Roadmapping: The power of problem finding and storytelling
Transcript of Roadmapping: The power of problem finding and storytelling
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The Power of Problem Finding and Storytelling
Irene J. Petrick, [email protected]
Irene J. Petrick & Russ Martinelli
WebinarOctober 29, 2015
Russ [email protected]
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Reviewing the Strategic Roadmapping Life Cycle
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Call to action
STRATEGIC IMPERATIVE: An external competitive threat creates an appetite for change and prompts the organization to identify strategic goals
ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT: Brainstorming sessions about events that may occur in the future help map the lay of the land
TRENDS & ASSUMPTIONS: Discussions while walking the wall identify key trends and assumptions. Assumptions help teams question their dominant logic.
TREND PRIORITIZATION: Voting through wisdom of the crowd helps to identify the few critical trends. Filtering is based on the companys strategic imperative
CRITICAL TRENDS AND ASSUMPTIONS AS INPUTS TO STORYTELLING: Prioritized trends and the assumptions identified are used as input to small groups developing scenarios.
STORY TELLING & PROBLEM FINDING: Small groups take 2-4 critical trends and envision a future scenario around those trends. The group tells a story about that future world and the problems that exist in it, often from the point of view of the end user.
Envisioning the future from the outside in
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Roadmapping team discuss Assessment Roadmap events
Creating & analyzing assessment roadmaps walking the wall
Key outcomes from the assessment session:
1. Assumptions2. Trends3. Problems4. Minority report
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Using crowd sourcing to filter environmental trends
Key outcomes from trend analysis: 1. Call to action and strategic
intent used to prioritize2. Cross-disciplinary perspective3. Top trends identified4. Used to create future scenarios
Many trends some more important than others
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Example: Sample trends from environmental assessment
Any time, any device, anywhere access to content expectation is increasing
Shared ownership of vehicles will increase in emerging markets
Governments fund 'smart city' development (including smart roads)
Pay-as-you-drive insurance increases
Governments becoming more reliant on technology to collect vehicle revenue
Multiple cameras in automobiles become ubiquitous
Consolidation of networks in the vehicle will occur
Mobile devices make the automobile a dumb terminal
The number and diversity of sensors in the automobile increases
Avionics technology to lead automobile technology
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Call to action
STRATEGIC IMPERATIVE: An external competitive threat creates an appetite for change and prompts the organization to identify strategic goals
ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT: Brainstorming sessions about events that may occur in the future help map the lay of the land
TRENDS & ASSUMPTIONS: Discussions while walking the wall identify key trends and assumptions. Assumptions help teams question their dominant logic.
TREND PRIORITIZATION: Voting through wisdom of the crowd helps to identify the few critical trends. Filtering is based on the companys strategic imperative
CRITICAL TRENDS AND ASSUMPTIONS AS INPUTS TO STORYTELLING: Prioritized trends and the assumptions identified are used as input to small groups developing scenarios.
STORY TELLING & PROBLEM FINDING: Small groups take 2-4 critical trends and envision a future scenario around those trends. The group tells a story about that future world and the problems that exist in it, often from the point of view of the end user.
Envisioning the future through storytelling
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Connection to design thinking a discipline that uses the designers sensibility and
methods to match peoples needs with what is technologically feasible and that a viable business strategy can convert into customer value and market opportunity. -- Tim Brown, IDEO
We need to connect with the people end of the story to help teams convert need into demand
More recently, design thinking has evolved into a way that helps devise and manage strategy by
Anticipating the ecosystem and context Anticipating barriers to adoption and hurdles to public
acceptance Systematically preparing the environment in advance
Storytelling
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Companies often fail to see the future because of Innovation blindness the inability to see how the future might unfold in a way that is different than the past
Experts see the world from a very focused perspective
Experts project their experiences
Storytelling
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Escaping blindness Get past what we know Use imagination to discover what might be Free constraints of our experiences & see
world through another characters eyes (end user)
The power of the Three Act Plot Structure to drive disruptive innovation
Storytelling
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Act 1: Situation, persona, experiences Begin with our future trends
The 2+1 approach (2 critical trends + 1 other) helps identify non-obvious future states
Create a story about this future Draw a picture that describes the story
Three acts of storytelling1. Situation, persona, experiences2. The conflict to be resolved3. The solutions
Storytelling
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Storytelling Act 1: Create a story
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Example: Using pictures to describe the story
Storytelling Act 1: Create a story
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Problem finding Identify non-obvious problems End user perspective
(avoids the expert knows best) Outside in view
(reduces the impact of dominant logic) Taking aim before firing
(limits the rush to judgement)
Storytelling Act 2: Problem Finding
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Strategic problem solving Linking non-obvious problems to
multiple potential solutions From an investment perspective,
identifying common ingredients across multiple possible solutions
Identifying critical points across the value stream
Identifying the control points in the value stream to identify key strategic partners
Identifying the value points to consider different business models
Storytelling Act 3: Problem solving
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Strategic Solution #1:Make the automobile a computing and communications hubthat accesses the drivers profile in the cloud, knows the drivers preferences and keeps track of driving information including habits, routes, speeds, etc.
Strategic Solution #2: Provide more value in the supply chain by: Integrating multiple
modules within the automobile
Creating a telematics services platform
Example: Sample strategic solutions
Storytelling Act 3: Problem Solving
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The Strategic Roadmapping Life Cycle
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Example: Identified technology needs
Feeding the Strategic Planning Process
Technology Needs and Gaps PortfolioStory / Scenario 1 Story / Scenario 2 Story / Scenario 3 Common needs Gaps
Technology Categories
1. Customize based on pre-, during-, and post-activity; 2. pumps for dosage
Speed 1.Gel or best-in-class (Liquid-gels or FAA)
1. During activity: liquid technology; 2. inhaler (faster than liquid)
* Liquid technology, *gels, * dissolving technology
Airborn technology; How do we do behind-the-counter direct injection (epi-pen)?
Duration1. 12-hour or best-in-class
1.Sustained-release; 2.patches (convenience)
* Sustained and/or controlled release technologies (systemic or topical)
Combination with existing formula & r-technology; pre- and during- applications
Sensory
1.Homeopathic; 2.flavors
1.Smell; 2.Flavor (to help deliver speed); 3.Energy-boost (+caffeine); 4. ODT flavors; 5.Smart Gel (self-warm/cold gel)
1.Superior flavors; 2.Taste-masking; first class products (over generics); 3. Alternative forms (ODTs, mixins, gummies); 4.Texture
* Flavor (personalized, better tasting), * Texture, * Forms
Build competency for quick prototyping and experiential testing for consumer insights (+2); Flavor production may need to be outsourced
Information Communication
1.RFID (track inventory by phone), barcode; 2.Re-order and re-stock; 3. Build a dialog and engage directly with consumer; 4.Social media;
1.Direct connect to consumer portal (educates consumer re: regiments and medication on per-activity basis); 2.Partnerships for app
1.Partnering for development of smartphone app and software system (for gathering, processing, and sharing information); 2.Delivering relevent information (language translation)
* Direct to consumer connection; * Partner for applications for entire regime (gather, process, share info); * Ingredient-qualifying (Non-GMO, dye-free, calories, sugar-free, natural) - global
Language translation: Software applications
Packaging
1.Kit design and development; single-use packets (similar look-and-feel); convenient and portable
1.Delivery of active performance relief: application, pressure, spray; 2.Ergonomic design (elderly active)
1.Superior dosing mechanisms; 2.Integrate with iPad/computer use; 3.RFID (product recognition to deliver relevent information);
* Balance between consumer delight and ownability versus cost; * Dosing control and safety; * Ergonomics (specific needs); * RFID
E-ink; Safety packaging in small packaging (currently more expensive, historically killed projects); Ergonomics (easier to open, in some cases)
Call to Action
Pfizer Call to Action
"By 2020, we will deliver consumer-driven/consumer-relevant Pain Management technology platforms that will garner $100M in global sales, further secure our market leader position, and expand coverage in pain management."
