RMSUpdate November 4, 2004 Retail Market Subcommittee Update to TAC.

RMS RMS UpdateUpdateRMS RMS

UpdateUpdate

November 4, 2004

Retail Market SubcommitteeUpdate to TAC


UpdateUpdateVoting Items

Summary

RMGRR 2004-13 – Disconnect at Premium Locations

RMGRR 2004-14 – Inadvertent Gain Process

RMGRR 2004-15 – Data Extract Variance Process

Annual Validation Report to the ERCOT Board

Household Electric Use Survey



Retail Market Guide Revision Requests

RMGRR 2004-13 – Disconnect at Premium Locations

Incorporates the tariff charge variation among TDSP’s into the

Retail Market Guide

RMGRR 2004-14 – Inadvertent Gain Process

Identifies individual TDSP processes required to resolve

inadvertent switch situations

RMGRR 2004-15 – Data Extract Variance Process

Defines the Data Extract Variance Process including the utilization

of FasTrak to resolve agreed differences and seeking ADR

resolution for contested differences

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Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

28 14 314 151 1

Near Term Action Plan Timeline

September 28 - PWG Near Term Action Plan Approved

October 14 – Near Term Action Plan Submitted to

RMS

November 4 – Near Term Action Plan Submitted to TAC for ERCOT Board

Review

December 31- ERCOT Staff Finalizes Recommendations to

PWG. Market Participants Begin Making Changes

February - RMS Requested February Review

March 1 -TDSPs and ERCOT Complete System

Changes

May 1 - TDSPs and ERCOT Complete Testing

System ChangesJune 15 - Normal Start of 2005 Annual Validation

November - Normal Completion of 2005 Annual

Validation Transactions

200

4

200

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Near Term Action Plan

1. Do not replace a prior year non-default

assignment with a default assignment

A new calculation for each ESI ID is made each year

Currently: Insufficient data requires assignment to default

Residential defaults to Residential Low Winter Ratio (RESLOWR)

Commercial defaults to Business Medium Load Factor (BUSMEDLF)

Proposed: If sufficient data was available in a previous year an

assignment to default would not be made





2. Applying dead-bands around the specified Residential

Segment trigger point

Currently: If WR > 1.5 it is assigned to High Winter Ratio (HiWR)

Proposed: Create a dead-band around the 1.5 trigger point

Example – Assume dead-band (1.0 to 2.0)

if current assignment is RESLOWR and new WR = 1.7, would remain RESLOWR

if current assignment is RESLOWR and new WR = 2.1, would change to RESHIWR

Result - significant reduction in migration

SpringBaseFallBaseAverage

ADUseADUseADUseMaxWR febjandec

,

,,





3. Use more than 1 month for the Residential

Winter Ratio formula

Example – Change numerator to average the ADU for highest 2

months

Result - significant reduction in migration

SpringBaseFallBaseAverage

ADUseADUseADUseMaxWR febjandec

,

,,





4. Apply a kWh minimum for Residential

High Winter Ratio profile assignment

Currently: None

Proposed: Identify a reasonable minimum usage for High

Winter Ratio assignment

Example – RESHIWR minimum = 10 kWh/day (300kWH/month)

If WR = 3.0 and 5 kWh/day then assign RESLOWR

If WR = 3.0 and 15 kWh/day then assign RESHIWR





5. Use an ERCOT administered residential survey

to determine heating system type for a sample

of customers

The survey will empirically support data used to define dead-

bands, minimum thresholds and revised WR calculation

40,000 surveys will be mailed to end use customers

5,000 to each weather zone

2,500 to each existing profile type current assignment

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Market Participant Concerns Customer Confusion Call Center Impact Statistical Relevance

Solutions Adopted Bilingual Survey Answering service (800 number) Web information ERCOT staff follow-up Call Center Training Materials Statistical Relevance….

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Statistical Relevance “Even in the worst case scenario, response data will be sufficient to make

significant improvements in profile assignments.”

Survey Accuracy (95% Confidence)

Return Rate ERCOT Total Weather Zone

15% ±1.3% ± 3.7%

10% ± 1.6% ± 4.5%

5% ± 2.2% ± 6.3%

1% ± 5.0% ± 14.1%

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RMS approved the PWG action plan Concept of the residential survey Implementation time line

Collaborative effort of PWG and RMS produced a simplified residential survey

Market conference call to discuss concerns

RMS email vote affirmed the survey

RMS Recommendation: TAC endorse the Residential Survey and Near Term Action Plan

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RMSUpdate November 4, 2004 Retail Market Subcommittee Update to TAC.

Documents

Transcript of RMSUpdate November 4, 2004 Retail Market Subcommittee Update to TAC.