Road Map to a Sustainable Future

Dr. Kelly KissockDepartment of Mechanical and Aerospace EngineeringUniversity of Dayton

Sustainability What is “sustainability” and why is

everybody talking about it? This presentation is about

• Something that is unsustainable• Why it is important, and • What we can do about it

Hint: it’s the central challenge for your generation and the next 100 years.

What on Earth Are These?

   

World Energy Use

World Population

World Economic Output

Converting Heat to Work

Since pre-history we knew how to:

Work Heat

Industrial Revolution to:

Work Heat

Newcomen’s Steam Engine

~1712

Revolutionary Change

Transforms economy: textile production increases 150 fold and prices drop 90%

Transforms place: cities grow from 5% to 50%

Transforms family: parents leave home to work

Redimensions world: steam ship and railroad

Technology and population explode

Economic Explosion From 1700-

2000, per capita US/Europe income grows from $600 to $18,000 per year

Increases 30x!

Energy Revolution Creates Modern World

Single Most Important Event in Human History

We’ve Come a Long Way… Newcomen’s steam engine: 0.5% Watt’s steam engine: 1% Gasoline engines: 30% Coal Rankine cycles: 35% Turbines: 40% Diesel engines: 50% Combined-cycle turbine/Rankine engines:

60%

But Energy Conversion Largely Unchanged… 1. Use hydrocarbon fossil fuels

2. Employ combustion to release heat CH4+2 (O2) = CO2+2 (H20) 3. Convert heat to work via thermal

expansion

84% Of World Energy From Fossil Fuels

In U.S. 86% from non-renewable fossil fuels Source: U.S. D.O.E. Annual Energy Review 2005

Resource Constraints

M. King Hubbert

Hubbert’s 1956 Prediction: US Oil Production Will Peak in 1973

Actual U.S. Oil Production: Peaks in 1972

Source: www.ab3energy.com/hubbert.html U.S has 2% of world oil reserves.

Hubbert’s 1956 Prediction:World Oil Production Will Peak in 2000

Cambell’s 1998 Prediction: World Oil Will Peak in 2006

THE END OF CHEAP OIL, Colin J. Campbell and Jean H. Laherrère, Scientific American, March 1998

Kissock’s Prediction: World Oil Peaks in 2015 (if 1,800 BB)

“World Oil Resources’ 1994 brackets world reserves between 1,800 and 2,600 BB

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Year

BB

Hubbert Curve Actual

Kissock’s Prediction: World Oil Peaks in 2030 (if 2,600 BB)

“World Oil Resources’ 1994 brackets world reserves between 1,800 and 2,600 BB

Kissock’s Prediction: World Oil Peaks in 2045 (if 3,600 BB)

If reserves = (2 x 1,800 BB) due to “fracing” and “directional drilling”

Extreme Oil

“Oil sands and offshore drilling are both symptoms of the same problem: We’re running out of easy oil.”

Simon Dyer

Canada’s Oil Sands

Total resource ~ Saudi Arabia #1 source of imported oil for US (22%) GHG production 5% - 15% greater than domestic oil Surface mining (20%):

• Strip earth’s surface for black goo called bitumen; 2 tons of sand / barrel oil• 1 barrel bitumen generates 500 gallons of liquid tailings• Tailing ponds cover 50 square miles; 3 million gallons/day leak into surrounding watershed• 1,600 waterbirds died in a single tailing pond

In situ mining (80%):• Inject natural gas-heated steam into wells to drive bitumen to surface• Blend bitumen with natural gas liquids to transport and process

Deep Water Drilling Gulf of Mexico

• 6,000 wells• Progressively deeper water • Deepwater Horizon: 5,000 ft

water• Gulf produces 27% of U.S.

output (U.S. has 2% of world oil resources)

Source: http://coto2.files.wordpress.com/

Brazil’s Tupi Field:• 7,200 ft water + 15,000 ft

sandstone/rock salt• $1 million/day to operate

platform• Deep water rigs produce 6%

of world output

Source: http://revolutionaryfrontlines.files.wordpress.com/

World Natural Gas:Near Peak

Production

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Year

10^1

2 ft3

Hubbert Curve Actual

Peak production = 2018 Based on 6,044 TCF ‘World Dry Natural Gas Reserves’, Oil and Gas Journal,

IEA 2004

World Coal: Peak Production 2050?

