Road Transport – Problem Diagnosis€¦ · Road Traffic + Road Traffic Injuries. Congestion +...
Transcript of Road Transport – Problem Diagnosis€¦ · Road Traffic + Road Traffic Injuries. Congestion +...
IIT Delhi 2007
Road Traffic
+ Road Traffic Injuries
Congestion
+ Atmospheric Pollution
+ Noise+
Vibration
Road Transport – Problem Diagnosis
Life span Obesity Sleep BP School
FRIENDS & URBAN TRANSPORT
IIT Delhi 2007
3.0 friends
5.3 acquaintances
1.3 friends
4.1 acquaintances
0.9 friends
3.1 acquaintances
Light traffic
2,000 v/day
Moderate
8,000 v/day
Light traffic
16,000 v/day
Source: Dr.Carlos Dora
IIT Delhi 2007
More sustainability issuesMore sustainability issues
IIT Delhi December 07
Evidence from traffic interventions Narrow solutions: limited results
Continuing Traffic Growth Has Cancelled Out Pollution Savings from Cleaner and More Efficient Vehicles
• Cars are becoming heavier and more powerful.
• Trips are becoming increasingly long.
• Total kilometers traveled by road continues to grow
EC: Transport in Figures, 2000
IIT Delhi 2007Source: Dr.Carlos Dora
IIT Delhi December 07
Death rate for Tuberculosis, 1860-1960, United States, Source: US Bureau of the Census, Historical Statistics of the United States; Colonial Times to 1970 (Washington, D.C: Government Printing Office, 1975), Part 1 pp58,63. Note: Data between 1860 and 1900 for Massachusetts only.
IIT Delhi December 07
Death Rates for Measles in Children Under Age 15, England and Wales, 1850-1970
Source: Thomas McKeown, The Modern Rise of Population (Academic Press, San Francisco, 1976), pp. 93, 96. IIT Delhi December 07
World cities - factsCars/100 person
0
51015
20
2530
3540
London S’pore H.Kong Delhi
Trips per person per day
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
London (.95) S’pore (.96) H.Kong (1.14) Delhi (.73)
MRT Bus
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Similar road space except H’Kong
IIT Delhi December 07
17 20
4125 29
18 8
527
4542
60 29
4011
237
258 15
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
London New York Tokyo Singapore Hong Kong *
Percent share
Metro + Rail Bus Car + MTW NMT
EVIDENCE FROM LARGE RICH CITIES
IIT Delhi December 07
EVIDENCE FROM LARGE RICH CITIES
BRT productivity vs city population
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 5 10 15 20Population, million
Pas
s/da
y/km
, th
ousa
nd
BRT productivity vs per-capita income
0
510
1520
25
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000Per capita income US$/year (country)
Pas
s/da
y/km
, th
ousa
nd
Metro productivty vs city population
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 5 10 15 20Population, million
Pas
s/da
y/km
, th
ousa
nd
Metro productivity vs per-capita income
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000Per capita income US$/year (country)
Pas
s/da
y/km
, th
ousa
nd
Metro productivity vs system length
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 100 200 300
Total length, km
Pas
s/da
y/km
, th
ousa
nd
BRT productivity vs system length
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 50 100 150Total length, km
Pas
s/da
y/km
, th
ousa
nd
IIT Delhi December 07
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70 B
risto
l, U
K
Lee
ds, U
K
Nan
tes,
Fra
nce
Hel
sink
i,Fi
nlan
d
Mar
seill
e,Fr
ance
Edi
nbur
gh, U
K
New
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le, U
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Bru
ssel
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um
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nkfu
rt,
Ger
man
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Stu
ttga
rt,
Ger
man
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Am
ster
dam
,N
eth'
s
Perc
ent
Car + MTW PT W&C
EVIDENCE FROM MEDIUM RICH CITIES
IIT Delhi 2006
Conundrum – Public transport in large cities < $ 10,000 pc/y
How do we
Reduce trip lengths ?
Reduce number of trips ?
Reduce motor vehicle use ?
Increase walking and bicycling ?
Increase public transport use ?
Select public transport technology ?
