Risk Assessment and Risk Management

The Hague, Netherlands, 3 November 2014

Janani VivekanandaHead of Environment, Climate Change and Security Programme

International Alert

1. The compound nature of risks

2. Uncertainty and a few certainties

3. Challenges of applying risk assessments to Fragile States

4. How to prioritise actions

Seven Compound Climate-Fragility Risks

adelphi

Syria: Drought – displacement – urban pressures

Source: Years of Living Dangerously 2014

Fragility Spectrum

Resilience states:

• have the capacity and legitimacy of governing a population and its

territory.

• can adapt to change and uncertainty.

• build constructive relationships with their citizens, maintain

functioning institutions, and provide basic services.

• can absorb shocks and handle stresses peacefully while

maintaining political stability and preventing violence.

…the flipside

• If climate change is a ‘risk multiplier’ which interacts with pre-existing

social, economic and political risks, making peace and stability harder to

achieve,

• then addressing the pre-existing root causes of vulnerability will help build

resilience to climate change and contribute to development, peace and

stability.

1. The compound nature of risks

2. Uncertainty and a few certainties

3. Challenges of applying risk assessments to Fragile States

4. How to prioritise actions

5. Conclusion

Uncertainties and Certainties:

Elements of Risk

Adapted from IPCC 2007

Vulnerability

SensitivityAvailability and importance of the affected resource

ExposureRate and variation of climate change

Adaptive CapacityContext and impact specific

Dependent on climate change impacts and environment Dependent on climate change impacts and environment

Dependent on governance and stability Dependent on governance and stability

1. The compound nature of risks

2. Uncertainty and a few certainties

3. Challenges of applying risk assessments to Fragile States

4. How to prioritise actions

Understanding complexity

N. Shresta/International Alert

1. The compound nature of risks

2. Uncertainty and a few certainties

3. Challenges of applying risk assessments to Fragile States

4. How to prioritise actions

How to prioritise: some guiding questions

• 1. Does the intervention directly or indirectly affect resilience?

• 2. Are the outcomes of the intervention sensitive to weather?

• 3. Does the intervention have long-term effects?

• 4. Is it difficult to reverse or retrofit the intervention or its effects?

• 5. Are the stakes high?

Conclusion

Janani VivekanandaHead of Climate Change and SecurityInternational Alert, Londonjvivekananda@international-alert.org+44 207 627 6823www.international-alert.org