Peak production = 2060 Based on 997,506 MT ‘World Estimated Recoverable Coal’, IEA 2004

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Year

10^6

tons

Hubbert Curve Actual

Consequences of Peak Fuel

Rising demand and falling supply:• increases fuel prices• reduces expendable income• increases trade deficits of oil-importing

countries• supports oil-rich regimes (Russia, Middle East,

Venezuela)

Environmental Perspective

“Using energy in today’s ways leads

to more environmental damage than

any other peaceful human activity.”

The Economist, 1990.

99% 95% 95%

73% 70%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

CO2 SO2 NOx VOC CO

95% Of Local/Regional Air Pollution from Fossil Fuels

Global CO2 Concentration

• Keeling Curve: Mauna Loa, Hawaii• 2005 Concentration: ~380 ppm

Coincident Global Warming

Hansen, J., “Is There Still Time to Avoid Dangerous Anthropogenic

Interference with Global Climate?”,

American Geophysical Union,

2005.

Even (N2 02) and Odd (CO2 CH4) Atmospheric Molecules

“Changing Climate”, Stephen Schneider, Scientific American, 10/1989

Historical Temperature/CO2 Correlation

“Changing Climate”, Stephen Schneider, Scientific American, 10/1989

Greenhouse Gas Trends

Intergovernmental Panelon Climate Change, 2001, “Summary for Policymakers”

Greenhouse Effect

John Tyndall 1860 Investigated if Earth’s atmosphere

acts as greenhouse N2 (80%): No O2 (19%): No CO2, H20, CH4 (<1%): Yes!

Planet Temperatures Without Atmospheres

(NASA)

Mercury Earth Venus

-19 C

-89 C

167 C

Planet Temperatures With Atmospheres

(NASA)

Mercury Earth Venus

-19 C

15 C

-89 C

167 C 167 C

464 C 96.5% CO2

<1% CO2

0% CO2

Result: Earth Quickly Warming

Hansen et al., Journal Geophysical Research

Warming Most Pronounced At Poles

“Changing Climate”, Stephen Schneider, Scientific American, 10/1989

Melting Polar and Greenland Ice Caps

Rising Sea Level & Low Elevation Flooding

And the List Goes On…

Drought Severe weather Mass extinctions (30% of species lose

range) Accelerating non-linear irreversible

process• Methane release from thawing “perma-

frost”• Lower albedo from decreasing ice cover…

Local News: 2011

Source: Sierra 12/2007

Cincinnati Days > 90 F 18 (Current) to 45 (Low Emissions) or 85 (High

Emissions)

Source: Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Midwest: Ohio, Union of Concerned Scientists, 2009

Midwest Spring Rainfall Increases 30% (High Emission)

Source: Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Midwest: Ohio, Union of Concerned Scientists, 2009

Debate?

Consensus view from:• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)• Every U.S. scientific body (NAS, AMS, AGU, AAAS)• Every G8 ‘National Academy of Science’

Literature review (Oreskes, Science, Vol. 306, 2004):• All scientific peer-reviewed journals from 1993 –

2004 with key words “climate change”.• Found 983 papers• NONE disagreed with consensus position

Running Out of Energy Resources While Atmosphere Filling Up

Fossil Fuel Resources

Economy

Energy Out

Atmosphere

Fossil Fuel

EnergyCO2 &

Pollution

Linear Model of Production

TechnicalBiological

Ecological Model of Production

Our Challenge: Sustainable Prosperity

Today

How Much How Fast? C = Pop x $/Pop x E/$ x C/E

Business as usual case 2000-2050• Pop increases by 1.5x• $/Pop increases by 4x• E/$ constant• C/E constant• C2050 = 1.5 Pop x 4 $/Pop x E/$ x C/E = 6 C2000

