Risk and negotiation
Transcript of Risk and negotiation
“Negotiation is a process which takes place
when two or more interdependent parties who
have different needs and goals, work together
to find a mutually acceptable & beneficial
outcome”
‘Often involves both parties making concessions’
What is Negotiating?
Traditional Negotiation
Commitment (extreme position)
Final offer
Last Offer
Final last offer
Commitment (extreme position)
Final offer
Last offer
Final last offer
Threat to walk
Threat to walk
Outcome
PERSUASION ( convincing the other party )
GIVING IN
COERCION ( threatening )
PROBLEM SOLVING
INSTRUCTION ( employer / employee relationship )
ARBITRATION ( seeking fairest 3rd party ruling )
Alternatives to Negotiating?
Getting too emotional
Focus on personalities, not issues
Not trying to understand the other person (too focused on
our own needs)
Wanting to win at all costs
Regard negotiations as confrontational
Why do negotiations fail?
A successful negotiator needs to be….
• Professional
• Confident, Relaxed, at ease
• Open, honest, sincere & credible
• Respectful of other peoples values
• Show empathy, and understanding
• Committed to a WIN:WIN result
• Continually enhancing their skills
7 Elements of a Negotiation
• Interests – What do people really want?
• Options – What are the sources to be gained?
• Alternatives (BATNA) – What will I do if we do not agree?
• Legitimacy – Always ask yourself, is that true?
• Relationship – Can I separate people from the problem?
• Communication – Am I listening effectively?
• Commitments – Have we considered the steps to
implementation?
Definition Measure of Success Advice
Interests Needs, concerns, goals
Satisfies parties’interests
Probe for interests; ask Why/Why Not?
Alternatives BATNA Better than your BATNA Improve your alternative before negotiations begin; make their alternative less appealing
Options All possibilities Expands the pie Separate option generation from evaluation and commitment
Legitimacy External criteria Established standards Criteria = sword/shield
Communication Exchange of info and thought
Message sent = message received
Tone-match to audience; advocate AND inquire
Relationship Connection between parties
Relationship improves or is not harmed
Be constructive; problem vs. people
Commitment Agreement to will/will not
Specific, firm, implementable
Use both process and substance commitments; not too early
7 Elements of a Negotiation
A Successful Negotiation
• Meets our Interests well, theirs acceptably, and others tolerably enough to be durable.
• Is the best of many Options.
• Is better than our BATNA.
• Is Legitimate, supported by objective criteria.
• Improves, or at least does not damage the Relationship.
• Is based on clear Communication.
• Identifies Commitments that are specific, firm, & implementable.
Preparation
Be briefed on the subject matter of the negotiation
Be clear about your objectives, what you are trying to achieve:
The LIM Model:
- Like to Achieve (most favoured option, ideal settlement)- Intend to Achieve (expected result, realistic settlement)- Must Achieve (fall back position, bottom line)
Work out your tactics and how best to put your case
Tryto figure out what the other parties objectives will be
Gather background information - personalities involved, power balance, attitudes etc.
Preparation Negotiators with high aspirations consistently outperform those with low
aspirations
By adopting a high aspiration base, negotiators create sufficient room to make and request the necessary concessions
High aspirations generate positive psychological energy and prevent a negotiator from being rigid and defensive
A high aspiration communicates confidence to the other party and generally prevents irrational negotiation behaviour
High aspirations require the other negotiating party to expend more energy in trying to lower these aspirations, thus not focusing on promoting its own aspiration
Preparation questions…
What is the reason?
What are the topics to be discussed?
What is my perception of the issue?
Perception on the other side?
What resources can I draw on?
What do I know about my company?
What do I know about the company negotiator?
Preparation questions…
What are our interests?
What are our common interests?
What are the opposing interests?
Why are they talking to me?
Why do they need something from me?
What prevents them doing it another way?
What is my baseline? What is an ideal win?
