Risk Management in Geotechnical Decision Making · Decision Making Benjamin S Rivers PEBenjamin S....
Transcript of Risk Management in Geotechnical Decision Making · Decision Making Benjamin S Rivers PEBenjamin S....
![Page 1: Risk Management in Geotechnical Decision Making · Decision Making Benjamin S Rivers PEBenjamin S. Rivers, PE Geotechnical Engineer ... • Evaluation and Economic Investment ...](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052015/602df9fdf3c75a64f1210337/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
August 11, 2008
8th Annual Technical Forum
Geohazards in Transportation pin the Appalachian Region
Risk Management in Geotechnical Decision Making
Benjamin S Rivers PEBenjamin S. Rivers, PEGeotechnical EngineerFederal Highway Administration
![Page 2: Risk Management in Geotechnical Decision Making · Decision Making Benjamin S Rivers PEBenjamin S. Rivers, PE Geotechnical Engineer ... • Evaluation and Economic Investment ...](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052015/602df9fdf3c75a64f1210337/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Competing Demands…p g
![Page 3: Risk Management in Geotechnical Decision Making · Decision Making Benjamin S Rivers PEBenjamin S. Rivers, PE Geotechnical Engineer ... • Evaluation and Economic Investment ...](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052015/602df9fdf3c75a64f1210337/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Asset Management Perspective
• National Highway System Practically Complete• Maintain, Improve, Manage
• System Management and MonitoringSystem Management and Monitoring• Construction and System Preservation• Evaluation and Economic Investment
Managing Decisions…
![Page 4: Risk Management in Geotechnical Decision Making · Decision Making Benjamin S Rivers PEBenjamin S. Rivers, PE Geotechnical Engineer ... • Evaluation and Economic Investment ...](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052015/602df9fdf3c75a64f1210337/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Risk Management …a decision making tool.
Systematic Process Involving…
• Identification• AnalysisAnalysis• Planning• Management
![Page 5: Risk Management in Geotechnical Decision Making · Decision Making Benjamin S Rivers PEBenjamin S. Rivers, PE Geotechnical Engineer ... • Evaluation and Economic Investment ...](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052015/602df9fdf3c75a64f1210337/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Risk
• Future Phenomenon• May or May Not Occur• Direct Impact to Project/Program• Benefit or DetrimentBenefit or Detriment
![Page 6: Risk Management in Geotechnical Decision Making · Decision Making Benjamin S Rivers PEBenjamin S. Rivers, PE Geotechnical Engineer ... • Evaluation and Economic Investment ...](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052015/602df9fdf3c75a64f1210337/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Risk Management – Why?
• Limit Surprises• Minimize Management by Crisis• Operate Proactively instead of Reactively• Reduce Long-term Costs and/or VariancesReduce Long term Costs and/or Variances• Increase Likelihood of Success• “Do It Right” the First Time
P t Mi i i B d Thi f H i• Prevent or Minimize Bad Things from Happening• Gain Competitive Advantage
Minimize Threats Maximize Opportunities
![Page 7: Risk Management in Geotechnical Decision Making · Decision Making Benjamin S Rivers PEBenjamin S. Rivers, PE Geotechnical Engineer ... • Evaluation and Economic Investment ...](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052015/602df9fdf3c75a64f1210337/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Construction Claims
• Changed Conditions• Legitimate
Inadequate site characterizationBust in processBust in process…
• FraudulentLoopholes in contracting method(s)P bl /C fli t ithi ifi ti i lProblems/Conflicts within specifications, special provisions, documentation…
![Page 8: Risk Management in Geotechnical Decision Making · Decision Making Benjamin S Rivers PEBenjamin S. Rivers, PE Geotechnical Engineer ... • Evaluation and Economic Investment ...](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052015/602df9fdf3c75a64f1210337/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Failures…due to…Failures…due to…• Geohazards
• Complex Geologic ConditionsMan Made Conditions• Man-Made Conditions
• Inadequate Design• Inadequate Characterization• Inadequate Construction• Inadequate QA…
![Page 9: Risk Management in Geotechnical Decision Making · Decision Making Benjamin S Rivers PEBenjamin S. Rivers, PE Geotechnical Engineer ... • Evaluation and Economic Investment ...](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052015/602df9fdf3c75a64f1210337/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Inherent to Geotechnical EngineeringInherent to Geotechnical Engineering…• Geological and subsurface conditions are
