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Robert Bosch of Diesel Systems 07-25-13 TN-71711.pdf
Transcript of Robert Bosch of Diesel Systems 07-25-13 TN-71711.pdf
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Energy - Docket Optical System
From: Tom Fulks [[email protected]]Sent: Thursday, July 25, 2013 1:21 PMTo: Energy - Docket Optical SystemCc: Olson, Tim@EnergySubject: Docket No. 13-IEP-1L -- Transportation Energy ScenariosAttachments: Bosch - 20130617_CP_CaliforniaEnergy Commission_dd2015.pdf
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To the California Energy Commission,
Attached please find a presentation prepared by Robert Bosch Diesel Systems that was delivered to your IEPR staff on June 19, 2013, at your offices in Sacramento.
We were asked to submit this document to the CEC docket in preparation for the July 31, 2013, Joint Lead Commissioner Workshop on Transportation Energy Scenarios, and are happy to do so now.
The presentation may be useful to the CEC in that it covers the known new model rollout scenarios of light-duty diesel vehicles in the U.S. market through 2015. Given that light-duty diesel vehicles have a fuel economy performance of up to 35 percent higher than comparable gasoline vehicles, this diesel market penetration will directly affect the fuel use modeling being conducted now by your staff. If bio-based diesel fuels are factored in, then the modeling will be affected that much more.
This presentation was prepared by Andreas Sambel, Director of Marketing & Business Excellence, Bosch Diesel Systems North America. If you have any questions of Mr. Sambel about this presentation, please contact me and I will put you in touch.
Very warm regards,
Tom Fulks
Mightycomm
916.508.3837
DOCKETEDCalifornia Energy Commission
JUL 25 2013
TN 71711
13-IEP-1L
California Energy Commission, June 19th 2013
Andreas SambelDirector Marketing &
DS/MKL1-NA | 6/17/2013 | © 2013 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.
Diesel Systems
Business Excellence Diesel Systems North America
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Powertrain diversification for Today and the FutureCalifornia Energy Commission, June 19th 2013
Powertrain diversification for Today and the Future gasoline
EV /range extender
EV (b tt /dieselgasoline
gasoline
diesel
Bi- fuel
EV / fuel cell
EV / battery EV (battery /fuel cell)
alternative fuelsdiesel alternativefuels
hybridhybrid
EV /range extender
1997 2010 2015
range extender
?Variety of Technical solution needed to address individual mobility needs
Diesel Systems
Long term convergence towards electrification
DS/ENS-NA | 6/17/2013 | © 2013 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.2
California Energy Commission, June 19th 2013
≤2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015≤
Diesel Systems
≤2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015≤
DS/MKL-NA | 6/17/2013 | © 2013 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.3
California Energy Commission, June 19th 2013
U.S. Current Clean Diesel Models Available clean diesel models by 2012 = 20U.S. Current Clean Diesel Models
≤2009 2010 2011 2012
Audi A3 (2.0L)
MB E 350 (3 0L)
MB S 350 (3.0L)
2012 = 20
MB E 350 (3.0L)
VW Golf (2.0L)
VW Jetta (2.0L)
VW Jetta Sportwagen (2.0L)
Audi Q7 (3.0L)
VW Passat (2.0L)
VW Beetle (2.0L)
Audi Q7 (3.0L)
BMW X5 (3.0L)
MB GL 350 (3.0L)
MB ML 350 (3.0L)
VW Touareg (3.0L)
Ch l t Sil d HD (6 6L)
Porsche Cayenne (3.0L)
Chevrolet Silverado HD (6.6L)Ford F Series Superduty (6.7L)
GMC Sierra HD (6.6L)
MB Sprinter (3.0L)
Ram HD (6.7L)
GM Vans (6.6L)
Notes• Discontinued models (i.e. BMW 335d/MB R 350) removed.• Launch time frame determined by first diesel launch not current diesel engine.• There were no new clean diesel models launched in 2010
DS/MKL1-NA | 6/17/2013 | © 2013 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.
Diesel Systems
• There were no new clean diesel models launched in 2010.
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California Energy Commission, June 19th 2013
U.S. Clean Diesel Vehicle Launch CalendarU.S. Clean Diesel Vehicle Launch Calendar2013 2014 2015 2016≤
Audi A6 (3.0L)
Audi A7 (3.0L)
Audi A8 (3 0L)Audi A8 (3.0L)
Chevrolet Cruze (2.0L)
BMW 3 Series (2.0L)
BMW 5 Series (3.0L)
BMW 3 Series Wagon (2.0L)
Chevrolet Cruze (2.0L)
Mazda 6 (2.2L)
MB E250 (2.2L)
VW Beetle Conv. (2.0L)
Audi Q5 (3.0L)
Jeep Grand Cherokee (3.0L)
MB GLK 250 (2.2L)
MB ML 250 (2.2L)
Ford Transit (3.2L)
Ram 1500 (3.0L)
Ram ProMaster (3.0L)
Currently Available Clean Diesel Models= 24
New Vehicle Launches by 2018= 38
DS/MKL1-NA | 6/17/2013 | © 2013 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.
