Risk-Based Hurricane Recovery of Highway Signs, Signals and Lights

Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems University of Virginia, Charlottesville

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Risk-Based Hurricane Recovery of Highway Signs, Signals and Lights

presented to

Virginia Department of Emergency Management

by the

Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems

October 6, 2000


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Project TeamVirginia Department of Transportation

Travis Bridewell Lynwood Butner

Mac Clarke Perry Cogburn Jon DuFresne

Stephany Hanshaw Steve Mondul

Gerald VenableVirginia Transportation Research Council

Wayne Ferguson


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Project Team (cont.)Students

Ryan FinsethClare Patterson

TJ ZitkevitzLinn Koo

Richie Moutoux

AdvisorsProfessor James H. LambertProfessor Yacov Y. Haimes


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Overview of Presentation• Introduction

• Overview of Project and Goals

• Retrofitting and Upgrading Options

• Spares and Reserves Options

• Priority Setting

• Recommendations


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Motivation• Why a Recovery Plan is Needed

– Restore mobility and save lives– Solicit aid from FEMA and FHWA– Estimate $30-60 billion if categ.4 hit Hampton Rds,

Richmond, and NoVa (Source: 97 Post Hurricane Recovery Workshop, Insurance Institute)

• Current Plan– Allows inventory only for routine damage– Absent rationale for recovery priorities


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Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Categories

Category Winds (mph) Damage1 74-95 Minimal2 96-110 Moderate3 111-130 Extensive4 131-155 Extreme5 >155 Catastrophic


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Hurricane Andrew Impacts Dade County, FL

• Replaced 2,000 signal heads at 400 intersections

• Replaced signs

– 7 Overhead structure signs

– 45 Multipost ground mounted signs

– 169 Single post ground mounted signs

– 5 Span-wire attached signs

• Compared with ‘Groundhog Storms’ (1998)

– 40 Signal heads

– No damage to signs reported

• Storage of these items is associated with scheduled maintenance or upgrades to the system

Source: Fr. Adofo Fassrainer, FDOT-D6 OPERATIONS


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Hurricane Floyd

• Hurricane Floyd hit Suffolk District in mid-September, causing significant flood damage

• 56 deaths made Floyd the deadliest US hurricane since Agnes in 1972

• Roads did not receive much wind damage, but flooding closed many roads in Virginia


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Hurricane Floyd Damage


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Suffolk District

• Interstates 64, 264, 464, 564, and 664

• US Routes 13, 17, 58, 60, 258, 460

• State Routes 44, 164, and 168


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Project Objective

The goal of the effort is to aid the Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT) in

planning and management for the hurricane recovery of highway signs, lights, and signals

through assessment of the risks, costs, and benefits of alternatives.


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Project Structure

E q u ip m e n t U p gra de S p a re s an d R e serves P rio rity S e tt ing

H u rrica ne R e co ve ry P lan


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Equipment Upgrade


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Wind Speed Assumptions

• Not all equipment experience maximum sustained wind speed

• Most equipment experience less than maximum sustained wind speed

• Few equipment experience wind speeds greater than max sustained wind speed


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0

0.002

0.004

0.006

0.008

0.01

0.012

0.014

0 50 100 150 200

Maximum Wind Speed (mph) experienced by equipment

Pro

ba

bil

ity

De

ns

ity

of

Su

ffo

lk D

istr

ict

Eq

uip

me

nt

I

II

V

III

IV

Distributions of Damage


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Three Upgrade Levels

Ultimate Wind Velocity (miles per hour)

R0 86 117 121 99 111 99R1 96 127 131 109 121 109R2 106 137 141 119 131 119R3 126 157 161 139 151 139

*The data in the first row is from Hurricane Damage Assessment for Major Structures in Hampton Roads, VDOT.

Upgrade level Increase in Maximum Wind Speed Equipment Can WithstandR1 10R2 20R3 40


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Additional Percentage of In-Place Cost due toRetrofitting to a Particular Level

EquipmentType

Design Velocity(miles per hour)

Unit Cost ofNon-Upgraded

Equipment 10 mph 20 mph 40 mph

Shoulder-mounted Signs

70 $170 17% 35% 82%

Cantilever Signs 95 $40,000 13% 26% 60%Two pole span

Signs95 $75,000 13% 26% 60%

Traffic SignalSystems

85 $129,500 14% 29% 67%

High-MastLights

95 $120,000 13% 26% 60%

Roadway Lights 85 $76,000 14% 29% 67%

Upgrading Costs*

*communicated with Vince Roney, Suffolk District


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0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Percentage of Installed Cantilever Signs Damaged

An

nu

al C

ost

of

Up

gra

din

g C

anti

leve

r S

ign

s ($

)

I

II

III

IV

V

Upgrading Trade-off Analysis


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Upgrading Cost Trade-off

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000

Replacement Cost for Damaged Cantilever Signs ($)

