1

Robocars & Robotaxis, Steve RaneyUtopia or Dystopia?

• Minority: central override

• Total Recall: interior, Siri– Johnny Cab

• WALL-E atrophy.

Robocars & Robotaxis

GM EN-V, 1:00-3:40, youtube

– Connected Car / V2V

Google Robotaxi, 15-61s, youtube

– Empty movement, smartphone.

Talk Outline

• Expectations

– Provide a feel for design and planning issues

– Many conclusions & predictions exist (wrong)

– Fertile field for research

• Agenda

– Quick: Industry status

– Quick: Regulation

– How it works & what is difficult

– Markets & impacts.

Industry status• 2014: safer, more pleasant hands/feet-free freeway driving

– Lane keeping + traffic jam assist. Advanced Driver Assistance System (ADAS)

– Detect driver alertness / ability to take control

• Versus robo: robot is responsible for your safety. Freeway + surface.

Who ADAS Robo: LIDAR? Robo: When?

Google Yes, 300K mi 2016-2018

BMW Yes, 20K mi 2020

Nissan ? 2020

Mercedes 2014 Concept projects

Toyota Yes

VW/Audi Demo, “by 2019” Academic: Stanford

GM Super Cruise, 2015 EN-V: V2V, academic 2020

Ford 2017-2025

Volvo 2014

Continental Yes Radars, 10K mi

Regulation vs. Invisible Hand

• CA SB 1928

How it works – LIDAR-centric, no V2V

2

Taking a ride in the Google robocar

• You are in the back seat

• Safety driver in driver seat

– Can switch from robot to human/manual driving

• Big red button in-between seats

• Engineer rides shotgun with laptop

– Watches objects being perceived

– Adds notes

• Can later analyze sensor data stream for debugging.

How it works: 3 key tasks

• 1) Know precise location (“localization”)

– Pattern match pre-mapped sensor data stream

• 2) Detect hazards

– Form object trajectory hypotheses

– Identify & avoid danger

• 3) Path planning

• Racing example, 24-49s, youtube

What’s hard about human driving? � Use cases

• Robotaxi product solution? Route, I2V.

Difficult human driving

• Bikes: fast & random

• Erratic drivers

• SF hills

• Surface St. vs. freeway.

Difficult human driving Add robot driving difficulties• Maneuvers that depend on eye contact

– Traffic cops?

– Traffic cop solution? Manual, control room, read gestures

• Reading human intentions (or lack thereof)

– How could robot communicate intentions?

3

Steve Shladover’s Cautionary Insights

• UC PATH expert

• Human errors can be eliminated, but

• Cascading system dependencies introduce new vulnerabilities

• 1.16 fatalities every 100M miles driven �

– prove robocars are safer

• LIDAR system reaction slower than V2V

• Driving skills atrophy, but still needed

• TIME CHECK: 20 min.

For-Sale Robocar Markets

• Commuters

– Which commuters?

– Desired feature set? Office, motion, Siri, sleep

• “Time went fast”

• Enter work relaxed with more energy

– 5 second rule (text, distracted), 90%+

• Holiday travel

– Which travelers?

– Features? Drink, sleep, family-friendly interior.

For-Sale Robocar Impacts• Reduce (not eliminate) 32K US auto fatalities per year

– More safe � reduce car weight � increase MPG

• Given critical mass or dedicated lanes– Smoother driving � higher fuel economy

– Traffic ripples & accidents, closer following � less congestion

• Mobility: sight-impaired, seniors, kids

• Valet parking: popular � more driving

• Reduced friction/hassle during peak hour – More congestion, longer commutes OK � more driving (VMT)

• Social equity– Stratified society: superstar from Tahoe

– Driving-while-poor � less safe.

For-Sale Robocar

• Assisted (ADAS) - $3K+ add-on?

– Super Cruise + traffic jam assist

• Robocar - $10K add-on?

– Sensors are currently expensive

– Willingness to pay?.