Env Assessment_Roadmap
Pfizer (Advil and Thermacare - Pain Management) Environmental Assessment Map - November 2012
20132014201520162017201820192020
Tipping Points
Consumer Expectations and Characteristics
Global MarketsDEVELOPED
EMERGING
EconomicsMACRO-
HEALTHCARE
Regulatory
Distribution (Path to Consumer)
Competition
Sustainability
Supply Chain and Manufacturing
Relatively Certain: Yellow Uncertain: Pink
Pink:Uncertain
Yellow: Fairly Certail
Consumers look for health inforrmation from pharmacists and pharmacy information hubs before doctors
Consumers seeking learning and information from social networks
Consumers will spend more time "outside" and demand "on-the-go" convenient products and packages
As consumers age, safe and gentle products (no drug interference) will grow in appeal
Consumers prefer solutions that allow for 12-hour dosage
Increased demand for topical therapies
Consumers becoming more "value-oriented" - cost pressure becomez more impoartant
Portable heat and cold therapy iused during/before sporting activities to maximize performance
Smart phones are the first place where consumers seek treatment information
Independent research shows ThermaCare reduces work loss time among chronic back sufferers
Pain relief app developed. Enter pain info and bring output to doctor or pharmacist for solution
Aging baby-boomers (who refuse to slow down) will want safe pain relief for daily use
Increased interest in non-medicated treatment (electric, magnetic)
Familiarity with epi-pen paves way for first OTC injectable product
Diagnosis of pain from internet doctors
Medical records access available through internet
Customers will expect more customized pain solutions, ie gender, age, severity, longevity, etc
Designer-made devices available
Quicker response to pain relief is available
Thermal imaging will allow immediate diagnosis of fever in children (via smartphone)
Consumers want inexpensive tools to diagnose fever
Consumers want personalized dose for your specific pain
Combination of Thermacare and electrical nerve stimulation becomes economically vialble as a disposable system
Routine MRI scan to diagnose routine pain management available
Genetic finger-printing enables identification of pain-susceptible sub-populations (migraine, r. arthritis, etc) -
Consumers have stressful lives and want easier to use products - week long duration
Using your phone as a pain relief device
External therapy for children's pain and fever becomes the norm
New technology that allows for safe and effective delivery of systemic actives available
Inhaler form of IBU - fastest delivery available
One tiny patch relieves all pain
Pain prevention technology highly available like vaccine
Older consumers can't swallow - want patches or IV pain solution
Cars assess not only its own mechanical health, but the health of its driver
Consumers can take a picture with their smartphone of their pain and get an immediate diagnosis
External market grows 3-5% in a year in US
Consumers become more interested in natural treatment
Sachet packaging grows
Curative therapies become required for payment
Rise in Ibuprohen and Ibuprophen Liquid Capsules in LAT AM
Mexico registration 3 months for products that have US registration
Globalization (ex-EU) of topical Ibuprofen (A PAC likes topical formulations)
How to penetrate US hispanic population?
Topical Diclofenac launches OTC
Far east consumer is biggest growing middle class
Pfizer is recognized as leader and most trusted in eye's of consumer
Dental pain increasese due to more sugar in diet
Back pain, joint pain, arthritis due to obesity
Demographics of aging - ?% by 2015 will be > 50 in developed markets
As consumer diets get worse, obesity and dental pain cause major need for relief
Obesity and diabetes will influence pain solutions, ie personalized size
Demographics of obesity - ? % by 2015 will be obese in developed market
Alternative forms to FAA - 12 hr, Gemini sold to Lat Am markets
Celebrex switches to OTC
Internal and externals combine with TCMs in Asian Markets
Geographic diffusion of existing PCH products is "complete"
Major retail chains spread across China enabling HUGE Advil launch
China surpasses US as #1 economy
Internal and topical Advil enters Japan market
Advil like a "Coke model" - reach out for pain relief anytime
Emerging markets will represent more sales in pain than rest of the world
Generics taking increasing market share because of poor economy
Longer lifetimes combined with tough economy requires money to be stretched farther
Fewer workers contributions to government programs due to aging population
Low birth rates means shortage of children as caregivers for the elderly
Current economy driving customers to generics
Insurers and governments support generic pain products
The "middle man" is key medical consultant of the family - for their kids, self, and parents
Push toward self-diagnosis and treatment
Longer lifetimes create slower degredation of health
More joint replacement and at a younger age
More treatments available OTC at lower cost
Ibuprofen safety challenges
Virtual pharmacist - smartphone OTC navagation
Fewer things/meds covered by insurance, increasing significance of value to customer
Higher costs of healthcare drives consumers to be more productive
Communication with your doctor is primarily through your internet account
Doctor visit throgh webcam is routine
Personal/online medical practicing will become more prevelent (iprescription provided via email)
30% of US population over age of 50 has at least one artificial joint
Retirement age increases beyond 65 in US
Mechanistic understanding of causes of pain - diagnosis, prevention, cure
Use of "Doc-in-a-box" as general practitioner becomes > 50% of population
Payers will require better knowledge of underlying condition before paying for treatment
Retail clinic visits exceed doctor office visits in the US
Ibuprofen commoditized - further innovation reaches point of poor investment
Ibuprofen commoditized
New body replacement parts becomes affordable to middle class
Fiscal insolvency of a western nationalized healthcare system
APAP losing safety "halo"
Higher reg standards in LAT AM
Increased regulation of APAP dosing and packaging options (limiting amount of tablets)
Changes in regus on maximum dosage of APAP (may be different in different countries)
Celebrex patent expires in the US (May 2014)
Celebrex patent expires in the US (May 2014)
Celebrex Rx to OTC switch
"Behind the counter" OTC clasification becomes law in US
Pharmacist has care-decision authority
Regulatory response to "alternative pain solutions" from ignore to srict guidelines
Unified drug approval process in Latin America
China registration lead time reduced to 2 years (from 5 years)
Cannabis is decriminalized in US
Dollar Stores will grow as channel given need for value
Increasing use of the internet will lead to more online purchasing
Thermacare in alternate channels, ie Sport Authority
Shoppers are visitng more specialized stores vs. one-stop shopping
DC models - "Arm" model in India
Amazon is a key channel for distribution
Online ordering and direct to consumer sales captures > 20% market
Subscription or auto-refill in direct to consumer
Retailers have doctors available for sufferers
Online pharmacy sales grow to 20% of total
Direct to consumer sales
Thermacare in alternate channels - Home Depot, Sports Authoriity, Dr. Offices, Aiport Kiosk
High-end vending machines and kiosks become prevalent distribution for OTC
Heat wraps are endorsed and sold by physical therapists
"Barefoot doctors" program launches in the US, changes delivery of basic healthcare in US
Distribution and seller is pharmacist to distribute healthcare products
Direct to consumer channel represents majority of device sales
Retailers and pharmacists use predictive analytics to predict pain and influence purchases
Pain relief spas offer 30 minute relief sessions for most pain types
Total pain solution "pop-up" stores
Own OTC - in order for competition to play... theY do by our rules (eg. Gillette razor category)
Digital will represent the majority of pain sales
Thermacare and Advil flagship store or kiosk
Shoppers buy OTC primarily from their phones
Bio-active peptides become available to treat arthritis and inflammation
Children's IBU - shake-in flavors
Children's Tylenol back on market
Return of Children's Tylenol
J&J re-enters children's IBU market
Other analgesics coming off patent
Growing trends in alternative medicines (ie accupuntcure) perceived as safer by consumers
Will another pain relief go OTC?