Prepare your baseline
Define your range
Starting position
Target – ideal scenario
Walkaway
BATNA*: your alternatives
*BATNA: Best Alternative To a Negotiated Agreement
Information Exchange
This is the single most important stage of negotiation. Both parties will be trying to find out and understand the other’s position and requirements
Successful negotiators ask twice the number of questions and spend over twice the amount of time acquiring and clarifying information than do average negotiators
Bargaining
Reject constructivelyDo not cause offence. “I’m afraid we can’t possibly agree to a reduction in the service charge, but there might be room for manoeuvre on the wording of clause16”.
Retain a constructive atmosphere
Note the moving base line: As each issue is agreed, acknowledge the fact, summarise it, and move on to the next point after you have noted the issue of agreement
Bargaining
Be firm on broad issues: Be flexible on specifics.
Look for the agreement signals: Certain words indicate that agreement is very close. -If….then….- Let’s put that in round numbers- Well, that’s hardly worth holding us up..
As soon as a number or term is mentioned by one party, you have begun to move out of information exchange and into bargaining....
Close & Settle
Your judgement…Is this the best and final offer? If yes…
List the agreement in detail
List the points of explanation, clarification and interpretation
Record agreed summary with all at the table
Re-start negotiations if any dispute over agreement
Tends to see negotiators as friends
Sees agreement as the goals prepared to make concessions to
cultivate the relationship
Is willing to trust the other side
Is willing to modify position at an early stage
Discloses “bottom line” early in discussions
Avoids contests of will on particular points
Concedes to pressure
Soft negotiator
Sees negotiators as opponents or adversaries
Sees victory as the goal
Demands concessions to establish a relationship
Tends to mistrust the other side
Is reluctant to alter position in any way
Misleads as to “bottom line”
Expects to win contests of wills
Applies pressure
Hard negotiator
Where do you sit…?
We all have certain tendencies influenced by our socialisation, our personalities, and above all by our managerial histories….
Do you rate yourself as ‘hard’; or ‘soft’?
Does your preference work for you?
The Avoider– Dislikes conflicts
The Compromiser– Fair-minded, interested in maintaining relationships
The Accommodator– Resolves interpersonal conflicts by resolving the other persons problem
The Competitor– Winning is all that matters
The Problem Solver– Seeks to find the underlying problem, brainstorms to solve
Negotiator types…
You are one of ten people at a board table, each person sitting across from one another
Someone comes in the room and says “I will give $1k to the first person who can persuade the person sitting across from them to come and stand behind his/her chair.”
How would you negotiate this situation?
Question…
The Avoider– I don’t want to play, look foolish
The Compromiser– Offers $500 to both and runs to the other side
The Accommodator– Runs to the other side, negotiates later
The Competitor– Sits tight, demands the other person moves
The Problem Solver– Suggests both get behind each others chair, thinks both can make $1k
The results…
Separate personality and issues: – don’t see the issues as necessarily reflecting in any way on your
personality – hard or soft. An important point should be made with conviction, and without fear as to the negotiator’s image
See the other side’s case unemotionally: – try to be objective about your case, and the case of your opponent. This is
the best way to serve your client.
Avoid confrontation: – confrontation is the weak point of hard and soft negotiators alike. The
hard negotiator will find that (s)he is required to lose face to accept a compromise, or allow negotiations to fail when it is not in client’s best interests that they should do so. The soft negotiator is more likely to succumb to pressure from a more aggressive counterpart. Stay calm!
The winning combination…
Advice
Be unconditionally constructive.
Approach a negotiation with this:
‘I accept you as an equal negotiating partner; I respect your right to differ; I will be receptive and open-
minded.’
Brainstorm 10 key skills that succesful negotiators need
List your key skills and note the reason why each of your 10 skills is crucial to you as a negotiator..
10 mins!
In groups of 3…
Key negotiator skills…
Planning skills
Integrity
Think under
pressure
Verbal clarity
Common sense
Gain respect Leadership
Tact
Open Mind Standards
Product knowledge
Confidence Persistence
Insight
List all your personal strengths as a negotiator.
List your personal areas for development.
10 mins!
