1. Hazard MapsRisk ProjectsFragility Maps & Shake MapsPresented by: David Gutierrez RiveraSupervised by:Dipl.-Ing. Lars AbrahamczykDr.-Ing. Jochen Schwarz

2. Hazard Maps: Contents1) Introduction2) Motivation3) Fundamentalsa. Fragilityb. Performance: Capacity & Demandc. Probabilityd. Simulations4) Fragility Mapsa. Fragility Curvesb. Building Stock5) Shake Mapsa. Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE)b. Sensors Data 3. Hazard Maps: IntroductionHazard MapsA Hazard Map highlights areas that are affected orvulnerable of a particular hazard.They help use describe qualitatively and quantitatively aspecific area in order to assess its vulnerability to aparticular hazard. 4. Introduction: Seismic Hazard MapRef. http://www.seismo.ethz.ch/static/GSHAP/ 5. Introduction: Fire Hazard MapRef. http://www.battle-creek.net/docs/fire/fire_hazard_map_final.jpg 6. Introduction: Tsunami Vulnerability MapRef. Tsunami fragility curves and tsunami vulnerability - http://bymur.bo.ingv.it/frames/wg4.html 7. Introduction: Building Stock Vulnerability MapRef. Determination of Fragility Curves - http://www.merci.ethz.ch 8. Fragility Maps: MotivationApplications of Fragility Maps & Fragility Curves are:Probabilistic Risk AssessmentConstruction Code DevelopmentUrban PlanningLoss EstimationRetrofittingShake Maps 9. Fragility Maps: Loss EstimationA group of buildings of different types subjected to a hazardmay experience damage states of different types.With Fragility Curves atyour disposal for each ofthis building types anddamages states, and alsoknowing the expense forrepairing this damageson the buildings, we canestimate the expectedannual or monthly loss. 3,000 1,000 500 1,500 2,500 10. Fundamentals: FragilityFragilityIt is a measure of part of the Vulnerability of a structure toloads induced by a hazard.Risk = Fun ( Hazard, Vulnerability, Cost ) 11. Fundamentals: FragilityMathematically, a fragility relationship can be defined as:Where:Pf is the failure probability for a specific damage stateSd is the structural demand, andSc is the structural capacity. 12. Fundamentals: FragilityFragilityFragility of a Structure is affected by: Type of Hazard (EQ, Wind, Flood,...) Strength of Hazard Structural Type Construction Materials Soil-Structure Interaction 13. Fundamentals: CapacityCapacityIs a measure of the maximum load, or any other parameter, a structurecan sustain for it to achieve a predefined damage state. This willdepend on the structural system, materials and other structuralattributes that affect the resistance of a structure.Ref. Application of the Applied Element Method to the Seismic Vulnerability Evaluation of Existing Buildings http://www.extremeloading.com/upload/Karbassi%20et%20Nollet_CSCE2008_without%20logo.pdf 14. Capacity: Pushover AnalysisPushover AnalysisUsing this method we can obtain the Capacity of a Structure. Theprocedure consists on applying either a small lateral displacement orforce to the structure, iteratively increasing this amount, re-analizing thestructure at each step, until the predefined damage state is obtained.Ref. Seismic Risk Assessment and Loss Estimation http://web.mit.edu/istgroup/ist/documents/earthquake/Part1.pdf 15. Fundamentals: DemandDemandIts a measure of the loads, or any other parameter, that a structurewould be subjected to by a given hazard. It will depend on characteristicsof the hazard and site conditions, which affect the overall effect on thestructure. Seismic Demand is represented by using Response Spectra.Ref. Eurocode 8 - Design of structures for earthquake resistance 16. Demand: Seismic Response Spectra0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 24.543.532.521.510.50Period T, [sec]SaSeismic Response SpectraIs a plot of the peak or steady-state response (displacement, velocity oracceleration) of a series of buildings of varying Natural Frequency orPeriod, forced into motion by thesame base Ground Motion.Using the available GroundMotion Data from a region ageneral Seismic ResponseSpectra can be develop foruse in this region.Ground Motion Data 17. Demand: Seismic Response SpectraSeismic Response Spectra 18. Fundamentals: PerformancePerformanceHammurabi, King of Babylon once said:Article 229: The builder has built a housefor a man and his work is not strong andif the house he has built falls in andkills a householder, that builder shall be slain.This is a performance statement.He addressed structural safetyentirely in terms of user requirements,did not state how to construct the building,and did not refer to building structure or building materials. 