Generic sodium IBU launches in US
Tylenol returning to market with backlog of innovation - new news/products
TENS units are sold in stores (pharmacies, Walmart) in addition to online
Voltaren launches heat patches throughout Europe
OTC pain patch with systemic effects launches
Reckett (spelling?) in USA pain market
Thermacare P&G patents expire
Store brand owns pain market as consumers demand best value
Topical didofanac as OTC in US
Nuromol (spelling?) launches in US (Rx?)
GSK in USA pain market
Is a multii-day IBU patch possible?
Patch technology to deliver long-lasting, time-released, systemic delivery of pain relief drugs (plus topical and sensory relief
Generic 12-hr IBU launches in US
Personalized extemporaneous compounding of OTC products in vending machines debuts in US
Battery technology (shrinking size and longer duration) leads to electrical heat or cold wrap
Competition launches a less expensive heat wrap
Moist heat is introduced to consumers by either Pfizer or competition
Altria (Philip Morris) launches OTC canabis for pain relief
Pain prevention claims/benefit become cost of entry - changes the usage occassion and trigger
Generic IBU-APAP launches in US
Mechanistic treatment for OA
Needle-free/painless injections become economically viable allowing direct application of medication to target area
Walmart sustainability score card - based on carbon footprint
Increase in usages of "natural" therapies
Less packaging waster - post-consumer packaging materials
Retailers want fewer SKUs
PCH sustainability strategy becomes more defined
Biodegradable bottle first used for OTC drug
J&J captures "sustainability equity" in the mind of the consumer with Tylenol program
Concern over drug byproducts in sewage contaminating
Sustainability strategy a requirement for PCH for pain brands to continue building trust with consumers
Elimination of cartons
Legislation is US driving sustainability 100% recycled packaging
Transparent and commercialized stories regarding PCH sustainable manufacturing practices pupport Advil equity and trust
Manufacturing packaging strategy across product SKUs
Rapid-release soft gelatin capsule technology becomes available
Concern of consumer preference for having gelatin - what if another BSE/TSE issue?
Africa becomes next labor-market - sourcing and manufacturing possible
Late stage product differentiation allows/facilitates specific products/ combinations (manufacture to order)
Are there advantages of making dosage form in country to allow preferable approvals?
Diclofenac switches to OTC
China reduces approval time
Sodium Ibuprophen
Moist Heat Introduced
Thermacare patent expires
Osteoarthritis cure
Env Assessment_Session Detail
Pfizer (Advil and Thermacare - Pain Management) Environmental Assessment Map - November 2012
20132014201520162017201820192020
Consumer Expectations and Characteristics
Global MarketsDEVELOPED
EMERGING
EconomicsMACRO-
HEALTHCARE
Regulatory
Distribution (Path to Consumer)
Competition
Sustainability
Supply Chain and Manufacturing
Relatively Certain: Yellow Uncertain: Pink
Pink
Yellow
Consumers look for health inforrmation from pharmacists and pharmacy information hubs before doctors
Consumers seeking learning and information from social networks
"Device + Delivery Systems"
Consumers will spend more time "outside" and demand "on-the-go" convenient products and packages
As consumers age, safe and gentle products (no drug interference) will grow in appeal
Increased demand for topical therapies
Sachet packaging grows
Curative therapies become required for payment
Rise in Ibuprohen and Ibuprophen Liquid Capsules in LAT AM
Mexico registration 3 months for products that have US registration
Globalization (ex-EU) of topical Ibuprofen (A PAC likes topical formulations)
Smart packaging with dose delivery personalized
Dental pain increasese due to more sugar in diet
Back pain, joint pain, arthritis due to obesity
Diagnosis of pain from internet doctors
Medical records access through internet
Customers will expect more customized pain solutions, ie gender, age, severity, longevity, etc
Alternative forms to FAA - 12 hr, Gemini solds to Lat Am markets
Consumers want inexpensive tools to diagnose fever
Consumers want personalized dose for your specific pain
Combination of Thermacare and electrical nerve stimulation becomes economically vialble as a disposable system
Routine MRI scan to diagnose routine pain management
Thermacare as a sinus treatment
Consumers have stressful lives and want easier to use products - week long duration
Geographic diffusion of existing PCH products is "complete"
Insurers and governments support generic pain products
The "middle man" is key medical consultant of the family - for their kids, self, and parents
Push toward self-diagnosis and treatment
Longer lifetimes create slower degredation of health
Mechanistic understanding of causes of pain - diagnosis, prevention, cure
Dollar Stores will grow as channel given need for value
Increasing use of the internet will lead to more online purchasing
Thermacare in alternate channels, ie Sport Authority
Shoppers are visitng more specialized stores vs. one-stop shopping
DC models - "Arm" model in India
Will another pain relief go OTC?
Bio-active peptides become available to treat arthritis and inflammation
Children's IBU - shake-in flavors
Amazon is a key channel for distribution
Online ordering and direct to consumer sales captures > 20% market
Subscription or auto-refill in direct to consumer
Retailers have doctors available for sufferers
Online pharmacy sales grow to 20% of total
Direct to consumer sales
Thermacare in alternate channels - Home Depot, Sports Authoriity, Dr. Offices, Aiport Kiosk
High-end vending machines and kiosks become prevalent distribution for OTC
Heat wraps are endorsed and sold by physical therapists
Fewer things/meds covered by insurance, increasing significance of value to customer
"Barefoot doctors" program launches in the US, changes delivery of basic healthcare in US
Distribution and seller is pharmacist to distribute healthcare products
Direct to consumer channel represents majority of device sales
Is a multii-day IBU patch possible?
Patch technology to deliver long-lasting, time-released, systemic delivery of pain relief drugs (plus topical and sensory relief
Retailers and pharmacists use predictive analytics to predict pain and influence purchases
Pain relief spas offer 30 minute relief sessions for most pain types
Total pain solution "pop-up" stores
Altria (Philip Morris) launches OTC canabis for pain relief
Pain prevention claims/benefit become cost of entry - changes the usage occassion and trigger
APAP losing safety "halo"
Higher regulation standards in LAT AM
Increased regulation of APAP dosing and packaging options (limiting amount of tablets)
Changes in regulations on maximum dosage of APAP (may be different in different countries)
Celebrex patent expires in the US (May 2014)
Celebrex Rx to OTC switch
"Behind the counter" OTC clasification becomes law in US
Pharmacist has care-decision authority
China registration lead time reduced to 2 years (from 5 years)
Cannabis is decriminalized in US
Generic sodium IBU launches in US
Tylenol returning to market with backlog of innovation - new news/products
TENS units are sold in stores (pharmacies, Walmart) in addition to online
Voltaren launches heat patches throughout Europe
OTC pain patch with systemic effects launches
Reckett (spelling?) in USA pain market
Thermacare P&G patents expire
Store brand owns pain market as consumers demand best value
Topical didofanac as OTC in US
Generic 12-hr IBU launches in US
Personalized extemporaneous compounding of OTC products in vending machines debuts in US
Battery technology (shrinking size and longer duration) leads to electrical heat or cold wrap
Competition launches a less expensive heat wrap
Generic IBU-APAP launches in US
Mechanistic treatment for OA
Needle-free/painless injections become economically viable allowing direct application of medication to target area
Manufacturing packaging strategy across product SKUs
Concern over drug byproducts in sewage contaminating
Sustainability strategy a requirement for PCH or pain brands to continue building trust with consumers
Elimination of cartons
Children's Tylenol back on market
Return of Children's Tylenol
J&J re-enters children's IBU market
Other analgesics coming off patent
Growing trends in alternative medicines (ie accupuntcure) perceived as safer by consumers
Walmart sustainability score card - based on carbon footprint
Increase in usages of "natural" therapies
Less packaging waster - post-consumer packaging materials
Retailers want fewer SKUs
Own OTC - in order for competition to play... the do by our rules (eg. Gillette razor category)
Digital will represent the majority of pain sales
Thermacare and Advil flagship store or kiosk
Shoppers buy OTC primarily from their phones
Nuromol (spelling?) launches in US (Rx?)
