Call 2012: Road owners adapting to climate change

Roads for today, adapted for tomorrow

Thomas Bles Deltares, the Netherlands

ERA NET ROAD (European network of road authorities) Road owners getting to grips with climate change - 2008 Basically road owners and operators need answers on the following questions: Is climate change really affecting roads? How and where will/is climate change affecting roads? How likely is it to happen? If it does happen, what are the consequences? What should be done to mitigate the risks? Now or in the future?

Objective A common ERA-NET ROAD method for risk analysis and risk

management with regard to climate change Based upon, or at least compatible with, general existing methods A method that enables decision support for adaptation Measures Strategies

Main functions of the RIMAROCC method: identify risk factors (climate factors, infrastructure intrinsic

factors, contextual site factors) define the level of acceptable risks prioritize roads and structures according to the risks estimate effects of mitigation efforts/measures (through cost –

benefit analysis) prioritize mitigation efforts/measures

An ERA-NET ROAD framework for risk analysis and risk management with regard to climate change using ISO 31000 on risk management

RIMAROCC consortium: SGI (coordinator), NGI, Egis and Deltares

Feedback loop

3. Risk

analysis

4. Risk

evaluation

5. Risk

mitigation

6. Imple-

mentationof plans__

2. Risk

identification

7. Moni-

toring, review

1. Context analysis

Communication

Applied in four case studies at different scales Stretch Section Network Region

RIMAROCC provides methodological guidance However Method enables different interpretations Which is also good and was also the purpose

No explicit guidance on assessments themselves

Available via www.cedr.fr

Overview of adaptation measures and guideline on choosing a strategy

Guideline on performing a

socio economic impact analysis

Guideline on performing a

GIS-aided vulnerability assessment

Guideline on the use of data for the current and future climate

Cause Effect Consequence

Risk mitigation

Risk Evaluation

Guideline on performing a quickscan (preliminary climate change risk assessment)

Integrated with RIMAROCC

framework

ROADAPT Roads for today, adapted for tomorrow

Feedback loop

3. Risk

analysis

4. Risk

evaluation

5. Risk

mitigation

6. Imple-

mentationof plans__

2. Risk

identification

7. Moni-

toring, review

1. Context analysis

Communication

Overview of adaptation measures and guideline on choosing a strategy

Guideline on performing a

socio economic impact analysis

Guideline on performing a

GIS-aided vulnerability assessment

Guideline on the use of data for the current and future climate

Cause Effect Consequence

Risk mitigation

Risk Evaluation

Guideline on performing a quickscan (preliminary climate change risk assessment)

Integrated with RIMAROCC

framework

ROADAPT Roads for today, adapted for tomorrow

2013, September 9

Threats

Flooding of road surface (assuming no traffic is possible) Sub threat: flooding due to failure of flood defence system of rivers and canals, caused by snowmelt, rainfall in the catchment area, extreme wind

Climate information

Climate parameters with corresponding unit and time resolution: • Temperature

• number of days with average temperature above 0 ˚C

• days • Extreme rainfall events

(long periods of rain in the catchment area)

• mm/day • several days - week

• Extreme wind speed, wind direction

• m/second • hours - days

Vulnerability factors

• Infrastructure

intrinsic factors

• Road surface level

• Contextual site factors

• rivers • canals • low lying

areas

Impact

• Duration of

the threat when it has occurred until resume of normal operation

• weeks - months

• Available

time between realizing that threat might happen and threat occurring

• minutes - days

Specification of users’ requirements Overview of relevant climate information for road owners

Most recent results (e.g. CORDEX) + (sites for) background information Uncertainties and the action perspectives per type Overview of available data sources, climate scenarios, existing methods for the

current and future climate Guidebook on the use of climate data for the current and future

climate. E.g.: What to do in the case of missing data, inhomogeneities,

inconsistencies between countries Pro’s and con’s of methods to generate time series for

the future How to use a reference period?

