Risk assessment of natural hazards at the Icelandic Meteorological Office – an overview

Sigrún Karlsdóttir

Eiríkur Gíslason

Trausti Jónsson

Evgenia Ilyinskaya

Content

The role of the Icelandic Meteorological Office (IMO)

Natural hazards in Iceland

Methodology

Risk assessment activities at IMO

Snow avalances, slush flows, landslides, debri flows and rockfall

Volcanic eruptions

Floods

The role of the Icelandic Meteorological Office

The main purpose of IMO is to contribute towards increased security and efficiency in society by:

Monitoring, analyzing, interpreting, informing, giving advice and counsel, providing warnings and forecasts and where possible, predicting natural processes and natural hazards.

Issuing public and aviation alerts about impending natural hazards, such as volcanic ash, extreme weather and flooding

Atmosphere

Water, snow, glaciers

Earth Ocean

Geophysical processes

Natural Hazards in Iceland 1965-1974

1965-71 Sea Ice

1970 Poisonous ash

(Hekla eruption)

1972 Grid-breaking storm

1973 Eruption in Heimaey in

the vicinity of a settlement

1973 Hurricane

1974 Devastating avalanche

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Natural Hazards in Iceland 1975-1995

1975-1984 Volcanic unrest in NE-Iceland

1976 Earthquake damage

1976-1977 Sea flooding

1980 Hekla eruption (small)

1981 Hurricane

1983 Slush flood

1990 Sea flooding

1991 Hekla eruption (small)

1991 A severe hurricane

1995 Devastating avalanches in January and October

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Natural Hazards in Iceland 1976-2011

1996 Volcanic eruption in Grímsvötn and a large jökulhlaup

1998 Volcanic eruption in Gjálp

2000 Two earthquakes of significant size

Hekla eruption (small)

2004 Volcanic eruption in Grímsvötn (small)

2006 Floods in South and West Iceland

2008 Earthquake causing exstensive damage

2010 Volcanic eruption in Eyjafjallajökull

2011 Volcanic eruption in Grímsvötn

2011 Jökulhlaup

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photo: Þ.M. Pétursson

Direct economic loss due to the largest natural catastrophes in Iceland since 1973

Date Location Type ofevent

Loss (millj. USD)

Proportionof GNP

1973 Vestmannaeyjar Eruption 255 60‰

20.12.1974 Neskaupstaður Avalanche 16 3−4‰

22.01.1983 Patreksfjörður Slushflow 0.4 <1‰

09.01.1990 S- and W-Iceland Ocean flood 3.4 <1‰03.02.1991 S- and W-Iceland Storm 21.7 3‰

15.01.1995 Súðavík Avalanche 9.2 1−2‰

26.10.1995 Flateyri Avalanche 11.2 1−2‰

06.11.1996 Skeiðarársandur Jökulhlaup 17.2 2‰

17.06.2000,21.06.2000

S-Iceland Earthquake ~38 4‰

29.05.2008 S-Iceland Earthquake ~71 5‰

Apr/May 2010 Eyjafjallajökull Eruption ? ?

Total, 1990−2008

~188

Fatal accidents in natural catastrophes in Iceland 1901−2009

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Type of accident Fatalities

Accidents at sea thousands

Storms on land hundreds

Avalanches 169

Landslides and rock falls 27

Volcanic eruptions 2

Earthquakes 1

Snow avalances, slush flows, landslides, debri flows and rockfall

After the two catastrophic snow avalanches in 1995 the previous hazard zoning methodology was totally revised. Among key fetures in the resulting method are:

IMO does the hazard zoning

The hazard zoning is risk based

Individual risk is chosen to by the definative term/unit

A level of acceptable risk is defined

The methodology is in good agreement with the WMO guidelines for Comprehensive Risk Assessment for Natural Hazards

The method can form a basis for the assessment of other natural hazards.

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Risk acceptance decisions

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Material cost/benefit assessments replacement costs

Human lossExcess mortality - risk

behavior individual risk - aggregate

risk

Infrastructure disturbance Local - total the 0.5% GNP-level funds - insurance

Short- or long-termSudden events – slow changes need different acceptance levels

Volcanic activity in Katla and Eyjafjallajökull

There has allready been made a comprehensive assessment of hazard due to volcanic activity in Katla and Eyjafjallajökull.

This work of Gudmundsson et al. (2005) includes:

Map showing estimated frequency of supglacier eruptions

Maps showing known and likely floodways

Maps showing estimated extent of reference floods and arrival times as a results of dynamical modelling

Evacuation plans

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Assessment of risk due to volcanic activity for the whole of Iceland

The Icelandic government is organizing a long term to assess the risk do to volcanic activity for the whole of Iceland.

A plan of a three years initial phase has been layed out and preperation is under way:

An appraisal of current knowledge where scenarios for each volcano will also be described for improved preperdness

Initial assessment of floods related to volcanic eruptions (jökulhlaup)

Initial assessment of explosive eruptions in Iceland

Initial assessment of volcanic eruptions that may cause extensive damage to property, i.e. eruption in vicinity of urban areas and international airports in Iceland

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Floods

Floods in South and West Iceland in December 2006 brought attention to flood hazard

A three year project on mapping of inundated areas was finalized in November 2010

Historical information gathered

Mapping of inundated areas

Ph.D. thesis of Emmanuel P. Pagneux

Floods in the ölfusá basin, Iceland: A geographic contribution to the assessment of flood hazard and management of flood risk

This work is considered to be a pilot project in flood hazard assessment

The EU Floods Directive (2007/60/EC) will possibly be implemented in Iceland later this year

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21.12.2006Peak discharge VHM64: 1840 m³/s

Source and literature

WMO (1999) Comprehensive Risk Assessment for Natural Hazards

WMO/TD No. 955, 92 p.

International Strategy for Disaster Reduction

http://www.unisdr.org/

Living with Risk: A global review of disaster reduction initiatives (2004)

Global assessment report on disaster risk reduction (2009)

http://www.unisdr.org

Terminology, new version (2009)

http://www.unisdr.org/eng/terminology/terminology-2009-eng.html

Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015: Building the Resilience of Nations and Communities to Disasters (UN, 2005)

http://www.unisdr.org/we/coordinate/hfa

Mitchell, J.K. (ed. 1996): The long road to recovery: Community responses to industrial disaster. UN University Press, 307 p.

Mitchell, J.K. (ed. 1999): Crucibles of hazard: Mega-cities and disasters in transition. UN University Press, 535 p.

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ÞÓR – Coast Guard Vessel

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THANK YOU

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