Only 7% drive in
Mexico city
2616 17 18
5
6 3 5
635
5355
4521
108
18 22 17 14
1986 1989 1994 2000
Private vehicles Taxi Minibus & collectivo Large bus / light rail Metro
Just provision of high capacity systems does not provide
solutions
World cities - facts
Main mode to work in Mumbai, India
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
TrainPublic Bus
Auto-RickshawCar
Two-WheelerBicycle
Walk
Percent
All commuters Low income
IIT Delhi 2006
Transport mo des in S ingapo re
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Bus
M e tro
Bus + M e tro
Car
Car + M e tro
M TW
Taxi
W alk/b ike
Pe rce nt
W orkers Students
All infrastructure investments
IIT Delhi December 07
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Metro BRT Car Bicycle Walk
Tim
e, m
inut
es
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Metro BRT Car Bicycle
Tim
e, m
inut
es
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Metro BRT Car
Tim
e, m
iniu
tes
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Metro BRT Car
Tim
e, m
inut
es
Walking to station/veh Walking in station Waiting at stationJourney in vehicle Walking to destination Congestion (car)One change
3 km 6 km
12 km 24 km
IIT Delhi 2007
High rise buildings, congestion necessary for Metro
Hong Kong
Tokyo
New York
“Feeder trip” in lifts
Only way large number close to destination
Metros run empty in less dense cities
What kind of a city do we want ?
IIT Delhi 2007
020406080
100120140160
Car Bus Metro Light rail
Peak capacity 40% capacity
CO2 emissions per passenger km
Potential Environment Benefits
15000
16000
17000
18000
19000
20000
21000
22000
23000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2010 2025
年期
排放量 ( 噸 /日 )MRT
BRT
CO2 (tons/day)
Elevated Expressway
Modern city characteristics
IIT Delhi 2007
Relatively low rise development with planned multiple business districtsVery high ownership of motorised two wheelers, especially in Asia. About 70 percent of families in Delhi own a motorised vehicle Marginal cost of operating a motorised two-wheeled vehicle is about Rs 0.75 per km at 2005 prices. This determines the maximum fare box levels for public transportMost cities are expanding in a radial mode and are not likely to develop one concentrated high density business district in the foreseeable futureMost cities have mixed land use patterns and we are not likely to succeed in implementing strict zoning for land use, even if it were desirable
THEREFORE, THERE IS NO NEED FOR VERY CAPACITY TRANSIT SYSTEMS
Metros, congestion and the environment
Reviews of the metro systems around the world conclude that rail based systems do not reduce congestion or improve the environment
“None of the systems (rail based) appear to have reduced the problems caused by the car…None of them caused a decline in overall bus usage…None of the systems caused reduction in car usage, congestion relief, or improve air quality”Mackett R. and Sutcliffe, E. B. New urban rail systems: a policy-based technique to make them more successful, Journal of Transport Geography, 11:151–164, 2003.
IIT Delhi 2007
Finances - Delhi example
Cost of 60 km project – 12,000 crores
Opportunity cost – Rs 1,200 crores per year for ever
Assumption 5% interest rateAssumption 5% depreciation rate
Current ridership : ~ 5 lakh passengers per day (20% of expected ridership)
Subsidy per passenger not counting operating costs :
IIT Delhi 2006
Rs. 30 – 40 thousand per passenger per year
Kolakata Metro: Operating at 10% projected capacity after 20 years
IIT Delhi 2007
Fatality risk in traffic crashes in US citiesCities within the same state have different crash rates - San
Diego and San Jose in California
Cities have different patterns - San Francisco has a higher rate for pedestrians and Los Angeles has a higher rate for vehicles
One city can have the a zero rate of fatalities (East Los Angeles CDP) and another city in the same state with a similar population have one of the highest rates (San Bernardino, CA)
Columbia Ann Arbor
Pop: 116,278 Ped: 5.16 MV: 16.63 Pop: 114,024 Ped: 0 MV: 0.0
Urban block, bus stop and road design
IIT Delhi 2007
Walking speed:
1 m/s
Pedestrian phase:
~20s
Carriageway:
< 25 m
Urban Block
< 1000 m
Bus stop
At junction
Why BRTS ?
