Rod Beckstrom cyber security speech at AFCEA 090225

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Speach given by Mr. Rod Beckstrom at AFCEA conference in Washington DC on 25 FEB 2009 on the topic of cyber security

Transcript of Rod Beckstrom cyber security speech at AFCEA 090225

Page 1: Rod Beckstrom cyber security speech at AFCEA 090225
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This presentation is dedicated to the survivors and familiesof 9/11 and other acts of terrorism and violence worldwide.

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9/11 Commission Report“connecting the dots”

DNINCTCDHSNCSC

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GettingOur HeadsAroundCybersecurity

Rod [email protected]

Black Hat

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Black Hat

WIRED

GettingOur HeadsAroundCybersecurity

Rod [email protected]

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Presenter’s Name June 17, 2003

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Getting our heads around cyber

Image source: www.thepromiseofgod.net

Economics

Risk Mgt.

InternetArchitecture

Strategy

Awareness

Dream State

Privacy

Resilience

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Presenter’s Name June 17, 2003

Getting our heads around cyber

Image source: www.thepromiseofgod.net

Awareness(Mapping &Inventory… where am I? )

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Presenter’s Name June 17, 2003

Getting our heads around cyber

Image source: www.thepromiseofgod.net

Dream State(what is the end state we seek?)

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Getting our head around cyber

Image source: www.thepromiseofgod.net

Strategy

What GameAre we Playing?

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The Prisoners Dilemma

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The Prisoners Dilemma

W/W

W/L

L/WW/W

L/L

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Iterated Prisoners Dilemma

W/W

W/L

L/WW/W

L/L

200 X

“The Evolution of Cooperation” Axelrod

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E Pluribus Unum

Collaboration &Social Networking

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Getting our heads around cyber

Image source: www.thepromiseofgod.net

Economics

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Economics of Networks

What is the value of a network?

How much should be spent to defend it?

Fundamental Questions

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Economics of Networks

The value of a network is equal to the summation of the net present value to each user, calculated as the benefit value of all transactions minus the costs, from the standpoint of each user, over any time period.

New Network Valuation Model

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Economics of Networks

NPV = ΣB - ΣC

Where:NPV = net present value of all transactionsB = the benefit value of all transactionsC = the cost of transactions

Value to the Individual

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Book Purchase Example

B = Cost of buying book at store $26

C = Cost of buying online and shipping - 16

NPV = = 10

NPV = ΣB - ΣC

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Economics of Networks

i1

n

NPV (Vi, j ) Bi,k

(1 r)tk

k1

n

Ci,l

(1 r )t l

l1

n

Where: NPV(Vi,j) = net present value of all transactions 1 through n to individual i with respect to network j

j = identifies one network or network system

i = one user of the networkBi,k = the benefit value of transaction k to the individual i

Ci,l = the cost of transaction l to individual i

rk and rl = the discount rate of interest to the time of transaction k or ltk or tl = the elapsed time in years to transaction k or l

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Getting our heads around cyber

Image source: www.thepromiseofgod.net

Economics

Risk Mgt.

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Economics of Security

NPV = ΣB - ΣC

Where:SI = Security InvestmentsL = Losses

Basic Model

NPV = ΣB - ΣC’ - ΣSI - ΣL Security Model

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Economics of Security

Minimize Security Costs = Σ SI + Σ L

The Economic Risk Management Function

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Loss $

Security Investment $

Economics of Security

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Hacker Economics

NPV = ΣB - ΣC’ - ΣSI - ΣL Your Loss

Is the Hacker’s Gain

NPV = ΣB - ΣC’ - ΣSI - ΣL

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Economics of deterrence

NPV = ΣB - ΣC’ - ΣSI - ΣL

Minimize the Hacker’s Gain

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Supply Chain Solution

NPV = ΣB - ΣC’ - ΣSI - ΣL

1) Reward Good GuysPay large fees to Anyone who finds malicious code

NPV = ΣB - ΣC’ - ΣSI - ΣL

2) Punish Bad GuysLevy large fines on companies with bad products

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Presenter’s Name June 17, 2003

Getting our heads around cyber

Image source: www.thepromiseofgod.net

InternetArchitecture

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Loss $

Economics of Protocols

Better Protocols Drive Loss Function Down

Security Investment $

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IPv6, DNS-SEC, BGP-SEC,

SMTP, SMS/IP, POTS …

Protocol Investments

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Getting our heads around cyber

Image source: www.thepromiseofgod.net

Resilience

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Correlation of Losses

Correlations of losses due to IP failure (LIP) are trending towards 1.0

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Getting our heads around cyber

Image source: www.thepromiseofgod.net

Privacy

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Presenter’s Name June 17, 2003

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Presenter’s Name June 17, 2003

Getting our heads around cyber

[email protected]

Economics

Risk Mgt.

NetworkArchitecture

Strategy

Awareness

NetworkedIntelligence

Dream State

Privacy