Collaboration with CLiPDaR project

• Development of a preliminary method for risk assessment • Making use of the RIMAROCC steps • Insight in spots on TEN-T network with high risk potential

• Probability both now and in future • Consequences (safety, availability and others) • Locations

• Using existing information, experience and expertise • In a semi quantitative risk approach using workshops

• Development of a methodology for choosing adaptation strategies

• Resulting in an action plan, determining for each unacceptable risk the best option: • Do minimum • Gathering more information need with research and monitoring • Application of mitigating measures

• More details in break-out session #16

1

23

5

6

713

14

15

17

1821

2223 25 2627

2829

303132

35

3637

38

1

2

3

4

1 2 3 4

cons

eque

nce

probability

Future risk of threats

A method to calculate the vulnerability of a road Overview of vulnerability factors Global formulas for vulnerability index calculation Information on what GIS datasets are needed And where to find the data Table wit world/EU-scale GIS data Necessary detailed national GIS data Or additions with local knowledge

Vulnerability factor Vulnerability score 0 +1 +2 Geology (soil type in natural soil)

Material with low sensitivity to erosion (sedimentary rock, till, clay)

Somewhat erosive material (gravel, coarse sand, silty till, clayey silt, silty clay, peat)

Highly erosive material (fine and medium sand, silt, flood-plain deposits)

Topography/slope angle

less than 1:3 1:1.5 - 1:3 more than 1:1.5

Observed erosion No - Yes Existing erosion protection Yes - No

Land cover / vegetation

Forest, built-up areas, paved surface, dense vegetation

Arable land, scarce vegetation, solitary trees

disused arable land, other open land, very scarce vegetation, bare soil

Culvert/drum No culvert or drum crossing road

- culvert or drum crossing road within 20m from point of evaluation

Inspection interval Road is inspected more than once per 2 years

Road is inspected every 2-5 years

Road is inspected less than once per 5 years

Hydrography Distance to watercourse is more than 300m

Distance to watercourse is 100 -300m

Distance to watercourse is less than 100m

Slope

Soil map Land use

Road incl. inspection intervals

Rivers Erosion

Erosion protection barriers

Culverts

A methodology that allows estimating the social costs and losses incurred by an extreme weather event occurring on the network Additionally the costs of measures and the future transportation

needs will be brought under the adaptation strategy Three levels to be considered: Network level; considering potential impact on traffic;

delays, risk of accident, GHG emissions, etc. Local territory level: the territories that are

served by the road network and other transport Economic system as a whole: at a wider scale

the potential impact at corridor or inter-regional, national or cross-border level

10 step approach for climate change threats:

0. Identify the road owners’ needs 1. Identify damage mechanisms, design models, climate parameters 2. Assess the resilience of the asset in the current . . . 3. . . . and in the future situation 4. Identify adaptation measures . . . 5. . . . and policies 6. Assess consequences of measures 7. Select adaptation strategies 8. Identify stakeholders to be involved 9. Identify knowledge gaps in climate change projections, adaptation

technologies and essential data 10. Develop technology roadmaps using the time to market of innovative

adaptation technologies

Threat Number of adaptation measures

1. Flooding of road surface (assuming no traffic is possible)

150

2. Erosion of road embankments and foundations 71

3. Landslips and avalanches 97

4. Loss of road structure integrity 71

5. Loss of pavement integrity 59

6. Loss of driving ability due to extreme weather events 62

7. Reduced ability for maintenance 8

TOTAL 518

STAGES PRO-ACTION PREVENTION PREPARATION RESPONSE RECOVERY

In preparation of an extreme event

Just before an extreme

event

During an extreme

event

Just after an extreme event

After an extreme event

OBJECTIVES Enable smooth and safe traffic Support disaster consequence

reduction

Evacuation route, life

supply route

Minimizing loss of

functions

Supply route for repairs/aid

Supply route for recovery of

affected area

CATE

GO

RY O

F AD

APTA

TIO

N M

EASU

RE

Planning for CCI&EWE

PRO-ACTIVE ATTITUDE

EXTREME EVENT MANAGEMENT

Robust construction

PREVENTION

Legislation , regulations

Resilient construction UPGRADE, RETROFIT, NEW

CONSTRUCTION

Maintenance and management

PREVENTIVE

MAINTENANCE AND REPLACEMENT

CORRECTIVE

MAINTENANCE AND REPLACEMENT

Traffic management for CCI&EWE

TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT

Capacity building CAPACITY BUILDING

Monitoring MONITORING AND PREDICTION Research RESEARCH

Consequences of applying the adaptation measures are assessed in the database for operations: Availability Safety Impact on network Direct cost Reputation

for sustainability: General / Management Climate change and Energy People and Communities Ecology / Biodiversity Physical resources Quality of Life Safety, Health & Equity

Thank you for your attention All ROADAPT output is available at www.cedr.fr Thomas Bles Deltares, the Netherlands Thomas.Bles@deltares.nl +31 (0)88 3357531