Robert W. Meins Remittances Specialist, Multilateral Investment Fund (MIF) Inter-American...
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Transcript of Robert W. Meins Remittances Specialist, Multilateral Investment Fund (MIF) Inter-American...
Robert W. MeinsRemittances Specialist, Multilateral Investment Fund (MIF)Inter-American Development Bank (IDB)
2007: $ 66.52007: $ 66.52008: $ 67.5 2008: $ 67.5 (est.)(est.)
+ 1.5 %+ 1.5 %
2007: $ 66.52007: $ 66.52008: $ 67.5 2008: $ 67.5 (est.)(est.)
+ 1.5 %+ 1.5 %
1) Economic situation
2) Immigration climate
3) Exchange rates
4) Inflation
Source: US Census (CPS)
Source: US Census (CPS)
Source: World Bank
Source: New York Times
Source: European Central Bank
Period of rise in remittances from EuropeRapid appreciation of the dollar
Source: Orozco 2007
Source: Orozco 2007
• Remittance data continues to improve, but is not yet perfect
• Remittances are a family obligation, not driven by profit motives
• LAC remittances likely to rise +/- 1.5 % in nominal terms• Crisis-related dollar appreciation will increase remittances
in local currency terms in countries with free floating currencies.
• $67.5 billion will be received by Latin American families in 2008.
• 80% spent on consumption 20% on savings and investment.
• Remittance receipts remain a largely unused source of liquidity
Economic situation: Further economic slowdown affecting industries important to migrant workers
Migration climate: Negative immigration climate in broader range of sending countries. Continuing rise in Hispanic unemployment.
Exchange rates: Depreciation of the Euro
Inflation: Sustained rise in food/fuel costs
• Remittances have been and will continue to be relatively stable financial flows
• Relative importance of intraregional remittances likely to increase.
• Once the global economy begins to recover, so will remittance growth
Robert W. MeinsRobert W. MeinsRemittances Specialist+1 (202) 623 [email protected]