Roger Nelson- Questions and Explorations Probing the GCP database: What matters, What doesn’t What...

8/3/2019 Roger Nelson- Questions and Explorations Probing the GCP database: What matters, What doesnt What questions we can ask

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Questions and ExplorationsProbing the GCP databaseWhat matters, What doesntWhat questions we can ask

Questions and ExplorationsProbing the GCP databaseWhat matters, What doesntWhat questions we can ask

Society for Scientific ExplorationLas Vegas, Nevada, May 2004Roger Nelson, Princeton, NJ


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Global Consciousness Project5.5 Years of Continuous DataGlobal Consciousness Project5.5 Years of Continuous DataInternational collaboration100 Scientists, Artists, Friends, REG technology, Field applicationNetwork of Host Sites around the worldStructurally somewhat like an EEGCall it an ElectroGaiaGram (EGG)

International collaboration100 Scientists, Artists, Friends, REG technology, Field applicationNetwork of Host Sites around the worldStructurally somewhat like an EEGCall it an ElectroGaiaGram (EGG)


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A Worldwide Network of EGGs(An REG, A Computer, The Internet)

A Worldwide Network of EGGs(An REG, A Computer, The Internet)

Yellow dots are nodes in the network

.


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Internet Transfer to Data Archive in Princeton

Here are the data for a whole day, from 48 eggs


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Continuous MonitorLook for Changes and Patterns

Correlated with Engaging EventsNatural Disasters

Terrible AccidentsBeginnings of War

Grand Celebrations

Political Excitement

Worldwide Meditations

Continuous MonitorLook for Changes and Patterns

Correlated with Engaging EventsNatural Disasters

Terrible AccidentsBeginnings of War

Grand Celebrations

Political Excitement

Worldwide Meditations


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The jagged red line shows three days of a measure(squared cumulative deviation of variance) thatrepresents the composite randomness of 37 eggs.

On September 11, the data show clear structurewhere there should be none.

am

am

am

More at http://noosphere.princeton.edu

.... Normal range of variation

Global Emotion: Transfixed by Tragedy

On September 11 2001, early in the morning, a network ofphysical random event generators (called eggs) took on astriking trend. By 8:45 the non-random behavior wasunmistakable. It peaked at about 10:30 with odds againstchance of a thousand to one. See the red trace below.

Other measures also deviated from expectation on that day,creating an unmistakable pattern where there should benone. The eggs became linked across distance and time insome subtle way that we do not yet know how to explain.

This is not a physical or electromagnetic effect. Its not dueto extraordinary mobile phone use, or saturation TV.

It appears to be related to our profound engagement.

On 9/11 the data showed

extraordinary moments

On 9/11 the data contained

unique sequential structure

On 9/11 deviations began

that persisted for 2 days


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Great Participatory Gatherings

After Terrorist Bombings in MadridAll of Spain Came Out in Commiseration


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Global Attention: Sharing New Years Eve

All over the world, people celebrate the change to a NewYear. Since 1998, we have recorded data from a networkof physical random event generators (called eggs). Herewe look at what happens at midnight around the world.

The scientific prediction is that there will be a pattern ofincreased correlation among the eggs. We test for trendsaway from the expected random walk. We have learnedto expect reductions in the variation across the eggs.

The figures on this page almost speak for themselves.They are pictures of our engagement with each other.

Variance Drop, Midnight, 1999-2000

Then, for the infamousY2K transition, we looked

at a measure of the

variability among the eggs

and predicted it would

decrease as we all focused

on midnight.

We predicted the same pattern

for the following year.

And again for last year. The pattern

is replicated for the third time.

More at http://noosphere.princeton.edu

In the first year, 1998-1999, we

looked for a change in the average

deviation, and compared Maxi- andMini-celebration time zones.


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Current Result: Formal Database

170+ Global Events Over 5.5 YearsOdds: Less Than 2 Parts in a Million


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Now for SomeInteresting Questions

Does the Type of Event Matter?Positive or Negative Valence?

Compassion? Predictability?

Number of People Engaged?

Distance of EGGs from Event?

Is it Just an Experimenter Effect?


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Distribution of Event Z Scores:

Roughly Normal, Shifted by 0.37 Std Dev

z-Test: Two Sample for Means

Variable 1 Variable 2

Mean -0.01163904 0.372648

Known Variance 1.001459 1.080784

Observations 10000 159

Hypothesized Mean 0

z -4.62710645P(Z


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There Is a Slight Decline in the Z Score

Over Time, but It Is Not SignificantFormal Events, Linear Regression

y = -0.0021x + 0.5432

R2

= 0.0089

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Chronological Order

Z-score


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Grouping into Reasonable Categories

Shows a Substantial DifferentiationEffects as a Function of Event Type

y = -0.0841x + 1.0846

R2

= 0.9713

-1

0

1

dem

ons

tration

relie

f,ending

celebr

ation

cerem

ony,

relig

act

ofwar

accid

ent,

crash

astron

,astrol

sportseve

nt

medita

tion

social

eve

nt

terrorattack

nat

dis

aster

politi

cale

vent

web

prom

otion

anniv

ers

ary

Categories

EffectSize

Statistically Significant

Effect > 1 Std Dev

Not Distinguishable


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Categories and CaveatsDespite variation, we find illuminating

differences among event subsets.

Categories are arbitrary, but groupings

we think make sense.

There are confounds that makeanswers tentative even if interesting.


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Some Events We Examine Are Expected

But Many Come Without Warning(The Difference Is Not Significant)


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The Number of People Paying Attention

Has a Substantial Effect on the NetworkSignificant but Confounded with Importance


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Events That Seem to Evoke or Comprise

Love and Compassion Have Larger EffectsHypothesis proposed by Jaan Suurkula


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Positive and Negative Valence Events

Have Larger Effects Than Neutral Events(For Positive, the Difference Is Significant)


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Does the Distance of the Eggs

From the Event Make a Difference?The form of the question affects the answer.

Bottom line: It looks like there is

modest evidence that closer eggsshow bigger effect.


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And what about the Experimenter Effect?

Is this all a result of our wishful thinking?No Significant Difference

Overall

But Remember the Source


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Bigger Picture:What is our aspiration?Bigger Picture:What is our aspiration?Sharpen and focus our questionsAim for theoretical understanding

Create accessible data resourceCorrelate with external variables

News IntensityGeomagnetic WeatherElectromagnetic Background

Sharpen and focus our questionsAim for theoretical understanding

Create accessible data resourceCorrelate with external variables

News IntensityGeomagnetic WeatherElectromagnetic Background

M j A l i P j t With P t B l


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Major Analysis Project With Peter BancelMaking the GCP Database Into a Data Resource

Error-free, Normalized, Reliable, Flexible, Compact

Graph shows

stability of a

subset of

REG devices

over years.

Arrow identifies

a failure.

Bad data are

excised.

Id th t h b iti


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Ideas that have been waiting

Correlations of News Intensity IndexWith Statistical Measures from GCP Data

For example:

Marcos Weskamps

Newsmap at

www.marumushi.com

Visually reflects the

changing Landscape

of the Google Newsnews aggregator.


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However marvelous we may find the

human ability to discover such anelegant and simple law as the Law of

Gravitation, equally marvelous is howclever nature is to pay attention to it.

- - Richard Feynman

The Global Consciousness Project

http://noosphere.princeton.edu

Roger Nelson- Questions and Explorations Probing the GCP database: What matters, What doesn’t What...

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