Shortest planning & construction time BRT - 1.5 years / Metro - 7 years (~18km)
Shortest planning & construction time BRT - 1.5 years / Metro - 7 years (~18km)
Efficient utilization of road spaceEfficient utilization of road space
COST CONSIDERATIONSCOST CONSIDERATIONS
BRT5-20
crores / km
Metro100 to
200crores / km
Taipei, Taiwan
Creative use of lane space
BRTS Benefits• state-of-the-art mass transit system
at a fraction of the cost of other options.
• Bus Rapid Transit utilizes central lanes on arterials roads
• No friction with other vehicles• Not affected by traffic jams• Lanes can be used by police in
extreme emergencies• In operation in cities of all sizes
BRT : CAR 1 WAY, BUS ONE WAY ROW ~ 15 m
Pedestrian path 2 m x 2 Bus lane 3.3 - 3.5 mCar lane 3.0 m
Bicycle lane 2 m
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BRT : CAR 1 WAY 2 LANES, BUS ONE WAY ROW ~ 18 m
Pedestrian path 3 m x 2mBus lane 3.3 - 3.5 mCar lane 3.0 m X 2
Bicycle lane None
IIT Delhi September 07
BRT : CAR 1 WAY, BUS ONE WAY ROW ~ 10 m
Pedestrian path 2 mBus lane 3.3 - 3.5 mCar lane 3.0 m
Bicycle lane None
IIT Delhi September 07
BRT : CAR 1 WAY 2 LANES, BUS TWO WAY ROW ~ 30 - 35 m
Pedestrian path 4 m x 2Bus lane 3.3 - 3.5 m x 2Car lane 3.0 m x 2
Bicycle lane 2m x 2
IIT Delhi September 07
BRT : CAR 2 WAY 2 LANES, BUS TWO WAY ROW ~ 30 - 35 m
Pedestrian path 4 m x 2Bus lane 3.3 - 3.5 m x 2Car lane 3.0 m x 4
Bicycle lane Mixed
IIT Delhi September 07
IIT Delhi 2007
CONCERNS
FARE BOX LIMITED BY MARGINAL COST OF TWO-WHEELER USE, EXCEPT FOR LUXURY BUSES
About Rs 1.00 per km at 2007 prices
>>>>> Minimise cost of bus
Design must be flexible enough for future developments in technology – especially ITS
Design must maintain the flexible nature of BRT
Toyota’s new Intelligent Multimode Transit System (IMTS), driverless vehicles that move together automatically in a platoon formation on dedicated roads, as well as manual and independent operation as buses on ordinary roads. The system features the punctuality, high speed and large passenger capacity of conventional rail based systems and the economic efficiency and flexibility buses serving regular routes
IIT Delhi 2007
This makes it possible to directly link central cities with outlying regions, without requiring the passengers to switch buses. The system can be operated flexibly and efficiently according to changes in transportation demand, and at the same time can dramatically reduce the high construction and maintenance costs associated with conventional track-based systems
IIT Delhi 2007
30 minutes a day of Physical Activity is enough to reduce:
• By 50 % the risk of developing coronary hearth disease,
• By 50% the risk of developing non- insulin-dependent diabetes and obesity.
– By 30 % the risk of developing hypertension.
– The risk of colon /breast cancer.
– Helping to maintain bone mass and protecting against osteoporosis.
– Increases self-esteem, and promoting overall psychological well-being.
IIT Delhi 2007Source: Dr.Carlos Dora
HOW TO MAKE CITIES LIVEABLE AND SUSTAINABLE
According to latest issue of Current Science Indian cities face warming, more pollution, and water shortageMotor vehicles have killed more than 20-30 million people and injured > 500 million worldwideThis is not sustainableEmissions will reduce significantly only if more people walk, bicycle and use public transportOnly possible if walking and bicycling made saferCities will aesthetic, humane and human scale only if streets include large numbers of people walking and playing safelyOnly possible if streets free from crime – only possible if most streets have business and/or street vendors
IIT Delhi 2007
Therefore roads free from accidents and crime are necessary for cleaner air