Preserve Forests
Executive climate change and carbon trading course 12-16th Nov 2012, KEFRI: Africa Carbon
Exchange
1.0. Introduction
Forests play a significant role in improving people’s livelihoods
directly and indirectly through provision of: Wood and non-wood forest products.
Importantly, they regulate climate change through carbon
sequestration.
They stabilize soil, treat waste, provide habitats, and offer
opportunity for recreation.
These benefits are on continuous decrease due to reduction of area
under trees
Climate Change Phenomena
11/16/2012
Introduction-Evidence of climate change
Melting of Ice Indicators & Effect
Mt. Kenya lost 92% of its ice mass while Mt. Kilimanjaro lost 82% which comprises an important source of river streams and springs
There are changes in the ecosystem and loss of biodiversity, spread of infectious diseases such as malaria since increase of temperature favours the breeding of disease carrying insects, animals and microbes in the places they did not exist before.
More frequent and severe with time like La Nina of 1999-2001
Flooding-Budalangi, Nzoia
Severe socio-economic impact: loss of life, livestock, migration, poor yield
11/16/2012
2.0. IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE
ON FORESTS
2.0. Global Impact of CC on Forest
Climate
factor
Cell level Organism
level
Species level Ecosystem
level
CO2
increase
-Photosynthetic rate
increase
-Stomatal conductance
reduction
-Growth rate increase
-Water use efficiency
increase
-Seed production
increase
-Decreased seed mortality
-Increased recruitment
Period for individuals to
reach maturity
-Changes in individual
density?
-Biomass production
increase
-Alteration in species
competitiveness
-Changes in species
composition
Temperature
increase
-Photosynthesis increase
or decrease
-Photosynthetic period can
increase
-Transpiration increase
-Primary production
positive or negative
changes
-Seed production changes
Regeneration rate changes
Possible increase in tree
mortality.
Negative consequences for
species sensitive to temperature
changes
Alterations in species
Competitiveness.
Species’ composition
Changes.
Soil mineralization
Increase.
Rainfall
regime
changes
Growth rate decrease Seed mortality rate
increase
Increase of mature
individuals’
mortality rate
Alternation in species
competitiveness
Species composition
changes
Impact of Climate Change on Forests: Regional & National Perspectives
Forest and climate interaction: Globally
The climate is an important determinant of the geographical distribution, composition and productivity of forests, species populations and migration, the occurrence of pests and diseases and of forests regeneration.
Forests expected to respond to changes in temperature and to increases /decreases in precipitation brought about on by climate change
Changes in different climate variables would result in adjustments at different levels
Projected impacts of CC: Africa
In the case of Africa, changes induced by climate change are also likely to result in species rangeshifts, as well as in changes in tree productivity, adding stress to forest ecosystems.
ASIA Boreal forests in North Asia would move
further north. A projected large increase in taiga is likely to displace tundra, while the northward movement of the tundra will in turn decrease polar deserts.
Large populations of many other species could also be extirpated as a result of the synergistic effects of climate change and habitat fragmentation.
The areal coverage of broad-leaved Korean pine forests is projected to decrease by 20 to 35% with a significant northward shift. About 90% of the suitable habitat for a dominant forest species, beech tree, in Japan could disappear by the end of this century.
The overall impact of climate change on the forest ecosystems of Pakistan could be negative.
Increasing intensity and spread of forest fires in North and South-East Asia were largely related to rises in temperature and declines in precipitation in combination with increasing intensity of land uses.
The uncertainty lies on whether the expected increase in temperature would beenough to trigger more frequent and severe fires despite the projected increase in precipitation. One study on the impacts of climate change on fires show that for an average temperature increase of 1°C, the duration of wild fire season in North Asia could increase by 30%, which could have varying adverse and beneficial impacts on biodiversity, forest structure and composition, outbreaks of pest and diseases, wildlife habitat quality and other key forest ecosystem
functions.
