Robin Lynch Hydrology April 29,2010. Tlamacazapa, Guerrero Remote mountain village Extreme poverty...
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Transcript of Robin Lynch Hydrology April 29,2010. Tlamacazapa, Guerrero Remote mountain village Extreme poverty...
![Page 1: Robin Lynch Hydrology April 29,2010. Tlamacazapa, Guerrero Remote mountain village Extreme poverty Water scarcity Reliant on wells contaminated with arsenic.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649e155503460f94afe90c/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Drought Frequency Analysis in Tlamacazapa, Guerrero, Mexico
Robin LynchHydrology
April 29,2010
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Tlamacazapa, Guerrero
Remote mountain village
Extreme poverty
Water scarcityReliant on
wells contaminated with arsenic
Source: Google Maps
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Previous Work
Concluded:Year round
piped water possible…but
Needs 10 meter high dam downstream
Source: Google Earth
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Assumptions:Only used average rainfall between
2003-2007 Doesn’t take into account long term
variability!
0
50
100
150
200
250
Avera
ge R
ain
fall
(m
m/m
onth
)
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Drought Frequency AnalysisDetermine how impacted Tlamcazapa is by
droughtsUse SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index)
Assumes data is normally distributed
Source: (Hallack-Algeria 2005)
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Instituto Mexicano de Technologia del Agua (IMTA)16 gaging stationsWithin 25 kilometer radius of TlamaRainfall data between 1940-1998Inconsistent years in each station
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First station
Source:(McKee et al. 1993)
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Second Station
Whoa!!!
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Theissen PolygonsCannot take average of SPI per yearEach gage’s SPI thrown off due to
incomplete time spanMust use Theissen Polygons to
choose Nearest NeighborFor years when closest gage has no
data, use nearest neighbor “hot decking” imputation procedure
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60+ years of Data!Data from 1940-2007 (1944,1946,1999-2002 missing)
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Check for Normality
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…It’s Kinda Normal
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SPI Values for Tlama: 1940-2007
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HEC-SSP Only looks at probability of
exceedence
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Probability Distribution Function
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Drought Magnitude
1940
1942
1945
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2004
2006
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
Drought Magnitude
Dro
ught
Magnit
ude (
Sum
of
SP
I)
Source: (McKee et al. 1993)
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Recurrence Probability
P(SPI<0) = 0.5P(SPI<-1)= 0.15P(SPI<-1.5)= 0.1
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Drought Frequency of Tlama
Single Year 2 Cons. Years 3 Cons. YearsMild Drought 2 4 8
Moderate Drought 7 44 296Severe Drought 10 100 1000
Extreme Drought 20 400 8000
Return Period
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Future WorkStatistical regression to see the
relationship between drought and arsenic levels
Make recommendations for reservoir planning using this drought frequency analysis