Road Safety Management Process. Module 4-1 Roadway Safety Management Process Network Screening...
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Transcript of Road Safety Management Process. Module 4-1 Roadway Safety Management Process Network Screening...
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Road Safety Management Process
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Module 4-1
Roadway Safety Management Process
4
5
6
7
8
9
Network
Screening
Diagnosis
Countermeasure Selection
Economic
Appraisal
Prioritization of
Improvement Projects
4 5 6 7 8 9
Safety Effectiveness
Evaluation
Network
Screening
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Module 4-1
Methods for Identifying Sites
The identification, examination and effective treatment of well-chosen sites will yield safety improvements…
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Module 4-1
Methods for Identifying Sites
Goal – Identify and rank “sites with promise” • Those sites that, if treated, will experience decreases in
crashes
Example methods• Public involvement? Political pressure?
• High crash frequency history
• High crash rate
• Severity-weighted frequency (based on crash costs)
• Excess crashes
• Etc.
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Module 4-1
Example: Excess Crashes
Compare actual crashes to expected crashes for this category of sites (e.g., two-lane rural intersections)
More details in Unit 4
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Module 4-1
Network Screening
Identify sites that may benefit the most from a treatment
Establish Focus• Specific crash types (e.g., wet weather crashes)• Specific facility types (e.g., intersections)• Specific area/corridor
Select reference population• Groups of sites with similar characteristics
Select performance measures
Select screening method and do the screening
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Module 4-1
Performance Measures
13 performance measures listed in the Highway Safety Manual
Range from very simple measures based on average crash frequency to advanced measures based on the empirical Bayes method
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Module 4-1
How to Select a Performance Measure?
Data Availability• Is traffic volume data available?
• Are Safety Performance Functions available? If no, can they be estimated?
Does the performance measure account for Regression-to-the-Mean Bias
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Module 4-1
How to Identify Sites with Promise?
Expected Number of Crashes
Excess Expected Difference compared to the average for comparable sites (also called deviation from the norm)
• Can be used Identify deviant sites
Can use empirical Bayes method to estimate expected crashes
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Module 4-1
Determining deviant sitesC
rash
es p
er U
nit T
ime
Traffic Volume
A
Expected crashes (based on EB method)
SPF representing average for comparable sites (norm)
Excess
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Module 4-1
Diagnosis
Crash Factors
• Human
• Roadway
• Vehicle
• Environmental
Collision Type
• Run-off Road
• Rear End
• Head On
• Sideswipe Same Direction
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Module 4-1
Site Review Methods
Engineering Road Safety Audits• Immediate improvements (maintenance)
• Low cost safety improvements
• High cost safety improvements
Crash history• Collision diagram
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Module 4-1
Example Collision Diagram
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Module 4-1
Motives for Action
Economic Efficiency
Professional and Institutional Responsibility
Fairness
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COUNTERMEASURE SELECTION
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Module 4-1
Tools For Identifying Countermeasures
Engineering studies
Road safety audits
The Australian Safe Systems Approach
The Haddon matrix
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Module 4-1
Step 1: Examine the Crash Data
Step 2: Conduct a Field Study
Step 3: Identify Potential Countermeasures
Step 4: Prioritize Countermeasures
Step 5: Implement the Chosen Countermeasure(s)
Step 6: Evaluate the countermeasure impact
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Engineering Studies
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Module 4-1
Road Safety Audits
Used for Roadway Corridors, Both Existing and New (Canada)
Characteristics of RSAs• A formal examination with a structured process;
• Conducted independently by professionals who are not currently involved with the project;
• Completed by a team of qualified professionals representing appropriate disciplines;
• Focuses solely on safety issues; and
• Examines the transportation site with respect to all potential road users.
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Module 4-1
The Australian “Safe Systems Approach”
How?• Safer vehicles
• Safety roads and roadsides
• Controlling speeds
Can’t Prevent All Crashes
But Try To Assure No Serious Injuries or Deaths
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Module 4-1
The Haddon Matrix
Crash-Related Factor Categories • Human
• Vehicle
• Roadway
• Environmental
Crash Time• Pre Crash
• Crash
• Post Crash
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Module 4-1
The Haddon Matrix (cont.)
Can be use to • Categorize existing treatments to identify cells with few
• Categorize factors (e.g., fatigue, ambulance delay) to generate new treatments.
