RISK AND MANAGEMENTFINAL PROJECT

-By Md. Shafiqur Rahman

RISK AND MANAGEMENT

Tropical cyclone

A tropical cyclone is a rapidly rotating storm system characterized by a low-pressure center, strong winds, and a spiral arrangement of thunderstorms that produce heavy rain. Depending on its location and strength, a tropical cyclone is referred to by names such as hurricane, typhoon, tropical storm, cyclonic storm, tropical depression, and simply cyclone.

LIST OF BANGLADESH TROPICAL CYCLONES(POST 1960’S) 30–31 October 1960: A severe cyclonic storm hit Chittagong, Noakhali, Bakerganj,

Faridpur, Patuakhali and eastern Meghna estuary, with winds speed up to 210 km/h. The storm surge reached a height of 4.5-6.1 m. Casualty: about 10,000 people, 27,793 cattle . Losses: 568,161 houses destroyed (including 70% houses in Hatiya). Also, two large ocean-going ships ran aground in the shore, and 5-7 vessels capsized in Karnaphuli River.

9 May 1961: A severe cyclonic storm hit Bagerhat and Khulna. It had wind speeds of up to 161 km/h. The storm surge reached 2.44-3.05 m. Casualty: 11,468 people (mostly in Char Alexander), 25,000 cattle. Damages: The railway tracks between Noakhali and Harinarayanpur were damaged.

26–30 October 1962: A severe cyclone hit Feni. Maximum windspeed was 161 km/h. The storm surge was 2.5-3.0 m. Casualty: about 1,000 people, many domestic cattle.

28–29 May 1963: A severe cyclonic storm devastated Chittagong, Noakhali, Cox's Bazar and coastal islands of Sandwip, Kutubdia, Hatiya and Maheshkhali. The storm surge reached 4.3-5.2 m in Chittagong. Maximum windspeed was up to 203 km/h and at Cox's Bazar 164 km/h. Casualty: 11,520 people, 32,617 cattle. Damages: 376,332 houses, 4,787 boats, and standing crops.

11–12 May 1965: A strong cyclone hit Barisal and Bakerganj. The windspeed reached a maximum of 162 km/h. The storm surge was 3.7 m. Casualty:19,279 people (out of that, 16,456 in Barisal).

14–15 December 1965: A strong cyclone hit the coast near Cox's Bazar and Patuakhali. The storm surge rose up to 4.7-6.1 m. The windspeed was up to 210 km/h in Cox's Bazar. Casualty" 873 people. Damage: 40,000 salt beds destroyed.

LIST OF BANGLADESH TROPICAL CYCLONES(POST 1960’S) 1 October 1966: A cyclone hit Sandwip, Bakerganj, Khulna, Chittagong, Noakhali and Comilla.

Maximum strong surge was 4.7-9.1 m. The maximum wind speed was 146 km/h. Total people affected: 1.5 million people. Casualty: 850 people, 65,000 cattle.

7 November-13 November: The 1970 Bhola cyclone hit the entire coast of Bangladesh (then East Pakistan). Most affected were Chittagong, Barguna, Khepupara, Patuakhali, north of Char Burhanuddin, Char Tazumuddin and south of Maijdi, Haringhata. The official death toll was 500,000 but the number is likely to be higher. Damages include destruction of approximately 20,000 fishing boats, and also property and crops. Total loss of cattle reached more than one million. More than 400,000 houses and 3,500 educational institutions were destroyed. Maximum windspeed reached about 222 km/h. Maximum storm surge was about 10.6 m.

5–6 November 1971: A cyclone hit coastal areas of Chittagong. 28–30 November 1971: A cyclonic storm hit the coast near the Sundarbans. Maximum wind

speed was 97–113 km/h. The storm surge reached 1 m. Low lying areas of Khulna town inundated.

6–9 December 1973: The coastal areas near the Sundarbans were hit by a cyclone, accompanied by storm surge. Coastal areas near Patuakhali and nearby islands were submerged under the tidal bore.

13–15 August 1974: A cyclonic storm hit Khulna. Maximum wind speed reached 80.5 km/h. Casualty:600 people.

24–28 November 1974: A cyclone struck the coastal areas near Cox's Bazar and Chittagong, including the offshore islands. Maximum wind speed reached 161 km/h. The storm surge was up to 2.8-5.2 m. Casualty: 200 people, 1000 cattle. Damages: 2,300 houses destroyed.