GSK in USA pain market
Moist heat is introduced to consumers by either Pfizer or competition
Legislation is US driving sustainability 100% recycled packaging
Transparent and commercialized stories regarding PCH sustainable manufacturing practices pupport Advil equity and trust
PCH sustainability strategy becomes more defined
Rapid-release soft gelatin capsule technology becomes available
Biodegradable bottle first used for OTC drug
J&J captures "sustainability equity" in the mind of the consumer with Tylenol program
Concern of consumer preference for having gelatin - what if another BSE/TSE issue?
African becomes next labor-market - sourcing and manufacturing possible
Late stage product differentiation allows/facilitates specific products/combinations (manufacture to order)
Are there advantages of making dosage form in country to allow preferable approvals?
Familiarity with epi-pen paves way for first OTC injectable product
In-home ultrasound or laser therapy for pain treatment and prevention (very localized)
Combine Advil and Thermacare to "own" pain globally - "pain kits"
Thermacare brand and adjacencies (topicals and durables)
Thermacare by Under Armour (co-branding)
Designer-made devices
Quicker response to pain relief
Thermacare expands to mobility
Thermal imaging will allow immediate diagnosis of fever in children (via smartphone)
Genetic finger-printing enables identification of pain-susceptible sub-populations (migraine, r. arthritis, etc) -
Using your phone as a pain relief device
External therapy for children's pain and fever becomes the norm
New technology that allows for safe and effective delivery of systemic actives
External market grows 3-5% in a year in US
Consumers become more interested in natural treatment
How to penetrate hispanic population as growing in US?
Topical Diclofenac launches OTC
Far east consumer is biggest growing middle class
Pfiizer owning OTC category. Pfizer is recognized as leader and most trusted in eye's of consumer
Demographics of aging - ?% by 2015 will be > 50 in developed markets
Celebrex switches to OTC
As consumer diets get worse, obesity and dental pain cause major need for relief
Obesity and diabetes will influence pain solutions, ie personalized size
Demographics of obesity - ? % by 2015 will be obese in developed market
Internal and externals combine with TCMs in Asian Markets
Major retail chains spread across China enabling HUGE Advil launch
China surpasses US as #1 economy
Internal and topical Advil enters Japan market
Advil like a "Coke model" - reach out for pain relief anytime
Emerging markets will represent more sales in pain than rest of the world
Unified drug approval process in Latin America
30% of US population over age of 50 has at least one artificial joint
Higher costs of healthcare drives consumers to be more productive
Communication with your doctor is primarily through your internet account
Doctor visit throgh webcam is routine
Retirement age increases beyond 65 in US
Use of "Doc-in-a-box" as general practitioner becomes > 50% of population
Payers will require better knowledge of underlying condition before paying for treatment
New body replacement parts becomes affordable to middle class
Generics taking increasing market share because of poor economy
Longer lifetimes combined with tough economy requires money to be stretched farther
More treatments available OTC at lower cost
Ibuprofen safety challenges
Virtual pharmacist - smartphone OTC navagation
Regulatory response to "alternative pain solutions" from ignore (require disclaimer) to srict guidelines
Personal/online medical practicing will become more prevelent (in-store or at home), eg prescription provided via email
Retail clinic visits exceed doctor office visits in the US
Ibuprofen commoditized - further innovation reaches point of poor investment
Inhaler form of IBU - fastest delivery available
One tiny patch relieves all pain
Fiscal insolvency of a western nationalized healthcare system
Pain prevention technology highly available like vaccine
Older consumers can't swallow - want patches or IV pain solution
Cars assess not only its own mechanical health, but the health of its driver
Consumers can take a picture with their smartphone of their pain and get an immediate diagnosis
Moms prefer solutions that allow for 12-hour dosage
Consumers are becoming more "value-oriented" - cost pressure will become more impoartant
Portable heat and cold therapy is used during/before sporting activities to maximize performance (cold is used among marathoners)
Smart phones are the first place where consumers seek treatment information
Independent research shows ThermaCare reduces work loss time among chronic back sufferers
Pain relief app developed. Enter pain info and bring output to doctor or pharmacist for solution
Aging population increases pressure on fewer workers contributions to government programs
Low birth rates means shortage of children as caregivers for the elderly
Current economy driving customers to generics
More joint replacement and at a younger age
Aging baby-boomers (who refuse to slow down) will want safe pain relief for daily use
Increased interest in non-medicated treatment (electric, magnetic)
Thermacare regiment - theraputic 3-day (hot, cold, hot, cold, etc...)
Trends & Assumptions
Environmental Assessement Trends and Assumptions (Day 1 output)
Trends Assumptions
Consumer Expectations and CharacteristicsValue continues to be more important in the buying decisionEnvironmental context matters
Ease of use continues to be more desirable and speed of benefit will become more desirableRetired consumers are different from othr consumers economically (compared to younger generation, for example)
Use of internet for diagnosis and drug distribution will become commonPeople and companies other than Pfizer will be developing apps (Pfizer cntinues to be risk adverse)
Personalization and fashion will become a delivery decision driverEveryone values convenience nearly equally (even globally)
Desire for targeted relief will increaseCombination products will be more desirable
Consumers will desire more tools for self-diagnosisThere is no demonstrable advantage to a patch for drug delivery
Consumers will desire personal dosageWe will have physical models and diagnostics that provide guidance for treatments
Consumers will want and act on genetically-based dosing as preventative care
Portable devices play a role in diagnosis and delivery
Customers expect better tasting products.
Convenience and on-the-go demand is growing
Global Markets (Developed and Emerging)Design for convenience and accessibilityOther solutions will cause a decline in demand for IB
Desire growing for solutions that cure root cause instead of just reliefTruly global brands can (and will) exist
Emerging markets desire topical solutions
Overall, worldwide population continues to age
Obesity increasing globally: joint pain and dental pain
Increasing desire for liquid-filled capsules for pain solutions
Combination of natural and chemical solutions is increasing (east and west medication)
Major retail chains in China opening more distribution
Within 8-10 years, new molecules may threaten IB solutions
Emerging markets becoming more open to alternative pain relief solutions
Economics (Macro- and Healthcare)Tougher economies drive consumers to more genericsPain will always be treated when it arises (rather than strictly evidence based reimbursements)
Exercising and activity in later years extends quality of lifeGreen will be important everywhere
Online communication with doctor and pharmacy moves into general healthcareLabor rates continue to driving sourcing decisions
Walk-in clinics become more preferable than going to GP (Doc-in-a-box)
Payers requiring documentation of efficacy for reimbursement (evidence-based)
Payers are covering less meds and driving more OTC treatment
RegulatoryMovement toward lower doses of 'A-PAP'
Higher regulation standards in some Latin American markets (APAC?)
Behind the counter regulation continues to become lower in the US
Harmonized standards increase regionally (unification of standards)
Faster approval time continues to occur
Medical marijuana is growing
Distribution and Path to ConsumerOnline orders increase rapidly
Direct to consumer sales becoming more prevalent (medications and devices)
Pain relief SPAs are increasing
Multi-brand pop-up stores increasing
Category ownership migrates to the OTC market
Retailers demanding fewer SKUs
CompetitionElectronic pain device available in mass market
Increasing share of generic products
Alternative delivery mechanisms become a viable competitive threat
More intense competition among branded products for a smaller share
Fewer competitor missteps will occur
Service-based offerings over product-based offerings increase (provides greater value capture)
SustainabilityReuse/repurposing of packaging increasing
Increase monitor and control over pharma molecules in the environment
Use of durables is increasing
Increased regulation over recycling
Continuous reduction of packaging
Supply Chain and ManufacturingManufacturing processes are becoming more scalable
Standardization of critical processes increasing
Localized manufacturing increases
Brand-based strategies for packaging increases
Personalized and customized manufacturing solutions increases
Continued concern with naturally-produced products
OTC counterfeiting increasing
Minority Report
Environmental Roadmapping Session (Day 1)
Minority Opinions
[1] Sustainability will become a differentiator in purchasing decisions (and will become a potential competitive threat)
[2] Evidence based reimbursement will drive adoption
[3] Consumers value smaller stores rather than megastores such as WalMart.