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Element Pre Crash Crash Post Crash
Human
Vehicle/Equipment
Road/Physical Environment
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Module 4-1
The Haddon Matrix -- Exercise1. Graduated Drivers Licensing
2. Airbags
3. Driver risk-taking propensity
4. Seat Belt Use
5. Distance to hospital
6. Electronic stability control
7. Driver age
8. Emergency Med. Svs. Training
9. GPS automatic crash notification
10. Rumble strips
11. Median barrier
12. Distance to roadside object
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Element Pre Crash Crash Post Crash
Human
Vehicle/Equipment
Road/Physical Environment
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Module 4-1
The Haddon Matrix (cont.)
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Element Pre Crash Crash Post Crash
HumanGDL
Risk Taking
Driver Age
Seat Belt Use Driver Age
Vehicle/Equipment
Electronic Stability Airbags GPS Auto-Notification
Road/Physical Environment
Rumble Strips
Distance to Object
Median Barrier
Distance to Object
Distance to Hospital
EMS Training
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Module 4-1
Sources for Potential Countermeasures
Roadway Countermeasures
• NCHRP Series 500
• Highway Safety Manual, Part D
• FHWA Crash Modification Factor Clearinghouse
• FHWA list of suggested (proven) countermeasures
NCHRP Report 617, Accident Modification Factors for Traffic Engineering and ITS Improvements
Behavioral Countermeasures
• Countermeasures That Work
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Module 4-1
Countermeasure Sources:NCHRP Series 500 Guides
Countermeasures classified as:1. Proven, 2. Tried, or3. Experimental
Examples:• Relocate roadside objects (P)• Install shoulder rumble strips (T)• Delineate poles with
retroreflective tape (E)
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Module 4-1
Countermeasure Sources:Highway Safety Manual First edition released in
2010
Provides practitioners with the best factual information and tools regarding safety consequences of design decisions.
Sections• Part A: Safety knowledge
• Part B: Safety management
• Part C: Crash prediction models
• Part D: Countermeasure selection and CMFs
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Module 4-1
Countermeasure Sources:Crash Modification Factors Clearinghouse
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Module 4-1
Countermeasure Sources:FHWA Suggested Countermeasures (2008) Road safety audits Rumble strips and
rumble stripes Median barriers Safety edge Roundabouts Left and right turn
lanes at stop-controlled intersections
Yellow and all red change intervals at traffic signals
Median and pedestrian refuge areas in urban and suburban areas
Walkways
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Module 4-1
Countermeasure Sources:NHTSA “Countermeasures That Work”
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Module 4-1
Question
When faced with many potential countermeasures, how does one choose which one(s) to implement?
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Module 4-1
Comparing Countermeasures
Subjective comparisons• Which will garner the most public support?
• Which is most appropriate for the area?
Objective comparisons• Expected effectiveness -> decreases in crashes (CMFs)
• Expected costs -> installation and maintenance
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Module 4-1
Market Research for Targeting Countermeasures
Identifying sub-population characteristics
Easing language barriers
Customizing campaigns and programs
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Module 4-1
Market Research Techniques
What types of market research techniques can be used to target high crash risk groups?
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Module 4-1
Market Research Techniques
Focus groups
Surveys
Observational studies
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Cost Effectiveness of Alternative CountermeasuresPrioritize interventions and countermeasures based on effectiveness.
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Module 4-1
Major Topics
Countermeasure Costs and Benefits
Programming Projects
Qualitative Considerations
Countermeasure Evaluation
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Module 4-1
Countermeasure Costs
Startup or installation costs• Example?
Ongoing operational or maintenance costs• Example?
Resilience/staying power (“usable life”)• Which countermeasures would have shorter staying
power? Which would be longer?
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Module 4-1
Countermeasures Benefits
Crashes prevented – use CMFs to estimate if available
Changes in crash severity• Signals and red light cameras
• Cable median barriers
Other benefits not related to safety (e.g., reduced delay)
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Module 4-1
Countermeasure Benefits:Crash Modification Factors Crash modification factor (CMF) is a multiplicative
factor used to compute the expected number of crashes after implementing a given countermeasure at a specific site.