9–12 May 1975: A strong cyclone pummeled Bhola, Cox's Bazar and Khulna. Maximum wind speed was 96.5 to 112.6 km/h. Casualty: 5 people.

9–12 May 1977: Khulna, Noakhali, Patuakhali, Barisal, Chittagong and offshore islands were hit by a cyclone. Maximum wind speed was up to 112.63 km/h.

LIST OF BANGLADESH TROPICAL CYCLONES(POST 1960’S) 14–15 October 1983: A strong cyclone hit the coastal islands and chars near Chittagong and Noakhali.

Maximum wind speed reached 122 km/h: Casualty: 43 people. 6 fishing boats and a trawler lost, more than 150 fishermen and 100 fishing boats went missing Damages: 20% of the aman rice crops in the affected regions were destroyed.

5–9 November 1983: A cyclone hit Chittagong, Cox's Bazar coast near Kutubdia, St Martin's Island, Teknaf, Ukhia, Moipong, Sonadia, Barisal, Patuakhali and Noakhali. The maximum wind speed reached 136 km/h. The storm surge was 1.52 m. Casualty:300 fishermen with 50 boats missing. Damages:2,000 houses destroyed.

24–25 May 1985: A severe cyclone hit Chittagong, Cox's Bazar, Noakhali and coastal islands (Sandwip, Hatiya, and Urirchar). Maximum wind speed at Chittagong was 154 km/h, at Sandwip was 140 km/h, at Cox's Bazar was 100 km/h. The storm surge reached a height of 3.0-4.6 m. Casualty:11,069 people, 135,033 cattle. Damages: 94,379 houses and 74 km of road, and embankments destroyed.

8–9 November 1986: A severe cyclonic storm hit the coastal island and chars near Chittagong, Barisal, Patuakhali and Noakhali. Maximum windspeed was 110 km/h at Chittagong and 90 km/h at Khulna. Casualty: 14 people. Damages: 972 km² of paddy fields were inundated; Schools, mosques, warehouses, hospitals, houses and buildings were destroyed at Amtali upazila in Barguna District.

24–30 November 1988: A severe cyclonig storm struck Jessore, Kushtia, Faridpur and coastal islands of Barisal and Khulna. The maximum windspeed was 162 km/h. The storm was accompanied by a storm surge of 4.5 m at Mongla Port. Casualty: 5,708 people, and numerous wild animals at The Sundarbans (deer 15,000, Royal Bengal Tiger 9), cattle 65,000. Total damage to crops reached Taka 9.41 billion.

29–30 April 1991: The 1991 Bangladesh cyclone hit Bangladesh late 29 April night. The storm originated in the Indian Ocean and reached the Bay of Bengal coast after 20 days. The diameter of the storm was close to 600 km. The maximum wind speed (observed at Sandwip) reached 225 km/h. At other places, the maximum wind speed was reported as follows: Chittagong 160 km/h, Khepupara (Kalapara) 180 km/h, Kutubdia 180 km/h, Cox's Bazar 185 km/h, and Bhola 178 km/h. (The NOAA-11 satellite estimated the maximum wind speed to be about 240 km/h at 1.38 pm on 29 April). The storm made landfall near the coast north of Chittagong port during the night of the 29th April. The maximum storm surge height reached about 5 to 8 m. Casualty: 150,000 people, 70,000 cattle. Damages: loss of property was estimated at about Tk 60 billion.

LIST OF BANGLADESH TROPICAL CYCLONES(POST 1960’S) 31 May-2 June 1991: A cyclone hit the coastal islands and chars near Patuakhali,

Barisal, Noakhali and Chittagong. Maximum wind speed reached 110 km/h. The storm surge was 1.9 m.

29 April-3 May 1994: A severe cyclonic storm hit the coastal islands near Cox's Bazar. Maximum windspeed reached 210 km/h. Casualty: 400 people, 8,000 cattle.

21–25 November 1995: A severe cyclonic storm hit the coastal islands near Cox's Bazar. The maximum wind speed was up to 210 km/h. Casualty: 650 people, 17,000 cattle.

16–19 May 1997: A severe cyclonic storm hit the coastal islands and chars near Chittagong, Cox's Bazar, Noakhali and Bhola districts. The maximum wind speed was 225 km/hour, and the storm surge reached 3.05 metres. Casualty: 126 people.