Advil Trends Portfolio
Advil Trend Portfolio
TrendSELECTION CRITERIA
Vote TotalsPriorityOPPORTUNITY
"If this happens, we can see a direct path to success"END-USER
"Meaningful benefit to a large population of consumer; can also provide consumers with a leap-frog solution"GLOBAL REACH
"Will provide an opportunity to increase our global reach"OWNABLE
"Provides and opportunity for ownable IP"THREAT
"If this happens, we might be in trouble"
1Consumer shopping habits changing, looking for more value for dollar spent45616101728
2Ease of use and convenience becoming more desirable - Devices3887121196
3Consumers seeking simpler ways to manage their lives (often through technology)33118130
4Use of the Internet for informaiton gathering, diagnosis, ordering (direct to consumer) and drug distribution will become more common 369114145
5Consumers will desire targeted relief - taking only Rx needed; value30465153
6Consumers will desire more tools for self-diagnosis - emphasis on self-diagnosis; eg. home tests40103
7Consumers will desire personal dosage and customized drug delivery solutions, including potential fashion considerations - emphasis on personalization and customization47514104205
8Consumers will want and act on genetically-based dosing as preventative care00000
9Portable devices play a role in diagnosis and delivery102910
10Customers expect better tasting products - appearance and other sensory characteristics60216166229
11Desire is growing for solutions that cure root causes instead of just relief3351131410
12Emerging markets desire topical solutions10010
13Worldwide population continues to age, live longer, and desires to remain more active64121251547
14Obesity is increasing globally (resulting in more joint, dental and other pains)3191254
15Increasing desire for fluid-filled capsules - perception of efficacy and speed of relief32142313
16Combination of natural and chemical solutions is increasing (east and west meciations), including the use of medical marijuana2874413
17Major retail chains in China open more distribution channels - broaden to global trade throughout the globe opens more distribution channels1220100
18With 8-10 years new molecules Rx switches threaten IB solutions54315183181
19Walk-in clinics become more preferable to going to the GP (doc-in-a-box) - developed markets10010
20Payers require documentation of efficacy for reimbursement (evidence based reimbursement)00000
21More and more consumers will be held accountable for living healthier32010
22Movement toward lower doses in A-PAP - not Europe22000
23Higher regulations standards in some Latin America markets - higher efficacy31020
24Behind the counter regulation is reduced introduced in the US and gains momentum14122004
25Harmonized standards increase regionally62040
26Faster approval time continues to occur00000
27Pain relief spas are increasing00000
28Multi-brand pop-up stores increase62040
29Retailers demand fewer SKUs - more competition for shelf space00000
30Electric pain relief devices are increasingly available in the mass market - shift from mechanical to electrical30120
31Alternative delivery mechanisms become a viable competitive threat - epi-pens, head-on161519
32More intense competition among branded products for a smaller share00000
33Fewer competitor missteps will occur22000
34Service-based offerings over product-based offerings will increase - spas70151
35Increased regulation of recycling promotes reuse/repurposing of packaging or use of durables - green and sustainable3315918
36Increased monitoring and control over pharma molecules in the environment00000
37Manufacturing processes are becoming more scalable, standardized and customizable166007
38Localized manufacturing increases - speed to market; protectionism2763810
39Continued consumer and regulatory concern with naturally produced (GMO) products00000
40OTC counterfeiting increases00000
41Genetic planning leads to preventative care70304
42Younger generation more accepting of western Rx2738160
43Global healthcare changing - pushing costs down; pushing to OTC23120110
44Customized SKUs by retailers20002
45Increasing ethics for brand value101252
46Increased global mobility70070
47Consumers dealing with continued increase in personal stress38772074
48Increased globalization of competitive brands3510951822
49Product focus on entire family - kids focus4741512119
Person to contact about this research
Where research output will be delivered
Person to contact about this research
Where research output will be delivered
Person to contact about this research
Where research output will be delivered
Advil Tech Needs & Gaps
Technology Needs and Gaps Portfolio
Story / Scenario 1Story / Scenario 2Story / Scenario 3Scenario 5Scenario 6Common needsGaps
Technology Categories1. Customize based on pre-, during-, and post-activity; 2. pumps for dosage
Speed1.Gel or best-in-class (Liquid-gels or FAA)1. During activity: liquid technology; 2. inhaler (faster than liquid)* Liquid technology, *gels, * dissolving technologyAirborn technology; How do we do behind-the-counter direct injection (epi-pen)?
Duration1. 12-hour or best-in-class1.Sustained-release; 2.patches (convenience)* Sustained and/or controlled release technologies (systemic or topical)Combination with existing formula & r-technology; pre- and during- applications
Sensory1.Homeopathic; 2.flavors1.Smell; 2.Flavor (to help deliver speed); 3.Energy-boost (+caffeine); 4. ODT flavors; 5.Smart Gel (self-warm/cold gel)1.Superior flavors; 2.Taste-masking; first class products (over generics); 3. Alternative forms (ODTs, mixins, gummies); 4.Texture* Flavor (personalized, better tasting), * Texture, * FormsBuild competency for quick prototyping and experiential testing for consumer insights (+2); Flavor production may need to be outsourced
Information Communication1.RFID (track inventory by phone), barcode; 2.Re-order and re-stock; 3. Build a dialog and engage directly with consumer; 4.Social media; 1.Direct connect to consumer portal (educates consumer re: regiments and medication on per-activity basis); 2.Partnerships for app1.Partnering for development of smartphone app and software system (for gathering, processing, and sharing information); 2.Delivering relevent information (language translation)* Direct to consumer connection; * Partner for applications for entire regime (gather, process, share info); * Ingredient-qualifying (Non-GMO, dye-free, calories, sugar-free, natural) - globalLanguage translation: Software applications
Packaging1.Kit design and development; single-use packets (similar look-and-feel); convenient and portable1.Delivery of active performance relief: application, pressure, spray; 2.Ergonomic design (elderly active)1.Superior dosing mechanisms; 2.Integrate with iPad/computer use; 3.RFID (product recognition to deliver relevent information); * Balance between consumer delight and ownability versus cost; * Dosing control and safety; * Ergonomics (specific needs); * RFIDE-ink; Safety packaging in small packaging (currently more expensive, historically killed projects); Ergonomics (easier to open, in some cases)
Advil Tech Roadmap
Advil Technology Roadmap
20132014201520162017201820192020
Safety
Information Communication and Education
Packaging
Efficacy, Forms, and Formulation Technology
Product and Consumer Research
Diagnostics
Key Partners
Update apps continuously
Rx to OTC switch?
What does this pipeline look like?
