Road Network Upgrading And Overland Trade Expansion In Sub-Saharan Africa Piet Buys Uwe Deichmann...
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Road Network Upgrading And Overland Trade Expansion In Sub-Saharan Africa Piet Buys Uwe Deichmann David Wheeler Development Research Group
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Transcript of Road Network Upgrading And Overland Trade Expansion In Sub-Saharan Africa Piet Buys Uwe Deichmann...
Road Network UpgradingAnd Overland Trade Expansion
In Sub-Saharan Africa
Piet BuysUwe DeichmannDavid Wheeler
Development Research Group
Dakar
Nouakchott
Banjul
ConakryFreetown
Monrovia
Bissau
Abidjan Accra
Lo
me
Co
ton
ou
Bamako
OuagadougouN’Djamena
Abuja
Yaoundé Bangui
Niamey
Libreville
BrazzavilleKinshasa
Khartoum
Asmara
Djibouti
Addis Ababa
KampalaNairobi
Mogadishu
Dar es Salaam
Luanda
Windhoek
LusakaLilongwe
Maputo
Harare
Bujumbura
Kigali
Gaborone
Maseru
Mbabane
Pretoria
Sub-Saharan Africa:Continental Capitals
& Cities>500,000 Population
Least-Distance Network:Total Length: 108,000 Km.
885 Road Segments3,403 Connected City Pairs
Our “Resumé”
PB, UD, DWOverland Travel
Quality Index GYP
jjjjGYPQ
Pj = Percent of roads paved Gj = GDP per capita Cj = CPIA governance index
[αP=0.8 , αY=0.2, αG=0.2]
Road Network;Current Network
Quality
Benefit – Cost Analysisfor Network Upgrading at Different Scales:
Using The Network ModelFor Road Improvement Strategy
• Continental• Regional• National• Sub-National (data permitting)
Economic Scale(Population xIncome Per Capita)
=
Network Trade Factors
• Economic Scale• Road Distance• Road Quality• Trade Agreements
Benefits: Trade Flows Between Cities & Countries
Estimating Trade Flows: Econometric Analysis via Gravity Modeling
)56.7(**10.2
)21.8(**92.1
)81.11(**45.1
)19.14(**73.1
)55.4(**69.2
ˆ
ij
ijjiij
ij
d
qMEAKT
Data Source: IMFDOT, 2000-2003Sample Size: 1128 Observations
Results: t-statistics in parentheses [** => 99% confidence]
Aij = Membership in WAEMU, CEMAC or EAC Ei = Exporter economic scale Mj = Importer economic scale qij = Quality index for the network road link
dij = Network road distance
Gravity Model Application: Projecting Network Trade Flows ($US)
1
2
3
4
5
Road Quality
Best
Worst
Program: Network Upgrade to Class 2
Gravity Model Application: Network Trade Flows ($US)
Current Total for SSA: $10 Billion
Gravity Model Application: Upgraded Network Trade Flows ($US)
Econometric Projection: $30 Billion
Gravity Model Application: Network Trade Flows ($US)
Program: Network Upgrade to Class 2
10.1
Current
Econometric Projection: Annual Trade ($Billion)
Upgraded
30.457.1
16.3
[+1 Std. Error]
[-1 Std. Error]
Cost: Econometric Analysis of Road Projects
1
2
3
4
5
Road Quality
Best
Worst
Program: Network Upgrade to Class 2
Data Source: World Bank ROCKS Database
Work Type Class # 10.0 25.0 50.0 75.0 90.0Grading Maintenance 3 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.9Routine Maintenance Maintenance 22 0.6 1.7 2.0 3.0 3.5Unsealed Preventive Maintenance
Maintenance 982.8 3.3 4.3 5.1 5.7
Bituminous Pavement Preventive Treatment
Maintenance 392.3 3.3 5.0 7.7 18.8
Gravel Resurfacing Maintenance 112 3.9 7.1 10.1 17.4 37.9Surface Treatment Resurfacing Maintenance 26 13.0 18.4 20.3 32.2 38.5Asphalt Mix Resurfacing Upgrading 27 22.7 39.2 54.7 70.4 95.1Reconstruction Upgrading 88 22.8 78.6 128.9 218.1 333.8Strengthening Upgrading 14 80.8 103.0 130.3 162.1 203.7Partial Widening Upgrading 1 136.0 136.0 136.0 136.0 136.0Upgrading Upgrading 35 53.0 109.1 262.5 331.1 473.3New Two-Lane Highway Upgrading 2 660.2 660.2 1,023.4 1,386.5 1,386.5Widening and Reconstruction Upgrading 3 989.1 989.1 1,331.1 1,568.4 1,568.4Total 470
Percentiles
Sub-Saharan Africa: 470 Road ProjectsCosts in $US ‘000/Km. of Improvement
Cost Function Estimation
Dependent Variable: Unit Improvement Cost
• Existing road condition (percent paved)• Wage (per capita income)• Governance (CPIA for accountability, corruption)• Rainfall (Daily mean for primary road network)• Regional controls (West, Central, East Africa)• Project type controls:
• 7 Upgrading categories• 6 Maintenance categories
Independent Variables:
Projection From Estimated Cost Function
Program: Network Upgrade to Class 2
Econometric Projection: Upgrade Cost ($Billion)
20.728.4
15.6
[+1 Std. Error]
[-1 Std. Error]
Upgrade
0.91.2
0.7
[+1 Std. Error]
[-1 Std. Error]
Maintenance
Trade Category
Annual Trade
Growth ($Bill.)
Upgrade Cost
Category
Upgrade Cost
($Billion)Maint. Cost
Category
Maint. Cost
($Bill.)
Total Trade
Growth ($Bill.)
Total Cost
($Bill.)Net
($Bill.)Low 6.2 High 28.4 High 1.2 77.5 43.4 34.1Low 6.2 Benchmark 20.7 Benchmark 0.9 77.5 32.0 45.6Low 6.2 Low 15.6 Low 0.7 77.5 24.4 53.2Benchmark 20.3 High 28.4 High 1.2 253.8 43.4 210.4
Benchmark 20.3 Benchmark 20.7 Benchmark 0.9 253.8 32.0 221.8Benchmark 20.3 Low 15.6 Low 0.7 253.8 24.4 229.4High 47.0 High 28.4 High 1.2 587.5 43.4 544.1High 47.0 Benchmark 20.7 Benchmark 0.9 587.5 32.0 555.6High 47.0 Low 15.6 Low 0.7 587.5 24.4 563.2
Network Upgrade Program:5-Year Upgrade; 10-Year Operation