Diesel Systems
Announced by OEM = Not Announced by OEMAvailable at Dealer
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North American Light Vehicle ProductionCalifornia Energy Commission, June 19th 2013
17 5 17.9 18.320
Diesel Gasoline Flex-Fuel Hybrid Electric Others Total NAM
Diesel share in %
North American Light Vehicle Production
15.0 15.4
17.5
15
[M]
10
Volu
mes
0
5
10 %
2012 2013 2016 2018 2020
l l d h k f b f
CAGRDiesel: 8%, Gas: 2%, Market: 3%
Diesel Systems
Clean Diesel expected to reach a market penetration of 10% by 2018 timeframe
DS/MKL-NA | 6/17/2013 | © 2013 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.6
California Energy Commission, June 19th 2013
NAFTA Clean Diesel RegistrationsNAFTA Clean Diesel Registrations
459,066500,000
US Canada
63,042
67,870
326,001
403,288
350,000
400,000
450,000
391 196
54,086
200,000
250,000
300,000
271,915
340,246
391,196
100,000
150,000
,
Note: NAFTA total (class 1 3) registrations excludes Mexico due to unavailability of data
0
50,000
2010 2011 2012
DS/MKL1-NA | 6/17/2013 | © 2013 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.
Diesel Systems
Note: NAFTA total (class 1-3) registrations excludes Mexico due to unavailability of data.* 2013 CYTD includes Jan through Mar 2013 registrations.
Source: Polk
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US: Diesel vs. Gasoline Price Delta IndexCalifornia Energy Commission, June 19th 2013
25%$5 00
US: Diesel vs. Gasoline Price Delta IndexU.S. National Averages: Week of 6/03/2013
Diesel Price $3.85 Gas Price $3.72 Price ∆ ($) $0.13 Price ∆ (%) 3.4%
15%
20%
25%
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
$5.00
5%
10%
15%
$1 50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
-5%
0%
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
Gasoline Diesel % Difference Diesel Trendline % Difference Trendline
DS/MKL1-NA | 6/17/2013 | © 2013 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.8Diesel Systems
Sources: U.S. EIA
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California Energy Commission, June 19th 2013
Consumer Confidence Index
40%
Consumers Considering Diesel
Consumer Confidence Index
28%30%
32% 32% 33% 34% 34%
30%
13%14%
17%20%
23%
20%
0%
10%
0%
DS/MKL1-NA | 6/17/2013 | © 2013 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.
Diesel Systems
Source: CNW ResearchNote: Share of 10,000 new vehicle intenders that would consider purchasing a diesel
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California Energy Commission, June 19th 2013
US Clean Diesel Take Rates: PCUS Clean Diesel Take Rates: PC
100%100
Audi A3 Audi A8 Mercedes E-Class MercedesS-Class VW BeetleVW Golf VW Jetta VW Jetta Sportwagen VW Passat Average Take Rate
29%
70%
80%
90%
70
80
90
gist
ratio
n [K
pcs]
Monthly C
le
32%
75
9240%
50%
60%
40
50
60
n D
iese
l PC
Reg
an Diesel Take
27%
35%
4353
75
10%
20%
30%
10
20
30
Ann
ual C
lean
Rates
0%
10%
0
10
DS/MKL1-NA | 6/17/2013 | © 2013 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.
Diesel Systems
Source: PolkNote: Annual average diesel take rate
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California Energy Commission, June 19th 2013
US Clean Diesel Take Rates: SUVUS Clean Diesel Take Rates: SUV
60%35
Audi Q7 BMW X5 MB GL-Class MB M-Class Porsche Cayenne VW Touareg Average
26%
40%
50%
25
30
27%
istra
tion
[Kpc
s]M
onthly Cle
25
3220%
30%
15
20
20%
25%
Die
sel P
C R
egi ean D
iesel Take
14
19
25
0%
10%
5
10
Ann
ual C
lean
e Rates
-10%0
DS/MKL1-NA | 6/17/2013 | © 2013 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.
Diesel Systems
Source: PolkNote: Annual average diesel take rate
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California Energy Commission, June 19th 2013
US Clean Diesel Take Rates: PUUS Clean Diesel Take Rates: PU
100%300
Chevy Silverado 2500 Chevy Silverado 3500 Ford F-250GMC Sierra 2500 GMC Sierra 3500 Ram 2500Ram 3500 Average
70%
80%
90%
200
250
60%
62%
62%
gist
ratio
n [K
pcs]
Monthly
217247 40%
50%
60%
15060%
60%
n D
iese
l PC
Reg
Clean D
iesel Ta
137
184217
10%
20%
30%
50
100
Ann
ual C
lean
ake Rates
0%
10%
0
DS/MKL1-NA | 6/17/2013 | © 2013 Robert Bosch LLC and affiliates. All rights reserved.
Diesel Systems
Source: PolkNote: Annual average diesel take rate
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