Rockies Rig Count and Production...
Transcript of Rockies Rig Count and Production...
Rockies Rig Count and Production Update
WPA Public Meeting, February 17, 2009
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Source: Potential Gas Committee, November 2007 2
Source: Potential Gas Committee, November 2007 3
Major areas of Rockies development by commodity and Basin
OilWilliston Basin, ND and MTDJ Basin, CO
Natural GasPowder River Basin, WY (CBM)Green River Basin, WYUintah Basin, UTPiceance Basin, COSan Juan Basin, CO(CBM)
3 to 4.3 Billion Barrels of Technically Recoverable Oil
Assessed in North Dakota and Montana’s Bakken Formation—25 Times More Than 1995 Estimate—
USGS: 4/10/2008 http://energy.usgs.gov/Source: Rig Data 4
Source: Rig Data, WyOGCC, CoOGCC, UTDOG 5
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20
40
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160
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May‐05 Oct‐06 Feb‐08 Jul‐09
Rig Co
unt
Bcfd
Natural Gas Production vs. Average Rig Count per month
COprod
UTprod
WYprod
COx rig
UTx rig
WYx rig
WY 7.1 Bcfd (Nov 08)CO 3.2 Bcfd (Oct 08)UT 1.3 Bcfd (Sep 08)
Note: rig count data accurate through Feb 6, 2009
Source: Rig Data 6
Wyoming Oil And Gas Conservation Commission Report Date 02/12/09
Production For Year 2008 Based On Gas Production
Field Gas Mcf PRB COAL BED 526,782,605PINEDALE 421,739,703JONAH 402,657,185FOGARTY CREEK 154,086,360MADDEN 102,890,557LAKE RIDGE 67,802,092PAINTER RESERVOIR EAST 64,781,469
WC (wild cat, no field assigned) 35,265,921WHITNEY CANYON‐CARTER CREEK
31,952,668
LOST SOLDIER 31,099,434
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Source: WyOGCC 8
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
Jan‐06
Apr‐06
Jul‐0
6
Oct‐06
Jan‐07
Apr‐07
Jul‐0
7
Oct‐07
Jan‐08
Apr‐08
Jul‐0
8
Oct‐08
Bcfd
PRB CBM Production (Nov 08)
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0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
Mon
th/Year
May‐93
Feb‐94
Nov‐94
Aug
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May‐96
Feb‐97
Nov‐97
Aug
‐98
May‐99
Feb‐00
Nov‐00
Aug
‐01
May‐02
Feb‐03
Nov‐03
Aug
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May‐05
Feb‐06
Nov‐06
Aug
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May‐08
Bcfd
Jonah Field (Nov 08)
Source: WyOGCC 10
0.0
0.1
0.2
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0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
Jan‐78
Sep‐79
May‐81
Jan‐83
Sep‐84
May‐86
Jan‐88
Sep‐89
May‐91
Jan‐93
Sep‐94
May‐96
Jan‐98
Sep‐99
May‐01
Jan‐03
Sep‐04
May‐06
Jan‐08
Bcfd
Wamsutter Field (Nov 08)
Wyoming Oil And Gas Conservation Commission Report Date 02/12/09
Production For Year 2008 Top 10 Companies Based On Gas Production
ENCANA OIL AND GAS USA INC
EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION
ULTRA RESOURCES INC
BP AMERICA PRODUCTION COMPANY
WILLIAMS PRODUCTION RMT COMPANY
CHEVRON USA INC
SHELL ROCKY MOUNTAIN PRODUCTION LLC
BURLINGTON RESOURCES OIL & GAS COMPANY L
QUESTAR EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION CO
DEVON ENERGY PRODUCTION COMPANY LP 11
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0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4Apr‐97
Feb‐98
Dec‐98
Oct‐99
Aug
‐00
Jun‐01
Apr‐02
Feb‐03
Dec‐03
Oct‐04
Aug
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Jun‐06
Apr‐07
Feb‐08
Dec‐08
Wildcat Production
Bcfd
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Source: www.seekingalpha.com and individual company websites
Devon (Feb 5, 2009)
• 2008 E&P capital $8.5 billion, 2009e $3.5‐4.1 billion
• 2008 peaked drilling count 112 company wide, 96 by year end, 68 currently, and anticipate down to 32 by end of 1st quarter 2009 “in response to falling product prices”
• Barnett Shale, 2008 drilled 659 wells, 2009e 220‐230 wells
Encana (Feb 12, 2009)• “We're taking a measured
approach to our 2009 program . . . identifying discretionary spending . . . applying additional scrutiny to projects planned but not yet started . . . until we're comfortable with our financial expectations for 2010, we will not be making any bold moves.”
• CBM [Canada] 700 in 2008 and plan about 425 in 2009
• Shallow gas. 1200 in 2008 and plan 700 in 2009
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Source: Ultra Petroleum, Feb 5, 2009 14
Questar (February 12, 2009)
• Decreasing 2009 capital spending to $1.3 billion (down 50% from 2008)
• E&P $841 million (down $200+ million since 3rd Qtr report)
• fewer wells in 2009, since September ½ rigs – 19 current rigs as opposed to the peak of 42 in 3rd Qtr 2008
• Suspended oil‐directed drilling in the Uinta Basin – formerly proposed to drill 15 horizontal Green River wells in 2009
• “Bakken play is not economic at current oil prices and well costs” and deferring development until 2nd half 2009
• Postponed open season plans for RAP until “market conditions improve”
• “we believe that the Pinedale Anticline is the only major play in the Rockies that’s economic at current prices”
Anadarko (Feb 3 and 11, 2009)
• . . . there’s stipulations in the Rockies particularly where those wells, those rigs can only work during the winter months and as we approach the spring we start dropping those rigs down. Through the fourth quarter we had about 68 on average and we’re running now around 40
• Bison and Ruby are major pipeline commitments that assist Anadarko’s decision to maintain a Rockies presence
• 2008 CAPEX on E&P $4.8 billion, 2009e 20% of $4‐4.5 billion (total capital expenditures)
15Source: www.seekingalpha.com and individual company websites