Risk Based Estimating Self Modeling

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Risk Based Estimating Self Modeling. Ovidiu Cretu, Ph.D., P.E. Terry Berends, P.E. David Smelser. All known and unknown risks are equally weighted Allows little control over the project cost/schedule Reactive. Clear recognition of project’s threats and opportunities - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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  • Risk Based EstimatingSelf Modeling

    Ovidiu Cretu, Ph.D., P.E.Terry Berends, P.E.David Smelser

  • All known and unknown risks are equally weightedAllows little control over the project cost/scheduleReactive Clear recognition of projects threats and opportunitiesAllows a reasonable control over the project cost/scheduleProactiveThreat 1Traditional EstimatingRisk Based EstimateBase EstimateBase EstimateContingencyOpportunityThreat 2

  • Engineers Estimate

    Identify Quantify RisksLikelihood of Occurrence [%]Impact [$,Mo]Risk Based Estimate

    Monte Carlo Method

    Chart1

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