quite variable and dynamicquite variable and dynamic• Subsurface conditions are typically not
readily apparent• Generalize conditions on limited physical• Generalize conditions on limited physical
data
![Page 10: Risk Management in Geotechnical Decision Making · Decision Making Benjamin S Rivers PEBenjamin S. Rivers, PE Geotechnical Engineer ... • Evaluation and Economic Investment ...](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052015/602df9fdf3c75a64f1210337/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
![Page 11: Risk Management in Geotechnical Decision Making · Decision Making Benjamin S Rivers PEBenjamin S. Rivers, PE Geotechnical Engineer ... • Evaluation and Economic Investment ...](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052015/602df9fdf3c75a64f1210337/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Types of Risks…
• Pure Risks• Business Risks
• Identified Risks - “Known Unknowns”Identified Risks Known Unknowns• Unidentified Risks – “Unknown Unknowns”
![Page 12: Risk Management in Geotechnical Decision Making · Decision Making Benjamin S Rivers PEBenjamin S. Rivers, PE Geotechnical Engineer ... • Evaluation and Economic Investment ...](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052015/602df9fdf3c75a64f1210337/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Maximum Value Approach
Greatest Reduction in Risk for the Cost
Compare Benefits of Response Strategies to Overall Cost
Expected Value = Probability of Risk Event X Impact of Risk Event
Quantitative or Qualitative
![Page 13: Risk Management in Geotechnical Decision Making · Decision Making Benjamin S Rivers PEBenjamin S. Rivers, PE Geotechnical Engineer ... • Evaluation and Economic Investment ...](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052015/602df9fdf3c75a64f1210337/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Effective Responses to Risks
• Appropriate to the Severity of the Risk• Cost-Effective• Timely• Realistic and within ContextRealistic and within Context• Mutual buy-in from all involved• Ownership/Responsibility
P i d B k St t i• Primary and Backup Strategies
![Page 14: Risk Management in Geotechnical Decision Making · Decision Making Benjamin S Rivers PEBenjamin S. Rivers, PE Geotechnical Engineer ... • Evaluation and Economic Investment ...](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052015/602df9fdf3c75a64f1210337/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Threat Responses
• Avoid• Transfer• Mitigate• AcceptAccept
![Page 15: Risk Management in Geotechnical Decision Making · Decision Making Benjamin S Rivers PEBenjamin S. Rivers, PE Geotechnical Engineer ... • Evaluation and Economic Investment ...](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052015/602df9fdf3c75a64f1210337/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Opportunity Responses
• Exploit• Share• Enhance• AcceptAccept
![Page 16: Risk Management in Geotechnical Decision Making · Decision Making Benjamin S Rivers PEBenjamin S. Rivers, PE Geotechnical Engineer ... • Evaluation and Economic Investment ...](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052015/602df9fdf3c75a64f1210337/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Risk Management An Opport nit for the EngineeringRisk Management: An Opportunity for the Engineering Geology and Geotechnical Engineering Professions
• A Rational Method for Showing Value
![Page 17: Risk Management in Geotechnical Decision Making · Decision Making Benjamin S Rivers PEBenjamin S. Rivers, PE Geotechnical Engineer ... • Evaluation and Economic Investment ...](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052015/602df9fdf3c75a64f1210337/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
August 11, 2008
Risk Management Resources
NHI Course No. 134065: Risk Management
Other Sources:
Bernstein, Peter L. Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1998.
Project Management Institute Standards Committee. A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge. 3rd Edition. Newtown Square PA : Project Management Institute 2004Square, PA.: Project Management Institute, 2004
![Page 18: Risk Management in Geotechnical Decision Making · Decision Making Benjamin S Rivers PEBenjamin S. Rivers, PE Geotechnical Engineer ... • Evaluation and Economic Investment ...](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052015/602df9fdf3c75a64f1210337/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Questions?