19. Performance: Performance-Based DesignPerformance-Based DesignThe Performance approach consists of working in terms of Endsrather than Means. It is concerned with what a building isrequired to do, and not with how it is to be constructed.- CapacityPerformance-Based Design Ingredients:- Demand-> Determination of the Performance Point-> Check Structural Behavior under Defined Seismic Actionwith your Defined Limit States. 20. Performance: Performance PointPerformance PointCapacity CurveBase Shear Roof DisplacementCapacity CurveSa SdResponse SpectrumSa PeriodResponse SpectrumRef. Performance-based design NHRE 3rd Course Lecture: Risk Projects 21. Performance: ComparisonRef. Seismic Risk Assessment and Loss Estimation http://web.mit.edu/istgroup/ist/documents/earthquake/Part1.pdf 22. Fragility Maps: Fragility CurvesFragility CurvesBy assuming material properties and certain other structuralattributes that affect the overall Capacity of a structure, and withadditional assumptions about the ground motion and siteconditionsboth factors that affect the seismic Demand, we candeterministically calculate the performance of a structure.Naturally, values of these parameters are not exact theyinvariably have a measure of both randomness and uncertaintyassociated with them.When we take into account this probabilistic characteristics wegenerate what we know as Fragility Curves. 23. Fragility Curves: ShapeRef. Determination of Fragility Curves - http://www.merci.ethz.ch 24. Fragility Curves: Normal (Gaussian) DistributionNormal (Gaussian) Distributiond dccRef. Fragility Curve Development for Assessing the Seismic Vulnerability of Highway Bridges http://mceer.buffalo.edu/publications/resaccom/99-sp01/ch10mand.pdf 25. Fragility Curves: Normal (Gaussian) DistributionProbability Density FunctionRef. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution 26. Fragility Curves: Normal (Gaussian) DistributionCumulative Distribution FunctionRef. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution 27. Normal Distribution: Parameter EstimationMaximum Likelihood MethodCapacity DemandC(x) D(x)C1 D1C2 D2C3 D3......Cn DnFor the Normal Distribution: 28. Normal Distribution: Parameter Estimationc d A 2 2c c d 29. Normal Distribution: Parameter Estimationc d A 2 2c c d For Civil EngineeringStructures: 0.5 0.6 c Ref. Fragility Curve Development for Assessing the Seismic Vulnerability of Highway Bridges http://mceer.buffalo.edu/publications/resaccom/99-sp01/ch10mand.pdf 30. Normal Distribution: Cumulative Distribution Function Newton-Cotes Integration Trapezoidal Rule Simpson Rule Gaussian Quadratures Gauss-Legendre Gauss-HermiteNumerical Integration Methods 31. Building Stock: Building CategoriesBuilding CategoriesA Classification of the Building Stock needs to be made inorder to develop their respective fragility curves.Classification can be made according to: Structural Type Building Purpose Building Quality 32. Building Stock: Structural Type 33. Building Stock: Building PurposeIBC Building Occupancy ClassificationsAssembly (Group A) - places used for people gathering for entertainment, worship,and eating or drinking. Examples: churches, restaurants (with 50 or more possibleoccupants), theaters, and stadiums.Business (Group B) - places where services are provided (not to be confused withmercantile, below). Examples: banks, insurance agencies, government buildings(including police and fire stations), and doctor's offices.Educational (Group E) - schools and day care centers up to the 12th grade.Factory (Group F) - places where goods are manufactured or repaired.High-Hazard (Group H) - places involving production or storage of very flammableor toxic materials. Includes places handling explosives and/or highly toxic materials.Institutional (Group I) - places where people are physically unable to leave withoutassistance. Examples: hospitals, nursing homes, and prisons. In some jurisdictions,Group I may be used to designate Industrial.Mercantile (Group M) - places where goods are displayed and sold. Examples:grocery stores, department stores, and gas stations.Residential (Group R) - places providing accommodations for overnight stay(excluding Institutional). Examples: houses, apartment buildings, hotels, and motels.Storage (Group S) - places where items are stored (unless considered High-Hazard). Examples: warehouses and parking garages.Utility and Miscellaneous (Group U) - others. Examples: water towers, barns,towers. 