Individually…
Interpreting Body LanguageFaltering eye contactFaltering eye contact
• Boredom, fatigue or lying
Intense eye contactIntense eye contact• Fear, confrontation, anger or trying to intimidate
RockingRocking• Fear or nervousness
Still postureStill posture• Discomfort or nervousness
Prolonged silenceProlonged silence• Disinterest
FidgetingFidgeting• Disinterest or nervousness
Touching the faceTouching the face• Nervousness, lack of confidence or submission
NoddingNodding• Agreeing, willing to compromise
Shaking head or turning awayShaking head or turning away• Frustrated, in disbelief or disagrees
Develop negotiation consciousness
Successful negotiators are
assertive and challenge
everything. They know that
everything is negotiable.
Become a good listener!
Negotiators are detectives.
They ask probing questions
and then remain silent. The
other negotiator will tell you
everything you need to know
– all you have to do is listen.
Be Prepared!
Gather as much pertinent information prior to the negotiation.
- What are their needs? - What pressures do they feel? - What options do they have?
Doing your homework is vital to successful negotiation.
Aim High!
People who aim higher do better.
If you expect more, you’ll get more. Successful negotiators are optimists.
A proven strategy for achieving higher results is opening with an extreme
position. Sellers should ask for more than they expect to receive and buyers
should offer less than they are prepared to pay.
Be Patient!
This is very difficult for some people.
We want to get it over with.
Whoever is more flexible about time has the advantage. Your patience can be devastating to the other negotiator if they are in a hurry
Never negotiate without options.
If you depend too much on the positive outcome
of a negotiation, you lose your ability to say “No”
Stay calm, confident and curious!
Stay calm at all times and
remember to use a positive
tone.
Emotion cause people to be subjective and can cloud a person's judgment.
Cultivating curiosity allows you to relax
the situation, focus on the important
issues.
In Australia, only 44% of business survive 4+ years
Poor risk management is attributed to most failures
Some Fun Facts…
Risk is a chance of losses
Risk is the possibility of unfortunate occurrence
Unforeseen events, eventualities
Occurrence of economical loss
Unpredictability
The probability of an unwanted or unavoidable event
Risk may have a positive or negative impact on the business
What is Risk?
Strategic
Technical
Compliance and/or Regulatory and/or legal
Operational
Financial
Market and/or Competition
Career and/or People
Reputational
Systemic and/or Political
Types of Risk
Risk Management…
…is the art and science of thinking about what could go wrong, and what should be done to mitigate those risks
in a cost-effective manner.
The formal process of identifying and controlling the risks
facing a business
The probability of an undesired event causing damage to an
asset
There are three steps to Risk Management:
1) Risk Identification
2) Risk Assessment
3) Risk Control (and/or mitigation)
What is Risk Management?
Once we know the severity and likelihood of a given risk, we can
answer the question:
Does the benefit of mitigating a risk outweigh
the cost of doing so?
A 4 quadrant framework will help us determine level of risk…
The Risk Framework
A• Ignored
B• Nuisance
C• Insurable
D• KILLER!
The Risk Framework
Minor Consequence
Major Consequence
Low Likelihood
High Likelihood
Quadrant A – Ignorable Risks
The Risk Framework
• Risks with relatively minor consequences…
• …with a relatively low likelihood of occurrence…
• …and a minor consequence as a result.
• Not worth spending a huge amount of time worrying about.
Example:
The possibility of getting a flat tyre on your way to a routine meeting. Assuming you service your car regularly and you drive on maintained roads, a
flat tyre might cause you to be late to a meeting once every 10 years.
Quadrant B – Nuisance Risks
The Risk Framework
• Little things that often seem to go wrong, simple solutions
• Impacts are easy to minimize through behaviour change
• Usually solved with common sense approachExamples:
o The printer runs out of toner while you’re preparing the proposal for the customer meeting that starts in 30 minutes. Solutions: don’t wait until the last minute, and always keep extra toner on hand
o Your lead engineer gets the flu three days before the scheduled release date of your first customer beta. Solutions: create a development process free of dependencies on any one person, and build in contingencies for the fact that almost everything seems to take twice as long and cost twice as much as you originally expect.