An

nu

al U

pg

rad

ing

Co

st f

or

Can

tile

ver

Sig

ns

($)

I

II

III

IV

V

Annual Upgrade Cost Categ. III Replacement Cost

$50,000 $1,900,000$300,000 $600,000

Cost Savings $1,300,000


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Spares and Reserves Options


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Spares and Reserves

• Motivation– Currently VDOT and others prepare for low

level damage– New spares and reserves leads to faster, cheaper

post-hurricane recovery

• Objective– Assess the costs and benefits of inventory

options


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Spares Options Options in terms of %

of damageable equipment currently installed on roadways

Ground Signs

0% 20% 40% 60%

Status Quo

2

4

6

Op

tio

nAverage Percent in Storage

Equipm

ent C

ateg

ory

Equipm

ent T

ype

Perce

ntag

e of

Tota

l Equ

ipm

ent

Curre

ntly

in S

tora

ge

Inve

ntor

y Alte

rnat

ives

Perce

ntag

e in

Sto

rage

Status Quo 1 2 3Ground Signs - Small 6x48 6% 25% 30% 35%

9x24 23% 25% 30% 35%12x24 31% 25% 30% 35%12x36 20% 25% 30% 35%15x21 27% 25% 30% 35%18x24 9% 25% 30% 35%18x30 2% 25% 30% 35%18x36 6% 25% 30% 35%24x24 35% 25% 30% 35%24x30 42% 25% 30% 35%24x36 35% 25% 30% 35%30x30 17% 25% 30% 35%

Ground Signs - Large 36x36 5% 25% 30% 35%36x45 1% 25% 30% 35%36x48 9% 25% 30% 35%48x48 9% 25% 30% 35%48x60 5% 25% 30% 35%

Sign Poles 4"x4"x16' 4% 25% 30% 35%6"x6"x18' 5% 25% 30% 35%

Signs Overhead - panel 120x212 0% 2% 4% 6%Overhead Sign Mounts 2 Pole Span (1 way travel, 2-3 lanes)0% 2% 4% 6%

Cantilever 0% 2% 4% 6%Bridge Mount 0% 2% 4% 6%


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Spares Cost Analysis

• Pre Hurricane Costs– Cost to increase current level – Annualized cost under low demand– Yearly storage cost

• Post Hurricane Costs– Affected by hurricane severity– Costs under moderate and high demand


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Post Hurricane Costs

Option 3

Option 2

Option 1

I (low damage, mod demand)

II (moderate damage, mod demand)

III (extensive damage, mod demand)

IV (extreme damage, high demand)

V (catastrophic damage, high demand)

$

$

$

$

$


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Spares Cost Assumptions• Signs will be produced in-house unless under

extreme demand (Paul Balderson)– Sign shops provide signs at cost

• All other equipment will be purchased from contractors– Shops not equipped to produce cantilevers, signals,

and lights• Cost of purchasing equipment increases by 2-3 times

under heightened demand


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Data Obtained SourceCurrent balance on hand (Signs) PIMS ReportCurrent balance on hand (Signals) Willie Byrum – Suffolk District Traffic Signal InventoryProduction cost of signs PIMS report, Paul BoldersonCost of storage (signs) Capstone Report (1997-1998)Cost of sign posts Travis Bridewell’s Hurricane Preparedness Committee

reportPurchase cost of overhead mount, signal, and lighting equipment

David Williams, BLC Construction, Inc.

Replacement costs – temporary and permanent - for signs(overhead, cantilever, shoulder) and signals

Travis Bridewell’s Hurricane Preparedness Committee report

Replacement costs of high mast and regular lights (purchase and installation costs combined).

Guidance Manual, Hurricane Preparedness Manual, VDOT

Cost to install sign, signal, and lighting equipment Sylvia Taylor, Baldwin Line Constr. Of MD, Inc. Time to manufacture signs Paul Balderson, Tour of Culpeper Regional Sign ShopTime to manufacture and deliver overhead mount, signal, and lighting equipment

David Williams, BLC Construction, Inc.

Time to install sign, signal, and lighting equipment. Sylvia Taylor, Baldwin Line Constr. Of MD, Inc.

Obtained Inventory Data


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0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0 100 200 300 400 500

Post-Hurricane Cost ($1000)

Ann

ual P

re-H

urri

cane

Cos

t ($1

000)

Category I

CategoryII

CategoryIII

CategoryIV

CategoryV

Option 3

Status Quo

Option 2

Option 1

Investment in Spares vs. Post Hurricane Cost (Ground Signs)


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Time to Recovery under Spares Options

• Reduction of Time to Recovery– Spares and reserves

– Reduction in manufacture and delivery time

– Immediate replacement of equipment

• Data used in calculation– Manufacture and delivery time– Installation time


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0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0 10 20 30 40

Time to Recovery (weeks)

Ann

ual I

nves

tmen

t ($1

000)

Category 1

Category 2

Category 3

Category 4

Category 5

Option3

Status Quo

Option2Option1

Investment in Spares vs. Time to Recovery (Ground Signs)


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Priority Setting


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Features of Priority Setting

• Importance of roads and intersections based on critical facilities and condition of road network

• Restoring or replacing damaged equipment

• Critical facilities are those necessary for a community’s well-being


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Classification of Critical Facilities

E lem

M iddle

H ig h

Special Ed .