CMF =
CMF > 1 indicates an expected increase in crashes
CMF < 1 indicates an expected decrease in crashes
Expected crashes with countermeasure
Expected crashes without countermeasure
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Module 4-1
Countermeasure Benefits: Issues in developing CMFs Isolating specific treatments or populations
Data availability• Detailed data not collected (e.g., installation date, etc)
• Countermeasure not installed anywhere yet
Time
Money
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Module 4-1
Countermeasure Benefits: Tools and Resources for CMFs Highway Safety Manual
CMF Clearinghouse
SafetyAnalyst
The Interactive Highway Safety Design Model (IHSDM)
NCHRP Report 622, Effectiveness of Behavioral Highway Safety Countermeasures
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Module 4-1
Countermeasure Benefits: Assigning Monetary Value to Crashes Prevented
Complex Process
Rules of Thumb
Fatal plus Serious Injury vs. minor injury plus PDO Costs
Cost Effectiveness
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Module 4-1
Countermeasure Benefits: Example Crash Costs
Killed – K $4,008,900
Disabling Injury – A $216,000
Evident Injury – B $79,000
Possible Injury – C $44,900
Property Damage Only – O $7,400
Source: Highway Safety Manual, First Edition, Draft 3.1, April 2009.
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Module 4-1
Benefit and Cost Analysis
Striving for the most effective use of limited safety funds (“bang for the buck”)
Rank competing projects
Methods• Benefit-cost ratio
• Present value of benefits
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Module 4-1
Example Benefit-Cost Ratios
http://www.dot.state.mn.us/trafficeng/otepubl/fundamentals/safetyfundamentals.pdf
Countermeasure benefits
Countermeasure costsBenefit-cost ratio =
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Module 4-1
Project Programming Techniques
Ranking
Weighting
Linear Programming
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Module 4-1
Other (Qualitative) Considerations
What are other considerations that can play a role in which countermeasures are implemented?
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Module 4-1
Other (Qualitative) Considerations
Design Standards
Tradeoffs
Familiarity
Constituent Concerns
How do we integrate these into science-based safety decisions?
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Module 4-1
Post-Implementation Evaluation
Evaluation is essential to establish countermeasure effectiveness
Funds should be set aside for scientific evaluation
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Module 4-1
Example Collision Diagram – After Countermeasure Was Installed
Crashes decreased. Was all of the decrease due to the conversion to all way stop?
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Module 4-1
Countermeasure Evaluation:A Limited Primer Methods for developing CMFs (i.e., evaluating
countermeasures)• Study of sites/groups where a treatment is implemented
(a “before-after” evaluation where a change has occurred)
• Comparison of some sites/subjects with treatment vs. other similar sites/groups without treatment (e.g., median widths)o No real change has occurredo Usually involves developing a predictive model with lots of factorso There are difficulties with developing true measure of the treatment
effect
We will just look at first type – evaluations where something really changed (i.e., a treatment was implemented)
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Module 4-1
Countermeasure Evaluation:Goal and False Causes
• Goal – Measure true effect of a countermeasureo We want to be sure that the observed change is due to the
countermeasure alone
• What other factors could cause the change?
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Module 4-1
Countermeasure Evaluation:Goal and False Causes
• Goal – Measure true effect of a countermeasureo We want to be sure that the observed change is due to the
countermeasure alone
• What other factors could cause the change?o Other “treatments” at the same time (e.g., primary seat-belt law at
the same time as adding a protected left-turn phase to intersections)
o Changes in AADTo Regression to the meano Underlying trends in crashes (e.g., economy-related changes)o Others
• So how do we control for/discount these other “causes”?
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Module 4-1
Countermeasure Evaluation:Controlling for Other Causes “Before vs. After” is misleading
Should be, “Estimated After (without treatment) vs. Observed After (with treatment).
How well we estimate the after (without treatment) crashes defines the strength of the evaluation
Different ways to estimate the after (without treatment) crashes• Use only the observed after treatment crashes (assume nothing
changes – weakest)
• Use of similar comparison groups to estimate (can use SPF prediction based on comparison group)
• Use of Empirical Bayes to estimate (weighted between predicted and observed)
• Randomly assign large group of similar sites to treatment or control group (like a drug study) and estimate based on non-treated control group
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Module 4-1
That’s all!• Lots of hard work in planning, collecting data, statistical
analysis and interpretation of results
• BUT, when you are reading evaluation reports, just remember:
The strength of the study results depends on how well After-Crashes Without Treatment were estimated!
Evaluation – Summary