Carbon stabilization case • C2050 = 1.5 Pop x 4 $/Pop x (E/$) / 3 x (C/E) / 2 = C2000• 3x improvement in energy efficiency• 2x reduction in carbon intensity of energy

50% carbon reduction case • 6x improvement in energy efficiency• 2x reduction in carbon intensity of energy

Actual Progress? 2010 Carbon emissions increase 5.9%, largest annual

increase ever

C = Pop x $/Pop x E/$ x C/E

C2010 = X1 Pop x X2 $/Pop x X3 E/$ x X4 C/E = 1.059 C2009

US Carbon Stabilization Scenario

Kutscher, C., “Tackling Climate Change in the US”, Solar Today, March, 2007

California Story

California Energy Efficiency = 1 Billion Cars

US Energy Efficiency = 77% Demand for New Energy Services

US Energy Efficiency• National Lighting and Appliance Efficiency Standards

• Initially signed by President Reagan in 1987, updated many times since

• "Standards have been a bipartisan energy policy success story stretching across four decades and five presidencies.“

• “Existing standards reduced U.S. electricity use by 7 percent in 2010 and 14 percent by 2035 as consumers and businesses purchase new products compliant with the latest standards”

• “Updated standards by 2015 would reduce 2035 electricity use by another 7 percent.

• “A typical household's total electric bill over this period would be about 33% higher absent efficiency standards.”

• “The cost of more efficient products pays back in lower utility bills within about 3 years, with net benefits outweighing costs by 4 to 1.”

Source: “The Efficiency Boom: Cashing In on Savings from Appliance Standards” ACEEE 2012

US Energy Efficiency• Building Codes

• Residential Codes typically based on International Residential Code: 2000, 2003, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2012…"

• Commercial codes typically based on:• ASHRAE Standard 90.1: 1975, …, 2001, 2004, 2007,

2010…” or• International Energy Conservation Code: 2000, 2001,

2003, 2004, 2006, 2009, 2012…“• IECC 2012 results in 30% more energy savings in both residential

and commercial buildings than IECC 2006. This meets goal set forth by U.S. DOE

IECC 2012• IECC 2012 results in 30% more energy savings in both residential and

commercial buildings than IECC 2006. This meets goal set forth by U.S. DOE.

• Residential Changes• •A mandatory air infiltration test• •A mandatory duct leakage test• •Increased insulation and glazing efficiency• •Reduce wasting heated water: "short and skinny," and insulated pipes

• Commercial Changes• •Choose between high performance lighting, HVAC equipment, or onsite renewable

energy• •Requiring continuous air barriers for the building envelope• •A commissioning requirement for HVAC systems• •Increased insulation and glazing efficiency• •Mandated daylighting controls when window-to-wall ratio > 30%• •Mandating skylights/daylighting controls for certain buildings > 10,000 ft2 i• •Added efficiency requirements for cooling towers• •Increased minimum efficiency requirements for certain HVAC equipment• •Increased HVAC piping insulation provisions

Source: http://www.energycodes.gov/status/2012_Final.stm

Energy Efficiency: Lowest Cost Source of “New Power”

Source: A Risky Proposition, Union of Concerned Scientists, 2011

Reduce CO2 by 20% at Negative Cost

(i.e. while making money)

Source: Reducing U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions: How Much at What Cost?”, McKinsey and Company, December 2007

Net-zero CO2 Manufacturing Emissions

at Zero Additional Cost Base CO2 Emissions

• 5,600 t/yr Energy Efficiency

• Reduces CO2 by 960 t/yr (17%)• Saves $78,000 /yr with 48%

ROI Purchasing renewable elec

with efficiency savings• Reduces CO2 by 4,800 t/yr

(83%)• RECs cost $0.015 /kWh

Result• Net-zero CO2 emissions• At zero additional cost

Energy Efficient Manufacturing Initiatives

President Obama launches $500M Advanced Manufacturing Partnership, including $120 million to develop innovative manufacturing processes and materials to enable companies to cut the costs of manufacturing by using less energy.