25–27 September 1997: A severe cyclonic storm hit coastal islands near Chittagong, Cox's Bazar, Noakhali and Bhola. It had wind speeds of up to 150 km/hour, and a storm surge of 1.83 to 3.05 metres.

16–20 May 1998 A severe cyclonic storm with windspeed of 150 km/hour struck coastal islands near Chittagong, Cox's Bazar, and Noakhali. The storm surge was from 1.83 to 2.44 metres.

19–22 November 1998: A cyclonic storm, with wind speeds up to 90 km/hour, and a storm surge of 1.22 to 2.44 metres. hit coastal islands and sand shoals near Khulna, Barisal, and Patuakhali.

November 15, 2007: Cyclone Sidr makes landfall on southern Bangladesh, causing over 2,000 deaths and severe damage.

CYCLONE SIDR

Cyclone Sidr (JTWC designation: 06B, also known as Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Sidr) was a tropical cyclone that resulted in one of the worst natural disasters in Bangladesh. The fourth named storm of the 2007 North Indian Ocean cyclone season, Sidr formed in the central Bay of Bengal, and quickly strengthened to reach peak 1-minute sustained winds of 260 km/h (160 mph), making it a Category-5 equivalent tropical cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. The storm eventually made landfall in Bangladeshon November 15, 2007, causing large-scale evacuations. 3,447 deaths were blamed on the storm.

Save the Children estimated the number of deaths associated with the cyclone to be between 5,000 and 10,000, while the Red Crescent Society reported on November 18 that the number of deaths could be up to 10,000. International groups pledgedUS$95 million to repair the damage, which was estimated at $1.7 billion (2007 USD).

CYCLONE SIDR

CYCLONE SIDR On November 9, an area of disturbed weather developed southeast of

the Andaman Islands, with a weak low-level circulation near the Nicobar Islands. Initially moderate upper-level wind shear inhibited organization, while strong diffluence aloft aided in developing convection. Vertical shear decreased greatly as the circulation became better defined, and a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert was issued on November 11 while located a short distance south of the Andaman Islands. Around the same time, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) designated the system as Depression BOB 09. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) upgraded it to Tropical Cyclone 06B after Dvorak estimates indicated winds of 65 km/h (40 mph). Later that day, it intensified into a deep depression as it moved slowly north-westward.

The IMD upgraded the system to Cyclonic Storm Sidr early on November 12. The system then began to intensify quickly as it moved slowly northwestward, and the IMD upgraded it to a severe cyclonic storm later that day and a very severe cyclonic storm early the next day. On the morning of November 15, the cyclone intensified to reach peak winds of 215 km/h (135 mph) according to the IMD, and a peak of 260 km/h (160 mph) according to the JTWC best track. Sidr officially made landfall around 1700 UTC later that day, with sustained winds of 215 km/h (135 mph). It weakened quickly after landfall and the final advisories were issued early on November 16. The name Sidr was contributed by Oman; it is an Arabic name of a tree belonging to the genus Ziziphus, specifically the Ziziphus spina-christi. There is another saying that it is derived from the Sinhalese Language where "Sidr" means 'hole' or 'eye.

CYCLONE SIDRPREPARATIONS

As it intensified to a Category 4-equivalent cyclone on November 15, thousands of emergency officials were put on standby in eastern India and Bangladesh in advance of the storm's arrival. Forecast heights of the storm surge predicted by a numerical model developed by Dr. Hassan Mashriqui (Louisiana State University) was communicated to the emergency response authorities in Bangladesh, prompting a massive evacuations of low-lying coastal areas. A total of 2 million people in Bangladesh evacuated to emergency shelters. The Indian Metrological Department (IMD) also issued a cyclone alert for Orissa and West Bengal on November 14. In Bangladesh, an emergency cabinet meeting decided to withdraw weekly leave for the government officials to join the evacuation process. Over 40,000 Red Crescent volunteers were deployed to order residents in the 15 affected provinces into special cyclone and flood shelters. The main ports had been closed.

CYCLONE SIDRIMPACT

Coastal districts of Bangladesh faced heavy rainfall as an early impact of the cyclone. Dhaka and other parts of Bangladesh experienced drizzle and gusty winds. Total damages came close to $450 million.

Storm surges reaching up to a height of 3 metres (9.8 ft) were reported in the coastal areas of north Chennai in southern state of Tamil Nadu in India, triggering panic among the fishing community.