Quadrant C – Insurable Risks
The Risk Framework
• Risks that could have major consequences but are relatively
unlikely to happen are often insurable.Examples:
• Property & Casualty Insurance can mitigate losses from fire, theft, and natural disasters;
• Key Executive Insurance can mitigate losses from the death or incapacitation of a management team member;
• Liability Insurance can mitigate lawsuits resulting from product defects or on-site injuries to visitors;
• Errors & Omissions Insurance can mitigate lawsuits from disgruntled customers; and
• Directors & Officers Insurance can mitigate lawsuits in cases of negligence, harassment, or discrimination.
Quadrant D – Company Killer Risks
The Risk Framework
• Risks with both a relatively high likelihood of occurrence and
major consequences;
• These risks can sink startups and Fortune 500 companies alike;
• The survival of your venture depends on your ability to identify
and mitigate the company killers; and
• Individually, they may seem manageable, but collectively, they
represent a true challenge.
Company Killers & The 90% Rule
The Risk Framework
1. There’s a 90% chance that you’ve identified a genuine market
need;
2. There’s a 90% chance that your addressable market is as big as
you think it is;
3. There’s a 90% chance that you can actually implement your
innovation;
4. There’s a 90% chance that you can figure out how to sell it for
more than it costs you to make it;
5. There’s a 90% chance that you have assembled the right
management team to do the job;
The Risk Framework
6. There’s a 90% chance that you manage to stay one step ahead
of the competition;
7. There’s a 90% chance that you don’t get sued into bankruptcy;
8. There’s a 90% chance that you won’t get buried in regulatory
red tape;
9. There’s a 90% chance that you don’t run out of money; and
10. There’s a 90% chance that nothing else goes wrong.
Company Killers & The 90% Rule
Most startup killers fall into these categories:
Market Risks
Competitive Risks
Technology & Operational Risks
Financial Risks
People Risks
Legal and Regulatory Risks
Systemic Risks
Killer Risks
In your project groups, you are to identify one killer risk from each
category….
As a group we will mitigate the risk.
Question…
Market RisksRefers to whether or not there is sufficient demand for what you have to
offer at the price you set.
Many inventors have died penniless, clinging to the belief that the market would beat a path to their door if they designed a better mousetrap.
Competitive RisksEvery venture has more competitors and fewer competitive advantages
than it thinks.
Figure out what you do better than all of your competitors — whether it be price, features, quality, or some other advantage — and focus on
maintaining your leadership in that category
Technology & Operational RisksTechnology and operational risks broadly cover everything having to do with execution: • Can your team finalise the product design on a limited R&D budget?• Will your product work as intended? • Can you find reliable vendors? • Can you manufacture it? • Can you optimise the logistics of product distribution?• Can you create an effective product support infrastructure?
Financial RisksThe end of the road for any business is running out of cash
For startups, the biggest financial risk stems from not having a Plan B in case investors and lenders say no
If you do succeed at raising capital, the next trick is to figure out how to start generating enough revenues to cover your costs before you run out of
money.
Financial Risks
A number of things can affect the cash flows of operating ventures:
• Credit risk - customers can default on your invoices
• Commodity price risk - the cost of your raw materials could increase
• Interest rate risk – could raise the cost of working capital
• Asset price risk - a plunge in the value of stocks or real estate you
pledged as collateral could cause your bank to cut your credit lines
• Exchange rate risk -
• A strengthening dollar can reduce the net profits;
• A weakening dollar can increase costs of your offshore
manufacturing operations
People RisksPeople are, at the same time, the most crucial and least predictable
element of any business
The right combination of experience, contacts, and temperament among the founding team can vastly increase a venture’s odds of success.
Failure to recruit, motivate, and retain the right partners can spell doom.
Companies fall apart when it develops major rifts: when one faction wants to move one way, while others seek a different result.
Legal & Regulatory RisksThe list of possible problems with legal or regulatory is almost endless: tax complications; disputes from poorly structured agreements; lawsuits filed
by a competitor for intellectual property dispute.
