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Re-conceiving Business

Rod Oram provokes the

Second Annual Hillary Symposium

Christchurch, June 4th, 2009

© 2009, Rod Oram / Email. oram@clear.net.nz / Phone. +64 21 444 839

Global crises…

…carbon positive opportunities

Agenda

• Crises

• Crux

• Response

• Revolution

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Universe ‘n’ us

• One man’s view :

• Mikhail Zlatkovsky,Russian political cartoonist

Agenda

• Crises

• Crux

• Response

• Revolution

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Agriculture: game over

86%18.017.113.212.39.7Per capita harvest (MJ/day)

158%4.02.72.01.71.5People per harvested hectare

259%6.14.02.52.01.7Population (billion people)

9103%8.45.51.20.40.1Energy subsidy density (GJ/ha)

12700%12.88.01.50.50.1Annual energy subsidies (EJ)

379%26.117.19.67.55.5Annual yield (GJ/ha)

567%40251296Annual harvest (EJ)

39%1.531.461.251.201.10Harvested area (Gha)

Increaseover

thecentury

20001975195019251900Year

Andrew West, AgResearch, NZ - from: Smil, V. (2008) Energy in Nature and Society: general energetics of complex systems,

MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, USA. page 396

New Zealand• We’re #2 in the OECD, measured by greenhouse gases relative to GDP

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Our solution• Less methane would mean healthier, higher yielding animals

• We are leading a global research consortium to reduce methane

• It will generate high value at home, scientific & other revenues overseas

Our opportunity• 1 litre of milk = 940 gm of CO2 equivalent

16,000,000,000 litres = 15,040,000,000 kg of CO2 eq

• 15.04m tonnes of CO2 eq per year is not a waste product, a liability

It is a brilliant business opportunity…

..healthier cows and soil

…more food

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Our “wingprint”• NZ: 7th in the world by departures per 1,000 people per year

We’re stuffed

• The world’s most competitive tourism destinations:

• …says the World Economic Forum

• # 1 : Switzerland

• # 2 : Austria

• #3 : Germany

• #4 : Australia

• ?

• ?

• ?

• ?

• ?

• ?

• ?

• ?

• #19 : New Zealand

• And 2007?

• 15th

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Sustainability is the key factor in competitiveness• The World Economic Forum ranks us lowly

New Zealand

Our opportunity• 1 person, 1 return flight London to Christchurch = 5.5 tonnes of CO2

• (Only approx 30% of our tourisms travel so far…so this is purely illustrative.The carbon footprint of the entire tourism sector will be a very complexcalculation…one we need to make as soon as possible)

2.4m tourists = 13.2m tonnes of CO2

• 13.2m tonnes of CO2 per year is not a waste product, a liability

It is a brilliant business opportunity…

...healthier people

…healthier planet

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Agenda

• Crises

• Crux

• Response

• Revolution

Re-conceiving…business• “A new economic order is rising from the ashes”

• …says John Elkington and colleagues at Volans

• The Phoenix Economy… www.volans.com

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From weathering…to delivering

50 Phoenixcompanies

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5-stage ‘Pathways to scale’

Re-conceiving…footprints• Positive footprints• …the insight of Michael Braungart• www.braungart.com

• If we change our technology so ourresource use benefits the ecosystem

• Then the more we consume……the richer the environment

• Waste = food

• Four positive footprints:• Fabric of Airbus aircraft seats becomes compost for growing food• Formway’s bio-plastic chair• Carbon positive farming• Ants vs. Humans

• Positive role in ecosystem vs.negative…how do we make it positive?

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Re-conceiving…biomimicry• Imitating nature

• …the technology disciplinepioneered by Janine Benyus

• www.biomimicry.net

• Fans, propellers like nautilus shells

• Wire ropes as strong as spider webs…

• …made in cold biochemical processes

Biomimicry in New Zealand

• Synthetic chlorophyll…

• …dyes devised at Massey byWayne Campbell and colleagues

• ‘Green’ solar cells

• Very low energy to make cf silicon solar cells

• Far more versatile…

• E.g. generate power in diffuse, cloudy light

• Potential to be an abundant, natural…boundless source of energy

• E.g. incorporated into windows androofing materials

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Agenda

• Crises

• Crux

• Response

• Revolution

Some provocations• Do we believe our upside is so great?

• …or our downside so dire?

• How can we build grassroots support?

• …so business and government will act?

• What new business models will take us out to the world?

• …and bring the world to us?

• What technology and policies can we pioneer?

• …adapt from elsewhere?

• What is our distinctive contribution to the world?

• …the essence of our ingenuity?

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As Will says…

Hamlet:

“What a piece of work is man,

How noble in reason,

How infinite in faculties,

In form and and moving how express and admirable,

In action how like an angel,

In apprehension how like a god!

The beauty of the world,

The paragon of animals…”

“…and yet, to me, what is this quintessence of dust?

Man delights not me -- nor woman neither.”

If we lose our faith in humankind, we’re doomed

But if we believe our ingenuity is infinite…

…we can start a revolution• Previous one - Economic reform

• 1984 -1994

• Triggered by sudden collapse

• Theory clear - markets rule

• Practice less clear

• Outcomes• Economy more efficient• But we didn’t change our model

• Same commodity exports• Low value, low pay• Became less engaged with world

• Next one - Sustainability reform

• 2007- 2037 (?)

• Triggered by gradual awareness

• Theory very unclear - big new areas

• Practice even less clear

• Outcomes

• Radical change in economy

• Radical change in our model

• Shift from commodities

• High value, higher pay

• Become more engaged with world

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…will be harder, deeper, longer

…more beneficial, more rewarding

…reinventing Paradise

Our next revolution…