The damage in Bangladesh was extensive, including tin shacks flattened, houses and schools blown away and enormous tree damage. Some local officials have described the damage as being even worse than that from the 1991 cyclone. The entire cities of Patuakhali, Barguna and Jhalokati District were hit hard by the storm surge of over 5 meters (16 ft). About a quarter of the world heritage site Sunderbans were damaged. Researchers said mangrove forest Sunderban will take at least 40 years to recover itself from this catastrophe. Much of the capital city of Dhaka was also severely affected, as electricity and water service were cut and significant damage was reported there due to winds and flooding. The local agricultural industry was also devastated, as many rice crops — which have a December harvest — were lost.

At least 3,447 deaths have been reported. The hardest-hit area was Barguna, where 423 people were reported to have been killed, according to local officials. Patuakhali was also hard-hit, with 385 deaths reported. Most of the deaths confirmed thus far were due to the winds, although 13 of them have been as a result of capsized boats in the Faridpur district of Bangladesh. The head of the Red Crescent in Bangladesh expects the death toll to reach as high as 10,000. Over 3,000 other fishermen were reported missing on over 500 fishing boats.

CYCLONE SIDRDISASTER RESPONSE

Cyclone Sidr slammed the highly vulnerable low lying densely populated coastal areas of Bangladesh with heavy rain, winds of up to 120 miles/hr, and a storm surge. Sidr may be the strongest cyclone to hit the country since a cyclone killed over 143,000 Bangladeshis in 1991. Although, the death from Sidr number in the hundreds but damage to homes, crops and livelihoods could be extensive. Under a Cyclone Preparedness Program, volunteers evacuated at least 600,000 Bangladeshis in the path of the storm. Many are housed in 1,800 multipurpose disaster shelters built along the coast. Relief organizations distributed seven-day emergency disaster kits of food, blankets and clothing for evacuated families.

Since 1991, the donor community, including the US and EC, has supported disaster-preparedness to mitigate the impact of tropical storms and improve post-disaster relief and reconstruction. Cyclone walls planted within trees are in place to protect vulnerable areas from storm surges. Disaster shelters on stilts housing refugees plus early warning systems and timely evacuations appear to have greatly reduced the fatalities from Sidr. It did kill 3,447 people, but this was much less than the 140,000 that died in 1991.

CYCLONE SIDRCyclone victims lining up for aid boats in Bangladesh

Houses damaged by the cyclone.

CYCLONE SIDREFFECT ON SUNDERBAN

GOVT PROGRAMSDISASTER HOUSING FACILITIES

Building Shelter House Building Shelter House

AWARENESS PROGRAMS FOR PUBLIC

Through Text Books Demonstration of Book

AWARENESS PROGRAMS FOR PUBLICKEY PART-WARNING SYSTEM

Community Awareness Community Awareness

LAYERS OF AWARENESS PROGRAMME

a) Warningb) Shelterc) Rescued) First aide) Food and clothing

PUBLIC AWARENESS Public awareness is an integral and very

important part of cyclone preparedness activities for its successful implementation. Keeping this in view, the Government implements the following public awareness activities in various ways in the cyclone prone coastal areas:-

a) Public awareness through volunteers.b) Cyclone drills and demonstrationc) Film/ Video Shows/folk songsd) Publicity campaigne) Radio and Televisionf) Posters, leaflets and Bookletsg) Staging of drama

VOLUNTEERS Government now have 42675 active volunteers.

These volunteers are respected and becoming increasingly integrated and influential within their community and with the local government agencies. They exhibit a high level of commitment to their programme and readiness to meet the community requirements for better disaster preparedness. Since the inception of cyclone preparedness programme in 1972, a total of 178 depressions have formed in the Bay of Bengal out of which 20 intensified into a severe cyclonic storm. The programme faced all the situation with determination and courage and gradually achieved greater success in moving people to shelters and saving live and property of the coastal people.

CONCLUSION

710 km long coast line of Bangladesh with numerous off-shore islands are inhabited by 11 million people who are direct beneficiaries of the programme and they depend on Govt. Its devoted and committed volunteers are well organised to face any eventualities for saving lives and properties of their own communities. These extra ordinary volunteers team need to be supported for the very well being of the 11 million coastal people of Bangladesh

Thank You.

Source: various google searches