Public S chools

College s

Educatio n

Post O ffices

C ity Hall

Adm inistratio n

Courts/Jails

Special F ac .

G overnm ent

Coast G uard

Navy

Nationa l G uard

Arm y

A ir F orce

M ilitary

Hospitals

F ire S tation s

Police S tation s

Evac Shelters

Rescue Squa d

Em ergency

VDO T

Public W ork s

W ater

Power

G as

Utilit ie s

O peration s

G rocery S tores

M alls

G as S tations

Com m . Centers

Com m erce

T V S tations

Radio S tation s

Phone Co .

Com m unicatio n

A irport s

Seaports

T rain S tation s

Bus S tation s

T ransportatio n

Critical F acilit ie s


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Critical Facilities


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Geographic Information Systems

• Build on an existing GIS database of VDOT roads

• Network model in Arcview to create prioritization tool

• Using Arcview’s Network Analyst for optimization


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Electronic Road Map

• Two sources for electronic road maps

• VDOT’s “Network Level Basemap” – Used to establish road system from which

network model will be created

• Census maps obtained from UVA Library – Used for geocoding addresses


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Example of Arcview Map

Suffolk District

Hampton RoadsEmporia

Williamsburg

Eastern Shore


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Facility Data

• Working with the Hampton Roads Planning District Commission to get data on locations of critical facilities

• HRPDC’s databases are much more complete and accurate than any data collection we can do

• Data acquisition and formatting is ongoing


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Norfolk Facility Data


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Phases of Preparedness

E m e rg e n cy

O p e ra tio ns

S h o rt T e rmD a ys - W e e ks

T ra nsp o rta tion

M ilita ry

C o m m e rce

M e d ium T e rmW e e ks - M o n ths

G o ve rn m e nt

E d uca tion

L o n g T e rmM o n th s - Y e a rs

R e co ve ry o f H ig h w ay N e tw o rk

….

….

….


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From Map to Network Model

• The Arcview maps need translation to a mathematical model

• Data consists of intersections, road segments, and various classes of critical facilities

• Mathematical model is in terms of nodes, arcs, and levels of supply and demand


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Optimization of Recovery

Roads Recovered

Ac

ce

ss

to

Fa

cil

itie

s


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Recommendations

Consider three remedies:

1) Upgrading equipment

2) Increasing spares and reserves

3) Priority setting of roads for recovery


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Sample of Recommendations• Upgrading overhead (two pole span) signs on critical routes (10% of

installed base = 35 signs )– Assume pay 3.3% of total cost annually– Replacement cost per sign = $75,000

* Over 30 years

Percentage of damaged signson critical routes

Policy Level(mph)

AnnualCost*

I II III IV V

Noupgrading

0 $0 2 6 14 27 37

Moderate 10 $11,000 1 3 10 21 31

Aggressive 40 $50,000 0 0 2 8 15


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Sample of Recommendations (cont.)• Spares for ground signs in Suffolk District

– Assume pay 5% of total cost annually (12,000 installed)

* Over 20 years

Post Hurricane Cost(In $1,000)

Policy StorageLevel

Annual Prehurricane Cost *

(In $1,000)

I II III IV V

Noincrease

17% 5 22 53 95 381 453

Moderate 25% 8 0 7 51 263 335

Aggressive 35% 10 0 0 17 167 240


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Recommendations (cont.) Notice the problem: Hurricanes can cause region-

wide damage to traffic equipment Consider short (days or weeks), medium (months),

and long-term (years) aspects of recovery Short-- Hospitals, Medium-- Schools, Long-- All

Evaluate different upgrading or spares policies by assessing the cost before a hurricane strikes and the damage, cost, and recovery time after a hurricane


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Recommendations (cont.) Adapt spares and reserves to hurricane-center and

other seasonal forecasts Perform impact analysis using the various storm

categories Adopt the models for estimating the costs and

effectiveness of upgrading and spares policies Consider upgrading only routes critical to a

community’s well-being in a hurricane


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Recommendations (cont.) Consider critical facilities throughout the road

network in setting priorities for recovery Consider the following facilities as critical:

emergency, education, government, military, operations, commerce, communications, and transportation.

Maintain a web site for support of recovery of signs, signals, and lights.

Risk-Based Hurricane Recovery of Highway Signs, Signals and Lights

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