DOE launches Superior Energy Performance (SEP), a plant-level energy efficiency certification program for industrial facilities.

DOE’s Industrial Assessment Centers provide no-cost energy audits to mid-sized manufactures.

Energy Efficient Buildings Initiatives

American Institute of Architects Sustainability 2030• 50% CO2 reduction in new buildings by 2010• Additional 10% energy 5 years until zero C02 by

2030.• Renovate new buildings for 50% CO2 reduction

American Society of Heating Refrigeration Air Conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE) • Standard 90.1-2010: 30% less energy than 90.1-

2004• Standard 90.1-2020: guidance for net zero site

energy use U.S. Department of Energy

• All commercial buildings are net zero energy by 2025

Energy Efficient Transportation Initiatives

Number of cars hits 1 billion

10 automakers launch plug-in hybrids by 2012

U.S. automakers agree to double fuel efficiency by 2025 to 54.5 mpg.

EPA announces first fuel efficiency standards for trucks and busses

Source: www.greenzer.com

State Renewable Electricity Standards

29 States and District of Columbia

MandatoryVoluntary

Source: Securing the Transition to a Clean and Sustainable Energy Economy, Deyette, J., Union

Concerned Scientists, 2011

Ohio: 12.5% of electricity from

renewable energy by

2025

Wind Energy In the U.S. Renewable energy

production surpasses nuclear in U.S.

Colorado generates 30% of elec from wind and solar: and has 14,000 renewable energy jobs

Iowa generates 20% of elec from wind

Wind energy provides more jobs than coal

Clean energy jobs pay 13% more than medium U.S. wages, and offer more secure future

North Dakota is “Saudi Arabia” of wind

Atlantic off-shore wind potential is 70% of all U.S. elec:

Google investing in undersea power cable for off-shore wind turbines

Wind Energy In the U.S. U.S. now 46,919 MW and

growing at > 30% /yr.

Wind responsible for 35% of all new generating capacity over the past 4 years, second only to natural gas, and more than nuclear and coal combined.

Today, U.S. wind power capacity represents more than 20% of the world's installed wind power.

Over 400 manufacturing facilities across the U.S. make components for wind turbines

Source: American Wind Energy Association

Wind Energy In Ohio Ohio kills proposed 960

MW Meigs coal plant

Builds 170 2-MW wind turbines on Ohio-Indiana border near Van Wert

State approves 91 2-MW turbines in north-central Ohio, to be operating by December 2012 and create 70-95 construction jobs and 10 permanent jobs.

Ninth wind farm certified. Combined certified total 662 turbines to generate 1,251 megawatts of electricity.

Van Wert, OH

Wind Turbine Evolution:Bigger and Taller (now 3 MW

each)

Design Advancements Lead to “Enormous Increase in Capacity

Factors”

Levelized Cost of Wind Energy Without PTC/MACRS

Levelized Cost of Wind Energy With PTC/MACRS

Growing Amounts of Wind Curtailment

Britain Has More Offshore Wind Capacity Than Rest Of World

Combined

World's largest offshore wind farm on the estuary of the Thames River 100 wind turbines, 300 megawatts, with 341 more turbines installed over the

next four years. Each turbine as tall as a 40-story building, "farm" covers 22 square miles. Britain now has more offshore wind capacity than the rest of the world

combined. Britain gets 3% of elec from renewables but aims to get 15% by 2020.

Solar Pricing

Recent Ohio NewsWest Chester Ikea plugs in solar panels

Business First Date: Wednesday, January 25, 2012, 7:36am EST

A Cincinnati-area Ikea store will use a 128,000-square-foot array of solar panels installed on its roof to light the store's lamps, the Cincinnati Business Courier reports.