34. Fragility Curves: Construction 35. Fragility Curves: ConstructionRef. Determination of Fragility Curves - http://www.merci.ethz.ch 36. Fragility Curves: ConstructionNumerical Simulation Determine Site-SpecificSeismic Ground Motion Construct Numerical Modelaccounting forSoil-Structure Interaction Definition of failure criteria Uncertainty quantification,Modeling and Propagation 37. Fragility Curves: ConstructionMonte Carlo SimulationE, ILoad 38. Fragility Curves: ConstructionMonte Carlo SimulationFragility Curve 39. Retrofitting Effects onFragility of StructuresRef. Deterministic and Probabilistic Evaluation of Retrofit Alternatives for a Five-Story Flat-Slab RC Building -https://www.ideals.illinois.edu/bitstream/handle/2142/8784/Deterministic%20and%20Probabilistic%20Evaluation%20of%20Retrofit%20Alternatives%20for%20a%20Five-Story%20Flat-Slab%20RC%20Building.pdf?sequence=2 40. Shake Maps: IntroductionShake MapsIs a representation of ground shaking produced by an earthquake.ShakeMap focuses on the ground-shaking produced by the earthquake, rather thanthe parameters describing the earthquake source.Depending on distance from the earthquake, depth, rock and soil conditions atsites, and variations in the propagation of seismic waves from the earthquake dueto complexities in the structure of the Earth's crust, it produces a range of groundshaking levels at sites throughout the region.PAGER Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakesfor ResponseThe PAGER system provides fatalityand economic loss impact estimatesfollowing significant earthquakesworldwide.Ref. http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/pager/ 41. Shake Maps: MotivationApplication of Shake Maps are:Seismological Research - Calibration of GMPEEarthquake Scenarios PreparednessEmergency ResponseLoss Estimation 42. Shake Maps: Emergency ResponseFire Department 43. Shake Maps: Emergency ResponseSearch & Rescue 44. Shake Maps: Emergency ResponseRed Cross 45. Shake Map: ShakeCasthttp://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/shakemap/ 46. Shake Map: openSHAIntensity-MeasureRelationshiphttp://www.opensha.org/ 47. Shake Map: openSHARegion & Site Parameters 48. Shake Map: openSHASite Data Providers 49. Shake Map: openSHAEarthquake Rupture 50. Shake Map: openSHAExceedance Level/Prob. 51. Shake Map: openSHAMap Attributes 52. Shake Map: openSHA Generated MapsHonduras 53. Shake Map: openSHA Generated MapsCalifornia 54. Shake Map: openSHA Generated MapsJapan 55. Shake Map: Construction 56. Shake Map: GMPE 57. Shake Map: GMPE 58. Shake Map: GMPE 59. Shake Map: GMPE 60. Shake Map: GMPE 61. Shake Map: Sensors DataInterpolation and ExtrapolationSensors Data is prioritize over GMPEwhen calculating site Ground-Shaking (PGA),IF there is enough data available.Interpolation and Extrapolation Schemesmust be implemented to calculate interiorand exterior PGA values, respectively.Methods (Uni-Dimensional)-Linear-Polynomial-Spline , others ...Methods (Multi-Dimensional, Spatial)-Bilinear-Natural & Nearest Neighbor-Kriging , others ... Ref. ShakeMap Manual 62. Shake Map: Interpolation and ExtrapolationMATLAB Commands Yi = interp1( X, Y, Xi ) ; Zi = interp2( X , Y, Z, Xi, Yi )Zi = griddata( X , Y, Z, Xi, Yi )interFun = TriScatteredInterp( X , Y , method ) Zi = interpFun( Xi , Yi ) 63. Case Study: Honduras1. Building Stock2. Fragility Curves3. PGA Map GSHAP4. Fragility Map Construction5. Brick Fragility Map6. Masonry Fragility Map7. Timber Fragility Map8. Concrete Fragility Map9. Adobe Fragility Map10. Overall Fragility Map11. ShakeMaps for EQ1 South Coast12. ShakeMaps for EQ2 North CoastSoftware Tools Used:- MapInfo- Matlab- Excel- openSHA 64. Honduras: Building Stock 65. Honduras: Fragility CurvesBrick BuildingTypeFILE: AhmadEtAl2010-MABrick-HighPercentageVoids-2storeys-PGAUnreinforced Masonry bearing wall structure Fired Brick with high percentages of voids 2 