Roger Derrien Managing Director, Wireless Business Development A/P Lucent Technologies
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Transcript of Roger Derrien Managing Director, Wireless Business Development A/P Lucent Technologies
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Roger DerrienManaging Director, Wireless Business Development A/P
Lucent Technologies
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What are our end-users expecting?
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Is it UMTS? What’s that!
Is it cdma2000? Could be but I don’t know what that is either.
Is it harmonization? Maybe but what are we harmonizing.
Is it cheap, high speed, reliable service with killer applications?Yes, most definitely!!
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Wireless Usage Will Soar
$0.00
$0.05$0.10
$0.15$0.20
$0.25
$0.30$0.35
$0.40$0.45
$0.50
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
$/ M
inut
e of
Use
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Subs
crib
ers
(Mill
ions
); M
inut
es o
f Use
(Bill
ions
)
Cost/ MOU ($)
MOU (B)
Subscribers (M)
[Source: Merrill Lynch]
Rapidly declining costs per MOU and new services will drive subscriber growth and usage
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Wireless Market Perspective
Early 80’s: How many cars need a telephone?
Late 90’s: How many people need a telephone?
Wireless market consistently underestimated because of unanticipated market changes.
Time
Premium Service
‘92 Conventional Wisdom
‘94 CW
‘97 CW
‘98CW
50% _ 40%_
30%_
20%_
10%_
0% _
% P
enet
ratio
n
Did not anticipate portable phone.
Did not anticipate pre-paid
‘99CW
Did not anticipate ???
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How do we take them there?
Networks - today’s networks are data capable. Operators need to start there migration today to keep up with the future network demands of tomorrow.
Through an evolution of: Applications - internet, location based services and
transaction based applications over WAP will drive demand
Markets - operators need to determine what type of role they want to play in wireless data and what market segments to go after
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09 February, 20000% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
USA
Japan
Asia/Pacific
West Europe
ROW MobileSubsrciberPenetrationInternetPenetration
Internet and Mobile Subscriber Penetration - 2004
Source: ARC Group
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Data Rates for Wireless Services
30
Mas
s M
arke
t Dem
and
(5 y
ear v
iew
)
CreditCard
Verification
ShortMessageServices
RemoteOffice
IntegratedMessaging
LargeFile Transfer
MultimediaWWW
WirelessPostcard
Data rates assume lightly loaded packet channel. Optimized mediaaccess control necessary to assureadequate response time in highusage case.
Video/MultimediaConference
LimitedBroadcast
Video
Networkedcomputing
Fax
44-64 Kbps 144 Kbps 2 Mbps384 Kbps14.4 Kbps9.6 Kbps
Data Rate<9.6 Kbps
E-Banking/E-Commerce
Web Clipping
InteractiveGames &
Entertainment
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• 2.5G & 3G enables personalization and integration– Individualized services across multiple networks– Seamless personal service delivery– Online, anywhere, anytime -- always on– m - commerce
Today’sToday’s communications are via multiple devices with the dependence on interfacing with intranets for timely
business information
Where The Internet And Mobility Intersect
InternetMobility
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Buildings
Computers
People
Homes Appliances
TransportationVehicles & Systems
VendingMachines
$$
....
..
Communications Network Transformation
Multiple Connections per Person Networking Embedded in Household and Business Devices Full Time, “Always On” Connectivity, At Home, At Work, and On the Go:
Wireline: Fixed Broadband for Business, Entertainment & High End Applications Wireless: Mobility for Convenience & Portability Converged Services available via multiple forms of access.
IntelligentSubscriber Devices
People to People People to Things Things to Things
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Influences on IMT-2000 “Family of Systems”
A “Family of Systems” for IMT-2000 services, ensuring network standards interoperability.
Cdma2000 & DoCoMo WCDMA
ARIB & TTC
ANSI-41 / WIN &GSM-MAP/CAMEL
Asia/Pacific
Cdma2000 & UWC-136
ANSI-41/ WIN
TIA TR 45
North America
UTRA
GSM-MAP / CAMELEuropeETSI
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Network Options for GSM & cdmaOne Data Evolution per Ovum Research
cdmaOne Network Options
3X3X
No 3XNo 3X
cdmaOnecdmaOneIS-95AIS-95A
1998 1999 2000 2001
1X1X
GSM Network OptionsSource: Ovum ResearchPublished: Mobile Communications International
UMTSUMTS
No UMTSNo UMTS
HSCDHSCD
GPRSGPRS
GSMGSM
1998 1999 2001 2003
EDGEEDGE
IS-95BIS-95B
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IMT-2000 Evolution Path Options
2G 2.5G 3G/ IMT-2000 ServicesExisting Spectrum
GSM900,1800
GPRS
GSM MOU
GSM
GSM 1900
GPRS
ETSIW-CDMA
3G NNIGSM N. America
Existing Spectrum New Spectrum
EDGE
IS-95A ANSI-95IS-95B
cdma2000Phase 11.25MHz
cdma2000Phase 2
5MHz
CDG
ANSI-41New Software
Changes toBS and Mobile
New HW and/or SWNew Mobiles/Data Device
Utilize Existing Voice Channels
New Software New Circuit Packs
New MobilesExisting Mobiles Still
Compatible
New BS & SWNew Mobiles/Data Device
Utilize Existing Voice Channels
New SoftwareNew BS Modules
New MobilesExisting Mobiles Still
Compatible
New SpectrumNew Air Interface
New MobilesBackward
Compatibility with GSM-MAP
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Summary• It’s critical that we do not get consumed by the technology but stay
focused on the END-USER needs
• DoCoMo has shown us all that the issue is not access but providing key marketable applications to the end-user
• Even with all the efforts of the OHG there are still at least 3 distinct paths in supporting an evolution to IMT - 2000
Existing cdmaOne operators should deploy a 1XRTT solution migrating to 3G3X (CDMA2000)
Existing GSM operators will migrate to GPRS/EDGE migrating to UMTS through the purchase of new spectrum
Existing TDMA operators will follow a similar path as GSM stopping at EDGE
• Bottom line is that migration to a digital wireless network should begin “TODAY” regardless of the access network that you are operating