The 344,000-square-foot West Chester store is Ikea's 14th in the U.S. to be outfitted with solar panels, and 23 other locations are getting them as well, the newspaper reports. In West Chester, the array has a 1,026-kilowatt system made with 4,186 individual panels, the newspaper reports.

The 1.3 million kilowatt hours of electricity that the panels are expected to generate each year is the equivalent of reducing 1,014 tons of carbon dioxide, or taking 180 cars off the road, the newspaper reports.

Ohio’s Clean Energy Economy Coal or Solar?

• Coal Production: WY #1, OH #11 at 5.6% of WY prod • CO2 emissions: OH #4• Ohio exports >$1B per year on coal purchases

• Solar Energy: AZ #1, OH #? At 71% of AZ solar Jobs

• Ohio #4 in clean energy jobs at 35,267 (2007)• Job growth 1998-2007: overall = -2.2%, clean energy

= 7.3%• Jobs per $1M: fossil fuels = 5.3, clean energy = 16.7• Sources: www.pewcenteronthestates.org,

www.nrdc.org

Mountaintop Removal Coal Mining

Pulverize mountaintop with explosives and push it into neighboring valley to expose coal.

In WV, 2000 miles of valleys filled in.

By end of decade 1.4 M acres.

Cancer rates in close towns 2x more distant towns.

University Initiatives: UD’s Renewable and Clean Energy Program Energy Efficiency

• Energy Efficient Buildings• Energy Efficient Manufacturing• Design of Thermal Systems• Building Energy Informatics

Renewable Energy• Renewable Energy Systems• Solar Energy Engineering• Wind Energy Engineering• Geothermal Energy Systems• Biofuel Engineering• Advanced Photovoltaics

“Our Choice”

Thank You for Listening!

Extra Slides

Beyond Coal and Nuclear: Not just eliminating something bad, but making room for something good

U.S.: 500 outdated and inefficient coal plants will be phased-out

Canada: phase out dirty coal plants beginning in 2014 Pacific Northwest: coal free by 2025 Renewable Energy Price of PV panels drops 70% between 2009-2012 Iowa gets 20% of electricity from wind Colorado gets 30% of electricity from wind and solar Clean Energy Economy Wind energy has more jobs than in coal Clean energy jobs pay 13% more than medium U.S. wages,

and offer more secure future Many jobs in manufacturing sector, hard hit by recession

But We Must Move Even Faster…

OECD / Non-OECD Contributions

Socolow and Pacala, Scientific American, September, 2006

Global Temperature Rise Current temp is 0.8 C

above 1750 temp Goal to limit temp

rise to 2.0 C On track for temp

rise of 6 C rise by end of century

Time Lags Amplify Effects

Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Summary, 2001

Manufacturing Efficiency??

1 kg paper requires 100 kg of resources 1 liter OJ requires 1,000 liters of water 1 semiconductor chip generates 100,000

times its mass in waste US industry mines, burns, pumps,

disposes of 4 M lb of material per family per year

Cost of Electricity Resources

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

EnergyEfficiency

PulverizedCoal

Coal IGCC Nuclear Nat. GasCombined

Cycle

Biomass Wind

Leve

lized

Cos

t of E

lect

ricity

(cen

ts/k

Wh)

w/o carbon w/ $20/ton carbon

Source: Elliott, R.N., “America’s Energy Straightjacket”, ACEEE Summer Study on Energy Efficiency, 2007.

U.S. CO2 Emissions 6 GT/yr Can reduce 1.3 GT/yr at Negative Cost

Source: Miller, P., 2000, “Saving Energy It Starts at Home”, National Geographic, March

Remarkably Energy Efficiency

• Increases business competitiveness• Increase resource availability• Increases environmental health

Energy Efficiency isTHE PATH TO THE NEW ENERGY EFFICIENT

ECONOMY

Government Programs U.S. Department of Energy

• Energy audits Whole plant energy audits by universities for mid-sized

manufacturers Steam, process heating, compressed air and pump

energy audits for large manufactures• Energy system software and best practice case

studies U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

• E3 energy, waste and productivity audits Ohio utilities must improve energy efficiency

by 20% by 2020• DPL, Duke, AEP offer rebates on energy efficient

equipment and retrofits.