storeysThe considered building stock represents the Euro-Mediterranean buildings in general and Italian andSlovenian in particular.Uncertainties in lateral stiffness, strength, anddamage limit states are expressed by using controlledMonte Carlo simulations.Masonry BuildingTypeFILE: KostovEtAl2004-Type1-1-4storeys-Before1919Masonry buildings with deformable floors (wooden,steel floor) - 1-4 storeys - Constructed Before 1919RC frame and wall, masonry buildings of differentperiods in Sofia-BulgariaDeterministic event (1858 earthquake)The uncertainty is related to material strength, loadcombination, computational model, constructionquality and behaviour factor.MEAN_SLIGHT STD_SLIGHT MEAN_HEAVY STD_HEAVY MEAN_COLLAPSE STD_COLLAPSE0.184 0.115 0.304 0.194 0.318 0.196MEAN_SLIGHT STD_SLIGHT MEAN_HEAVY STD_HEAVY MEAN_COLLAPSE STD_COLLAPSE0.14 0.13 0.23 0.22 0.33 0.31 66. Honduras: Fragility CurvesConcrete BuildingTypeFILE: LielAndLynch2009-RC-MRRC buildings - mid riseItalyL'Aquila Earthquake, 6th April 2009.Ground-shaking intensity is estimated for each sitebased on Italy ShakemapThe collapse fragility curve is not shown becausethere are not sufficient data to estimate it correctly* Therefore I changed the Damages States accordingly to:Heavy -> CollapseModerate -> HeavyMEAN_SLIGHT STD_SLIGHT MEAN_HEAVY STD_HEAVY MEAN_COLLAPSE STD_COLLAPSE0.34 0.06 0.38 0.05 0.45 0.07 67. Honduras: Fragility CurvesTimber BuildingTypeAssumed.Couldnt find suitable Fragility Curve for Timber,therefore assumed values which are in between anAdobe and a Masonry Building.Adobe BuildingTypeRef. SEISMIC RISK ASSESSMENT OF ADOBE DWELLINGS -www.roseschool.it/files/get/id/4480MEAN_SLIGHT STD_SLIGHT MEAN_HEAVY STD_HEAVY MEAN_COLLAPSE STD_COLLAPSE0.189 0.25 0.314 0.33 0.353 0.38MEAN_SLIGHT STD_SLIGHT MEAN_HEAVY STD_HEAVY MEAN_COLLAPSE STD_COLLAPSE0.025 0.55 0.125 0.54 0.22 0.59 68. Honduras: PGA Map - GSHAP 69. Honduras: Fragility Map ConstructionPGA = 2.75 m/s2 = 0.275 g 70. Honduras: Fragility Map ConstructionMasonry BuildingTypeProb = 0.30PGA = 2.75 m/s2 = 0.275 g 71. Honduras: Fragility Map ConstructionMasonry Buildings Fragility MapProb = 0.30 = 0.25 to 0.35 72. Honduras: Fragility Map ConstructionPGA = 2.00 m/s2 = 0.20 g 73. Honduras: Fragility Map ConstructionAdobe BuildingTypeProb = 0.45PGA = 2.00 m/s2 = 0.20 g 74. Honduras: Fragility Map ConstructionCollapse Damage StateProb = 0.45 = 0.35 to 0.50Adobe Buildings Fragility Map 75. Honduras: Data HandlingMATLABInterpFun = TriScatteredInterp( X, Y , FRAG) 76. Honduras: Data HandlingMATLABInterpFun = TriScatteredInterp( X, Y , FRAG)inFRAG = InterpFun( inX, inY) 77. Honduras: Brick Buildings Fragility MapCollapse Damage State 78. Honduras: Masonry Buildings Fragility MapCollapse Damage State 79. Honduras: Timber Buildings Fragility MapCollapse Damage State 80. Honduras: Concrete Buildings Fragility MapCollapse Damage State 81. Honduras: Adobe Buildings Fragility MapCollapse Damage State 82. Honduras: Overall Fragility MapCollapse Damage State 83. Honduras: Overall Fragility MapCollapse Damage StateOverall FRAG. = (#ofBuildingType_i X Frag_BuildingType_i) / (#ofBuildingType_i) 84. Shake Map: ConstructionPGA ?PGA = GMPE( Mw, Depth, Dist, )DahlePGA = 0.81 m/s2 Choluteca 85. Shake Map: ConstructionOverall Fragility MapPGA = 0.81 m/s2Overall FRAG. = (#ofBuildingType_i X Frag_BuildingType_i) /(#ofBuildingType_i)PROB. = 0.015162CholutecaCholuteca 86. Shake Map: ConstructionProb = 0.015162 87. Shake Map: Honduras South CoastBuildings CollapsedEQ: Mw = 6.5, Depth 30 km Long. = -87.5 , Lat. = 13.25 88. Shake Map: Honduras South CoastProbability of ExceedanceEQ: Mw = 6.5, Depth 30 km Long. = -87.5 , Lat. = 13.25 89. Shake Map: using openSHAProbability of ExceedanceEQ: Mw = 6.5, Depth 30 km Long. = -87.5 , Lat. = 13.25 90. Shake Map: using openSHAIntensity MMIEQ: Mw = 6.5, Depth 30 km Long. = -87.5 , Lat. = 13.25 91. Shake Map: Honduras North CoastBuildings CollapsedEQ: Mw = 7.5, Depth 25 km Long. = -88.0 , Lat. = 16.0 92. Shake Map: Honduras North CoastProbability of ExceedanceEQ: Mw = 7.5, Depth 25 km Long. = -88.0 , Lat. = 16.0 93. Shake Map: using openSHAProbability of ExceedanceEQ: Mw = 7.5, Depth 25 km Long. = -88.0 , Lat. = 16.0 94. Shake Map: using openSHAIntensity MMIEQ: Mw = 7.5, Depth 25 km Long. = -88.0 , Lat. = 16.0 95. Thank You