National Perspective-Kenya
Do we have any data on impact of CC on Forests in Kenya?
We need to document
evidence of climate of
change on Kenyan forests.
How do we start?
What are the KEFRI
strategies?
Take home message on Impact of CC on Forests
Any impact on the forests, in turn, could have profound implications for traditional livelihood, industry, biodiversity, soil and water resources, and hence, agricultural productivity.
Moreover, these climate change induced effects would aggravate the existing stresses due to non-climate factors such as land use changes and the unsustainable exploitation of natural resources.
Impact of changes in forest types due to climate change is expected to be larger on communities who depend on forests for livelihoods and subsistence.
Communities who are more vulnerable due to their nature of livelihoods also face additional impacts due to their poor socioeconomic condition, low asset holdings and poor access to infrastructure
3.0. OPPORTUNITIES: Mitigation
and Adaptation
Trees and Mitigation of climate change
11/16/2012PHD DEFENCE KENYATTA UNIVERSITY
Illustration of various changes in forest cover, and corresponding emissions and removals of carbon
Forests/Woodlands of Eastern and Southern Africa –
Mitigating Climate Change
Ecosystem / Forest Type Average C Stock (t ha-1)
Miombo Woodlands 60
Coastal Forests (excluding mangroves) 95
Evergreen Catchment Forests 195
Mangrove Forests 180 Non Marine Wetlands 50
Acacia Savanna woodlands 30 Source: Munishi 2010, Munishi et al 2011, Zahabu, 2006, Katoomba Group, 2009
Forests/Woodlands of Eastern and Southern
Africa – Mitigating Climate Change
Protection of existing forests – conserves the existing carbon stocks
Afforestation, reforestation, and forest productivity improvements – to enhance existing carbon stocks
Restoration of degraded lands by tree /shrub planting –enhances existing C stocks on land
Substitution of fossil fuels by sustainably produced fuel-wood
Forests/Woodlands of Eastern and Southern Africa –
Mitigating Climate Change
Address the causes of deforestation and forest
degradation:
provide affordable and sustainable alternative energy sources gas, biogas and improved utilization of fuel-wood and bio-fuels avoid shifting cultivation through conservation tillage, use of
fertilisers and manure, and agroforestry Small holder forestry to meet timber/other forest product
demands
Embark on better land use management through
REDD+ policy
3.1. Climate Compatible Development What is climate compatible development?
This is the development that minimises the harm caused by climate impacts, while
maximising the many human development opportunities presented by low emissions,
more resilient future
Climate change and responses to it are changing patterns of:
Innovation
Trade
Production
Population distribution and
Risk in complex ways
This is creating new development landscape for policy makers, who need to nurture and
sustain economic growth and social development in the face of multiple threats &
uncertainties while also cutting emissions or keeping them low
Climate compatible development (CCD) goes one step further by
asking policy makers to consider “triple win” strategies: low
emissions; build resilience & promote development simultaneously.
CCD: A new development landscape
CRD: Climate resilient Development Source: Improved from Climate & Development Knowledge Network
Development Strategies:
Aligns the challenges posed by CC:
exploit opportunities of carbon mkt;
demand for cleaner energy fuels
Adaptation strategies:
take advantage of climate
impact at all scales: create high
levels of economic & livelihood
diversity, promote skills,
learning & innovation, reduce
dependence on ecosystems
services, reduce inequality,
involve participation of
stakeholdersMitigation Strategies:
using less energy, generatting more energy from
low emissions, protecting carbon stores such as
forests, encourage development of low emissions
technologies & provide incentives to discourage
high emissions investment
Climate Compatible developmentLow carbon
development CRD
Co-benefits
Example of Pro-poor low emissions
development in Guyana
Guyana’s 2009 low carbon development strategy on payments for
preserving its rainforest through REDD+ mechanism. The payment
will be used to invest in : clean energy (hydropower), flooded-related adaptation & developing village
economies including strengthening health & education
In 2020: low carbon infrastructure, increase employment in low
carbon sectors & secure new poverty reduction opportunities for
forest dependent & indigenous communities
Has benefited from strong domestic leadership, key bilateral financing
relationship with Norway and support from World Bank’s Carbon
Partnership Facility
Take Home Message
To achieve climate compatible development, policy makers need to:
Develop national and sub national governance systems, including
legislative, institutional architecture, regulatory and accountability
measures that can take advantage of combining efforts to lower
emissions or keep emissions low, build resilience, grow & develop
Integrate measures to build resilience & reduce risk into
development & low emissions with strategies
Ensure transition to resilient low emissions growth have significant
benefits for poor people
Acknowledge and plan for the threats & opportunities associated
with a new international, climate related development landscape
3.2. The Green Economy
What is Green Economy (GE)?
