Robert Thieler USGS Research Geologist. America’s Coastal Crisis coastal population and...
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Transcript of Robert Thieler USGS Research Geologist. America’s Coastal Crisis coastal population and...
Robert ThielerUSGS Research Geologist
America’s Coastal Crisis coastal America’s Coastal Crisis coastal population population and development are increasingly and development are increasingly vulnerable vulnerable to coastal hazardsto coastal hazards
(modified after Bindoff, 2007; Rahmstorf, 2007)
Past, Current and Projected Sea-level RisePast, Current and Projected Sea-level Rise
Time Scales Time Scales of Coastal of Coastal ChangeChange
Short-term Variance(hours to decade)
Storm impact/recoveryAnnual cycles
El Niño
Long-term Trend(decades to centuries)
Sediment deficit or surplusSea-level rise
Coastal Vulnerability to Sea-level Rise:Coastal Vulnerability to Sea-level Rise:A Preliminary National AssessmentA Preliminary National Assessment
Vulnerability Ranking
Coastal Vulnerability StudiesCoastal Vulnerability Studiesin the National Parksin the National Parks
Study sites in the Contiguous U.S.Study sites in the Contiguous U.S. Study sites in Hawaii, Alaska, Study sites in Hawaii, Alaska, and U.S. Territoriesand U.S. Territories
Cape Cod NSFire Island NSGateway NRAGulf Islands NSCape Hatteras NS
Cumberland Island NSAssateague Island NSDry Tortugas NPPadre Island NSChannel Islands NP
Golden Gate NRAPoint Reyes NSOlympic NPApostle Islands NLIndiana Dunes NL
Sleeping Bear Dunes NLKenai Fjord NPGlacier Bay NPPKaloko-Honokohau NHPNP of American SamoaVirgin Islands NPWar in the Pacific NHP
Assessments Assessments Help ManagersHelp ManagersPlan For HazardsPlan For Hazards
Norwegian Memorial
Cape Alava
Sand Point
0 30 60 90 12015Kilometers
Eastern North Carolina
Elevation source: 30-m DEM Elevation source: 3-m lidar data
Dark blue: Land ≤ 1 meter in elevation
Light blue: Area of uncertainty associated with 1 meter elevation
Wetland Vertical Development
Mineral sediment deposition
Plant matter accumulation - soil (root production/decomposition)
Compaction
Shrink-Swell
Coastal Wetlands RespondCoastal Wetlands RespondDynamically to Environmental ChangeDynamically to Environmental Change
R. Carlson
D. Cahoon
D. Cahoon
Mid-Atlantic Assessment of PotentialMid-Atlantic Assessment of PotentialDynamic Coastal Responses to Sea-level RiseDynamic Coastal Responses to Sea-level Rise
Bluff erosion
Overwash
Island Breaching
Threshold Crossing(Gutierrez et al., 2007)
Cape Lookout
CapeHatteras
Oregon Inlet
(NASA photo)
USGS North Carolina Coastal Geology USGS North Carolina Coastal Geology Cooperative ProgramCooperative Program
A regional, multi-collaborator effort toA regional, multi-collaborator effort to
understand and predict coastal change understand and predict coastal change
and hazardsand hazards
Coastal Erosion Hotspots and Geology are RelatedCoastal Erosion Hotspots and Geology are Related
Paleo-Roanoke River ChannelPasses Under Kitty Hawk
Kitty Hawk Bay
USGS and Partner Science to Provide USGS and Partner Science to Provide Decision SupportDecision Support