Risk Control with Trailing Stops and Options...+ Trailing Stop. Exp 2: Long Only MACD + Put Option...
Transcript of Risk Control with Trailing Stops and Options...+ Trailing Stop. Exp 2: Long Only MACD + Put Option...
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Risk Control with Trailing Stops and Options Systematic Evaluation of Popular Risk Control Techniques
www.quantconnect.com
Jared BroadFounder & CEO
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Outline
Introduction to QuantConnect
Algorithm Development Process
Creating Our Investigation Thesis
Developing a Control
Testing and Researching
Experiment 1: Adding Trailing Stop
Experiment 2: Adding Option Hedge
Experiment 3: Covered Calls
Summary
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What is QuantConnect?
We empower investors with powerful
investment tools and connect the brightest
minds from around the world with capital they need.
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What is QuantConnect?
QuantConnect is a community of 44,000 Engineers, Data Scientists, ProgrammersFrom 6,100 Cities and 173 Countries
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Building Thousands of Algorithms Every Day
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We’ve built a web algorithm lab where thousands of
people test their ideas on financial data we provide; for free.
LEAN ALGOTECHNOLOGY
FINANCIALDATA
POWERCOMPUTING
How do we do it?
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EQUITIESOPTIONSFUTURESFOREXCRYPTO
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Development Process
Live Trade
Deploy the strategy live in a
real money account.
Research Ideas
Backtest Algorithms
Paper Trade
Live Trading
ResearchQuickly test ideas in a command
line environment.
BacktestCodify and run full simulation in the
Algorithm Lab.
Paper TradeRun idea on live market data.
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Creating Our Investment Hypothesis
First we define our null hypothesis,
something we setout to disprove:
The market is completely efficient and attempts
at risk control are futile.
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We are testing this theory by evaluating popular risk control methods;
(e.g. Trailing Stops and Option Hedging), and comparing the performance.
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Setting the Benchmark, Control
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• Define a baseline performance for judging algorithm studies.
• Baseline should ideally be as close as possible to study. This reduces other
variables and makes it easier to identify potential causes.
Control: Long Only MACD
Long-Flat MACD; nothing else.
Exp 1: Long Only MACD
+ Trailing Stop.
Exp 2: Long Only MACD
+ Put Option Hedge.
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Exploratory Research
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Control Implementation
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Trailing Stop Hypothesis
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Place Stop
Move Up
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Experiment 1: Adding Trailing Stop
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Option Hedge Hypothesis
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Buy Put
Insure Dip
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Experiment 2: Buying Put Hedge
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Covered Call, Selling Options Hypothesis
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Buy Stock
Sell Call
Covered call works best on sideways or downward markets.
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Experiment 3: Selling Covered CallNot strictly “risk control”
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Key Statistics
IBM Experiment Sharpe Ratio Drawdown Alpha
Control Study 0.19 9% 0.11
Trailing Stop 0.19 9% 0.11
Option Hedging 0.19 9% 0.11
Covered Calls 0.19 9% 0.11
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Key statistics from testing our experimental strategy against a downward/sideways trending
asset; IBM.
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Key Statistics
SPY Experiment Sharpe Ratio Drawdown Alpha
Control Study 0.19 9% 0.11
Trailing Stop 0.19 9% 0.11
Option Hedging 0.19 9% 0.11
Covered Calls 0.19 9% 0.11
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Key statistics summary from re-testing the control and experimental strategies against a
trending asset; the SPY ETF.
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www.quantconnect.com Thank you.
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Appendix
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Our Research Environment
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Coding the Idea, The Algorithm Lab
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Going Live, Deploying to Live Trading
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