Risk Management A Key Project Management Knowledge Area.
-
Upload
godfrey-page -
Category
Documents
-
view
219 -
download
1
Transcript of Risk Management A Key Project Management Knowledge Area.
Project Management Practice
• Why do most application development projects fail?
• How can you improve productivity by 20 to 30%?
• Why are 66% of IT projects late or over budget?
Gartner Report – April 18, 2000
• Fixing a requirement problem early on will cost $1.• That same problem will cost $10. later in design
• In deployment the cost increases to $100.
University of Southern California – PM Network May 2003
Software industry projects fail because….
Software development projects are in jeopardy Software development projects are in jeopardy because they are not managed by experienced because they are not managed by experienced project managers using proven methodologies and project managers using proven methodologies and techniques.techniques.
Managing Software DevelopmentManaging Software Development
• • What is Risk Management?• Tools and Techniques to Manage Risk.• How Does Risk Management Fit Into My Project Plan?
RisksRisks
… software to autopilot ground vehicles …
Project Risk Management Process
• Risk identification• Risk quantification• Risk qualification• Risk response planning• Risk monitoring & control
Risk Identification Sources• Documentation/Contracts• History
– Accurate stakeholder(s) identification– Mismanaged requirements gathering– Lack of documentation– Unchallenged assumptions
• Integration• Seamless• Compatible• Import/Export Functionality
• Work Breakdown Structure• Scheduled Triggers• Risk Breakdown Structure• Design• Testing/Technology• Operation/Maintenance/Support• Copy write/Patent/License
Project Risk Management Tools
• Risk identification Tools– ETR’s WBS Prompts– ETR’s Gantt Prompts– ETR’s Risk Management Checklist
What do I need for this activity/deliverable? Dependency RisksIs what I need available (When I need it)?
Human resources?Documentation?Hardware?Approvals?Funding?
Does this activity/deliverable assume anything? Assumption RisksIs the assumption(s) valid?
Does this activity/deliverable have constraints? Constraint RisksCan it be done with the constraints?
Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) Prompts
FF
SS
SS
SS
FF
FF
SS
FF
Scheduling Prompts
FS Does anything have to happen before I can start this?
Is there any risk in that dependency?
SS If these start at the same time, do I have the resources?Are the resources at risk?
FF Why do they have to end at the same Time? Does that dependency have any risks?
SF What needs to be finished before the other can start?Is there any risk that it won’t
be finished?
Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS)
Risk-
RiskBreakdownStructure
(RBS)
Requirements
Elicitation
Documentation
Validation
Schedule
Resources
Durations
StakeholderAnalysis
CorrectManagementLevel
CorrectUserLevels
Software Project Alpha
Risk Identification
The process of systematically identifying all possible risk events which may impact a project
– Generate a Risk List that will later be quantified and qualified. – Cumulative effect of several risk events occurring in concert with each other may be of greater significance
than the impact of a single issue
Classify by cause, not effect or impact!Classify by cause, not effect or impact!
Scheduling Risks
• Level of Effort (LOE) subjectively estimated • LOE estimated by incorrect stakeholder
• Work Package in Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) too large for accurate estimates• LOE based on a resource with overestimated skills &/or experience
Risk Quantification
• Probabilities & Statistical Equations• Decision Tree Calculations• Subjective Scales• Formulas Project Managers use … • Can be expressed numerically
– mean– median– mode– range– variance – standard deviation
Quantification of Dollar Value
• Product of two variables– Risk Event Probability:
• An estimate of the probability that a given risk event will occur
– Risk Event Value: • An estimate of the gain or loss that will be
incurred if the risk event does occur
{Probability of Impact x Dollar Value = Event Monetary Value: (P)I=EVM}
Reference: PMBOK, 1996. Ch. 11
Quantification of Duration Ranges
• (O + 4M + P) / 6 is PERT (Program Evaluation & Review Technique)
• (P – 0) / 6 is Standard Deviation
• [(P – O) / 6] is Task Variance
• is Project Variance (sum of the task variances)
Handy formulas to help quantify risk activity/task duration:O = Optimistic, M = Most Likely, P = Pessimistic
Please remember that subjective P, M, and O inputs yield subjective outputs.Historical inputs are preferred for P, M, and O values
2
[(P – O) / 6] 2
Qualitative Risk Rating
• High Likely to cause significant impact to schedule/cost/scope/quality
• Moderate Has potential to cause impact to schedule/cost/scope/quality
• Low Has little potential impact to Schedule/cost/scope/quality
COST
SCHEDULE
SCOPE
Remember ETR’s Triangle of Truth!
Risk Response Options
Ways to address risk issues.
– Avoidance: Eliminate up front (e.g. activity sequence in test plan)
– Reduction: (mitigation) Minimize anticipated impact
– Transfer: (deflection) Redirect issue ownership (sub/direct property/indirect consequential)
– Retention: (acceptance) Accept real or potential impacts
Risk Management Plan
• Should document the procedures that will be used to manage risk throughout the project
Reference: PMBOK, 1996. Ch.11
[If applicable] [Y-yes, N-no] [Open/Closed] Priority Scale [0= Will impact Critical Path, 1=1 day, 2= 1week, 3= > 1 week]
No. Unit Risk Item/Issue Status
Open Date Due Date
Revised Due Date
Finish Date Priority Initiator Owner
Notes
1 International N Contact list Open 6/20/2000 ####### 8/24/2001 1 J oe Customer J anet Smith Send Bill the List
2 EV4 Y Add unit Open 7/30/2001 ####### ####### 0 Customer PM
Esure that new unit requirements are incorporated into overall plan
3 N
4
Risk & Issues Log (for control)
Risk Management Process & the Project Plan
•
• Document risks in project plan• Use communication sub-plan to manage expectations • May require WBS or RBS elaboration • Budget for risk events • May imply adding mitigation tasks in schedule • Document status of risk issue • Assume risk reviews are part of entire project life cycle
Project Risk Management Process
• Risk identification• Risk quantification• Risk qualification• Risk response• Risk control
summary
Q&AQ&A
For additional information & copies of this presentation: Email Edward B. Farkas, PMP Managing Director, Project Management
Practice:
ETR Technology Center, Inc.180 Oser Avenue
Hauppauge, NY [email protected]
631.952.1300A certified WBE firm established in 1980