Robotaxi “Taxi” Market• Uber, SideCar, Lyft: smartphone taxi-like

– Drivers make money on a “shift”

– Disfunctional urban taxi markets: SF, Seattle• Friendly, fast, reliable service

• Surge pricing at 1AM on Saturday from clubs/bars

– SideCar’s Sunil Paul: “can’t wait”

• Taxis (resistant)

– NYC: 3 trips/hr, 2.8 mi, 1.4 pax, 39% empty mi

• Labor cost-savings (jobs), efficient dispatch

• In-vehicle local-context content.

“ZipCar that drives to you” Market

• Converges to “robotaxi taxi” market

• Why not robo peer-to-peer?

– Commute, then your car makes you money

• Carshare services have to acquire parking spaces

• Higher fleet utilization

• Handle late returns

• Easier access to car variety.

4

Urban Robo-taxi/ZipCar Impacts

• 1 carshare car takes 9-13 cars off road

– 43% GHG reduction

– VMT down 45%, transit use up

– Fewer new cars � 8 tons CO2 mfg

• Smaller annual auto revenue

– Free parking spaces for higher use

– Smallest car for the job � MPG

• Better mobility for low-income / transit-dependent folks?

– Who subsidizes? .

Suburban Robotaxi• 2 car family � 1 car + robotaxi + ZipCar + transit

pass + bike + walk + smartphone + borrow-a-car

• “Sparse” is bad – 6.7M Bay Area residents & 100 robotaxis (100K taxis!)

– “Orphaned” trips are bad

• Small, bounded area with critical mass – Redwood City: Caltrain, downtown, Dreamworks + Kaiser

– NYC-like short trips: • “live and work in Redwood City”

• Caltrain in or out-commuter

• Non-workers, students

• Capacity drops during peak hour

• A cost-of-driving rise will accelerate mobility services.

Robotaxi User Experience (UX)

• Rendezvous: busy street, parallel parking with bike lane, driveways, fire hydrants

– Human taxi drivers excel. Double park

– Robots? 3 simultaneous rendz in the rain at night?

• Life without a trunk that follows you around

– Sports / hobby gear

• “Google Now” smartphone anticipation

– Snoops your calendar. Knows your routine

– “Prod me from desk to robotaxi to train”

– Start & end address. Payment.

Robotaxi Economics(last slide)

• SF taxi rates

• City Car Share: $10/mo

– in urban envt w/ transit

• Audacious: compete w/ private cars (suburb)

– Private car: “all-in cost:” $0.55 per mile

• ?Willing to pay $0.75/mile for robotaxi?

– Pricing design? Consumers clueless re cost/mi

• “lumpy” payments.

Thank You Redwood City

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Tri

ps

pe

r h

ou

r

Hour of the Day

Redwood City bounded worker's bounded trips

5

PRT vs. robotaxi for last mile

• PRT: self-driving, elevated transit, 4-person pods

• Robotaxi: no expensive elevated road

– But, during peak hour traffic, capacity degrades

– Could add elevated road if needed (“dual mode robotaxi”)

• Or dedicated at-grade lanes

• Last mile � increases transit & carpool commutes

• Robotaxi engineering

– PRT is an “easier” subset.

UCB robo-hero: Anthony LevandowskiMS/BS IE/OR, MBA, Google

• Self-driving motorcycle now in Smithsonian

• Pribot, 2008

References for Further Exploration

• “Obstacle Detection and Tracking for the Urban Challenge”

• “Boss and the Urban Challenge”

• “Junior: The Stanford Entry in the Urban Challenge”

• KPMG: “Self-driving cars: The next revolution”

• Robocars.com

• Udacity course #373: “Program a robocar in 7 weeks”

• Stanford ME302 “Future of the Car” class web

• Google robocar youtube, 17 min (search “vmWorld Urmson”)

• Three youtube videos in this PPT:• http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=0tiHwzGsotA

• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rOWhu_aa9kM

• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t9Fxp3HK6DI