RNO MPWG Forecast Boards-24x36
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15.7% 12.6% 3.9% 6.2% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Annual Growth Rate 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Enplanements (Million) Reno Air American/TWA America West/US Airways All Others Southwest 1.68 Recession Terrorist attacks End of hub Great Recession Airline capacity rationalization Peak of Reno Air Hub 1.45 3.34 2.67 1.65 1.82 Recession
Transcript of RNO MPWG Forecast Boards-24x36
15.7%12.6%
3.9%6.2%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Ann
ual G
row
th R
ate
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Enpl
anem
ents
(Mill
ion)
Reno Air
American/TWA
America West/US Airways
All Others
Southwest1.68
RecessionTerrorist attacks
End of hubGreat
RecessionAirline capacityrationalization
Peak of Reno Air Hub
1.45
3.34
2.67
1.65 1.82
Recession
Hybrid framework
Multivariate time series regression
Monte Carlo simulation
Scenario analysis
Demand
Regression Analysis Economic trends
• Regional• National
Yield trends Structural changes
Supply
Airline schedules Aircraft seat size Load factor
All-cargo, 97% FedEx, 61%
UPS, 33%
DHL, 3%
Belly cargo, 3% Southwest
Delta
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Tota
l Air
Car
go (M
illio
n Po
unds
)
Belly All-Cargo
Regression analysis
Institutional forecasts
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
Growth Index (2016 Level = 100)
High Total Air Cargo High All-Cargo Ops MP Total Air Cargo
MP All-Cargo Ops Low Total Air Cargo Low All-Cargo Ops
Regression analysis links changes in GA operations to trends in demand drivers
Itinerant and local GA operations modeled separately
Non-CommercialOperations
Levels
Actual Forecast
2016 2036
GA 26,775 34,129
Itinerant 23,292 29,544
Local 3,483 4,585
Military 2,220 2,220
Based Aircraft 122 142
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
Historical Forecast
GA
Ope
rati
ons
Local Itinerant
0.9% CAGR (2016-2021)
1.9% CAGR(2021-2026)
1.0% CAGR (2026-2036)
RNO General Aviation Activity Forecast
MP Forecast vs. TAF: Enplanements
2,893,261
2,839,346
3,167,767
2,332,575
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
Historical Forecast
Enpl
anem
ents
Mill
ions
FAA TAF, CY
MP
HIGH
LOW
Actual Forecast2016 2021 2026 2036
Master Plan Forecast Enplanements 1,823,580 2,178,486 2,416,753 2,839,346Compound Annual Growth Rate 2016-2021: 3.6% 2021-2026: 2.1% 2026-2036: 1.6%
TAF Enplanements 1,810,222 2,184,750 2,392,629 2,893,261Compound Annual Growth Rate 2016-2021: 3.8% 2021-2026: 1.8% 2026-2036: 1.9%
HIGH Forecast Enplanements 1,823,580 2,314,655 2,622,295 3,167,767Compound Annual Growth Rate 2016-2021: 4.9% 2021-2026: 2.5% 2026-2036: 1.9%
LOW Forecast Enplanements 1,823,580 1,949,137 2,063,131 2,332,575Compound Annual Growth Rate 2016-2021: 1.3% 2021-2026: 1.1% 2026-2036: 1.2%
MP Forecast vs. TAF: Commercial Operations
80,055
73,116
81,509
60,432
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
Historical Forecast
Com
mer
cial
Air
craf
t Ope
rati
ons
Thou
sand
sFAA TAF, CY
MP
HIGH
LOW
Actual Forecast2016 2021 2026 2036
Master Plan Forecast Operations 52,814 61,366 65,543 73,116 Compound Annual Growth Rate 2016-2021: 3.0% 2021-2026: 1.3% 2026-2036: 1.1%
TAF Operations 52,814 62,360 67,604 80,055Compound Annual Growth Rate 2016-2021: 3.4% 2021-2026: 1.6% 2026-2036: 1.7%
HIGH Forecast Operations 52,814 64,736 70,737 81,509Compound Annual Growth Rate 2016-2021: 4.2% 2021-2026: 1.8% 2026-2036: 1.4%
LOW Forecast Operations 52,814 55,382 56,499 60,432Compound Annual Growth Rate 2016-2021: 1.0% 2021-2026: 0.4% 2026-2036: 0.7%
MP Forecast vs. TAF: Noncommercial Operations
31,048
36,349
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
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2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
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2036
Historical Forecast
Non
Com
mer
cial
Ope
rati
ons
(Tho
usan
ds)
FAA TAF, CY
MP Base
Noncommercial Operations Actual Forecast2016 2021 2026 2036
Master Plan Forecast Operations 28,995 30,254 32,966 36,349Compound Annual Growth Rate 2016-2021: 0.9% 2021-2026: 1.7% 2026-2036: 1.0%
TAF Operations 28,594 28,880 29,581 31,048 Compound Annual Growth Rate 2016-2021: 0.2% 2021-2026: 0.5% 2026-2036: 0.5%
Based Aircraft Actual Forecast2016 2021 2026 2036
Master Plan Forecast Based AC 122 126 135 142 Compound Annual Growth Rate 2016-2021: 0.6% 2021-2026: 1.3% 2026-2036: 0.5%
TAF Based AC 120 120 120 120Compound Annual Growth Rate 2016-2021: 0.0% 2021-2026: 0.0% 2026-2036: 0.0%