Retain the right lawyers, one for corporate matters and another for IP matters. You must keep your lawyers informed of what’s happening in the
business so that they can address potential problems
Systemic RisksSystemic risks are those that threaten the viability of entire markets, not
just a single firm within a market
Examples: A spike in the cost of fuel is squeezing the entire passenger airline industry. The availability of low-cost skilled labour in emerging
economies, a suspected case of mad cow disease can affect beef sales for months or years
Risk Management PlanA pragmatic risk management plan is straightforward in concept
- 7 headings -
Risk Factor
Risk Type
Likelihood
Consequences
Mitigation Tactics
Mitigation Costs
Status
Risk Factor: List anything you can think of that could cause substantial harm to your business.
Type: e.g. market risk, competitive risk, technology & operational risk, etc. Assigning a type can suggest who might be best qualified to manage that particular risk
Likelihood: Think of the relative likelihood of manifesting this particular risk factor. Simple descriptors like high, medium, and low should be sufficient.
Consequences: Describe what would happen to the company if this risk factor manifests itself.
Mitigation Tactics: List the things you can do either reduce the likelihood or minimize the impact of the consequences if this risk factor manifests itself.
Mitigation Costs: For each mitigation tactic, think about the implementation cost.
Status: Once you have assembled the first six columns, you need to decide which mitigating tactics, if any, you need to implement.
Risk Management Plan
Focus on a tough customer
problem rather than a fun
technology.
Investors hate technology solutions
looking for a problem, due to the
high risk of no customers. If the
customer need is obvious and
large, the calculated risk is in the
quality of your solution, your team,
and marketing. These are risks that
can be mitigated with the right
resources
Schedule frequent updates to your
solution to maintain growth.
Assuming that you can quickly
recover after competitors kill your
cash cow is not a smart risk. You
need a plan to regularly obsolete
your own offerings, with
continuous innovation, before
customers send you negative
messages. It’s hard to recover from
a tarnished image
Plan to deliver a family of products, rather than a one-hit wonder.
Even a great initial product, with no follow-on, won’t keep you ahead of competitors very long. A smarter risk is to build a plan, with associated greater resources, that will put you in position to expand your product line and keep one step ahead of competitors.
Implement a modern real business model.
Providing everything free, and growing users to the max for years is a high risk approach requiring deep pockets. Risk is more manageable with subscriptions and even freemium pricing. Even non-profits need revenue to cover their costs, and continue to
provide services.
Find a strategic partner to accelerate growth.
Everyone wants to forge ahead all alone, and kill every competitor in sight. Almost always, risks are more predictable when you use collaboration for access to new customers, economies of scale, and shared resources. Finding win-win deals is a manageable risk, versus a battle with one winner.
Use metrics to measure results of marketing initiatives.
Too many entrepreneurs put all their resources in one big
make-or-break effort they can’t measure, or they count on
word-of-mouth and viral marketing, which are totally
unpredictable. Prepare marketing plans that come
from both inside and outside the box, but have milestones
and measurements.”
Trying to save money by recruiting family members, or hiring only interns, is a bad risk. Great team members may take more time to find, and cost you stock options, but a qualified and highly motivated team that stretches your budget is a good calculated risk.
Recruit the best team members and provide
incentives
Build your business with minimum outside funding.
More money is not more likely to solve your problems or reduce your risk. Investors know that startups with too much money fail just as often as those
with not enough. Strategically, you need a plan to survive through organic growth, with outside funding to effectively accelerate scaling.
Don’t rely on conservative forecasts to reduce risk.
Investors don’t fund conservative forecasts, nor wildly optimistic ones, since both imply a lack of commitment or homework. Opportunity and revenue
projections based on deep market and customer analysis are a smarter risk. Measurements and business intelligence along the way also mitigate risk.
Be a leader rather than following in the footsteps
of another.
Many entrepreneurs think they can reduce and predict
risk by emulating previous winners. But stepping into a
crowded space to steal customers is more risky
than attracting new customers looking for a solution. Customers like
leaders, not followers.