Roberto Pitea Regional Research Officer for Africa and the Middle East
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Transcript of Roberto Pitea Regional Research Officer for Africa and the Middle East
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Roberto PiteaRegional Research Officer for Africa and the Middle East
International Organization for Migration (IOM), Cairo
Cairo, 20 – 21 September 2010
Demographic change and human mobility in the Arab region
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Overview
1) Introduction
2) Current human mobility trends
3) Future demographic trends
4) Future urbanization trends
5) Key challenges and opportunities
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Current mobility trends
• The Arab region is both origin, destination and transit region for different categories of migrants and mobile populations
• The UN estimates a total of 28.6 million migrants in the Arab region in 2010 (UNPD, 2009). Over half of them (15.1 million) are living in countries of the GCC.
• Forced migration contributes to human mobility in the Arab region, which hosts 4.7 million Palestinian refugees and an estimated 2 million Iraqi refugees (IOM, 2010).
• However, labour migration remains the major driver of mobility in the region.
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Current mobility trends
• Income and development differentials are the main drivers behind the mobility of workers in the region:
– The average GDP per capita in Arab countries is 8,200 USD, ranging from almost 75,000 USD in Qatar to 2,090 USD in Yemen (UNDP, 2009).
– The average GDP per capita in South Asia (major region of origin of migrants in the Arab region) is 2,905 USD
– Average GDP per capita in Europe (major region of destination for Arab migrants) is 24,775 USD
– The unemployment rate in the region has reached 14.2 per cent in 2009, among the highest in the world (global average is 6%).
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Current mobility trends
-1,000,0002,000,0003,000,0004,000,0005,000,0006,000,0007,000,000
Total Migrants from Mashreqand Yemen
Total Migrants from Maghreb
Arab countries Europe Americas
Oceania Asia Sub-Saharan Africa
Arab migrants according to regions of destination.
Source: DRC (2007)
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Current mobility trends
Remittance trends: outflows and inflows
Source: World Bank in IOM (2010)
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Arab Population in 2050 : 556 million
Youth (0 -24) in 2050 : 200 million (36%)
Arab Population in 2010 : 336 million
Demographic Scenario
Youth (15-24) in 2050 : 80 million (14%)
Youth (0 -24) in 2010 : 178 million (53%)
Youth (15-24) in 2010 : 67 million (20%)
Source: UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (Population Division). World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision
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Dempographic scenario
• On average, an additional 325,000 people will enter the 15-24 age group every year between now and 2050;
• But, most Arab countries will see sharp drops in the growth rate of younger groups;
• Doubling young labour forces (Iraq, OPT and Yemen);
• Faster transition to an aging labour force (Algeria, Lebanon, and Tunisia);
• Destination countries will face labour force reductions (except Libya, Oman and Saudi Arabia).
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Demographic ScenarioYouth (15-24 years old) as a percentage of total population
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
22.0%
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
North Africa Mashreq
Gulf countries More Developed regions
Demographic window of opportunity
Source: UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (Population Division). World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision
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Demographic scenario
Total Dependency ratios* in 2010
Total Dependency ratios in 2050
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Average
* Number of children below 15 and people older than 65 for every 100 adults
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UAE
90
West Bank and Gaza
48
OECD
71
OECD
60
Tunisia
52
Average
48
QatarKSA
Source: UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (Population Division). World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision
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27
33
Tunisia
Demographic scenario
Dependency ratios* in 2010
Dependency ratios in 2050
Child DR:Number of children below 15 for every 100 adultsOld Age DR: Number of people over 65 for every 100 adults
22
2
UAE
85
6
OPT
24
23
OECD
26
45
OECD
29
19
KSA
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Key implications
• High proportion of youth (youth bulge) :– Ensuring education for all means falling quality
of education and/or higher government spending;
– Labour markets cannot generate enough job opportunities to absorb unemployed workers and new entrants.
• Decline in (child) dependency ratios :– Demographic window of opportunity can
accelerate development outcomes and processes
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Key challenges
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
Morocco Oman UAE Djibouti Kuwait Lebanon Mauritani a Tunis ia
Total publicexpenditure oneducation (as a% of GDP)
Total publicexpenditure oneducation (as a% of totalgovernmentexpenditure)
Source: IOM (2010) based on UNESCO (2006)
Public expenditure on education in select Arab countries
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Key challenges
Source: IOM (2010) based on ILO (2007)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Maghreb Mashreq GCC
PrimaryEducation -MalePrimaryEducation -FemaleSecondaryEducation -MaleSecondaryEducation -FemaleTertiaryEducation -MaleTertiaryEducation -Female
Youth unemployment by level of education and gender.
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Arab Population in 2050 : 556 million
Urban population in 2050 : 413 million (74%)
Arab Population in 2010 : 336 million
Urbanization Scenario
Urban population in 2010 : 191 million (57%)
Source: UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (Population Division). World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Revision, http://esa.un.org/
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Urbanization scenario
• In 1950, only 25 % of the total population in Arab countries lived in cities
• This percentage has increased to 57 % in 2010 and is estimated to reach 74% in 2050
• The fastest increase in urban population between 2010 – 2050 will take place in less developed Arab countries
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Urbanization Scenario(urban population, in ml and as percentage of total population)
Source: UN DESA –Population Division (2007)
2010 7.8
32 %
205034.9 60%
Yemen
Million%
2010 18.745 %
205032.0 74%
Sudan2010 34.043%
205075.662%
Egypt2010 18.457%
205032.075%
Morocco2010 11.755%
205025.874%
Syria
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Key implications
• Demographic and environmental factors compound to create complex socio-economic vulnerabilities
– Declining investment/Loss of productivity of agricultural sector
• Rapid increase in urban population:– Strain on resources and services – Rapid growth of informal urban settlements
(slum areas)– Increase demand for natural resources (food,
fuel, construction material…)
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Key challenges and opportunities
Current push factors• Unemployment and underemployment
especially of youth• Conflict and instability
Future additional push factorsSocio-economic• Accelerating urbanization• Demographic transition Environmental*• Intensification of natural disasters• Increased warming and drought affects
agricultural production and access to water
• Rising sea levels makes coastal areas uninhabitable
• Competition over natural resources may lead to conflict and in turn displacement
Current pull factors• Income and development differentials• Education and employment
opportunities• Security
Future additional pull factorsSocio-economic• Demographic transition (ageing) in
countries of destination
Environmental• Access to sustainable forms of
livelihoods
*Adapted from IOM (2009) Migration, Environment and Climate Change: Assessing the Evidence
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Key challenges and opportunities
• The Arab region will undergo significant demographic changes in the next decades
• These changes will have an impact on socio-economic development and, in turn, human mobility.
• Environmental factors will compound to these changes, resulting in more complex mobility dynamics.
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Thank you