Risk-based Adaptation

IPCC Framing Risk and Vulnerabilities

Risk-based ApproachConsiders the risks, (climate change and other risk drivers of change e.g.socio-economic, environmental, demographic, technological, etc.) to the natural or human system that have been identified as priority areas of concern. ,– A Risk –based approach identifies the important risk factors and considers the uncertainty associated with each; and provides a basis for identifying a broad range of adaptation options to address the identified risks; and

Assesses the adaptation options relative to identified objectives 1 and success criteria 2, and on considering the risks and opportunities (potential synergies) associated with their implementation

Advantages• Consistent with effective decision-making practices in IM/China – improved

management of risks and supporting socio-economic development and growth• Recognises and integrates uncertainty – changes in climate, impacts,

vulnerability and adaptation options and their implementation• Allows for different and evolving knowledge and data – review towards

continuous improving

• Structured framing that can promote good decision-making

• Evidence-based providing the basis for effective communication of decisions and informing subsequent planning cycles

Advantages• Supports review and evaluation of progress – establishing a monitoring

and evaluation programme, supported by objectives and success criteria

• Supports identification and prioritisation of research, data generation and knowledge gaps

• Supports consultation – transparent information based on credible and tractable evidence

ChallengesData and information to support the approach• Understanding what data and information are available and how it can

support the process – qualitative and quantitative

Knowledge sharing and dialogue are critical – engagement

Adopting a learning and continuous improvement approach to adaptation planning (consistent with the 5-year planning process); and

Communicating that approach to gain the support of those needed to implement and to be involved in subsequent planning cycles

Adaptation Plans

International Examples

Plan StructureScope – understanding the consequences of a changing climate; adaptation actions, including skills, tools and specific actionsReference to timescale for when action needed • Short-term (next 5-10 years)• Medium-term (next 10-25 years)• Long-term (next 30-40 years)Actions normally are identified with reference to an agreed set of principles • Actions informed by monitoring and evaluation• Actions integrated into existing development and implementation practices• Actions at the appropriate scale• Actions developed in partnership with interested parties and should avoid

restricting actions by others• Actions should build broader resilience and consider potential links

(conflicts and synergies) with other objectives (e.g., mitigation)

Adaptation Planning at Different LevelsAdaptation plans can and do exist a different levels (e.g., national, provincial/autonomous region and cities), and at the sector level

Although adaptation is delivered local

• Dependent on actions at other scales

• Local action can have cascading consequences at higher spatial scales with implications being felt immediately or years later

• Mal-adaptation is possible and likely if ill-informed, signals are not present or contradictive or done in isolation

The nature and scope of these plans reflect the specific circumstances (including capacity and maturity of adaptation planning and context There are similarities in their structure: vision, context, challenges, drivers of change, key impacts and actionsPurposes and roles at different levels reflect responsibilities and capacity to act

Adaptation Planning at Different LevelsNational adaptation planning• Focus on coordination and enabling actions, including those required for

adaptation action at the subnational and local levels of government (and the private sector)– Provision of information, policy frameworks to guide decisions, to enable and promote

action in sectors and resources for national development, protect vulnerable groups and provide and facilitate coordination of budgets and financial mechanisms

– Actions for national government ministries/departments – national policy, procurementSubnational (provincial/autonomous region) adaptation planning• Complementary role to that at the national level• More strongly reflects the specific context, including subnational priorities and

a focus on adaptation actions in the context of specific socio-economic and environmental priorities and needs

Sector planning• Focus is on adaptation and resilience of sector as a system rather than a

political geographic area• Draws from (and can influence) the national and subnational adaptation plans,

as well as plans at the local level

Example: Subnational LevelPurpose – clear statement of the purpose, vision and intention of the planChallenges addressed (scope) – priority areas for action and government commitmentsReasons for concern – expected changes in climate and implications for the priority areasFramework for planning – decision-making principles and roles and responsibilitiesStrategic directions for managing key risks – strategies for future action across government and for engaging others (e.g., local government, businesses, industry and communities) Actions for managing key risks – actions to be taken throughout the subnational region and in key sectorsNext steps – implementation, reviewing actions and plan renewal

Example: Sector Adaptation

Description of the sector – what is covered and the links to other sectorsChallenges – those that the sector are facing such as the nature of the sector and operational challengesKey policies and drivers – identify opportunities and challenges these provide for actionImpacts of climate change – identify threats and opportunities as a result of current climate and projected changesActions – identify the action, whose responsible for delivery, timescales and the specifics of the deliverable

ChallengesPlanning• Need for integrated land-use and whole system planning• Balancing competing demands within and across plansFinance• Increasing resilience can be costly and need to look at other options

(co-benefits and synergistic in terms of meeting other socio-economic goals)

Competing demand for land• Other demands for development and flood and drought protection,

mitigation, biodiversity and soil conservationSoil management• Water logging, erosion and soil management practices not

consistent with existing and projected climate

Policies and DriversNational climate change adaptation strategy and plan• Relevant elements within the national adaptation strategy and planLand use policies• Existing land-use policies and there expected developmentsRural land use study and requirement for a land use strategy• Study to provide integrated evidence base on the potential

contributions of Scotland’s rural land to delivering sustainable economic growth and addressing other societal challenges

• Need for a sustainable land-use strategy Related policies• Waste plan – affecting location, choice and design of related

infrastructure

Impacts of Climate ChangeIncreased flooding, coastal erosion, warmer temperatures and changes in precipitation intensity and timing• Wide ranging impacts on land and how it is and can be used• Direct impacts – erosion of soils, increase in incidents of land instability

and landslips, loss of organic matter and changes in patterns of nutrient recycling

• Competition for land and increase tensions between land use objectives • Changes in land management practices• Implications for biodiversity, risk of damage and loss of cultural heritage

sites• Implications for infrastructure will impact on where future

developments can occur• Implications for meeting mitigation targets (e.g., potential release of

carbon through changing land use

Relevance of this Structure for NX

Considering this type of structure:• Description of area/sector of interest • Challenges • Key policies and drivers • Impacts of climate change (current and future)• ActionsFrom your perspectives, what are the: • Strengths of this structure?• Weaknesses of this structure?• Gaps that would need to be reflected in the plan?