Risk-based Asset Management Strategies for Climate ... · Storm drainage infrastructure risk...
Transcript of Risk-based Asset Management Strategies for Climate ... · Storm drainage infrastructure risk...
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Risk-based Asset Management Strategies for Climate & Earthquake Events
September 26, 2018
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The challenge for local governments…
Earthquakes Flooding
Wildfire
Landslides
Debris Flows
Tsunamis
Wind Storms Extreme Weather
Delta Subsidence Find resources to: • Identify and characterize hazards • Assess risks • Communicate results • Develop safely • Maintain infrastructure • Plan for emergency response &
recovery
The challenge for local governments…
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Natural Hazards Management Program
• Understand hazards & risks using proactive approach • Reduce risks to life, infrastructure & environment • Ensure development policies limit future risk • Encourage shared responsibility & community involvement • Maintain a geospatially-referenced hazard database • Liaise with scientific, academic & government organizations to
create and follow best practices
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Resilience planning
• Risk assessments for natural hazards
• Natural hazard risk mitigation strategies
• Hazard and environment development permit areas
• Development standards for infrastructure
• Long-range asset management planning
• Increased community awareness
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Creek Hazards • Extensive creek network that poses a risk to public safety,
municipal assets and private property
• Climate change projections indicate an increase in intensity and duration of rainfall events
• Aging storm drainage infrastructure is vulnerable
• Creeks work as a system – upstream and downstream impacts
• Current development policies limit risk exposure; this risk reduction program is to manage existing risk
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Storm drainage infrastructure risk assessment Hazard
Characterization
Hazard Analyses Hydrologic, Debris Flood, Debris Flow Assessment
Hazard Scenario Modelling & Mapping
Culvert Overflow (Blockage)Assessment
Risk Analyses
Risk Reduction Options & Costs
Risk Management Web Application (DNVHIT)
Risk Reduction Options Assessment
Risk Ratings (Creek and Asset)
Asset Characterization
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Debris Geohazard Risk Assessment & Mitigation Options (BGC, 2017)
• Assessed risk to public safety, property and assets (roads and storm sewer)
• Decision matrix prioritized creeks based on risk, ownership and feasibility
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Implementation Plan Creeks have been sorted into 5 implementation categories: 1. Mitigation works already in progress, via Build Canada grant 2. DNV infrastructure only – managed via Asset Management
Plan 3. Rural/remote creeks - managed via Creek Hazard
Development Permit Area 4. Urban creeks – managed via proposed 10 year work plan 5. Lower risk creeks (to be re-evaluated in 2027)
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Disaster Resilience by Design
We live in earthquake country
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Disaster Resilience by Design
Regional Earthquake Hazards shallow earthquake (~12% in 50-year)
deep ‘benioff zone’ earthquake (~60% in 50-year)
subduction earthquake (~12% in 50-year)
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Disaster Resilience by Design Hazard Potential- Scenario Earthquakes
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Disaster Resilience by Design
A Profile of Earthquake Risk Hazard Potential
ground shaking
landslides
liquefaction
Vulnerability buildings
economy infrastructure
people
Impacts & Consequences
building damage economic loss lifeline services injuries & social disruption
Disaster Resilience adaptation mitigation emergency management
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Disaster Resilience by Design
Seismic Hazards
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Disaster Resilience by Design
Physical Vulnerability
Pre-Code (1973) Low Code (1973-1990) Moderate Code (1990-2005) Moderate Code Special (1990-2005) High Code (2005-2010) High Code Special (2005-2010)
Seismic Design Level
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Disaster Resilience by Design
Analysis of Damage Potential
None & Slight minor damage to walls & supports
Moderate
localized failure of walls & supports
Extensive & Complete
permanent structural failure & imminent danger of collapse
Likelihood of damage
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Disaster Resilience by Design
Building Performance – M7.3 Georgia Strait
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Disaster Resilience by Design
Public Safety
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Disaster Resilience by Design
Lifeline Resilience
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Disaster Resilience by Design
Economic Security
$4.4M/day ~90%
DNV Gross Daily Revenue ~$5M per day
= loss
~ $4.4 M per day of business-related losses
lost wages & business income rental & relocation costs
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20 P . P .
Who’s covering your assets?
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Long Term Vision
1.Metro Vancouver wide 2.British Columbia wide 3.Canada wide 4.North America wide 5.World wide
Risk pools can handle major events Building financial resilience takes time
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Disaster recovery and financial risk
• Acting on new information: – Uninsured municipal assets ($100B) – Risk of loss in major quake event (e.g.$10B to $30B) – Municipal exposure unfunded ($2B to $6B)
• Good planning = assess your risks and establish reserves • Better planning = assess your risks and pool with others
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Final Thought
We pay $15 Billion in insurance premiums annually on things that “may” come and nothing on major events that “will come”
There are over 100,000 government entities in
North America. Approximately 85% receive some form of insurance coverage from a risk
pool and pay approximately $15 Billion in premiums annually.
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Risk Control Elements
Debris Control Structures Trash Racks
Channel Upgrades Culvert Replacements
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Risk Control Elements (cont)
Debris Basins Log Crib Structures
Swales