UNEP defines GE as one that results in improved human well being
and social equity, while significantly reducing environmental risks and
ecological scarcities.
GE can be thought of as one which is low carbon, resource efficient
and socially inclusive
In GE, growth income should be driven by public and private
investments that reduce carbon emissions & pollution, enhances
energy & resource efficiency & prevent the loss of biodiversity &
ecosystems services
Green Growth: Implications for
Development Planning
Lower GHG intensity
Economic growth
Human development & poverty reductionEnhanced
Biodiversity & Ecosystem
Climate change resilient
Tackling climate
changeLow-carbon
growth
GREEN
GROWTHValuing
natural
capital
Strengthening
communities &
habitats
Equitable
growth
Regional Training Course on Mitigating Climate Change in
Africa Through Social Forestry 24th Oct.to 25th Nov.
2011
Case study: Estimated returns from sale of wood &
Carbon credits-Kenyan plantation forests
Site
Tree
species
Stand density ha-1
Age (years)
Income (Ksh) from AGB
tCO2e ha-1
Income (Ksh) from clearfelling m3ha-
1
Kiambu C. lusitanica 800 8 268,859 323,694
590 14 603,330 775,773
532 24 1,338,740 1,821,856
E. saligna 1238 7 738,409 947,738
250 10 152,913 185,515
150 12 559,470 581,266
P. patula 550 6 383,774 420,315
200 10 352,055 358,023
506 13 947,698 966,042
60 32 560,638 636,229
Discourse on Carbon pricing Example:
a 32 age Pinus patula stand of 60 trees per ha at Kiambu had an
average DBH of 59 cm. This yielded an average cost of Ksh. 9,837
per tree at clearfelling having absorbed about 5.84 tCO2 an
equivalent of 182 kg of carbon dioxide per year.
This implied that the minimum value a tree investor could get from
carbon sale at unit cost of US $10 (Ksh.800) would be about
Ksh.4,672 as compared to Ksh. 9,837 implying that the expected
minimum cost of a carbon credit should be around US $21 (Ksh.
1,685) at this age of tree stand and site.
Enabling condition for GE Establish sound regulatory frame works
Prioritizing government investment and spending in areas that
stimulate the greening of economic sectors
Limiting spending in areas that deplete natural capital
Employing taxes and market based instruments to shift
consumer preference and promote green investment &
innovation
Invest in capacity building and training
Strengthening international governance
Financing the Green Economy
This can be mobilized by smart public policy and innovative
financing mechanisms
Rapid growth of capital markets, growing green orientation of these
markets, evolution of emerging market instruments such as carbon
finance & micro finance & the green funds established are opening
space foe large scale financing of a global green economic
transformation.
UNDP and UNEP in support of national efforts to reduce
deforestation and forest degradation and enhance forest carbon-
stocks along with REDD+ mechanisms can provide an important
vehicle to drive green economy.
Donor pledges to REDD+ partnership, including UN REDD
programme, REDD+ partnership, Forest Carbon Facility, the GEF
and Forest investment programme among others amount to USD 5
billion through 2012.
PES hold wider promises