Flavor + form preference
- Broad study to understand global + age groups
Dosing applicator (cup or syringe)
Dosing calculator (package)
Locking mechanism for kit
Website safety support
Research lockout devices for Flavil
Research daily dosing system
Understand dose related flavor change
Develop tutorial videos for products
Safer IBU
- Stop stomach issues- Understand
Smartphone apps on safety
Flavor that changes pleasant if you take recommended, negative if you take too much
Drug interaction and safety
Increased concentration2x strong, less volume
Ped Med
Finalize lockout system
Finalize daily dosing device
Dosing applicator (dial up syringe)
Safer IBU- Clinicals- Understand results
Dosing calculator (dispenser)
Controlled dispensing (with lockout)
Patch safety
Dosing applicator(Dispenser)
Dosing applicator (pipette/clicking mechanism)
Drug interaction = dosing calculator system
Social media research
Study on global brands (link)
Web launch database/all inclusive/interactive (portal)
Information retrieval study
Scan barcode to pull up videos
Dosing calculator (electronic)
ie Apps
Use social media (kit) study
Kiosk research - what would it take to get our products in kiosks?
Investigate latest IT
Design apps
Ped Med
FAQ videosInternal testing
Recomment product app- Order online- Doctor/ER visit needed- Doctor input needed- Order from this app- Symptom apps
Understand directions and translate in different cultures
Ped Med
Replenish kit app
Incorporate RFID into package
FAQ video launch
Investigate latest IT
Investigate latest IT
Investigate latest IT
Explore- Dispensers- Applicators- Devices
Research green packages
- Edible- Compostable- Other
Investigate ergonomics and modern designs + locking
ConceptsSmaller package designs and dispensing
- All projects
Kit design and exploring
Develop breakaway on-go nesting packages
Develop scannable code on packaging for video of use + FAQs
App design for location of nearest purchase
Explore suppository packaging
Design and develop ergonomic and modern packaging
Design daily dose system
Lockout mechanism
- Design- Research
Kiosk and dispensing investigation
Design and develop increased dose dispense
- Suspension
Investigating voice recognition package
- Time to reorder- Explore
Develop sensor for expiration (text)
Develop sensor for temp, humidity, or other problems
- Safety
Develop fingerprint recognition on bottle for safety
- Custom
Develop compounding kiosk at pharmacy for flavor dev
Develop foil/strip package + patch
Digital dispensing device development with scanning adjust
- Connects to phone- Monitor
Long-lasting IR/ER (other combos)
Soft Gel- Internal expertise and development* Easy to swallow compared to tablets* Taste masking and fast-acting
Celebrex
Evaluating safer IBU (PLX technology)
Rapid prototyping process- What internal hurdles do we need to address/change/modify?
"Coating" of actives
Rx to OTC switch?
Sachet- Vita-sprint- Mix-ins
Coated modified release parhcles (?) (safer IBU)
Ped Med suppository explore
Rx to OTC switch?
Higher conc. suspension for kids (Ped Med)
Gemini MR suspension
MR IBU suspension
Ketoprofen
Rx to OTC switch?
ODT sublingual
Taste changing formulation (safety)
ShotsEnergy gels
Rx to OTC switch?
Strips
Patches
Changing color ink printed on tablets
Rx to OTC switch?
Rx to OTC switch?
Rx to OTC switch?
Package messagingBrand/product's message- Form, flavor, dose- Ingredients- Safety- Play up emotions
Consumer taste research- Taste masking and flavors
Consumer useDaily dosing device
Consumer use- Confirm safety and design of locking device
SuppositoryConsumer initial use study
Consumer use- Package sensor studies
Consumer usePleasant -> Poor taste
Safe dosing
Consumer useDosing applicator and calc
Consumer useDigital dispensing
Consumer useStrips and patches
Need to find out what information we can collect with the average smartphone
Need someone watching current technologies
Need to find out how parents want to collect health information from their children
Need to develop something to collect, transmit, and store health metrics
App for manual input of health metrics for analysis
Need device and app for kit druge management
Semi-automatic
Develop sensor implant that gives real-time health information
Develop sensor to detect problems
Develop app to populate vitals and sent to and receive from medical experts
Partner with a mobile software developer
Need to partner with medical sensor supplier
Partner with data security firm
Partner with medical implant company
Partner with medical device company
Lockout mechanism - packaging design
Partner with design company - lockout mechanism (Flavil)
Educate! Build trust and market safer IBU
Supply for lockout system
Key partners for complementary combinations
Topicals - Imp to develop external partner
Complementary devices
Coating - Imp to develop external partnership
Study! Major drug interactions (continue throughout)
Partnerships with Healthcare and Pharma
Design partner - small package
Kit partner
Develop partnership with Delivery (ie UPS/FedEx)
Flavor science (Monell Sensory Institute)
Partner Tastemaking Solvent coating process
Interaction database
Partner with fingerprint technology, co-feasibility
Partner with kiosk dispensing system
Talk to technology sensor and app companies
Strip dev - Imp to develop external partnership
Patch dev - Imp to develop external partnership
Flavor research- Flavor houses- Global trends
Consumer study on product need by demographic
Packaging (elderly)- Ergonomic- Ease of use- Portability- Combination packs
Packaging (kids)- Dosing application- Tunable dosing- Smaller packaging- Portability- Safety (locking mechanism)
Kit research- What does the kit include?- Who is interested?- Work w/ focus group and design to create "kit"
From flavor and form broad data
Rapid prototypes for evaluation by different age groups
Consumer research- Package designs- Technology
Products research on senior package
Products researchSmaller packages- Testing
Sara
Julia
David
Jeff
Jonathon Boggia
Kevin K
Eric
Vanessa
Kristine
Eric
David
Jeff
Kevin K
Jay
Julia
Kristine
Sara
Jonathon Boggia
Vanessa
Denise Walters
Joyce
Joyce
Jay
Ped Med Express Scenario
Team 1 - "Ped Med Express"
Trends:https://www.dropbox.com/s/99argj0zm0yutx0/Trends%2C%20Scenario%20and%20Storytelling.JPG
Scenario and Storytelling:https://www.dropbox.com/s/99argj0zm0yutx0/Trends%2C%20Scenario%20and%20Storytelling.JPG
Problem Finding and Solution Development:https://www.dropbox.com/s/3ozthnhzrym5bqy/Problem%20Finding%20and%20Solution%20Development.JPG
Video:https://www.dropbox.com/s/6chqm04omlf8d4z/Report%20Out%20and%20Presentation.mp4
https://www.dropbox.com/s/99argj0zm0yutx0/Trends%2C%20Scenario%20and%20Storytelling.JPGhttps://www.dropbox.com/s/99argj0zm0yutx0/Trends%2C%20Scenario%20and%20Storytelling.JPGhttps://www.dropbox.com/s/3ozthnhzrym5bqy/Problem%20Finding%20and%20Solution%20Development.JPGhttps://www.dropbox.com/s/6chqm04omlf8d4z/Report%20Out%20and%20Presentation.mp4
Iron Lady Scenario
Team 2 - "Iron Lady"
Trends:https://www.dropbox.com/s/t6vou7v3xti62ts/Trends.JPG
Scenario and Storytelling:https://www.dropbox.com/s/n2iuj4n6ayz14dm/Scenario%20and%20Storytelling.JPG
Problem Finding and Solution Development:https://www.dropbox.com/s/a1t7tvmcnqhkhea/Problem%20Finding%20and%20Solution%20Development.JPG