International Standards

ISO Standards• 9001 Quality• 14001 Environment• 50001 Energy

Requires energy management personnel and organizations within a company to determine baseline energy use, determine energy efficiency targets, identify and implement energy efficiency opportunities, measure effectiveness of energy efficiency improvements.

Cost of Energy Efficiency

“25% of total electricity usage can be saved cost effectively, at an average of 3 cents or less per kWh.”

“New generation sources cost 5 cents or more per kWh, making efficiency the lowest cost electricity resource”

Source: American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy

Cost of Energy Efficiency

"Energy efficiency is … the cheapest and most efficient way to reduce emissions by the United States”

“Policymakers worldwide should make efficiency central to their efforts to reduce the emission and harmful impact of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.”

Source: “For Now, at Least, Efficiency May Be the Best Tool for Reducing Carbon Emissions, Experts Say”, American Association for Advancement of Science, 1/2010

How it Started 1976 SDGE wants to build new nuclear

plant to bridge gap between expected demand and supply

Art Rosenfeld tells Gov. Brown that energy efficiency standards on household refrigerators will save more energy than nuclear plant will generate.

California embarks on energy-efficiency path

California Today

Per capita energy use fourth lowest Emits half CO2 per $ as rest of U.S. Generates most renewable

electricity Most patents and most capital

invested in “cleantech” companies

Denmark Story 1973

99% of energy imported 80% of economy is agricultural

2009 Low-carbon energy-efficiency green-job

economy Control world wind turbine market 17% of energy from renewable energy Net energy exporter Meet Kyoto CO2 standards 3.7% unemployment Trade and fiscal surplus

Source: Arne Petersen, Ambassador of Denmark,Midwest Governor’s Association Forum on Jobs and Energy, 10/2009

United Kingdom Story• Implemented

Regulatory framework Incentives and penalties 7 fold increase in renewable energy

• “Want to be first movers..”• “Market is colossal”

Ultra low-carbon and electric vehicles Carbon capture and storage for all new plants by 2020.

• “Can and will be no return to high-carbon low-cost energy economy”

• “Utterly confident that we will achieve 80% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050.”

• “Stabilize bills by increasing efficiency while prices rise”

Source: Joan Ruddock, Energy Minister, United Kingdom,Midwest Governor’s Association Forum on Jobs and Energy,

10/2009

The US Story?

EEB Course GoalsLearn how to design buildings that are:

• Functional (traditional engineering course)• Economic (better engineering course)• Improve comfort / productivity

(enlightened engineering course)• E/3 (our course)

ASPO Prediction: World Oil Will Peak in 2007

Today’s Concentrations “Off the Chart”

Hansen, J., 2005, “A slippery slope: How much global warming constitutes “dangerous anthropogenic interference”?”, Climatic Change, Vol. 68, No. 3., 2005, Pages 269-279.

Transition to Sustainability Is Central Challenge of 21st Century

Pre-industrial revolution

Industrial revolution

21st century

TimeToday

Energy Efficient Buildings Initiatives

American Institute of Architects (AIA) Sustainability 2030• 50% CO2 reduction in new buildings by 2010• Additional 10% energy 5 years until zero C02 by 2030.• Renovate new buildings for 50% CO2 reduction

U.S. Green Building Council LEED Certification:• 50% reduction in site energy use for base LEED • 65% Silver• 80% Gold• 100% Platinum

ASHRAE • Standard 90.1-2010: 30% less energy than 90.1-2004• Standard 90.1-2020: guidance for net zero site energy use

U.S. Department of Energy• All commercial buildings are net zero energy by 2025

US Carbon Stabilization Scenario

Socolow and Pacala, Scientific American, September, 2006