Video:https://www.dropbox.com/s/bhk6q0zjv0qya8o/Report%20Out%20and%20Presentation.mp4
https://www.dropbox.com/s/t6vou7v3xti62ts/Trends.JPGhttps://www.dropbox.com/s/n2iuj4n6ayz14dm/Scenario%20and%20Storytelling.JPGhttps://www.dropbox.com/s/a1t7tvmcnqhkhea/Problem%20Finding%20and%20Solution%20Development.JPGhttps://www.dropbox.com/s/bhk6q0zjv0qya8o/Report%20Out%20and%20Presentation.mp4
Flavil Scenario
Team 3 - "Flavil"
Trends:https://www.dropbox.com/s/h10vtbdwhvveu3a/Trends.JPG
Scenario and Storytelling:https://www.dropbox.com/s/ywopheva23exedj/Scenario%20and%20Storytelling.JPG
Problem Finding and Solution Development:https://www.dropbox.com/s/0jqoxnrho5py9ke/Problem%20Finding%20and%20Solution%20Development.JPG
Video:https://www.dropbox.com/s/8dozvauq968atd4/Report%20Out%20and%20Presentation.mp4
https://www.dropbox.com/s/h10vtbdwhvveu3a/Trends.JPGhttps://www.dropbox.com/s/ywopheva23exedj/Scenario%20and%20Storytelling.JPGhttps://www.dropbox.com/s/0jqoxnrho5py9ke/Problem%20Finding%20and%20Solution%20Development.JPGhttps://www.dropbox.com/s/8dozvauq968atd4/Report%20Out%20and%20Presentation.mp4
My Pain On the Go Scenario
Team 4 - "My Pain Solution On-the-go"
Trends:https://www.dropbox.com/s/solsc40abt7nzwj/Trends%2C%20Scenario%20and%20Storytelling.JPG
Scenario and Storytelling:https://www.dropbox.com/s/solsc40abt7nzwj/Trends%2C%20Scenario%20and%20Storytelling.JPG
Problem Finding and Solution Development:https://www.dropbox.com/s/47209qgr69k0o13/Problem%20Finding%20and%20Solution%20Development.JPG
Video:https://www.dropbox.com/s/eynllk7thus0s00/Report%20Out%20and%20Presentation.mp4
https://www.dropbox.com/s/solsc40abt7nzwj/Trends%2C%20Scenario%20and%20Storytelling.JPGhttps://www.dropbox.com/s/solsc40abt7nzwj/Trends%2C%20Scenario%20and%20Storytelling.JPGhttps://www.dropbox.com/s/47209qgr69k0o13/Problem%20Finding%20and%20Solution%20Development.JPGhttps://www.dropbox.com/s/eynllk7thus0s00/Report%20Out%20and%20Presentation.mp4
Smart & Savvy Spending Scenario
Team 5 - "$mart & $avvy $pending"
Trends:https://www.dropbox.com/s/69n00siofpdk6kb/Trends%2C%20Scenario%20and%20Storytelling.JPG
Scenario and Storytelling:https://www.dropbox.com/s/69n00siofpdk6kb/Trends%2C%20Scenario%20and%20Storytelling.JPG
Problem Finding and Solution Development:https://www.dropbox.com/s/1h7rbhmtidkyhnp/Problem%20Finding%20and%20Solution%20Development.JPG
Video:https://www.dropbox.com/s/jrvfqi2dgr3r17j/Report%20Out%20and%20Presentation.mp4
https://www.dropbox.com/s/69n00siofpdk6kb/Trends%2C%20Scenario%20and%20Storytelling.JPGhttps://www.dropbox.com/s/69n00siofpdk6kb/Trends%2C%20Scenario%20and%20Storytelling.JPGhttps://www.dropbox.com/s/1h7rbhmtidkyhnp/Problem%20Finding%20and%20Solution%20Development.JPGhttps://www.dropbox.com/s/jrvfqi2dgr3r17j/Report%20Out%20and%20Presentation.mp4
Dropbox Files and Videos
Team 1 - "Ped Med Express"
Trends:https://www.dropbox.com/s/99argj0zm0yutx0/Trends%2C%20Scenario%20and%20Storytelling.JPG
Scenario and Storytelling:https://www.dropbox.com/s/99argj0zm0yutx0/Trends%2C%20Scenario%20and%20Storytelling.JPG
Problem Finding and Solution Development:https://www.dropbox.com/s/3ozthnhzrym5bqy/Problem%20Finding%20and%20Solution%20Development.JPG
Video:https://www.dropbox.com/s/6chqm04omlf8d4z/Report%20Out%20and%20Presentation.mp4
Team 2 - "Iron Lady"
Trends:https://www.dropbox.com/s/t6vou7v3xti62ts/Trends.JPG
Scenario and Storytelling:https://www.dropbox.com/s/n2iuj4n6ayz14dm/Scenario%20and%20Storytelling.JPG
Problem Finding and Solution Development:https://www.dropbox.com/s/a1t7tvmcnqhkhea/Problem%20Finding%20and%20Solution%20Development.JPG
Video:https://www.dropbox.com/s/bhk6q0zjv0qya8o/Report%20Out%20and%20Presentation.mp4
Team 3 - "Flavil"
Trends:https://www.dropbox.com/s/h10vtbdwhvveu3a/Trends.JPG
Scenario and Storytelling:https://www.dropbox.com/s/ywopheva23exedj/Scenario%20and%20Storytelling.JPG
Problem Finding and Solution Development:https://www.dropbox.com/s/0jqoxnrho5py9ke/Problem%20Finding%20and%20Solution%20Development.JPG
Video:https://www.dropbox.com/s/8dozvauq968atd4/Report%20Out%20and%20Presentation.mp4
Team 4 - "My Pain Solution On-the-go"
Trends:https://www.dropbox.com/s/solsc40abt7nzwj/Trends%2C%20Scenario%20and%20Storytelling.JPG
Scenario and Storytelling:https://www.dropbox.com/s/solsc40abt7nzwj/Trends%2C%20Scenario%20and%20Storytelling.JPG
Problem Finding and Solution Development:https://www.dropbox.com/s/47209qgr69k0o13/Problem%20Finding%20and%20Solution%20Development.JPG
Video:https://www.dropbox.com/s/eynllk7thus0s00/Report%20Out%20and%20Presentation.mp4
Team 5 - "$mart & $avvy $pending"
Trends:https://www.dropbox.com/s/69n00siofpdk6kb/Trends%2C%20Scenario%20and%20Storytelling.JPG
Scenario and Storytelling:https://www.dropbox.com/s/69n00siofpdk6kb/Trends%2C%20Scenario%20and%20Storytelling.JPG
Problem Finding and Solution Development:https://www.dropbox.com/s/1h7rbhmtidkyhnp/Problem%20Finding%20and%20Solution%20Development.JPG
Video:https://www.dropbox.com/s/jrvfqi2dgr3r17j/Report%20Out%20and%20Presentation.mp4
https://www.dropbox.com/s/99argj0zm0yutx0/Trends%2C%20Scenario%20and%20Storytelling.JPGhttps://www.dropbox.com/s/ywopheva23exedj/Scenario%20and%20Storytelling.JPGhttps://www.dropbox.com/s/0jqoxnrho5py9ke/Problem%20Finding%20and%20Solution%20Development.JPGhttps://www.dropbox.com/s/8dozvauq968atd4/Report%20Out%20and%20Presentation.mp4https://www.dropbox.com/s/solsc40abt7nzwj/Trends%2C%20Scenario%20and%20Storytelling.JPGhttps://www.dropbox.com/s/solsc40abt7nzwj/Trends%2C%20Scenario%20and%20Storytelling.JPGhttps://www.dropbox.com/s/47209qgr69k0o13/Problem%20Finding%20and%20Solution%20Development.JPGhttps://www.dropbox.com/s/eynllk7thus0s00/Report%20Out%20and%20Presentation.mp4https://www.dropbox.com/s/69n00siofpdk6kb/Trends%2C%20Scenario%20and%20Storytelling.JPGhttps://www.dropbox.com/s/69n00siofpdk6kb/Trends%2C%20Scenario%20and%20Storytelling.JPGhttps://www.dropbox.com/s/1h7rbhmtidkyhnp/Problem%20Finding%20and%20Solution%20Development.JPGhttps://www.dropbox.com/s/99argj0zm0yutx0/Trends%2C%20Scenario%20and%20Storytelling.JPGhttps://www.dropbox.com/s/jrvfqi2dgr3r17j/Report%20Out%20and%20Presentation.mp4https://www.dropbox.com/s/3ozthnhzrym5bqy/Problem%20Finding%20and%20Solution%20Development.JPGhttps://www.dropbox.com/s/6chqm04omlf8d4z/Report%20Out%20and%20Presentation.mp4https://www.dropbox.com/s/t6vou7v3xti62ts/Trends.JPGhttps://www.dropbox.com/s/n2iuj4n6ayz14dm/Scenario%20and%20Storytelling.JPGhttps://www.dropbox.com/s/a1t7tvmcnqhkhea/Problem%20Finding%20and%20Solution%20Development.JPGhttps://www.dropbox.com/s/bhk6q0zjv0qya8o/Report%20Out%20and%20Presentation.mp4https://www.dropbox.com/s/h10vtbdwhvveu3a/Trends.JPG
-
Identifying new business models
Feeding the Strategic Planning Process
"The Next Gen Auto" Business Model EvaluationExternal Ecosystem Partners Channels (HW and SW)
Internal Ecosystem Partners Channels (Services)
Value Proposition Customer Segments
Cost Structure Revenue Streams
LessStress
Voice recognition f or key serv ices (y elp,
phone, maps)
Seemless sharing of
music,photos, data
Indiv idualCustomization
Access to personal
music, v ideo,
Sav eTime
Improv ed saf ety:can see/sense
Cool Factor
Makes driv ing more
Allows driv er to beproductiv e while
driv ing w/o compromising
Helpssustain resale
v alue of car
Priv ate data manager (driv ing stats)
Trav el route
planning
Internaldev eloped HW & SW
OEM Dealer
Platf orm(2-sided)
connecting data f rom
automobile to serv ice
prov iders
Serv ice Prov ider
End User
Serv ice prov iders pay f or
data
Support and Maintenance contract with
OEM
OEM pay s f or Si/SW
and Integration
3rd partyHW
Vendors
3rd party SW Vendors Gv t
Serv ice Prov iders
ODMs and Mf g Supply
Radio Suppliers
Stds & Certs/Regs
ContentProv iders
SW Suppliers (Hi v alue add)
Security Company
Media Serv ices
Data Analy tics
Radio Suppliers
Internal Group 1
IntGroup
2
Int Group
3
Int Group
4
Int Group
5
Int Group
6
IntGroup
7
July '11 Env Assessment
ASD Environmental Assessment Map - July 2011 (Intel Confidential - Internal Use Only)
201320142015201620172018201920202020+
End Users - Drivers
End Users - Passengers
Emerging Markets
Government
Services and Applications
Technology
Competition
Value Chain / Ecosystem
Relatively Certain: Yellow Uncertain: Green
Green
Yellow
End users can manage thire home energy, networking/gateway from their car
Start safe IM, Texting, Tweeting
Location based targeted advertising delivered to devices based on location
Gvt limits text/multimedia UI for driver
Drivers require voice recognition (C + C)
User profiles/data are stored in the cloud
Entertainment profiles/data are stored in the cloud
US and EU unable to agree on connected car secuirity and privacy regs. Go sepeate ways in developing stds
Better UI (contextual recog, gesture, face reg) for automotives
Connected car is mobile device connecting hub -must serve as a connectivity dock
Drivers want same experience/access to apps and content on all devices
Face recognition basis for personalized car experience
Passenger profiles for favorite songs, apps, etc
Tablet adoption takes off in emerging markets
US DOT mandates DSRC radios
Superior input device for drivers emerges
Voice and gesture become dominant command inputs for broad array of driver functions
I create my own apps and services (highly personal and custom)
Majority of consumers store/access a significant portion of personal date files in the cloud
My digital life is in the cloud (any device/anywhere access)
China will develop own IVI Si
Gvt requires increased % recycleability
Consumers refuse/resist stand-alone subscriptions for services
Car timesharing (vs single ownership) becomes wide spread in emerging markets
Driverless becomes major mode of transportation
China establishes 20% market share in US and EMEA
Smart cities take off - requires fewer cars
DOTs establish high speed lanes for autonomous driving - cars only
Cars drive themselves
Device physical forms completely disappear & human machine interactions change radically
Form factor (interface and portability dominate user experience
Domestic Chinese OEM passes Toyota in WW production
Servive providers want to monetize assets: NW infrastructure, cust relations, info
Remote diagnostics services for high end cars
60+% mobile NW traffic is video - HD and interactive
Cars can self clean - also have a fridge and garbage disposer
First law passes requiring voice control for IVI
Gvt requires ADAS
Gvt mandates our use of electric/environmental safe cars
Connectivity becomes ubiquitous
Integrated and synchronized apps are common
Intel sells software and services decoupled from HW that can be used on any HW architecture
ECU consolidation factor of 10
Internet access option for all mid/high cars
Connected games for passengers
Media can be shared, downloaded from home cloud or server cloud
Adaptive heads up display goes mainstream
Autopilot features in over 25% of cars
Car to car and car to infrastructure communication for safety emerges
Remote diagnostics pervasive
End users can manage, connect to and share all their data (music/files) from their car
China, Brazil and India become large emerging markets demanding high-end systems in their cars
China total fleet hits 100 million
Modular construction of behicles (TATA) provides 'plug-in' opportunity
Gvt makes handheld device use in cars illegal
EU mandates e-call
Gvts all over the world discourage car ownership
Internet in car starts
Pay as you drive insurance becomes mainstream in US
Appls need to be introduced and scaled faster
RSS feeds for car
Increasing distracted driver accidents along w/ineffective enforcement means increased regulatory pressure on suplly chain to enact controls and automated detection for device usage infractions
Natural language processing becomes integral to the car experience
Gvts WW require controlled/limited mobile device operation in vehicles due to fatalities
Car's IVI bexomes master & Commander of mobile devices in car
Pervasive remote access/control to car
Use-based revenue generater favored by govt
Driver profile to customize display and controls
Semi-autonomous driving cars in production
Affordable personal transport for EM countries leads to further productivity growth and shifts from urban centers
Service will be >50% of ecosystem, Si
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The Strategic Roadmapping Life Cycle
Webinar #3Nov 12th
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Lessons learned Storytelling gets better when you force the team to tell the
story from the point of view of the end user and/or customer
Team continuity & video taping the report outs Challenge of new businesses models
Business model canvas to envision ecosystem and to drive operational plans
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Questions
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Irene J. Petrick, managing director of TrendScape Innovation Group and former Penn State University professor, is an internationally recognized expert in strategic roadmapping. She is actively engaged with companies in their innovation and technology strategy activities, including work with 12 Fortune 100 companies, the U.S. military, and a wide variety of small- to medium-sized enterprises. She has over 25 years of experience in technology planning, management, and product development in both academic and industrial settings. Irene is author or co-author on more than 150 publications and presentations. [email protected]
Russ Martinelli, managing director of TrendScape Innovation Group is engaged with companies in the areas of business strategy development, business model evaluation, ecosystem development, and technology roadmapping. He has over 20 years of experience in strategy development; portfolio management; new product development program management; and engineering in the high-tech, aerospace and defense, medical, and non-profit industries. Russ is the co-author of multiple books including Program Management for Improved Business Results, and Leading Global Project Teams, and over 60 articles and publications. [email protected]
mailto:[email protected]
The Power of Problem Finding and StorytellingReviewing the Strategic Roadmapping Life CycleSlide Number 3Slide Number 4Many trends some more important than othersSlide Number 6Slide Number 7Slide Number 8Slide Number 9Slide Number 10Slide Number 11Slide Number 12Slide Number 13Slide Number 14Slide Number 15Slide Number 16The Strategic Roadmapping Life CycleSlide Number 18Slide Number 19The Strategic Roadmapping Life CycleLessons learnedSlide Number 22Slide Number 23